RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river DENSITY_LATE LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 090012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 090031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 090032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 090062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 090081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 090082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1949 1949 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 090091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 090092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1944 1944 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 7.413 0.878 -1.636 5.863 0.146 -0.046 2 090012 1944 1990 47 6.998 0.869 -0.875 3.410 0.118 0.303 3 090021 1943 1990 48 6.684 0.710 -0.703 4.041 0.112 0.133 4 090022 1943 1990 48 6.699 0.735 -0.634 3.409 0.109 0.262 5 090031 1924 1990 67 6.799 1.129 -0.820 2.777 0.144 0.390 6 090032 1923 1990 68 6.558 1.353 -0.112 1.975 0.116 0.740 7 090041 1936 1990 55 6.806 0.805 -0.538 3.260 0.098 0.321 8 090042 1936 1990 55 6.967 0.842 -0.933 3.635 0.116 0.227 9 090051 1928 1990 63 6.618 1.054 -0.496 2.449 0.140 0.460 10 090052 1928 1990 63 6.876 1.073 -0.830 3.006 0.132 0.523 11 090061 1872 1946 75 5.585 0.932 0.532 2.937 0.178 0.193 12 090062 1872 1945 74 6.016 0.921 0.130 2.516 0.168 0.056 13 090071 1906 1990 85 7.066 1.106 -0.239 2.662 0.127 0.521 14 090072 1905 1990 86 7.203 1.019 -0.454 2.356 0.127 0.358 15 090081 1933 1990 58 7.266 1.031 -0.711 2.620 0.126 0.370 16 090082 1932 1990 59 7.527 0.893 -0.891 3.249 0.103 0.355 17 090091 1931 1990 60 7.074 0.967 -0.345 2.642 0.090 0.607 18 090092 1937 1990 54 6.994 0.860 -0.939 3.074 0.109 0.265 19 090101 1947 1990 44 7.341 0.769 -2.448 10.535 0.087 0.174 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 7.300 0.869 -1.631 6.438 0.119 0.167 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 6.890 0.941 -0.729 3.643 0.123 0.319 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.466 0.155 0.649 1.959 0.024 0.190 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 57 6.981 0.907 -0.707 3.040 0.119 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.543 0.192 0.512 0.891 0.027 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 38 5.585 0.710 -2.448 1.975 0.087 -0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 6.691 0.851 -0.912 2.631 0.109 0.184 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 7.235 1.042 -0.399 3.522 0.136 0.425 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 7.527 1.353 0.532 10.535 0.178 0.740 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.459 0.207 0.016 -0.588 2.700 -0.069 0.868 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.069 SERIES 090031 AND 090061 23 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.868 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.430 0.561 0.342 0.416 0.325 0.823 0.621 0.404 0.370 0.612 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.244 0.234 0.096 0.199 0.220 0.240 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.095 0.025 0.024 0.019 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.601 0.758 0.642 0.775 0.806 0.985 0.965 0.924 0.914 0.966 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 6.438 0.928 -0.288 2.159 0.105 0.589 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.170 0.074 0.197 20 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.97 2.60 1.03 1.22 3.82 15.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.79 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.584 0.507 0.487 0.446 0.356 0.365 0.380 0.455 0.350 0.299 PACF 0.584 0.252 0.192 0.100 -0.031 0.081 0.106 0.224 -0.069 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.183 0.238 0.272 0.300 0.321 0.334 0.347 0.361 0.380 0.391 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.425 0.379 0.173 0.210 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00252107 7.36399698 2 090012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01811238 6.51181364 3 090021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00391446 6.58826256 4 090022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01850304 6.24542522 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00160132 6.72321224 6 090032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01786721 7.16647196 7 090041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02038961 6.23545456 8 090042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01784488 6.46761608 9 090051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01211885 6.23045063 10 090052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02772178 5.98925257 11 090061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00436216 5.41957140 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02131337 5.22500420 13 090071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00874551 7.38321733 14 090072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00555647 6.92053318 15 090081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053848 7.22855234 16 090082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02181682 6.81716013 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03234529 6.04000282 18 090092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01756177 6.46513462 19 090101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01353136 7.03622627 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01703854 6.90002871 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.118 -1.663 5.960 0.142 -0.046 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.127 -1.367 4.246 0.124 0.245 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.106 -0.817 4.137 0.110 0.112 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.102 -0.946 4.189 0.107 0.109 