RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river WIDTH_EARLY LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.235 0.157 0.934 3.560 0.561 0.589 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.190 0.131 0.561 2.664 0.569 0.628 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.298 0.204 1.159 3.342 0.459 0.711 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.328 0.223 0.981 3.119 0.488 0.705 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.218 0.173 1.122 3.133 0.461 0.818 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.202 0.197 1.073 2.881 0.485 0.808 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.169 0.104 0.895 3.701 0.506 0.519 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.184 0.103 0.271 2.643 0.535 0.584 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.261 0.200 1.304 3.668 0.467 0.746 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.273 0.191 1.173 3.436 0.440 0.751 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.118 0.065 0.539 2.565 0.588 0.301 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.126 0.063 0.489 3.177 0.607 0.122 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.138 0.141 2.200 7.063 0.515 0.659 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.144 0.128 2.350 9.899 0.525 0.517 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.254 0.190 1.572 4.916 0.485 0.752 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.250 0.189 1.659 5.032 0.483 0.728 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.093 0.054 0.947 3.780 0.474 0.554 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.107 0.080 1.392 4.953 0.573 0.567 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.300 0.171 0.329 2.423 0.449 0.597 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.243 0.163 0.761 2.878 0.548 0.604 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 0.207 0.146 1.086 3.942 0.511 0.613 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.070 0.053 0.558 1.792 0.050 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.210 0.160 1.027 3.389 0.497 0.616 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.116 0.087 0.687 1.468 0.083 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.093 0.054 0.271 2.423 0.440 0.122 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.141 0.104 0.661 2.880 0.471 0.560 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.257 0.190 1.348 4.348 0.554 0.737 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 0.328 0.223 2.350 9.899 0.607 0.818 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.436 0.271 0.021 -0.146 2.626 -0.234 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.234 SERIES 090031 AND 090102 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.768 0.858 0.811 0.606 0.402 0.793 0.688 0.577 0.530 0.598 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.196 0.236 0.070 0.245 0.207 0.252 0.217 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.080 0.096 0.018 0.030 0.018 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.869 0.937 0.937 0.882 0.852 0.982 0.974 0.960 0.953 0.964 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.174 0.092 0.590 2.733 0.478 0.499 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.807 0.777 -0.035 26 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.95 2.54 1.02 1.09 3.63 32.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.21 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.495 0.284 0.094 0.095 0.075 0.163 0.085 0.054 -0.101 -0.015 PACF 0.495 0.052 -0.087 0.089 0.019 0.133 -0.065 -0.010 -0.152 0.111 95% C.L. 0.183 0.224 0.236 0.237 0.238 0.239 0.243 0.244 0.244 0.245 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.251 0.498 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 1 0.21899779 0.07822710 0.00000000 0.16806062 2 090012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139685 0.15690102 3 090021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00328105 0.37809396 4 090022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116316 0.35662234 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00569040 0.41153324 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043146 0.18135354 8 090042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088240 0.20888889 9 090051 1 0.44095472 0.04401185 0.00000000 0.11495940 10 090052 1 0.39031798 0.03917988 0.00000000 0.13110298 11 090061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075050 0.14665225 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006161 0.12336542 13 090071 1 0.38360575 0.03528561 0.00000000 0.01399006 14 090072 1 0.27603996 0.04849288 0.00000000 0.07546631 15 090081 1 0.41965589 0.05325651 0.00000000 0.12754594 16 090082 1 0.47061855 0.04465909 0.00000000 0.08770874 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125590 0.05436158 18 090092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191538 0.05417890 19 090101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00248978 0.35579282 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047179 0.25391304 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.636 0.832 3.070 0.547 0.506 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.998 0.694 0.707 2.969 0.556 0.621 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.995 0.632 0.867 2.903 0.449 0.687 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.673 0.930 2.954 0.479 0.692 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.127 0.923 2.335 8.426 0.452 0.748 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.022 0.554 1.202 5.862 0.481 0.326 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.607 0.776 3.331 0.497 0.507 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.544 0.095 2.353 0.525 0.571 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.006 0.661 1.285 3.779 0.460 0.655 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.003 0.575 0.588 2.409 0.435 0.631 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.999 0.533 0.386 2.348 0.581 0.251 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.502 0.485 3.176 0.599 0.119 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.018 0.587 0.679 2.773 0.524 0.401 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.003 0.708 1.195 4.068 0.548 0.552 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.004 0.601 0.803 2.952 0.477 0.637 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.007 0.542 0.553 2.932 0.477 0.543 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.010 0.569 1.043 4.153 0.469 0.379 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.008 0.684 0.704 2.636 0.564 0.432 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.998 0.555 0.286 2.323 0.438 0.560 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.668 0.741 2.857 0.536 0.589 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.010 0.622 0.825 3.414 0.505 0.520 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.028 0.093 0.468 1.438 0.050 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.002 0.604 0.758 2.953 0.489 0.556 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.007 0.116 0.416 0.850 0.083 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.995 0.502 0.095 2.323 0.435 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.554 0.571 2.705 0.464 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.007 0.670 0.987 3.555 0.548 0.634 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.127 0.923 2.335 8.426 0.599 0.748 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.959 0.507 0.358 2.939 0.544 0.377 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.980 0.594 0.437 2.785 0.545 0.439 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.973 0.498 0.435 2.643 0.445 0.515 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.971 0.579 0.774 2.851 0.476 0.575 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.971 0.479 0.354 2.635 0.453 0.531 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.992 0.490 0.428 2.721 0.479 0.295 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.990 0.579 0.673 3.068 0.498 0.487 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.985 0.511 0.058 2.437 0.521 0.532 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.980 0.488 0.394 2.265 0.463 0.442 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.981 0.482 0.097 2.071 0.432 0.536 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.993 0.509 0.370 2.511 0.580 0.180 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.997 0.491 0.441 3.251 0.599 0.091 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.997 0.566 0.679 2.772 0.523 0.385 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.988 0.628 0.811 2.899 0.547 0.494 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.987 0.512 0.236 2.087 0.476 0.510 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.990 0.484 0.336 3.252 0.475 0.450 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.988 0.488 0.513 2.780 0.467 0.313 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.967 0.610 0.646 2.528 0.565 0.362 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.964 0.485 0.838 3.671 0.434 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.999 0.509 0.550 3.722 0.565 0.180 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.983 0.524 0.471 2.795 0.504 0.410 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.012 0.048 0.217 0.447 0.051 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.986 0.508 0.436 2.776 0.489 0.446 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.019 0.084 0.303 0.484 0.081 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.959 0.479 0.058 2.071 0.432 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.972 0.488 0.356 2.520 0.465 0.338 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.991 0.572 0.659 3.004 0.546 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 0.999 0.628 0.838 3.722 0.599 0.575 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.613 0.127 0.010 -0.162 2.518 0.293 0.914 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.293 SERIES 090041 AND 090101 44 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.914 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.828 0.871 0.816 0.573 0.383 0.786 0.732 0.567 0.556 0.625 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.192 0.298 0.079 0.145 0.266 0.227 0.184 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.078 0.122 0.020 0.018 0.023 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.906 0.943 0.939 0.867 0.842 0.981 0.979 0.959 0.958 0.968 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.976 0.446 0.290 2.468 0.463 0.350 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.401 0.132 0.133 19 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.20 1.01 1.13 2.34 4.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.65 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.347 0.112 -0.056 -0.099 -0.095 -0.078 -0.138 -0.133 -0.324 -0.240 PACF 0.347 -0.010 -0.104 -0.053 -0.036 -0.035 -0.122 -0.069 -0.303 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.183 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.210 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.232 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.122 0.349 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.497 0.132 -0.019 -0.184 -0.290 -0.152 -0.032 -0.055 -0.183 -0.240 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.497 2 0.573 -0.153 3 0.569 -0.138 -0.025 4 0.564 -0.165 0.085 -0.194 5 0.536 -0.152 0.061 -0.110 -0.148 6 0.549 -0.142 0.055 -0.096 -0.197 0.093 7 0.549 -0.142 0.055 -0.096 -0.198 0.093 -0.001 8 0.549 -0.132 0.033 -0.107 -0.191 0.077 0.060 -0.111 9 0.521 -0.117 0.053 -0.155 -0.218 0.086 0.027 0.026 -0.250 10 0.482 -0.113 0.057 -0.141 -0.253 0.061 0.035 0.008 -0.168 -0.157 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 959.51 927.75 926.95 928.87 926.31 925.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 926.66 928.66 929.18 923.51 922.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.573 -0.153 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 135.97 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.573 0.176 0.013 -0.019 -0.013 -0.005 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 2 0.237 0.476 -0.202 2 090012 2 0.254 0.562 -0.260 3 090021 2 0.303 0.572 -0.097 4 090022 2 0.421 0.742 -0.264 5 090031 2 0.317 0.642 -0.186 6 090032 2 0.092 0.277 0.063 7 090041 2 0.243 0.492 -0.003 8 090042 2 0.332 0.582 -0.072 9 090051 2 0.214 0.490 -0.080 10 090052 2 0.326 0.655 -0.199 11 090061 2 0.035 0.171 0.053 12 090062 2 0.030 0.083 0.088 13 090071 2 0.161 0.426 -0.100 14 090072 2 0.260 0.530 -0.066 15 090081 2 0.295 0.581 -0.125 16 090082 2 0.230 0.500 -0.109 17 090091 2 0.151 0.360 -0.139 18 090092 2 0.139 0.362 0.013 19 090101 2 0.325 0.653 -0.250 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 2 0.054 0.224 -0.114 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.221 0.469 -0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.175 0.106 MEDIAN 2 0.240 0.496 -0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.165 0.220 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.030 0.083 -0.264 LOWER HINGE 2 0.145 0.361 -0.193 UPPER HINGE 2 0.310 0.581 -0.034 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.421 0.742 0.088 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.453 0.624 3.504 0.536 0.038 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.006 0.498 0.239 2.918 0.590 0.024 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.423 0.423 3.847 0.493 -0.013 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.449 0.143 2.940 0.572 -0.054 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.395 0.333 2.964 0.463 0.006 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.468 0.559 3.023 0.528 -0.002 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.504 0.598 3.587 0.598 0.000 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.426 0.058 3.252 0.544 -0.020 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.433 0.343 2.356 0.498 -0.007 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.394 -0.248 2.855 0.457 -0.006 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.500 0.353 2.408 0.597 0.001 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.487 0.370 3.125 0.606 0.010 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.519 0.855 3.217 0.581 -0.007 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.543 1.100 4.158 0.578 -0.008 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.435 0.161 2.601 0.515 -0.017 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.429 0.155 3.137 0.547 -0.016 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.458 0.495 2.872 0.536 0.025 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.001 0.564 0.663 3.107 0.664 0.003 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.401 0.477 2.471 0.465 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.493 0.668 3.547 0.564 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.464 0.418 3.095 0.547 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.001 0.049 0.301 0.469 0.054 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.456 0.397 3.065 0.545 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.071 0.411 0.514 0.079 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.394 -0.248 2.356 0.457 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.428 0.200 2.864 0.506 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.499 0.611 3.378 0.585 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.006 0.564 1.100 4.158 0.664 0.038 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.568 0.102 0.008 0.372 3.403 0.320 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.320 SERIES 090011 AND 090032 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.833 0.883 0.819 0.646 0.506 0.654 0.635 0.519 0.564 0.583 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.125 0.217 0.145 0.149 0.186 0.138 0.146 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.088 0.038 0.018 0.016 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.909 0.948 0.940 0.899 0.898 0.964 0.967 0.951 0.959 0.962 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.992 0.405 0.310 2.536 0.468 0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.397 0.134 0.121 22 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.62 1.00 1.03 1.65 3.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.72 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.018 0.030 -0.057 -0.044 -0.069 0.004 -0.121 -0.029 -0.280 -0.089 PACF 0.018 0.030 -0.058 -0.043 -0.064 0.006 -0.123 -0.036 -0.286 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.188 0.188 0.202 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.003 -0.055 -0.043 -0.064 0.009 -0.110 -0.020 -0.272 -0.081 PACF 0.002 0.003 -0.055 -0.043 -0.064 0.006 -0.116 -0.030 -0.284 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.200 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.002 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.994 0.472 0.392 2.887 0.449 0.494 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.490 0.099 -0.082 -0.115 -0.100 -0.079 -0.151 -0.210 -0.347 -0.278 PACF 0.490 -0.186 -0.066 -0.030 -0.038 -0.035 -0.151 -0.115 -0.288 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.183 0.223 0.225 0.226 0.228 0.229 0.230 0.233 0.239 0.256 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.272 0.583 -0.184 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.34 MINUTES