RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river WIDTH_RING LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.366 0.216 1.155 4.651 0.495 0.636 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.293 0.191 0.450 2.440 0.493 0.652 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.402 0.261 1.179 3.454 0.407 0.751 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.438 0.279 1.006 3.179 0.430 0.745 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.302 0.228 1.010 2.665 0.423 0.777 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.306 0.256 0.710 2.429 0.510 0.748 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.266 0.156 1.176 4.593 0.446 0.624 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.290 0.152 0.795 3.908 0.440 0.608 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.359 0.254 1.270 3.599 0.407 0.789 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.398 0.239 0.910 2.998 0.408 0.729 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.163 0.079 0.562 2.617 0.485 0.323 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.192 0.089 0.550 3.380 0.556 0.042 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.207 0.182 1.932 6.199 0.413 0.702 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.221 0.164 1.652 6.049 0.445 0.602 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.341 0.231 1.361 4.311 0.437 0.756 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.345 0.235 1.375 4.150 0.451 0.725 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.177 0.104 0.569 2.450 0.472 0.628 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.171 0.110 0.817 3.225 0.489 0.573 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.431 0.214 0.274 2.716 0.396 0.585 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.331 0.197 0.666 2.898 0.468 0.648 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 0.300 0.192 0.971 3.596 0.454 0.632 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.088 0.061 0.423 1.116 0.042 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.304 0.205 0.958 3.302 0.445 0.650 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.148 0.083 0.607 1.540 0.069 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.163 0.079 0.274 2.429 0.396 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.214 0.154 0.617 2.691 0.418 0.605 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.362 0.237 1.225 4.230 0.487 0.747 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 0.438 0.279 1.932 6.199 0.556 0.789 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.421 0.274 0.022 -0.092 2.492 -0.235 0.918 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.235 SERIES 090031 AND 090102 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.918 SERIES 090051 AND 090081 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.753 0.839 0.805 0.560 0.323 0.798 0.676 0.520 0.466 0.539 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.254 0.267 0.061 0.224 0.222 0.265 0.237 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.104 0.109 0.016 0.028 0.019 0.021 0.020 EPS 0.859 0.927 0.935 0.861 0.804 0.982 0.973 0.951 0.940 0.954 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.256 0.122 0.448 2.480 0.398 0.575 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.841 0.728 -0.053 18 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.19 4.93 1.05 1.36 6.30 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.13 0.60 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.570 0.346 0.182 0.158 0.111 0.160 0.119 0.060 -0.059 0.009 PACF 0.570 0.032 -0.041 0.093 -0.011 0.118 -0.029 -0.052 -0.118 0.127 95% C.L. 0.183 0.235 0.252 0.256 0.260 0.261 0.264 0.266 0.267 0.267 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.331 0.574 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 1 0.40157589 0.10908031 0.00000000 0.27554998 2 090012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00115981 0.26493061 3 090021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00493107 0.52310282 4 090022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128962 0.46909574 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00792122 0.57141113 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022872 0.27276769 8 090042 1 0.33832142 0.00721336 0.00000000 0.01137959 9 090051 1 0.60572261 0.04887348 0.00000000 0.17545158 10 090052 1 0.50851148 0.04513469 0.00000000 0.23344877 11 090061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080825 0.19404685 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072255 0.16466124 13 090071 1 0.52456510 0.02968835 0.00000000 0.01210148 14 090072 1 0.39554587 0.05178962 0.00000000 0.12855883 15 090081 1 0.49939761 0.05366713 0.00000000 0.19163875 16 090082 1 0.61808777 0.04968402 0.00000000 0.15039559 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00221173 0.10920904 18 090092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291100 0.09087352 19 090101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00323679 0.50350952 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068517 0.34718841 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.542 1.021 3.805 0.481 0.498 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.656 0.519 2.528 0.482 0.648 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.994 0.591 0.912 3.055 0.398 0.720 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.635 0.970 3.051 0.421 0.730 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.142 0.891 2.454 9.328 0.414 0.782 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.041 0.607 1.507 7.106 0.505 0.349 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.584 1.148 4.495 0.438 0.612 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.500 0.394 2.777 0.432 0.578 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.004 0.590 1.227 3.524 0.400 0.695 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.001 0.499 0.426 2.372 0.403 0.591 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.469 0.480 2.512 0.478 0.283 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.444 0.262 2.940 0.549 0.031 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.017 0.503 0.656 2.955 0.421 0.427 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.001 0.615 1.158 4.329 0.453 0.624 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.002 0.572 1.125 4.231 0.430 0.649 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.004 0.487 0.549 3.198 0.444 0.539 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.006 0.585 0.930 3.612 0.464 0.442 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.006 0.590 0.311 2.080 0.481 0.446 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.998 0.482 0.175 2.529 0.387 0.549 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.591 0.644 2.884 0.458 0.633 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.011 0.572 0.843 3.666 0.447 0.541 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.032 0.096 0.531 1.730 0.041 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.001 0.585 0.784 3.053 0.441 0.585 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.005 0.100 0.683 1.366 0.062 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.994 0.444 0.175 2.080 0.387 0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.499 0.453 2.653 0.418 0.444 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.005 0.599 1.137 4.018 0.480 0.648 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.142 0.891 2.454 9.328 0.549 0.782 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.978 0.451 0.548 3.654 0.480 0.380 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.978 0.547 0.255 2.662 0.467 0.433 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.976 0.467 0.402 2.312 0.392 0.599 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.972 0.533 0.712 2.684 0.416 0.624 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.977 0.437 0.340 2.799 0.415 0.520 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.988 0.496 0.520 2.995 0.504 0.292 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.990 0.549 0.969 3.998 0.438 0.591 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.991 0.473 0.314 2.761 0.428 0.547 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.983 0.440 0.411 2.273 0.403 0.480 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.987 0.431 -0.026 2.066 0.402 0.476 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.995 0.447 0.392 2.433 0.479 0.224 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.997 0.436 0.356 3.315 0.549 -0.006 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.996 0.475 0.582 2.691 0.420 0.395 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.990 0.540 0.650 2.774 0.452 0.556 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.988 0.480 0.409 2.750 0.429 0.523 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.993 0.443 0.328 3.448 0.443 0.450 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.979 0.499 0.632 2.947 0.464 0.418 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.973 0.526 0.309 2.064 0.480 0.372 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.979 0.425 0.612 3.534 0.384 0.467 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.988 0.413 -0.132 2.420 0.466 0.276 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.985 0.475 0.429 2.829 0.446 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.008 0.044 0.246 0.531 0.041 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.987 0.470 0.405 2.756 0.441 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.012 0.074 0.277 0.729 0.057 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.972 0.413 -0.132 2.064 0.384 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.978 0.439 0.321 2.426 0.416 0.376 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 0.991 0.513 0.597 3.155 0.473 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 0.997 0.549 0.969 3.998 0.549 0.624 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.580 0.137 0.011 -0.066 2.772 0.185 0.933 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.185 SERIES 090032 AND 090101 44 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.933 SERIES 090021 AND 090022 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.780 0.859 0.810 0.552 0.305 0.787 0.701 0.532 0.496 0.563 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.233 0.350 0.072 0.139 0.251 0.240 0.212 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.095 0.143 0.018 0.017 0.022 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.876 0.937 0.936 0.857 0.791 0.981 0.976 0.953 0.947 0.958 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.979 0.387 0.196 2.524 0.394 0.353 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.302 0.109 0.135 25 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.78 1.02 1.06 1.85 5.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.46 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.350 0.107 -0.063 -0.104 -0.132 -0.099 -0.119 -0.126 -0.312 -0.221 PACF 0.350 -0.018 -0.108 -0.053 -0.077 -0.033 -0.088 -0.086 -0.301 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.183 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.209 0.212 0.213 0.215 0.218 0.232 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.124 0.352 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.514 0.139 -0.029 -0.194 -0.296 -0.180 -0.032 -0.067 -0.202 -0.226 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.514 2 0.601 -0.169 3 0.595 -0.148 -0.035 4 0.588 -0.177 0.079 -0.193 5 0.560 -0.165 0.054 -0.108 -0.144 6 0.570 -0.158 0.050 -0.097 -0.181 0.066 7 0.567 -0.152 0.053 -0.099 -0.176 0.047 0.033 8 0.573 -0.145 0.025 -0.115 -0.167 0.022 0.125 -0.162 9 0.532 -0.113 0.031 -0.157 -0.196 0.029 0.089 -0.018 -0.251 10 0.502 -0.115 0.041 -0.154 -0.219 0.010 0.092 -0.032 -0.188 -0.119 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 931.55 897.09 895.63 897.48 894.96 894.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 895.94 897.80 896.65 890.92 891.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.601 -0.169 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 28.50 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 139.87 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.601 0.191 0.013 -0.024 -0.017 -0.006 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 2 0.266 0.484 -0.274 2 090012 2 0.203 0.479 -0.082 3 090021 2 0.435 0.775 -0.276 4 090022 2 0.493 0.858 -0.348 5 090031 2 0.296 0.594 -0.129 6 090032 2 0.098 0.281 0.042 7 090041 2 0.374 0.692 -0.163 8 090042 2 0.345 0.671 -0.199 9 090051 2 0.251 0.547 -0.120 10 090052 2 0.266 0.583 -0.205 11 090061 2 0.052 0.216 0.039 12 090062 2 0.033 -0.006 0.093 13 090071 2 0.169 0.429 -0.082 14 090072 2 0.329 0.627 -0.120 15 090081 2 0.317 0.605 -0.143 16 090082 2 0.237 0.497 -0.105 17 090091 2 0.231 0.503 -0.179 18 090092 2 0.173 0.393 -0.045 19 090101 2 0.305 0.629 -0.313 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 2 0.098 0.324 -0.127 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.249 0.509 -0.137 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.200 0.116 MEDIAN 2 0.259 0.525 -0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.152 0.217 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.033 -0.006 -0.348 LOWER HINGE 2 0.171 0.411 -0.202 UPPER HINGE 2 0.323 0.628 -0.082 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.493 0.858 0.093 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.401 0.605 3.756 0.465 0.073 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.005 0.477 0.255 3.392 0.522 0.016 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.356 0.222 3.219 0.432 -0.046 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.384 0.189 2.784 0.476 -0.054 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.368 0.354 2.673 0.420 -0.005 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.474 0.736 3.460 0.521 0.005 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.435 1.176 4.972 0.492 -0.012 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.382 -0.117 3.303 0.487 -0.020 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.381 0.281 2.210 0.438 -0.003 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.369 -0.077 2.333 0.428 -0.006 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.435 0.400 2.356 0.510 0.001 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.434 0.368 3.391 0.534 0.013 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.434 0.831 3.588 0.484 -0.009 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.444 0.978 3.711 0.474 -0.011 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.403 0.349 2.871 0.467 -0.023 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.393 0.176 3.277 0.489 -0.019 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.441 0.259 3.037 0.571 0.024 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.487 0.207 2.699 0.594 0.009 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.353 0.423 2.716 0.423 0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.391 -0.150 2.025 0.482 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.412 0.373 3.089 0.485 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.001 0.041 0.347 0.675 0.047 0.026 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.402 0.315 3.128 0.483 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.056 0.316 0.740 0.064 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.353 -0.150 2.025 0.420 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.382 0.198 2.686 0.451 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.438 0.514 3.426 0.515 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.005 0.487 1.176 4.972 0.594 0.073 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.542 0.118 0.009 0.051 3.762 0.223 0.877 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.223 SERIES 090032 AND 090101 44 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.877 SERIES 090081 AND 090082 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.794 0.855 0.798 0.653 0.446 0.665 0.623 0.494 0.521 0.512 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.261 0.133 0.151 0.181 0.159 0.173 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.107 0.034 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.885 0.935 0.931 0.901 0.874 0.965 0.966 0.946 0.951 0.949 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.991 0.350 0.291 2.633 0.398 -0.003 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.377 0.129 0.099 25 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.56 1.02 1.06 1.62 11.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.61 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.017 -0.059 -0.021 -0.083 -0.008 -0.099 -0.037 -0.267 -0.059 PACF -0.003 0.017 -0.059 -0.022 -0.081 -0.011 -0.101 -0.049 -0.278 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.200 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 -0.057 -0.022 -0.081 -0.007 -0.094 -0.038 -0.264 -0.059 PACF 0.001 0.000 -0.057 -0.022 -0.081 -0.011 -0.098 -0.049 -0.277 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.187 0.187 0.199 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.992 0.414 0.311 2.810 0.379 0.511 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.507 0.106 -0.081 -0.113 -0.118 -0.101 -0.156 -0.223 -0.341 -0.272 PACF 0.507 -0.203 -0.059 -0.023 -0.067 -0.033 -0.142 -0.138 -0.263 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.183 0.226 0.227 0.228 0.230 0.232 0.234 0.237 0.244 0.260 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.292 0.611 -0.200 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.09 MINUTES