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.167 -0.759 2.682 0.144 0.405 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.199 0.079 2.037 0.116 0.699 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.108 -0.862 4.068 0.096 0.175 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.112 -1.399 5.176 0.113 0.142 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.156 -0.546 2.462 0.138 0.433 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.140 -0.719 3.142 0.130 0.402 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.166 0.479 2.904 0.176 0.184 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.131 -0.418 3.017 0.166 -0.233 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.156 -0.136 2.427 0.128 0.496 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.141 -0.396 2.289 0.127 0.381 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.143 -0.651 2.520 0.126 0.380 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.113 -0.980 3.243 0.108 0.299 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.115 -0.629 3.397 0.092 0.508 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.122 -1.002 3.004 0.107 0.359 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.101 -3.052 13.672 0.085 0.135 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.114 -1.915 8.322 0.117 0.088 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.132 -0.885 4.145 0.123 0.264 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.026 0.760 2.691 0.023 0.215 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.125 -0.788 3.192 0.121 0.272 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.036 0.703 1.617 0.026 0.280 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.101 -3.052 2.037 0.085 -0.233 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.113 -1.184 2.601 0.107 0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.149 -0.482 4.217 0.134 0.403 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.199 0.479 13.672 0.176 0.699 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.117 -1.691 6.086 0.142 -0.085 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.120 -0.980 4.028 0.124 0.172 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.999 0.097 -0.009 4.296 0.110 -0.043 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.096 -0.647 4.117 0.107 0.018 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.998 0.147 -1.002 3.283 0.144 0.248 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.998 0.132 -0.060 3.715 0.116 0.337 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.105 -0.928 4.292 0.095 0.147 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.110 -1.439 5.407 0.113 0.112 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.999 0.145 -0.751 2.945 0.137 0.375 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.999 0.126 -1.041 4.042 0.129 0.297 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.999 0.159 0.339 2.783 0.176 0.120 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.128 -0.360 2.994 0.166 -0.291 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.999 0.145 -0.307 2.613 0.128 0.431 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.999 0.132 -0.467 2.633 0.126 0.311 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.999 0.127 -0.918 3.155 0.127 0.226 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.108 -1.086 3.714 0.107 0.244 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.999 0.095 -0.945 4.524 0.092 0.276 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.999 0.112 -1.024 3.114 0.106 0.241 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.091 -3.716 18.636 0.086 -0.050 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.105 -2.200 9.785 0.117 -0.097 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.999 0.120 -0.962 4.808 0.122 0.150 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.019 0.874 3.635 0.023 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.999 0.118 -0.937 3.872 0.120 0.199 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.001 0.027 0.650 1.356 0.026 0.299 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.998 0.091 -3.716 2.613 0.086 -0.291 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.999 0.105 -1.063 3.054 0.107 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.132 -0.414 4.410 0.133 0.286 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.159 0.339 18.636 0.176 0.431 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.521 0.156 0.012 -0.307 2.614 0.149 0.882 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.149 SERIES 090062 AND 090071 40 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.882 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.432 0.577 0.333 0.425 0.392 0.821 0.676 0.391 0.426 0.649 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.250 0.084 0.153 0.245 0.200 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.098 0.102 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.603 0.770 0.632 0.782 0.847 0.985 0.973 0.920 0.930 0.971 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.997 0.097 -0.671 3.702 0.101 0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.017 -0.008 0.089 18 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.52 1.00 1.02 1.55 4.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.70 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.130 -0.017 -0.030 -0.073 -0.148 -0.122 -0.097 0.083 -0.120 -0.175 PACF 0.130 -0.034 -0.024 -0.068 -0.133 -0.095 -0.087 0.090 -0.179 -0.188 95% C.L. 0.183 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.188 0.191 0.194 0.196 0.197 0.199 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.274 -0.010 -0.095 -0.108 -0.336 -0.092 0.005 0.065 -0.086 -0.121 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.274 2 0.299 -0.092 3 0.293 -0.070 -0.073 4 0.288 -0.075 -0.054 -0.067 5 0.266 -0.092 -0.078 0.026 -0.323 6 0.294 -0.094 -0.071 0.034 -0.346 0.085 7 0.297 -0.108 -0.070 0.031 -0.350 0.096 -0.039 8 0.297 -0.109 -0.065 0.031 -0.349 0.098 -0.043 0.015 9 0.300 -0.116 -0.048 -0.027 -0.344 0.087 -0.061 0.064 -0.165 10 0.267 -0.103 -0.061 -0.010 -0.412 0.082 -0.071 0.041 -0.106 -0.199 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 593.78 586.48 587.47 588.83 590.30 579.15 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 580.29 582.11 584.09 582.79 580.00 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.274 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.52 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.13 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.274 0.075 0.021 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 1 0.030 -0.087 2 090012 1 0.046 0.175 3 090021 1 0.064 -0.044 4 090022 1 0.005 0.019 5 090031 1 0.067 0.253 6 090032 1 0.116 0.338 7 090041 1 0.024 0.148 8 090042 1 0.054 0.114 9 090051 1 0.154 0.383 10 090052 1 0.103 0.297 11 090061 1 0.021 0.122 12 090062 1 0.088 -0.293 13 090071 1 0.188 0.434 14 090072 1 0.097 0.311 15 090081 1 0.051 0.227 16 090082 1 0.060 0.244 17 090091 1 0.078 0.277 18 090092 1 0.063 0.242 19 090101 1 0.007 -0.050 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 1 0.019 -0.097 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.067 0.151 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.048 0.189 MEDIAN 1 0.061 0.201 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.065 0.300 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.005 -0.293 LOWER HINGE 1 0.027 -0.013 UPPER HINGE 1 0.092 0.287 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.188 0.434 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.116 -1.674 6.014 0.138 -0.013 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.118 -1.089 4.275 0.134 -0.017 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.097 0.014 4.333 0.107 0.010 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.096 -0.657 4.156 0.108 0.001 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.142 -1.136 3.903 0.160 0.018 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.124 -0.176 3.880 0.137 -0.014 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.104 -1.035 4.853 0.104 -0.006 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.109 -1.490 5.597 0.116 0.020 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.134 -0.688 3.210 0.156 0.034 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.121 -1.063 4.280 0.147 -0.037 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.158 0.342 2.774 0.186 -0.010 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.122 -0.489 3.135 0.144 -0.015 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.131 -0.469 2.917 0.153 -0.004 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.126 -0.596 2.969 0.143 0.000 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.123 -1.022 3.653 0.140 -0.002 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.105 -1.218 3.940 0.118 -0.002 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.091 -0.761 4.959 0.102 0.011 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.109 -1.147 3.817 0.118 0.016 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.091 -3.656 18.425 0.083 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.104 -2.228 9.926 0.112 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.116 -1.012 5.051 0.130 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.017 0.854 3.517 0.025 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.117 -1.029 4.048 0.135 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.021 0.640 1.474 0.036 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.091 -3.656 2.774 0.083 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.104 -1.183 3.432 0.110 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.125 -0.543 4.906 0.146 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.158 0.342 18.425 0.186 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.510 0.151 0.012 -0.164 2.586 0.155 0.870 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.155 SERIES 090052 AND 090102 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.870 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.343 0.501 0.345 0.465 0.470 0.752 0.623 0.382 0.432 0.650 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.242 0.259 0.126 0.168 0.254 0.192 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.099 0.106 0.032 0.021 0.022 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.511 0.711 0.646 0.808 0.884 0.977 0.966 0.917 0.932 0.971 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.998 0.094 -0.795 4.056 0.103 0.005 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.000 0.000 0.080 20 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.56 1.01 1.07 1.63 109.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.73 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.068 -0.028 -0.024 -0.142 -0.132 -0.087 0.139 -0.103 -0.135 PACF 0.005 -0.068 -0.028 -0.029 -0.146 -0.140 -0.118 0.108 -0.142 -0.171 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.188 0.191 0.192 0.196 0.198 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.067 -0.028 -0.024 -0.141 -0.131 -0.087 0.140 -0.103 -0.134 PACF 0.000 -0.067 -0.028 -0.028 -0.146 -0.140 -0.119 0.109 -0.140 -0.171 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.188 0.191 0.192 0.196 0.198 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.999 0.097 -0.659 3.598 0.094 0.255 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.253 -0.010 -0.048 -0.081 -0.189 -0.189 -0.106 0.067 -0.117 -0.177 PACF 0.253 -0.079 -0.028 -0.066 -0.167 -0.117 -0.057 0.083 -0.213 -0.168 95% C.L. 0.183 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.196 0.202 0.208 0.210 0.211 0.213 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.070 0.254 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES