RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river WIDTH_LATE LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 090061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.131 0.091 2.405 7.814 0.481 0.352 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.102 0.073 1.332 4.586 0.529 0.529 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.105 0.064 1.444 4.647 0.357 0.725 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.109 0.063 1.141 3.493 0.338 0.720 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.084 0.065 1.910 6.659 0.407 0.500 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.104 0.101 2.786 13.515 0.570 0.381 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.097 0.093 5.175 30.342 0.510 0.187 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.105 0.068 2.764 12.574 0.454 0.529 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.098 0.069 1.992 6.549 0.386 0.678 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.125 0.065 0.896 3.330 0.425 0.416 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.046 0.019 1.512 6.992 0.343 0.268 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.066 0.039 2.580 10.178 0.509 0.015 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.069 0.047 1.324 4.453 0.357 0.710 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.077 0.047 0.982 3.533 0.406 0.625 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.087 0.053 1.652 5.304 0.440 0.506 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.095 0.065 2.298 9.051 0.463 0.479 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.084 0.063 1.409 4.307 0.540 0.621 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.064 0.040 1.179 4.405 0.482 0.393 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.131 0.064 0.504 2.535 0.459 0.405 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.088 0.045 0.798 3.099 0.464 0.400 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 0.093 0.062 1.804 7.368 0.446 0.472 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.022 0.019 1.036 6.235 0.068 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.096 0.064 1.478 4.975 0.456 0.490 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.024 0.021 1.192 4.513 0.100 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.046 0.019 0.504 2.535 0.338 0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.081 0.047 1.160 3.920 0.396 0.387 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.105 0.068 2.351 8.433 0.496 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 0.131 0.101 5.175 30.342 0.570 0.725 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.268 0.239 0.019 0.344 2.533 -0.179 0.811 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.179 SERIES 090011 AND 090091 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.811 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.337 0.506 0.577 0.303 0.030 0.538 0.485 0.315 0.252 0.351 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.350 0.326 0.128 0.271 0.243 0.263 0.288 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.143 0.133 0.033 0.033 0.021 0.021 0.025 EPS 0.504 0.715 0.825 0.678 0.213 0.942 0.941 0.892 0.859 0.906 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.076 0.030 0.487 2.652 0.295 0.597 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.826 0.752 -0.019 31 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.98 2.16 1.05 1.24 3.40 25.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.62 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.592 0.428 0.263 0.242 0.126 0.187 0.180 0.127 0.102 0.128 PACF 0.592 0.120 -0.048 0.109 -0.089 0.160 0.045 -0.084 0.049 0.051 95% C.L. 0.183 0.239 0.264 0.272 0.279 0.281 0.286 0.289 0.291 0.292 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.369 0.599 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00269395 0.18305832 2 090012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023705 0.10802960 3 090021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165002 0.14500886 4 090022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012647 0.11247340 5 090031 1 0.19028182 0.04880839 0.00000000 0.02940962 6 090032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00192656 0.17087796 7 090041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020274 0.09141414 8 090042 1 0.08059987 0.05987163 0.00000000 0.08258595 9 090051 1 0.17450923 0.07004733 0.00000000 0.06006525 10 090052 1 0.13029598 0.06979389 0.00000000 0.09682131 11 090061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006369 0.04777169 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066094 0.04129582 13 090071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138401 0.12681521 14 090072 1 0.12126328 0.06089042 0.00000000 0.05266316 15 090081 1 0.07977979 0.05540752 0.00000000 0.06389617 16 090082 1 0.15909825 0.07785904 0.00000000 0.06228778 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095582 0.05484746 18 090092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099562 0.03669462 19 090101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074700 0.14771670 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021338 0.09327536 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.014 0.640 1.678 4.596 0.470 0.227 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.706 1.243 4.292 0.518 0.511 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.995 0.533 1.335 4.600 0.349 0.673 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.574 1.138 3.486 0.332 0.704 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.006 0.449 0.870 4.045 0.403 0.439 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.955 0.894 3.203 14.810 0.563 0.334 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.961 5.234 30.831 0.501 0.183 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.565 1.782 6.995 0.447 0.450 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.516 1.493 5.277 0.378 0.614 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.479 1.186 4.705 0.417 0.280 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.422 1.243 6.764 0.390 0.126 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.010 0.485 1.280 5.511 0.504 0.044 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.110 0.674 1.811 6.169 0.361 0.618 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.527 1.117 4.716 0.404 0.625 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.587 2.455 11.249 0.431 0.485 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.999 0.477 0.803 3.384 0.457 0.367 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.003 0.743 1.406 4.219 0.530 0.485 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.004 0.555 0.518 2.499 0.475 0.320 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.999 0.480 0.511 2.522 0.449 0.379 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.502 0.769 3.096 0.454 0.393 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.005 0.588 1.554 6.688 0.442 0.413 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.027 0.144 1.073 6.398 0.063 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.544 1.261 4.653 0.448 0.416 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.004 0.175 0.737 2.701 0.091 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.955 0.422 0.511 2.499 0.332 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.483 0.993 3.765 0.396 0.300 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.003 0.657 1.730 6.466 0.488 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.110 0.961 5.234 30.831 0.563 0.704 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.990 0.486 0.825 3.036 0.468 0.261 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.973 0.571 0.709 2.897 0.524 0.263 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.983 0.454 1.107 3.802 0.346 0.567 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.975 0.461 0.767 3.221 0.326 0.599 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.993 0.395 0.597 3.831 0.403 0.293 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.987 0.654 1.956 8.353 0.565 0.175 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.989 0.821 4.176 22.237 0.499 0.180 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.992 0.527 1.549 6.245 0.444 0.408 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.990 0.437 1.245 5.152 0.378 0.441 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.996 0.466 1.446 6.033 0.416 0.212 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.998 0.407 0.979 5.685 0.391 0.098 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.995 0.405 0.573 3.654 0.503 -0.214 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.987 0.380 0.477 2.552 0.358 0.317 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.992 0.461 0.459 2.676 0.405 0.526 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.991 0.491 1.626 7.997 0.433 0.373 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.997 0.461 0.712 3.225 0.456 0.324 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.963 0.595 1.106 4.151 0.534 0.428 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.979 0.483 0.365 2.280 0.476 0.229 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.990 0.433 0.536 2.337 0.447 0.211 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.989 0.399 0.205 2.348 0.456 0.158 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.987 0.489 1.071 5.086 0.441 0.292 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.009 0.105 0.867 4.432 0.065 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.990 0.461 0.796 3.728 0.446 0.278 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.008 0.089 0.791 3.072 0.091 0.222 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.963 0.380 0.205 2.280 0.326 -0.214 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.985 0.420 0.555 2.787 0.397 0.195 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.993 0.509 1.345 5.859 0.488 0.418 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 0.998 0.821 4.176 22.237 0.565 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.362 0.156 0.012 0.271 2.893 0.047 0.820 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.047 SERIES 090032 AND 090041 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.820 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.322 0.561 0.581 0.317 0.042 0.533 0.503 0.325 0.280 0.376 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.319 0.380 0.128 0.202 0.226 0.240 0.255 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.130 0.155 0.033 0.025 0.019 0.019 0.022 EPS 0.487 0.758 0.827 0.692 0.274 0.941 0.945 0.896 0.875 0.915 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.960 0.284 -0.101 3.013 0.304 0.291 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.323 0.185 0.111 32 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.25 1.02 1.12 2.37 9.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.09 0.63 0.91 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.288 0.082 -0.067 -0.110 -0.237 -0.128 -0.107 -0.076 -0.152 -0.121 PACF 0.288 -0.001 -0.098 -0.071 -0.196 -0.011 -0.069 -0.071 -0.169 -0.121 95% C.L. 0.183 0.198 0.199 0.200 0.202 0.211 0.214 0.215 0.216 0.220 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 0.291 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 0.100 -0.054 -0.202 -0.321 -0.161 -0.030 -0.115 -0.176 -0.128 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.450 2 0.508 -0.128 3 0.500 -0.098 -0.060 4 0.490 -0.115 0.029 -0.177 5 0.454 -0.110 0.006 -0.079 -0.200 6 0.471 -0.103 0.005 -0.070 -0.238 0.084 7 0.472 -0.104 0.005 -0.070 -0.239 0.087 -0.006 8 0.470 -0.087 -0.044 -0.084 -0.238 0.066 0.091 -0.206 9 0.435 -0.071 -0.033 -0.125 -0.252 0.058 0.076 -0.124 -0.174 10 0.420 -0.081 -0.027 -0.121 -0.273 0.048 0.073 -0.130 -0.138 -0.082 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 888.05 863.10 863.12 864.69 862.91 860.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 861.21 863.20 860.06 858.42 859.61 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.27 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.450 0.203 0.091 0.041 0.018 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 1 0.150 0.280 2 090012 1 0.102 0.274 3 090021 1 0.436 0.578 4 090022 1 0.409 0.608 5 090031 1 0.098 0.296 6 090032 1 0.032 0.178 7 090041 1 0.035 0.180 8 090042 1 0.230 0.415 9 090051 1 0.207 0.446 10 090052 1 0.084 0.213 11 090061 1 0.017 0.099 12 090062 1 0.049 -0.221 13 090071 1 0.101 0.318 14 090072 1 0.304 0.528 15 090081 1 0.143 0.376 16 090082 1 0.118 0.335 17 090091 1 0.208 0.441 18 090092 1 0.053 0.230 19 090101 1 0.103 0.219 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 1 0.052 0.159 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.147 0.298 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.120 0.187 MEDIAN 1 0.103 0.288 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.155 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.017 -0.221 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.197 UPPER HINGE 1 0.208 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.436 0.608 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.465 0.798 2.917 0.482 0.069 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.548 0.776 3.089 0.557 -0.050 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.369 1.348 4.227 0.319 0.216 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.366 0.076 3.223 0.402 0.157 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.377 0.627 3.637 0.419 -0.027 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.643 2.188 9.489 0.541 0.006 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.808 4.526 24.816 0.514 0.009 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.478 1.154 4.848 0.480 0.107 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.391 1.308 6.255 0.433 0.045 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.455 1.638 6.371 0.431 0.043 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.001 0.403 0.977 5.863 0.414 -0.003 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.395 0.599 3.927 0.455 0.000 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.360 0.697 3.459 0.402 -0.003 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.392 0.352 2.492 0.426 0.099 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.455 1.791 7.942 0.438 0.019 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.433 0.724 3.214 0.474 0.016 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.531 0.749 4.454 0.651 0.043 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.001 0.468 0.277 2.765 0.523 0.009 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.422 0.516 2.460 0.463 0.046 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.394 0.296 2.342 0.463 0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.458 1.071 5.389 0.464 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.109 0.978 4.964 0.070 0.063 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.427 0.763 3.782 0.459 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.082 0.770 3.056 0.076 0.055 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.360 0.076 2.342 0.319 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.391 0.558 3.003 0.422 0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.473 1.328 6.059 0.498 0.058 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.001 0.808 4.526 24.816 0.651 0.216 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.323 0.150 0.012 0.209 2.969 -0.040 0.789 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 090022 AND 090032 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.789 SERIES 090081 AND 090082 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.284 0.437 0.542 0.426 0.069 0.491 0.450 0.268 0.257 0.355 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.266 0.334 0.131 0.210 0.221 0.229 0.229 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.109 0.136 0.034 0.026 0.019 0.018 0.020 EPS 0.442 0.656 0.803 0.783 0.388 0.931 0.933 0.867 0.862 0.908 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.973 0.271 0.053 2.818 0.310 0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.313 0.165 0.118 32 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.81 1.19 1.00 1.17 2.36 8.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.60 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.072 -0.029 -0.042 -0.043 -0.197 -0.069 -0.071 -0.052 -0.112 -0.069 PACF 0.072 -0.034 -0.037 -0.038 -0.195 -0.048 -0.084 -0.069 -0.141 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.196 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.031 -0.036 -0.026 -0.191 -0.050 -0.064 -0.040 -0.105 -0.053 PACF 0.002 -0.031 -0.036 -0.026 -0.194 -0.056 -0.084 -0.066 -0.137 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.190 0.191 0.192 0.192 0.194 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.974 0.299 0.065 2.975 0.286 0.424 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.421 0.122 -0.030 -0.123 -0.243 -0.189 -0.167 -0.156 -0.194 -0.175 PACF 0.421 -0.067 -0.069 -0.093 -0.183 -0.018 -0.096 -0.099 -0.169 -0.134 95% C.L. 0.183 0.213 0.216 0.216 0.218 0.227 0.232 0.236 0.240 0.245 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.183 0.424 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES