RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 075 1 Takhojama DENSITY_MINIMUM LADA - 075 2 Russia Larch 200 6021-15407 1690 1993 - 075 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 075012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 075031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1865 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 075032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1865 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 075041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 075042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 2 GAPS / 1810 1814 / 1855 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 075051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 075052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1885 1885 / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 075061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1894 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 075062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 075071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1762 1766 / 1864 1864 / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 075072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 5 GAPS / 1831 1835 / 1864 1864 / 1912 1912 / 1934 1934 / / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 075081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1852 1853 / 1965 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 075082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1852 1856 / 1934 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 075091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1919 1919 / 1939 1939 / 1952 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 075092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 075101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 075102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1867 1867 / 1920 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 075112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1789 1793 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 075121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1762 1763 / 1864 1864 / 1911 1911 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 075122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1885 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 075132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 075142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 075151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1869 1873 / 1985 1989 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 075152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 0.226 0.022 0.562 3.015 0.071 0.553 2 075012 1745 1993 249 0.214 0.020 0.363 4.769 0.076 0.413 3 075021 1813 1993 181 0.219 0.031 0.371 3.070 0.062 0.818 4 075022 1829 1993 165 0.240 0.030 -0.077 2.338 0.059 0.783 5 075031 1784 1983 200 0.190 0.019 0.636 4.030 0.074 0.507 6 075032 1778 1993 216 0.196 0.024 0.803 4.408 0.084 0.635 7 075041 1760 1993 234 0.252 0.028 1.990 11.081 0.086 0.257 8 075042 1754 1993 240 0.267 0.038 0.342 2.519 0.100 0.503 9 075051 1866 1993 128 0.220 0.023 -0.472 2.921 0.066 0.637 10 075052 1853 1993 141 0.231 0.029 0.421 3.305 0.072 0.721 11 075061 1832 1993 162 0.218 0.018 -0.411 3.201 0.063 0.456 12 075062 1829 1993 165 0.204 0.018 -0.313 2.718 0.070 0.495 13 075071 1727 1993 267 0.230 0.030 1.045 6.332 0.105 0.290 14 075072 1718 1993 276 0.227 0.036 1.559 7.969 0.119 0.181 15 075081 1810 1993 184 0.250 0.028 -0.373 2.541 0.060 0.760 16 075082 1804 1993 190 0.225 0.025 -0.629 3.318 0.065 0.711 17 075091 1690 1993 304 0.253 0.027 1.153 5.188 0.094 0.293 18 075092 1696 1909 214 0.258 0.033 0.789 5.055 0.089 0.519 19 075101 1846 1993 148 0.222 0.018 0.620 3.542 0.073 0.335 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 0.227 0.024 0.445 3.073 0.070 0.618 21 075111 1746 1993 248 0.233 0.019 0.138 3.438 0.061 0.469 22 075112 1746 1993 248 0.194 0.022 0.041 2.683 0.080 0.549 23 075121 1758 1993 236 0.197 0.022 0.093 2.835 0.086 0.522 24 075122 1768 1993 226 0.209 0.022 1.146 6.919 0.089 0.274 25 075131 1746 1993 248 0.226 0.022 0.781 5.894 0.078 0.448 26 075132 1793 1993 201 0.229 0.034 1.442 6.761 0.113 0.278 27 075141 1853 1993 141 0.203 0.023 0.849 4.836 0.076 0.459 28 075142 1827 1993 167 0.202 0.026 0.809 5.715 0.101 0.278 29 075151 1785 1993 209 0.165 0.017 0.414 3.707 0.091 0.290 30 075152 1810 1993 184 0.152 0.023 0.469 5.476 0.111 0.408 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1690 TO 1993 304 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 199 0.219 0.025 0.500 4.422 0.081 0.482 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.026 0.006 0.623 1.971 0.017 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 195 0.223 0.024 0.457 3.624 0.077 0.482 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 77 0.029 0.008 0.716 2.461 0.021 0.325 MINIMUM VALUE 127 0.152 0.017 -0.629 2.338 0.059 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 0.203 0.022 0.093 3.015 0.070 0.293 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.231 0.029 0.809 5.476 0.091 0.618 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 0.267 0.038 1.990 11.081 0.119 0.818 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.256 0.210 0.010 -0.263 2.944 -0.363 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.363 SERIES 075021 AND 075121 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 075021 AND 075052 141 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.017 0.143 0.283 0.242 0.246 0.243 0.181 0.168 0.157 SDEV 0.210 0.172 0.170 0.170 0.195 0.211 0.189 0.178 0.201 SERR 0.121 0.029 0.019 0.014 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.124 0.694 0.878 0.880 0.899 0.905 0.867 0.855 0.843 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.225 0.016 -0.088 2.975 0.045 0.652 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.076 -0.046 0.040 107 197 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.52 1.00 1.08 1.61 4.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.10 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 206. 81. 128. 167. 248. 304. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.650 0.589 0.539 0.589 0.532 0.538 0.562 0.539 0.493 0.494 PACF 0.650 0.288 0.149 0.265 0.054 0.115 0.169 0.038 -0.005 0.050 95% C.L. 0.115 0.156 0.183 0.203 0.224 0.240 0.255 0.271 0.285 0.296 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.541 0.356 0.158 0.064 0.279 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 1 0.06598336 0.02245388 0.00000000 0.21452138 2 075012 1 0.04704845 0.03116147 0.00000000 0.20823076 3 075021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048129 0.26258194 4 075022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047990 0.28001329 5 075031 1 0.03633582 0.02484936 0.00000000 0.18312120 6 075032 1 0.06185064 0.01907119 0.00000000 0.18136999 7 075041 1 0.04417174 0.00900543 0.00000000 0.23341596 8 075042 1 0.10810295 0.00705785 0.00000000 0.21357173 9 075051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036890 0.24420570 10 075052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051829 0.26791874 11 075061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019075 0.23350242 12 075062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023388 0.22369269 13 075071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013147 0.24781278 14 075072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010044 0.24052371 15 075081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040364 0.28690001 16 075082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032822 0.25637713 17 075091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012464 0.23481013 18 075092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025593 0.23168002 19 075101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006735 0.22729778 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026911 0.25416985 21 075111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013941 0.25070393 22 075112 1 0.11479840 0.00262897 0.00000000 0.11085836 23 075121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015978 0.17823581 24 075122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002111 0.21125391 25 075131 1 0.01323111 0.03516212 0.00000000 0.22435628 26 075132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012519 0.21685146 27 075141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017501 0.21519148 28 075142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007685 0.20911205 29 075151 1 0.03370641 0.00458927 0.00000000 0.14348850 30 075152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019644 0.17033786 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.072 0.258 3.738 0.071 0.135 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.083 0.555 7.611 0.076 0.226 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.083 0.439 3.414 0.062 0.500 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.079 0.708 4.460 0.059 0.486 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.085 -0.079 3.596 0.075 0.366 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.093 -0.095 2.771 0.084 0.369 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.098 2.567 16.997 0.086 0.101 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.100 1.470 8.997 0.099 -0.026 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.084 -0.015 2.457 0.066 0.451 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.082 0.003 3.105 0.074 0.332 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.070 -0.216 2.694 0.064 0.254 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.070 -0.308 3.485 0.070 0.199 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.129 1.784 8.848 0.108 0.189 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.162 2.196 10.738 0.124 0.155 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.070 -0.093 2.755 0.060 0.440 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.076 -0.303 3.409 0.065 0.392 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.100 1.064 4.784 0.094 0.232 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.112 1.189 6.671 0.088 0.437 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.082 0.547 3.396 0.073 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.081 0.699 4.023 0.071 0.341 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.071 0.444 3.785 0.060 0.273 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.080 0.093 4.016 0.079 0.108 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.102 0.081 3.436 0.088 0.372 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.104 0.759 5.063 0.089 0.311 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.098 0.842 6.287 0.078 0.440 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.143 1.348 6.040 0.114 0.245 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.105 1.042 5.194 0.075 0.391 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.130 1.050 6.043 0.103 0.252 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.097 0.452 3.518 0.091 0.217 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.133 0.920 7.707 0.112 0.221 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.096 0.647 5.301 0.082 0.291 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.024 0.729 3.068 0.018 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.089 0.551 4.020 0.077 0.292 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.024 1.047 2.873 0.021 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.070 -0.308 2.457 0.059 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.080 0.003 3.414 0.070 0.217 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.104 1.050 6.287 0.091 0.391 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.162 2.567 16.997 0.124 0.500 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 075012 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 075021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 075022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 075031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 075032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 075041 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 075042 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 075051 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 075052 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 075061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 075062 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 075071 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 075072 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 075081 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 075082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 075091 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 075092 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 075101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 075111 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 075112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 075121 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 075122 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 075131 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 075132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 075141 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 075142 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 075151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 075152 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.071 0.258 3.777 0.071 0.114 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.081 0.506 7.219 0.076 0.190 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.078 0.606 3.551 0.062 0.439 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.069 0.407 3.811 0.059 0.342 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.084 -0.056 3.617 0.075 0.348 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.085 0.094 2.938 0.084 0.234 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.097 2.475 16.361 0.086 0.088 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.098 1.359 8.425 0.099 -0.063 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.072 -0.099 3.255 0.066 0.280 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.081 0.045 3.139 0.074 0.317 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.062 -0.101 2.584 0.064 0.075 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.066 -0.174 4.149 0.070 0.110 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.128 1.984 9.751 0.108 0.163 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.161 2.320 11.363 0.124 0.142 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.062 -0.109 3.065 0.060 0.284 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.064 -0.142 3.419 0.065 0.139 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.097 1.006 4.502 0.094 0.185 18 075092 1696 1909 214 0.999 0.101 1.333 7.519 0.088 0.331 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.077 0.483 3.383 0.073 0.225 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.078 0.657 3.802 0.071 0.285 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.069 0.465 3.864 0.060 0.239 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.079 0.120 4.132 0.079 0.085 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.096 0.053 3.557 0.088 0.302 24 075122 1768 1993 226 0.999 0.089 0.767 6.458 0.089 0.075 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.096 0.828 6.409 0.078 0.424 26 075132 1793 1993 201 0.999 0.130 1.407 6.154 0.114 0.102 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.087 1.350 5.906 0.076 0.113 28 075142 1827 1993 167 0.999 0.107 1.032 6.284 0.103 -0.043 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.096 0.458 3.523 0.091 0.203 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.121 0.519 7.417 0.112 0.091 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.089 0.662 5.445 0.082 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.023 0.729 3.017 0.018 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.084 0.494 3.998 0.077 0.188 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.025 0.979 2.935 0.021 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.999 0.062 -0.174 2.584 0.059 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.072 0.053 3.523 0.070 0.102 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.097 1.032 6.458 0.091 0.285 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.161 2.475 16.361 0.124 0.439 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.175 0.113 0.005 0.123 3.635 -0.129 0.633 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 075021 AND 075121 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.633 SERIES 075041 AND 075042 234 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.032 0.173 0.259 0.258 0.261 0.250 0.187 0.169 0.135 SDEV 0.191 0.139 0.159 0.159 0.182 0.205 0.171 0.169 0.175 SERR 0.111 0.023 0.018 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.211 0.740 0.864 0.889 0.906 0.908 0.873 0.856 0.819 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.995 0.042 0.248 3.833 0.044 0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.232 0.147 -0.076 109 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.64 1.00 1.10 1.74 6.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.035 -0.084 0.003 -0.142 -0.054 0.063 -0.014 -0.089 -0.008 PACF 0.114 0.022 -0.091 0.022 -0.142 -0.031 0.087 -0.056 -0.093 0.013 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 0.114 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.082 0.021 -0.082 -0.008 -0.117 -0.083 -0.007 -0.014 -0.102 0.012 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.082 2 0.081 0.014 3 0.082 0.021 -0.085 4 0.083 0.021 -0.086 0.005 5 0.083 0.011 -0.083 0.015 -0.114 6 0.075 0.012 -0.090 0.015 -0.108 -0.073 7 0.076 0.013 -0.090 0.016 -0.108 -0.074 0.009 8 0.076 0.011 -0.093 0.017 -0.111 -0.073 0.012 -0.032 9 0.072 0.013 -0.102 0.004 -0.109 -0.084 0.013 -0.023 -0.115 10 0.075 0.013 -0.102 0.006 -0.107 -0.084 0.015 -0.023 -0.117 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1728.55 1728.48 1730.41 1730.19 1732.18 1730.17 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1730.55 1732.53 1734.22 1732.16 1734.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.082 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 0.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 100.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.082 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 075011 1 0.054 0.114 2 075012 1 0.052 0.190 3 075021 1 0.226 0.445 4 075022 1 0.118 0.342 5 075031 1 0.127 0.351 6 075032 1 0.074 0.235 7 075041 1 0.010 0.090 8 075042 1 0.026 -0.063 9 075051 1 0.126 0.282 10 075052 1 0.103 0.321 11 075061 1 0.009 0.076 12 075062 1 0.012 0.110 13 075071 1 0.027 0.163 14 075072 1 0.021 0.143 15 075081 1 0.095 0.285 16 075082 1 0.057 0.139 17 075091 1 0.043 0.185 18 075092 1 0.118 0.331 19 075101 1 0.068 0.230 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 075102 1 0.083 0.288 21 075111 1 0.082 0.242 22 075112 1 0.009 0.085 23 075121 1 0.107 0.303 24 075122 1 0.058 0.075 25 075131 1 0.196 0.425 26 075132 1 0.011 0.102 27 075141 1 0.016 0.113 28 075142 1 0.002 -0.043 29 075151 1 0.055 0.203 30 075152 1 0.009 0.092 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.066 0.195 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.056 0.126 MEDIAN 1 0.056 0.188 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.087 0.186 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.063 LOWER HINGE 1 0.016 0.102 UPPER HINGE 1 0.103 0.288 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.226 0.445 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.070 0.216 3.983 0.076 -0.023 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.079 0.595 7.715 0.085 -0.024 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.070 0.095 3.380 0.082 -0.087 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.065 0.105 3.871 0.072 0.008 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.079 0.194 3.312 0.088 -0.025 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.082 0.159 2.971 0.096 -0.032 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.096 2.433 15.993 0.091 -0.005 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.098 1.307 8.279 0.096 0.010 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.069 -0.290 3.601 0.078 -0.061 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.077 0.073 3.456 0.086 0.000 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.062 -0.084 2.575 0.067 -0.005 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.066 -0.106 3.885 0.075 0.000 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.126 2.035 10.277 0.117 0.000 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.159 2.363 11.720 0.134 -0.004 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.060 -0.186 3.008 0.070 -0.035 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.064 -0.155 3.649 0.071 -0.027 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.095 0.940 4.234 0.105 -0.017 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.096 1.366 7.870 0.102 -0.033 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.075 0.455 3.389 0.083 -0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.074 0.585 3.759 0.081 -0.001 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.067 0.740 4.937 0.070 -0.038 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.079 0.147 4.349 0.083 -0.003 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.092 0.040 3.097 0.103 -0.039 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.089 0.767 6.499 0.093 -0.017 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.087 0.539 5.152 0.097 -0.056 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.129 1.469 6.582 0.121 -0.001 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.086 1.328 5.880 0.081 -0.006 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.106 0.995 6.162 0.101 0.000 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.094 0.443 3.831 0.102 -0.024 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.120 0.491 7.145 0.119 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.087 0.635 5.485 0.091 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.023 0.743 3.017 0.017 0.022 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.081 0.473 4.109 0.087 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.026 0.901 3.127 0.024 0.032 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.060 -0.290 2.575 0.067 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.070 0.095 3.456 0.078 -0.032 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.096 0.995 6.582 0.102 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.159 2.433 15.993 0.134 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.184 0.109 0.005 0.108 3.698 -0.161 0.631 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.161 SERIES 075022 AND 075092 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.631 SERIES 075041 AND 075042 234 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.138 0.169 0.240 0.260 0.266 0.258 0.218 0.188 0.130 SDEV 0.155 0.145 0.155 0.151 0.165 0.199 0.162 0.163 0.167 SERR 0.090 0.024 0.018 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.567 0.735 0.851 0.890 0.908 0.911 0.892 0.871 0.813 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.996 0.043 0.151 3.812 0.048 -0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.259 0.154 -0.086 114 190 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.94 1.01 1.10 2.04 7.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.028 -0.093 0.043 -0.135 -0.036 0.094 -0.004 -0.096 0.018 PACF -0.063 0.025 -0.090 0.031 -0.129 -0.062 0.103 -0.017 -0.105 0.013 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.019 -0.089 0.029 -0.136 -0.039 0.092 -0.004 -0.096 0.012 PACF 0.001 0.019 -0.089 0.029 -0.134 -0.047 0.104 -0.031 -0.103 0.018 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 0.996 0.043 0.187 3.775 0.045 0.085 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.085 0.019 -0.085 0.010 -0.137 -0.043 0.087 -0.005 -0.095 0.003 PACF 0.085 0.012 -0.089 0.025 -0.139 -0.028 0.104 -0.047 -0.098 0.024 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.085 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES