RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river DENSITY_MINIMUM LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 090012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 090031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 090032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 090052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 090062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 090081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 090082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1949 1949 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 090091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 090092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.319 0.078 1.564 4.628 0.189 0.253 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.296 0.081 1.167 3.526 0.184 0.467 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.262 0.057 2.003 6.588 0.106 0.654 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.253 0.062 1.757 4.907 0.115 0.774 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.253 0.031 0.151 2.975 0.111 0.232 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.304 0.060 0.415 2.235 0.148 0.481 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.290 0.054 0.836 2.980 0.140 0.395 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.282 0.071 2.032 6.757 0.153 0.563 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.247 0.036 0.817 3.660 0.113 0.455 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.242 0.032 1.039 3.855 0.124 0.122 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.265 0.041 0.695 3.937 0.150 0.186 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.276 0.040 0.355 2.817 0.151 0.054 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.340 0.044 0.905 4.017 0.138 0.040 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.323 0.055 1.055 5.261 0.133 0.345 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.294 0.033 0.812 4.334 0.105 0.240 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.292 0.044 1.163 5.278 0.129 0.127 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.377 0.056 0.405 3.944 0.138 0.278 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.353 0.050 0.969 4.079 0.127 0.315 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.287 0.067 3.131 13.911 0.137 0.424 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.312 0.073 1.452 4.341 0.146 0.516 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 0.293 0.053 1.136 4.701 0.137 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.036 0.016 0.704 2.453 0.023 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 57 0.291 0.054 1.004 4.048 0.137 0.330 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.052 0.024 0.755 1.491 0.030 0.265 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.242 0.031 0.151 2.235 0.105 0.040 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.264 0.041 0.754 3.593 0.119 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 0.315 0.064 1.508 5.084 0.149 0.474 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 0.377 0.081 3.131 13.911 0.189 0.774 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.350 0.214 0.017 -0.380 3.488 -0.292 0.877 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.292 SERIES 090022 AND 090032 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.877 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.364 0.549 0.711 0.292 0.213 0.337 0.493 0.358 0.409 0.385 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.181 0.368 0.228 0.217 0.246 0.226 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 0.074 0.095 0.028 0.019 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.534 0.749 0.895 0.666 0.699 0.877 0.943 0.909 0.926 0.918 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.290 0.032 0.994 5.659 0.105 0.212 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.355 0.268 -0.031 18 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.72 1.01 1.14 1.86 4.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.80 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.210 0.273 0.154 0.172 0.125 0.132 0.046 0.127 -0.055 0.010 PACF 0.210 0.240 0.066 0.082 0.041 0.048 -0.039 0.071 -0.125 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.183 0.191 0.204 0.208 0.213 0.215 0.218 0.218 0.221 0.221 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.106 0.161 0.244 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 1 0.17205895 0.08027410 0.00000000 0.26734149 2 090012 1 0.25963986 0.08233078 0.00000000 0.23483345 3 090021 1 0.23367389 0.14263144 0.00000000 0.23057055 4 090022 1 0.26254818 0.15023907 0.00000000 0.21940956 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025600 0.26343343 6 090032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00153535 0.25277215 7 090041 1 0.14563125 0.03449531 0.00000000 0.22605501 8 090042 1 0.27277294 0.17152500 0.00000000 0.25586078 9 090051 1 0.09683721 0.02968052 0.00000000 0.20335138 10 090052 1 0.15583453 0.55444771 0.00000000 0.23884864 11 090061 1 0.07896557 0.03924697 0.00000000 0.24028231 12 090062 1 0.05127883 0.06493215 0.00000000 0.26673955 13 090071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010831 0.33532748 14 090072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078353 0.36003739 15 090081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002387 0.29558846 16 090082 1 0.09722045 0.53279084 0.00000000 0.29436985 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096111 0.41012663 18 090092 1 0.13022447 0.02525392 0.00000000 0.28749532 19 090101 1 0.19806887 0.14065449 0.00000000 0.25684592 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 1 0.22799990 0.10689334 0.00000000 0.26812604 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.190 0.724 3.114 0.183 0.126 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.171 1.350 4.872 0.181 0.017 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.106 1.196 5.425 0.101 0.147 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.115 1.125 4.422 0.115 0.196 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.129 0.629 3.638 0.121 0.076 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.177 0.785 2.984 0.157 0.212 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.142 1.204 4.100 0.138 0.056 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.169 1.258 4.468 0.148 0.306 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.114 0.470 2.749 0.111 0.195 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.113 1.012 4.665 0.112 0.027 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.137 1.002 3.751 0.148 -0.042 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.141 0.432 2.873 0.157 -0.081 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.129 0.813 3.765 0.138 0.014 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.159 1.179 4.789 0.131 0.256 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.122 1.160 5.085 0.115 0.103 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.165 1.545 6.010 0.145 0.041 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.154 1.076 4.631 0.148 0.087 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.138 1.515 6.283 0.131 0.214 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.155 1.278 5.565 0.135 0.102 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.158 1.844 6.175 0.142 0.071 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.144 1.080 4.468 0.138 0.106 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.024 0.361 1.095 0.022 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.141 1.143 4.549 0.138 0.095 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.037 0.469 1.561 0.030 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.106 0.432 2.749 0.101 -0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.125 0.799 3.694 0.118 0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.162 1.268 5.255 0.148 0.196 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.190 1.844 6.283 0.183 0.306 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.998 0.171 0.434 3.018 0.180 -0.015 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.161 1.340 5.509 0.180 -0.098 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.100 1.222 5.793 0.101 0.064 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.999 0.107 1.150 4.445 0.115 0.085 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.999 0.122 0.942 4.894 0.121 -0.042 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.997 0.143 1.066 4.624 0.157 -0.135 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.140 1.197 4.074 0.137 0.043 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.162 1.350 4.791 0.148 0.260 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.107 0.530 2.670 0.111 0.118 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.110 1.005 4.903 0.112 -0.032 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.135 1.016 3.710 0.148 -0.073 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.138 0.507 2.795 0.157 -0.139 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.126 0.822 3.878 0.138 -0.020 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.999 0.152 1.815 7.454 0.131 0.151 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.112 1.037 5.385 0.115 -0.032 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.162 1.400 5.709 0.145 0.021 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.999 0.132 1.005 4.944 0.148 -0.178 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.999 0.128 1.397 6.024 0.131 0.107 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.999 0.143 1.228 5.990 0.136 -0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.999 0.145 1.843 6.619 0.141 -0.064 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.999 0.135 1.115 4.861 0.138 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.001 0.021 0.374 1.264 0.022 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.136 1.108 4.899 0.138 -0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.001 0.031 0.372 1.775 0.030 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.997 0.100 0.434 2.670 0.101 -0.178 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.999 0.117 0.973 3.976 0.118 -0.069 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.148 1.345 5.751 0.148 0.074 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.171 1.843 7.454 0.180 0.260 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.388 0.136 0.011 -0.438 3.381 -0.099 0.675 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 090032 AND 090061 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.675 SERIES 090042 AND 090081 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.336 0.583 0.688 0.296 0.222 0.378 0.557 0.314 0.421 0.399 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.143 0.170 0.379 0.236 0.251 0.229 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 0.070 0.098 0.029 0.022 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.503 0.774 0.884 0.671 0.710 0.895 0.955 0.891 0.929 0.922 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.993 0.091 1.110 5.555 0.098 -0.043 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.438 0.229 -0.141 29 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.08 1.01 1.14 2.22 4.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.66 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.043 0.101 -0.050 -0.035 -0.050 -0.012 -0.064 0.059 -0.126 -0.079 PACF -0.043 0.100 -0.042 -0.049 -0.044 -0.009 -0.060 0.052 -0.118 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.183 0.184 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.191 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.051 0.069 -0.108 -0.181 -0.174 -0.047 0.066 0.127 0.040 -0.122 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.051 2 -0.047 0.067 3 -0.040 0.062 -0.102 4 -0.061 0.075 -0.110 -0.198 5 -0.098 0.054 -0.096 -0.209 -0.190 6 -0.111 0.040 -0.103 -0.206 -0.196 -0.066 7 -0.108 0.048 -0.094 -0.202 -0.198 -0.061 0.041 8 -0.111 0.052 -0.079 -0.187 -0.191 -0.065 0.049 0.075 9 -0.109 0.054 -0.081 -0.192 -0.196 -0.067 0.051 0.072 -0.029 10 -0.115 0.068 -0.071 -0.205 -0.234 -0.104 0.035 0.082 -0.050 -0.195 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 587.25 588.95 590.41 591.16 588.41 586.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 587.53 589.33 590.66 592.55 589.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.098 0.054 -0.096 -0.209 -0.190 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.098 0.063 -0.108 -0.186 -0.163 0.022 0.018 0.074 0.061 0.0226 -0.014 -0.022 -0.028 -0.013 0.001 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.001 -.0028 -0.004 -0.003 -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 5 0.171 -0.113 -0.241 -0.156 -0.279 -0.180 2 090012 5 0.147 -0.156 -0.214 -0.061 -0.216 -0.227 3 090021 5 0.155 0.055 0.099 -0.060 -0.072 -0.053 4 090022 5 0.090 0.095 -0.127 0.112 0.134 0.010 5 090031 5 0.119 -0.102 0.092 -0.127 -0.242 -0.194 6 090032 5 0.063 -0.132 0.121 0.026 0.152 0.066 7 090041 5 0.227 -0.085 0.073 0.015 -0.320 -0.356 8 090042 5 0.161 0.240 -0.092 -0.042 -0.239 -0.037 9 090051 5 0.161 0.060 0.051 -0.252 -0.236 0.016 10 090052 5 0.111 -0.029 0.115 -0.257 -0.112 0.013 11 090061 5 0.050 -0.061 -0.041 -0.175 0.098 -0.023 12 090062 5 0.037 -0.132 0.008 -0.054 0.112 0.018 13 090071 5 0.070 -0.045 -0.001 0.011 -0.236 -0.122 14 090072 5 0.100 0.122 0.104 0.057 -0.036 -0.245 15 090081 5 0.146 -0.107 0.113 -0.119 -0.276 -0.213 16 090082 5 0.266 -0.141 0.016 -0.299 -0.347 -0.212 17 090091 5 0.170 -0.134 0.197 0.000 -0.017 -0.150 18 090092 5 0.216 0.160 0.089 -0.242 0.131 -0.074 19 090101 5 0.135 0.022 0.024 0.166 -0.320 -0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 5 0.138 -0.074 -0.204 -0.206 0.141 -0.094 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.137 -0.028 0.009 -0.083 -0.109 -0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.059 0.115 0.125 0.130 0.183 0.113 MEDIAN 5 0.142 -0.067 0.038 -0.061 -0.164 -0.084 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.071 0.180 0.168 0.203 0.364 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.037 -0.156 -0.241 -0.299 -0.347 -0.356 LOWER HINGE 5 0.095 -0.123 -0.066 -0.190 -0.259 -0.203 UPPER HINGE 5 0.166 0.057 0.102 0.013 0.105 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.266 0.240 0.197 0.166 0.152 0.066 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.157 0.286 2.770 0.150 0.038 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.151 1.223 5.081 0.158 -0.035 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.099 1.354 5.930 0.105 -0.015 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.104 1.415 5.499 0.111 0.000 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.115 0.508 3.997 0.116 0.025 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.139 1.024 4.895 0.145 0.003 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.123 0.426 3.508 0.128 0.002 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.149 1.150 4.493 0.164 -0.010 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.098 0.128 2.244 0.112 -0.001 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.105 0.632 3.805 0.111 0.000 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.131 0.887 3.781 0.138 0.005 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.135 0.498 2.853 0.145 0.002 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.121 0.542 3.238 0.133 -0.001 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.144 1.951 8.268 0.134 -0.027 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.103 0.652 4.553 0.104 -0.008 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.140 0.543 4.063 0.141 -0.037 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.125 0.581 4.710 0.141 -0.039 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.121 0.820 4.699 0.133 -0.024 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.129 0.948 5.293 0.126 0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.136 1.407 5.418 0.138 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.126 0.849 4.455 0.132 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.018 0.457 1.339 0.017 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.127 0.736 4.523 0.133 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.030 0.661 1.543 0.029 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.098 0.128 2.244 0.104 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.110 0.525 3.644 0.114 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.139 1.186 5.187 0.143 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.157 1.951 8.268 0.164 0.038 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.353 0.141 0.011 -0.512 3.505 -0.096 0.640 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.096 SERIES 090032 AND 090061 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.640 SERIES 090041 AND 090081 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.294 0.648 0.630 0.284 0.228 0.383 0.488 0.268 0.386 0.343 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.121 0.129 0.336 0.240 0.212 0.216 0.221 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.049 0.053 0.087 0.030 0.018 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.455 0.819 0.855 0.658 0.718 0.896 0.942 0.867 0.919 0.903 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.995 0.085 0.901 5.271 0.091 -0.061 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.198 -0.112 24 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.74 1.01 1.15 1.88 7.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.72 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 0.072 0.083 -0.036 0.034 -0.083 -0.053 0.007 -0.163 -0.113 PACF -0.061 0.069 0.092 -0.032 0.017 -0.084 -0.062 0.007 -0.141 -0.134 95% C.L. 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.193 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.014 -0.003 -0.076 -0.037 0.018 -0.142 -0.116 PACF 0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.014 -0.003 -0.076 -0.037 0.018 -0.143 -0.117 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.188 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.007 0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.014 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.996 0.087 1.221 6.039 0.094 -0.054 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.054 0.062 -0.113 -0.164 -0.141 -0.007 0.026 0.141 -0.037 -0.031 PACF -0.054 0.060 -0.107 -0.181 -0.155 -0.023 0.001 0.088 -0.079 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.187 0.192 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.199 0.199 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES