RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river DENSITY_EARLY LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 090012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 090031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 090032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 090062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 090081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 090082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1949 1949 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 090091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 090092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 4.016 0.745 1.403 4.199 0.139 0.286 2 090012 1944 1990 47 3.760 0.762 1.217 3.368 0.123 0.576 3 090021 1943 1990 48 3.416 0.607 1.825 4.862 0.078 0.714 4 090022 1943 1990 48 3.347 0.579 1.697 4.798 0.078 0.825 5 090031 1924 1990 67 3.359 0.240 -0.033 4.368 0.069 0.149 6 090032 1923 1990 68 3.758 0.579 0.587 2.456 0.109 0.614 7 090041 1936 1990 55 3.686 0.476 0.932 3.429 0.117 0.269 8 090042 1936 1990 55 3.656 0.573 2.385 8.314 0.078 0.638 9 090051 1928 1990 63 3.258 0.375 0.873 4.675 0.082 0.526 10 090052 1928 1990 63 3.240 0.277 0.575 5.240 0.082 0.122 11 090061 1872 1946 75 3.260 0.372 1.470 9.239 0.094 0.313 12 090062 1872 1945 74 3.472 0.351 0.814 3.206 0.097 0.119 13 090071 1906 1990 85 4.133 0.356 0.887 4.037 0.092 -0.004 14 090072 1905 1990 86 4.013 0.467 0.990 4.149 0.093 0.377 15 090081 1933 1990 58 3.735 0.289 0.410 3.347 0.068 0.348 16 090082 1932 1990 59 3.822 0.436 0.816 4.585 0.089 0.318 17 090091 1931 1990 60 4.518 0.551 0.730 4.182 0.097 0.432 18 090092 1937 1990 54 4.274 0.389 0.672 4.945 0.075 0.389 19 090101 1947 1990 44 3.811 0.650 1.666 6.913 0.134 0.401 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 3.923 0.602 1.436 4.338 0.106 0.486 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 3.723 0.484 1.068 4.733 0.095 0.395 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.358 0.153 0.567 1.669 0.021 0.213 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 57 3.747 0.472 0.909 4.353 0.093 0.383 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.580 0.227 0.752 1.170 0.029 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 38 3.240 0.240 -0.033 2.456 0.068 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 3.388 0.364 0.701 3.733 0.078 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 3.968 0.591 1.453 4.903 0.107 0.551 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 4.518 0.762 2.385 9.239 0.139 0.825 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.273 0.206 0.016 0.184 3.192 -0.298 0.876 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.298 SERIES 090032 AND 090042 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.876 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.089 0.419 0.488 0.161 0.040 0.213 0.319 0.290 0.302 0.263 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.232 0.340 0.273 0.240 0.275 0.252 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.095 0.088 0.034 0.021 0.022 0.022 EPS 0.164 0.638 0.767 0.482 0.266 0.791 0.889 0.879 0.886 0.864 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 3.633 0.285 0.638 3.912 0.064 0.385 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.616 0.509 -1.387 20 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.64 1.02 1.14 1.78 6.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.55 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.381 0.407 0.346 0.285 0.318 0.247 0.238 0.190 0.097 0.113 PACF 0.381 0.306 0.157 0.057 0.122 0.025 0.024 -0.014 -0.103 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.183 0.208 0.233 0.250 0.261 0.273 0.281 0.288 0.292 0.293 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.248 0.218 0.264 0.157 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 1 1.78540826 0.05058990 0.00000000 3.24278569 2 090012 1 2.41735029 0.06837105 0.00000000 3.06508851 3 090021 1 2.31049156 0.12423854 0.00000000 3.05352402 4 090022 1 2.29755521 0.12803034 0.00000000 2.99718881 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267232 3.45814061 6 090032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00999149 3.42826033 7 090041 1 1.22870409 0.02604700 0.00000000 3.04115510 8 090042 1 2.19747257 0.14666072 0.00000000 3.40278149 9 090051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01256960 3.66032267 10 090052 1 0.89909619 0.26835760 0.00000000 3.19347787 11 090061 1 0.69519645 0.02784635 0.00000000 2.97201848 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109679 3.52205634 13 090071 1 0.57298130 0.37700140 0.00000000 4.11725712 14 090072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00697063 4.33971119 15 090081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049690 3.73335981 16 090082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163988 3.89734793 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00456896 4.67474651 18 090092 1 0.78607959 0.06264006 0.00000000 4.08084106 19 090101 1 1.63621128 0.09945975 0.00000000 3.45978236 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 1 1.89023340 0.10601323 0.00000000 3.55885339 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.145 0.609 2.996 0.133 0.090 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.116 1.269 4.304 0.124 -0.003 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.087 0.501 3.389 0.076 0.276 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.080 0.525 4.177 0.076 0.320 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.072 -0.015 4.358 0.075 -0.032 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.146 0.688 2.635 0.115 0.458 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.106 0.711 3.597 0.114 -0.003 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.093 1.087 3.736 0.077 0.279 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.088 0.169 4.331 0.080 0.304 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.076 0.260 5.143 0.080 -0.012 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.101 1.410 6.661 0.093 0.153 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.101 0.789 3.067 0.101 0.068 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.085 0.983 4.273 0.097 -0.083 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.108 0.780 3.209 0.092 0.292 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.080 0.506 3.361 0.074 0.213 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.118 0.780 4.387 0.100 0.210 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.122 0.934 4.347 0.104 0.298 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.083 0.610 4.094 0.078 0.222 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.129 0.378 3.325 0.131 0.113 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.101 1.532 5.824 0.103 -0.038 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.102 0.725 4.061 0.096 0.156 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.022 0.399 0.979 0.019 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.101 0.700 4.136 0.095 0.182 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.034 0.454 1.009 0.032 0.288 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.072 -0.015 2.635 0.074 -0.083 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.084 0.504 3.343 0.078 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.117 0.958 4.353 0.109 0.285 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.146 1.532 6.661 0.133 0.458 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.999 0.131 0.476 3.340 0.131 -0.041 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.109 1.163 4.132 0.124 -0.119 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.084 0.480 3.548 0.076 0.235 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.076 0.654 4.322 0.076 0.250 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.066 0.161 4.603 0.075 -0.231 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.998 0.104 0.343 3.048 0.114 -0.002 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.104 0.698 3.640 0.114 -0.029 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.090 1.126 3.947 0.077 0.244 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.085 0.427 4.968 0.080 0.276 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.075 0.393 5.140 0.080 -0.059 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.099 1.500 6.930 0.093 0.121 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.095 0.814 3.517 0.101 -0.031 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.083 0.934 4.144 0.096 -0.114 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.104 1.129 4.158 0.092 0.233 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.071 0.201 3.730 0.074 -0.005 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.116 0.743 4.561 0.100 0.185 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.999 0.097 0.587 4.042 0.104 -0.057 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.078 0.514 3.964 0.078 0.127 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.999 0.121 0.341 3.559 0.130 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.093 1.751 6.725 0.103 -0.211 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.094 0.722 4.301 0.096 0.039 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.017 0.429 1.012 0.019 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.094 0.621 4.087 0.095 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.024 0.620 0.982 0.032 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.998 0.066 0.161 3.048 0.074 -0.231 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.080 0.410 3.600 0.078 -0.058 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.104 1.030 4.582 0.109 0.209 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.131 1.751 6.930 0.131 0.276 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.251 0.154 0.012 -0.280 2.792 -0.168 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.168 SERIES 090011 AND 090092 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 090021 AND 090101 44 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.023 0.462 0.439 0.164 0.051 0.268 0.378 0.249 0.291 0.250 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.087 0.230 0.363 0.280 0.238 0.270 0.229 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.036 0.094 0.094 0.034 0.020 0.022 0.020 EPS 0.044 0.678 0.730 0.487 0.317 0.836 0.912 0.855 0.881 0.857 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.996 0.060 0.579 4.278 0.064 -0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.502 0.363 -0.294 30 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 0.95 1.01 1.11 2.06 7.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.69 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 0.101 0.051 -0.062 0.004 -0.020 0.025 -0.037 -0.108 -0.061 PACF -0.059 0.098 0.063 -0.067 -0.015 -0.011 0.033 -0.035 -0.120 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.183 0.184 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.190 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.179 0.097 -0.003 -0.169 -0.148 -0.046 0.087 0.040 0.015 -0.079 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.179 2 -0.167 0.067 3 -0.169 0.071 0.026 4 -0.165 0.084 -0.004 -0.178 5 -0.204 0.083 0.015 -0.215 -0.222 6 -0.224 0.064 0.016 -0.207 -0.241 -0.092 7 -0.215 0.090 0.039 -0.209 -0.248 -0.067 0.108 8 -0.222 0.094 0.055 -0.195 -0.250 -0.073 0.123 0.067 9 -0.218 0.102 0.051 -0.210 -0.262 -0.070 0.128 0.054 -0.061 10 -0.229 0.112 0.075 -0.223 -0.311 -0.109 0.138 0.073 -0.101 -0.186 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 452.04 450.14 451.61 453.52 451.69 447.67 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 448.67 449.26 450.73 452.29 450.08 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.179 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.22 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.33 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.179 0.032 -0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 1 0.059 -0.044 2 090012 1 0.018 -0.119 3 090021 1 0.079 0.235 4 090022 1 0.103 0.257 5 090031 1 0.060 -0.238 6 090032 1 0.023 -0.002 7 090041 1 0.012 -0.030 8 090042 1 0.073 0.244 9 090051 1 0.082 0.285 10 090052 1 0.009 -0.059 11 090061 1 0.025 0.121 12 090062 1 0.003 -0.031 13 090071 1 0.021 -0.116 14 090072 1 0.074 0.239 15 090081 1 0.003 -0.005 16 090082 1 0.038 0.188 17 090091 1 0.073 -0.057 18 090092 1 0.075 0.132 19 090101 1 0.000 0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 1 0.063 -0.211 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.045 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.032 0.161 MEDIAN 1 0.049 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.058 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.238 LOWER HINGE 1 0.015 -0.058 UPPER HINGE 1 0.074 0.212 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.103 0.285 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.131 0.434 3.200 0.129 -0.009 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.109 1.238 4.472 0.118 -0.007 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.082 0.686 3.881 0.084 -0.037 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.073 0.667 4.888 0.084 0.043 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.064 -0.030 4.159 0.066 0.007 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.104 0.341 3.045 0.114 0.000 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.104 0.679 3.589 0.113 -0.003 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.087 0.831 4.378 0.089 0.029 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.082 0.105 3.690 0.093 -0.002 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.075 0.319 4.949 0.079 -0.004 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.099 1.577 7.217 0.100 0.013 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.095 0.819 3.496 0.099 0.002 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.083 0.950 4.228 0.091 -0.012 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.101 1.061 4.009 0.105 -0.035 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.071 0.195 3.726 0.073 0.000 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.114 1.118 5.294 0.109 -0.012 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.096 0.620 4.048 0.101 0.015 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.077 0.440 3.687 0.085 -0.036 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.121 0.341 3.564 0.130 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.091 1.611 6.434 0.094 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.093 0.700 4.298 0.098 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.018 0.458 1.045 0.017 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.093 0.673 4.029 0.096 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.025 0.664 1.042 0.026 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.064 -0.030 3.045 0.066 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.079 0.341 3.638 0.084 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.104 1.005 4.680 0.111 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.131 1.611 7.217 0.130 0.043 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.250 0.155 0.012 -0.175 2.721 -0.157 0.627 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.157 SERIES 090011 AND 090092 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.627 SERIES 090021 AND 090101 44 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.012 0.481 0.479 0.169 0.051 0.260 0.372 0.249 0.277 0.243 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.112 0.263 0.348 0.279 0.239 0.265 0.227 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.107 0.090 0.034 0.021 0.021 0.019 EPS 0.025 0.694 0.761 0.497 0.318 0.831 0.910 0.856 0.873 0.852 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.996 0.059 0.644 4.321 0.064 -0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.528 0.388 -0.319 26 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.23 1.05 1.13 2.36 4.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.09 0.71 0.91 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.106 0.111 0.070 -0.069 0.012 -0.039 0.040 -0.045 -0.105 -0.061 PACF -0.106 0.101 0.093 -0.066 -0.020 -0.032 0.046 -0.033 -0.123 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.183 0.185 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.192 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.011 0.109 0.076 -0.062 0.001 -0.034 0.031 -0.053 -0.119 -0.097 PACF 0.011 0.109 0.075 -0.076 -0.016 -0.025 0.045 -0.051 -0.127 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.188 0.191 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.996 0.060 0.745 4.587 0.067 -0.187 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.185 0.123 0.062 -0.072 0.021 -0.044 0.045 -0.040 -0.098 -0.038 PACF -0.185 0.092 0.105 -0.058 -0.022 -0.036 0.045 -0.021 -0.121 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.183 0.190 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.196 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.043 -0.186 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES