RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS149T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 075 1 Takhojama DENSITY_LATE LADA - 075 2 Russia Larch 200 6021-15407 1690 1993 - 075 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 075012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1771 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 075031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1865 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 075032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1865 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 075041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 075042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 075051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 075052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1885 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 075061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 075062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 075071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 075072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1912 1912 / 1934 1934 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 075081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1852 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 075091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1919 1919 / 1939 1939 / 1952 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 075101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 075102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 075121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1762 1763 / 1864 1864 / 1911 1911 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 075122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1885 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 075132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 075142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 075151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 075152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1864 1864 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 7.607 0.647 -2.305 12.173 0.083 0.115 2 075012 1745 1993 249 7.174 0.730 -1.681 8.921 0.087 0.347 3 075021 1813 1993 181 6.369 0.687 -1.595 6.704 0.093 0.291 4 075022 1829 1993 165 6.709 0.599 -2.099 9.585 0.081 0.130 5 075031 1784 1983 200 6.757 0.793 -1.339 5.466 0.099 0.327 6 075032 1778 1993 216 6.861 0.946 -1.430 5.356 0.120 0.350 7 075041 1760 1993 234 7.806 1.067 -1.101 3.840 0.119 0.420 8 075042 1754 1993 240 7.682 1.204 -0.766 3.180 0.126 0.529 9 075051 1866 1993 128 6.681 0.543 -0.109 2.750 0.071 0.402 10 075052 1853 1993 141 7.130 0.600 -0.477 4.577 0.076 0.304 11 075061 1832 1993 162 7.332 0.610 -2.326 11.146 0.084 0.013 12 075062 1829 1993 165 7.257 0.563 -1.935 8.827 0.076 0.088 13 075071 1727 1993 267 7.453 0.996 -0.885 4.049 0.107 0.492 14 075072 1718 1993 276 7.038 0.911 -0.702 3.816 0.110 0.422 15 075081 1810 1993 184 8.079 1.120 -1.564 5.455 0.105 0.504 16 075082 1804 1993 190 7.765 1.053 -1.716 6.225 0.110 0.437 17 075091 1690 1993 304 7.229 0.871 -1.180 4.442 0.118 0.243 18 075092 1696 1909 214 7.007 0.952 -0.907 3.393 0.127 0.364 19 075101 1846 1993 148 7.040 0.731 -1.054 3.822 0.101 0.290 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 7.092 0.819 -1.089 4.765 0.101 0.402 21 075111 1746 1993 248 7.242 0.673 -1.624 8.655 0.088 0.275 22 075112 1746 1993 248 6.771 0.880 -1.233 6.170 0.101 0.533 23 075121 1758 1993 236 6.931 1.000 -1.059 4.335 0.137 0.202 24 075122 1768 1993 226 6.771 1.043 -0.973 3.367 0.177 0.000 25 075131 1746 1993 248 7.199 0.808 -1.502 7.113 0.103 0.333 26 075132 1793 1993 201 7.097 0.983 -1.281 4.960 0.138 0.221 27 075141 1853 1993 141 6.973 1.089 -1.726 5.794 0.167 -0.019 28 075142 1827 1993 167 6.427 1.265 -0.948 3.358 0.214 0.159 29 075151 1785 1993 209 6.513 0.854 -1.193 4.869 0.145 0.088 30 075152 1810 1993 184 6.524 0.912 -1.465 5.260 0.157 0.051 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1690 TO 1993 304 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 7.084 0.865 -1.309 5.746 0.114 0.277 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.423 0.197 0.508 2.427 0.033 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 198 7.066 0.875 -1.257 5.110 0.106 0.298 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 82 0.486 0.313 0.651 2.865 0.039 0.272 MINIMUM VALUE 127 6.369 0.543 -2.326 2.750 0.071 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 6.771 0.687 -1.624 3.840 0.088 0.130 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 7.257 1.000 -0.973 6.704 0.127 0.402 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 8.079 1.265 -0.109 12.173 0.214 0.533 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.522 0.135 0.006 -0.343 3.144 0.081 0.889 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.081 SERIES 075031 AND 075092 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.889 SERIES 075081 AND 075082 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.216 0.257 0.420 0.510 0.660 0.619 0.545 0.589 0.576 SDEV 0.427 0.215 0.208 0.178 0.128 0.150 0.190 0.153 0.143 SERR 0.247 0.036 0.024 0.014 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.692 0.824 0.929 0.960 0.981 0.980 0.973 0.977 0.975 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 7.217 0.647 -1.793 8.778 0.086 0.253 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.440 -0.196 2.084 70 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.27 1.01 1.06 1.33 8.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 206. 81. 128. 167. 248. 304. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.252 0.266 0.180 0.219 0.253 0.184 0.225 0.221 0.178 0.142 PACF 0.252 0.216 0.082 0.128 0.157 0.045 0.098 0.097 0.019 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.115 0.122 0.129 0.132 0.137 0.143 0.146 0.151 0.155 0.158 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.114 0.199 0.216 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104284 7.73801136 2 075012 1 0.90004450 0.03513428 0.00000000 7.07672501 3 075021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00553982 6.87290812 4 075022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00383926 7.02750683 5 075031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050856 6.80585527 6 075032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00536233 7.44007158 7 075041 1 2.01301646 0.02664014 0.00000000 7.35919762 8 075042 1 2.82930231 0.01777520 0.00000000 6.89744520 9 075051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00588843 7.06152105 10 075052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094937 7.17646408 11 075061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049939 7.35301113 12 075062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163387 7.37568521 13 075071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00799324 8.50030994 14 075072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00467077 7.65182972 15 075081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01194170 9.18955612 16 075082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00862444 8.58868694 17 075091 1 0.81699020 0.02250294 0.00000000 7.08324862 18 075092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00595578 7.64706850 19 075101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00568955 6.60850954 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 1 1.46570218 0.06385921 0.00000000 6.97453403 21 075111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261519 7.56748581 22 075112 1 4.47736311 0.00176730 0.00000000 3.14972544 23 075121 1 0.53708255 0.02774890 0.00000000 6.82187653 24 075122 1 0.40439805 0.04371527 0.00000000 6.66268206 25 075131 1 1.21432889 0.00725156 0.00000000 6.63741112 26 075132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234324 6.85360098 27 075141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00155927 6.86276674 28 075142 1 2.00758076 0.02177531 0.00000000 5.88063478 29 075151 1 0.80652493 0.06085200 0.00000000 6.42936802 30 075152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112302 6.60132885 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.085 -2.253 12.041 0.083 0.102 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.099 -1.732 9.496 0.087 0.296 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.099 -1.652 7.267 0.092 0.144 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.085 -2.297 10.873 0.080 0.051 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.117 -1.272 5.256 0.099 0.326 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.130 -1.461 5.406 0.121 0.239 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.131 -1.222 5.711 0.120 0.314 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.134 -1.211 6.197 0.129 0.252 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.074 -0.262 2.892 0.071 0.290 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.089 -0.849 5.710 0.081 0.278 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.090 -2.500 11.494 0.089 0.035 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.083 -2.204 9.793 0.081 0.088 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.115 -1.406 6.073 0.112 0.169 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.127 -0.973 4.770 0.115 0.340 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.118 -1.618 6.851 0.104 0.261 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.124 -1.717 6.899 0.110 0.292 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.123 -1.076 4.176 0.120 0.250 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.127 -0.873 3.724 0.126 0.250 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.099 -0.978 3.809 0.099 0.218 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.112 -1.096 4.837 0.101 0.354 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.090 -1.776 9.102 0.088 0.214 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.113 -1.733 8.060 0.101 0.343 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.153 -1.307 6.141 0.142 0.305 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.160 -1.380 6.014 0.175 0.099 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.107 -1.480 7.410 0.102 0.239 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.137 -1.409 5.153 0.138 0.223 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.155 -1.781 5.967 0.166 -0.019 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.187 -0.889 3.411 0.211 0.042 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.139 -1.567 7.037 0.153 0.112 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.151 -1.791 7.286 0.166 0.088 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.118 -1.459 6.629 0.115 0.207 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.027 0.491 2.358 0.033 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.118 -1.435 6.107 0.107 0.239 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.035 0.636 2.258 0.040 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.074 -2.500 2.892 0.071 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.099 -1.733 5.153 0.089 0.102 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.134 -1.096 7.410 0.129 0.292 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.187 -0.262 12.041 0.211 0.354 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 075011 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 075012 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 075021 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 075022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 075031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 075032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 075041 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 075042 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 075051 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 075052 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 075061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 075062 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 075071 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 075072 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 075081 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 075082 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 075091 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 075092 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 075101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 075102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 075111 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 075112 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 075121 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 075122 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 075131 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 075132 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 075141 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 075142 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 075151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 075152 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.084 -2.404 13.064 0.083 0.080 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.095 -1.990 10.844 0.087 0.237 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.095 -1.692 7.358 0.092 0.059 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.082 -2.326 11.657 0.080 -0.062 5 075031 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.098 -1.542 7.311 0.099 -0.002 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.123 -1.524 6.263 0.121 0.130 7 075041 1760 1993 234 0.999 0.124 -1.378 6.523 0.120 0.242 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.130 -1.276 6.656 0.129 0.198 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.070 -0.296 3.151 0.071 0.200 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.084 -1.211 7.278 0.081 0.194 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.090 -2.556 11.790 0.089 0.027 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.082 -2.291 10.232 0.081 0.061 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.109 -1.547 7.021 0.112 0.073 14 075072 1718 1993 276 0.999 0.118 -1.144 5.829 0.115 0.225 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.110 -1.734 8.177 0.104 0.139 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.117 -1.986 8.219 0.110 0.201 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.121 -1.104 4.277 0.120 0.223 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.123 -0.952 3.934 0.126 0.198 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.097 -1.049 4.077 0.099 0.181 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.109 -0.996 4.990 0.101 0.307 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.086 -1.942 10.001 0.088 0.145 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.109 -1.823 8.781 0.101 0.290 23 075121 1758 1993 236 0.999 0.148 -1.475 6.654 0.142 0.261 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.159 -1.455 6.168 0.175 0.093 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.106 -1.544 7.613 0.102 0.228 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.135 -1.355 5.117 0.138 0.198 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.154 -1.839 6.119 0.166 -0.039 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.187 -0.869 3.430 0.212 0.036 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.139 -1.600 7.177 0.153 0.099 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.150 -1.847 7.446 0.166 0.076 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.114 -1.558 7.238 0.115 0.143 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.027 0.502 2.527 0.033 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.110 -1.543 7.099 0.107 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.035 0.635 2.390 0.040 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.999 0.070 -2.556 3.151 0.071 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.095 -1.847 5.829 0.089 0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.130 -1.211 8.219 0.129 0.223 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.187 -0.296 13.064 0.212 0.307 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.567 0.120 0.006 -0.589 3.438 0.109 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.109 SERIES 075051 AND 075092 44 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 075151 AND 075152 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.285 0.272 0.399 0.520 0.664 0.632 0.553 0.598 0.590 SDEV 0.337 0.217 0.199 0.152 0.127 0.145 0.183 0.148 0.140 SERR 0.195 0.036 0.023 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.764 0.836 0.923 0.961 0.982 0.981 0.973 0.977 0.977 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 1.002 0.081 -2.121 11.109 0.084 0.075 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.480 -0.195 0.261 96 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.44 1.00 1.09 1.53 3.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.074 0.081 -0.031 0.044 0.039 -0.013 0.032 0.039 -0.037 -0.070 PACF 0.074 0.075 -0.042 0.044 0.039 -0.027 0.033 0.040 -0.054 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.069 0.095 -0.021 0.069 0.028 -0.026 0.009 0.064 -0.042 -0.051 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.069 2 0.063 0.091 3 0.066 0.093 -0.034 4 0.068 0.087 -0.038 0.064 5 0.066 0.088 -0.040 0.063 0.025 6 0.068 0.090 -0.042 0.067 0.028 -0.043 7 0.068 0.090 -0.043 0.067 0.027 -0.044 0.013 8 0.067 0.093 -0.044 0.063 0.029 -0.050 0.009 0.067 9 0.071 0.094 -0.047 0.064 0.033 -0.053 0.014 0.071 -0.060 10 0.068 0.097 -0.047 0.061 0.035 -0.050 0.012 0.076 -0.056 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2193.60 2194.14 2193.63 2195.29 2196.02 2197.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2199.26 2201.21 2201.82 2202.73 2203.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 075011 0 0.006 2 075012 0 0.056 3 075021 0 0.003 4 075022 0 0.004 5 075031 0 0.000 6 075032 0 0.017 7 075041 0 0.059 8 075042 0 0.039 9 075051 0 0.041 10 075052 0 0.038 11 075061 0 0.001 12 075062 0 0.004 13 075071 0 0.005 14 075072 0 0.051 15 075081 0 0.020 16 075082 0 0.040 17 075091 0 0.050 18 075092 0 0.039 19 075101 0 0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 075102 0 0.095 21 075111 0 0.021 22 075112 0 0.084 23 075121 0 0.068 24 075122 0 0.009 25 075131 0 0.052 26 075132 0 0.039 27 075141 0 0.002 28 075142 0 0.001 29 075151 0 0.010 30 075152 0 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.027 MEDIAN 0 0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.050 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.095 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 075011 1743 1993 251 1.000 0.084 -2.404 13.064 0.083 0.080 2 075012 1745 1993 249 1.000 0.095 -1.990 10.844 0.087 0.237 3 075021 1813 1993 181 1.000 0.095 -1.692 7.358 0.092 0.059 4 075022 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.082 -2.326 11.657 0.080 -0.062 5 075031 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.098 -1.542 7.311 0.099 -0.002 6 075032 1778 1993 216 1.000 0.123 -1.524 6.263 0.121 0.130 7 075041 1760 1993 234 1.000 0.124 -1.378 6.523 0.120 0.242 8 075042 1754 1993 240 1.000 0.130 -1.276 6.656 0.129 0.198 9 075051 1866 1993 128 1.000 0.070 -0.296 3.151 0.071 0.200 10 075052 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.084 -1.211 7.278 0.081 0.194 11 075061 1832 1993 162 1.000 0.090 -2.556 11.790 0.089 0.027 12 075062 1829 1993 165 1.000 0.082 -2.291 10.232 0.081 0.061 13 075071 1727 1993 267 1.000 0.109 -1.547 7.021 0.112 0.073 14 075072 1718 1993 276 1.000 0.118 -1.144 5.829 0.115 0.225 15 075081 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.110 -1.734 8.177 0.104 0.139 16 075082 1804 1993 190 1.000 0.117 -1.986 8.219 0.110 0.201 17 075091 1690 1993 304 1.000 0.121 -1.104 4.277 0.120 0.223 18 075092 1696 1909 214 1.000 0.123 -0.952 3.934 0.126 0.198 19 075101 1846 1993 148 1.000 0.097 -1.049 4.077 0.099 0.181 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 075102 1791 1993 203 1.000 0.109 -0.996 4.990 0.100 0.307 21 075111 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.086 -1.942 10.001 0.087 0.145 22 075112 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.109 -1.823 8.781 0.100 0.290 23 075121 1758 1993 236 1.000 0.148 -1.475 6.654 0.142 0.261 24 075122 1768 1993 226 1.000 0.159 -1.455 6.168 0.175 0.093 25 075131 1746 1993 248 1.000 0.106 -1.544 7.613 0.102 0.228 26 075132 1793 1993 201 1.000 0.135 -1.355 5.117 0.138 0.198 27 075141 1853 1993 141 1.000 0.154 -1.839 6.119 0.166 -0.039 28 075142 1827 1993 167 1.000 0.187 -0.869 3.430 0.211 0.036 29 075151 1785 1993 209 1.000 0.139 -1.600 7.177 0.153 0.099 30 075152 1810 1993 184 1.000 0.150 -1.847 7.446 0.166 0.076 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 1.000 0.114 -1.558 7.238 0.115 0.143 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.027 0.502 2.527 0.033 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 1.000 0.110 -1.543 7.099 0.107 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.035 0.635 2.390 0.040 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 128 1.000 0.070 -2.556 3.151 0.071 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.095 -1.847 5.829 0.089 0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 248 1.000 0.130 -1.211 8.219 0.129 0.223 MAXIMUM VALUE 304 1.000 0.187 -0.296 13.064 0.211 0.307 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.567 0.120 0.006 -0.589 3.438 0.109 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.109 SERIES 075051 AND 075092 44 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 075151 AND 075152 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 78. 153. 231. 351. 406. 406. 406. RBAR 0.285 0.272 0.399 0.520 0.664 0.632 0.553 0.598 0.590 SDEV 0.337 0.217 0.199 0.152 0.127 0.145 0.183 0.148 0.140 SERR 0.195 0.036 0.023 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.764 0.836 0.923 0.961 0.982 0.981 0.973 0.977 0.977 NSS 8.1 13.6 18.1 23.0 27.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 1.002 0.081 -2.122 11.112 0.084 0.075 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.480 -0.195 0.261 95 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.43 1.00 1.10 1.54 3.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.074 0.080 -0.031 0.044 0.039 -0.013 0.032 0.039 -0.037 -0.070 PACF 0.074 0.075 -0.042 0.044 0.039 -0.027 0.033 0.040 -0.054 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1993 304 1.002 0.081 -2.122 11.112 0.084 0.075 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.074 0.080 -0.031 0.044 0.039 -0.013 0.032 0.039 -0.037 -0.070 PACF 0.074 0.075 -0.042 0.044 0.039 -0.027 0.033 0.040 -0.054 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES