RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS162X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 090 1 Ayakli river DENSITY_MAXIMUM LAGM - 090 2 Russia Dahurian larch 550 6932-9732 1872 1990 - 090 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 090032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 090071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1926 / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 090072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 0.846 0.104 -1.807 6.070 0.144 -0.006 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.780 0.111 -1.061 3.335 0.122 0.396 3 090021 1943 1990 48 0.770 0.081 -0.379 3.559 0.109 0.210 4 090022 1943 1990 48 0.770 0.088 -0.783 3.726 0.110 0.315 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.775 0.129 -0.956 3.048 0.140 0.405 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.719 0.153 -0.181 2.002 0.146 0.647 7 090041 1936 1990 55 0.773 0.093 -0.927 3.346 0.093 0.329 8 090042 1936 1990 55 0.790 0.100 -1.161 3.983 0.120 0.241 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.765 0.122 -0.726 2.604 0.141 0.434 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.792 0.119 -0.969 3.168 0.127 0.490 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.639 0.116 0.210 2.660 0.191 0.216 12 090062 1872 1945 74 0.681 0.115 -0.108 2.371 0.184 0.081 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.797 0.128 -0.376 2.820 0.129 0.568 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.814 0.120 -0.639 2.580 0.130 0.383 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.826 0.125 -1.003 3.012 0.129 0.358 16 090082 1932 1990 59 0.854 0.117 -1.484 4.711 0.117 0.374 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.771 0.121 -0.697 2.782 0.105 0.659 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.770 0.114 -1.108 3.160 0.125 0.463 19 090101 1947 1990 44 0.834 0.086 -2.921 12.756 0.085 0.116 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 0.833 0.105 -1.969 7.452 0.112 0.301 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1872 TO 1990 119 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 0.780 0.112 -0.952 3.957 0.128 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.053 0.017 0.710 2.439 0.026 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.777 0.116 -0.941 3.164 0.126 0.366 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.050 0.020 0.626 1.133 0.030 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.639 0.081 -2.921 2.002 0.085 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.770 0.102 -1.134 2.721 0.111 0.228 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 65 0.820 0.122 -0.509 3.854 0.140 0.449 MAXIMUM VALUE 82 0.854 0.153 0.210 12.756 0.191 0.659 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.487 0.208 0.016 -0.652 2.976 -0.089 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 090031 AND 090061 23 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.430 0.636 0.633 0.538 0.358 0.842 0.634 0.435 0.405 0.633 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.263 0.244 0.085 0.206 0.204 0.234 0.208 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.107 0.099 0.022 0.025 0.017 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.601 0.811 0.856 0.849 0.827 0.987 0.967 0.932 0.924 0.969 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.733 0.109 -0.328 2.157 0.109 0.556 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.017 -0.007 0.085 23 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.93 1.74 1.03 1.23 2.97 11.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.46 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 58. 20. 38. 48. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.552 0.441 0.384 0.401 0.348 0.330 0.343 0.436 0.301 0.291 PACF 0.552 0.197 0.120 0.167 0.043 0.062 0.099 0.216 -0.108 0.027 95% C.L. 0.183 0.233 0.259 0.278 0.296 0.310 0.321 0.334 0.352 0.361 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.352 0.443 0.207 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075938 0.83098149 2 090012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00205134 0.73034227 3 090021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063667 0.75460994 4 090022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00223079 0.71576238 5 090031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031407 0.76454544 6 090032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00257058 0.82104772 7 090041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00221284 0.71149492 8 090042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00227489 0.72666669 9 090051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152890 0.71583718 10 090052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00308660 0.69313365 11 090061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054139 0.61796039 12 090062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00229160 0.59460568 13 090071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089257 0.82854259 14 090072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072068 0.77866620 15 090081 1 0.38015020 0.00000001 0.00000000 0.44555053 16 090082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225131 0.78652835 17 090091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00405974 0.64734465 18 090092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00262550 0.69779873 19 090101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00156730 0.79882663 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00289793 0.76515943 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.122 -1.865 6.323 0.140 -0.013 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.135 -1.463 4.409 0.120 0.332 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.105 -0.488 3.690 0.107 0.182 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.106 -1.107 5.024 0.108 0.174 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.166 -0.950 3.090 0.138 0.400 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.999 0.202 -0.046 2.041 0.138 0.614 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.111 -1.312 4.323 0.090 0.219 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.117 -1.623 5.674 0.118 0.145 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.157 -0.677 2.650 0.138 0.405 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.134 -0.974 3.337 0.125 0.370 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.180 0.134 2.640 0.189 0.209 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.150 -0.681 3.113 0.182 -0.093 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.160 -0.266 2.553 0.130 0.544 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.147 -0.587 2.539 0.130 0.398 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.151 -1.003 3.012 0.127 0.352 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.129 -1.791 5.691 0.115 0.316 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.129 -1.034 3.601 0.104 0.455 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.141 -1.097 2.988 0.122 0.383 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.099 -3.604 16.643 0.083 0.081 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.116 -2.629 11.693 0.110 0.178 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.138 -1.153 4.752 0.126 0.283 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.027 0.872 3.525 0.026 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.135 -1.019 3.469 0.124 0.324 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.038 0.911 2.530 0.029 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.999 0.099 -3.604 2.041 0.083 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.116 -1.543 2.819 0.109 0.176 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.154 -0.632 5.349 0.138 0.399 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.202 0.134 16.643 0.189 0.614 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 090011 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 090012 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 090021 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 090022 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 090031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 090032 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 090041 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 090042 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 090051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 090052 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 090061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 090062 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 090071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 090072 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 090081 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 090082 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 090091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 090092 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 090101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 090102 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.119 -2.019 6.902 0.140 -0.068 2 090012 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.125 -1.136 4.508 0.119 0.241 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.098 0.311 3.820 0.107 0.073 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.099 -0.810 4.764 0.108 0.066 5 090031 1924 1990 67 0.998 0.149 -1.202 3.637 0.139 0.273 6 090032 1923 1990 68 0.998 0.148 0.009 4.191 0.137 0.256 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.108 -1.373 4.678 0.090 0.195 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.114 -1.754 6.035 0.117 0.112 9 090051 1928 1990 63 0.999 0.144 -1.015 3.410 0.138 0.331 10 090052 1928 1990 63 0.999 0.124 -1.255 4.090 0.124 0.282 11 090061 1872 1946 75 0.999 0.173 0.015 2.647 0.189 0.153 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.149 -0.516 3.058 0.182 -0.135 13 090071 1906 1990 85 0.999 0.149 -0.431 2.716 0.130 0.481 14 090072 1905 1990 86 0.999 0.140 -0.643 2.980 0.130 0.349 15 090081 1933 1990 58 0.999 0.138 -1.312 3.986 0.127 0.236 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.126 -1.889 6.112 0.115 0.279 17 090091 1931 1990 60 0.999 0.112 -1.095 4.258 0.102 0.255 18 090092 1937 1990 54 0.999 0.128 -1.094 3.175 0.122 0.260 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.091 -4.139 21.006 0.083 -0.086 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.106 -3.125 14.193 0.110 -0.012 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 0.999 0.127 -1.224 5.508 0.125 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.022 1.042 4.429 0.026 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 0.999 0.125 -1.116 4.140 0.123 0.238 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.001 0.036 0.984 2.107 0.028 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.998 0.091 -4.139 2.647 0.083 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 0.999 0.110 -1.563 3.292 0.109 0.070 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.146 -0.579 5.399 0.137 0.276 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.173 0.311 21.006 0.189 0.481 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.542 0.157 0.012 -0.280 2.597 0.114 0.896 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.114 SERIES 090031 AND 090061 23 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.896 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.430 0.659 0.661 0.522 0.427 0.831 0.686 0.414 0.454 0.665 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.275 0.254 0.084 0.162 0.235 0.198 0.187 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.112 0.104 0.022 0.020 0.020 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.601 0.826 0.871 0.841 0.865 0.986 0.974 0.927 0.937 0.973 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 0.999 0.106 -0.756 3.891 0.107 0.154 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.205 -0.099 0.185 24 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 1.09 1.01 1.11 2.20 3.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.59 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.152 -0.041 -0.136 -0.072 -0.078 -0.110 -0.101 0.085 -0.130 -0.130 PACF 0.152 -0.065 -0.122 -0.036 -0.076 -0.114 -0.095 0.084 -0.215 -0.133 95% C.L. 0.183 0.188 0.188 0.191 0.192 0.193 0.195 0.197 0.198 0.201 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 0.153 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.262 -0.033 -0.111 -0.115 -0.287 -0.093 0.009 0.095 -0.091 -0.133 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.262 2 0.291 -0.109 3 0.282 -0.086 -0.079 4 0.276 -0.092 -0.059 -0.072 5 0.257 -0.108 -0.084 0.004 -0.273 6 0.267 -0.108 -0.081 0.008 -0.283 0.037 7 0.268 -0.117 -0.081 0.005 -0.286 0.045 -0.029 8 0.269 -0.119 -0.068 0.005 -0.283 0.050 -0.041 0.044 9 0.278 -0.127 -0.059 -0.049 -0.282 0.037 -0.064 0.095 -0.191 10 0.247 -0.111 -0.069 -0.043 -0.327 0.029 -0.073 0.075 -0.146 -0.162 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 610.08 603.61 604.19 605.44 606.82 599.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 601.42 603.32 605.09 602.68 601.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.262 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.38 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.262 0.069 0.018 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 090011 1 0.030 -0.068 2 090012 1 0.062 0.244 3 090021 1 0.021 0.074 4 090022 1 0.011 0.067 5 090031 1 0.089 0.278 6 090032 1 0.077 0.257 7 090041 1 0.039 0.197 8 090042 1 0.048 0.115 9 090051 1 0.114 0.337 10 090052 1 0.086 0.283 11 090061 1 0.028 0.156 12 090062 1 0.019 -0.135 13 090071 1 0.237 0.483 14 090072 1 0.125 0.350 15 090081 1 0.056 0.236 16 090082 1 0.083 0.279 17 090091 1 0.106 0.255 18 090092 1 0.103 0.260 19 090101 1 0.021 -0.086 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 090102 1 0.018 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.069 0.178 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.054 0.162 MEDIAN 1 0.059 0.240 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.071 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.011 -0.135 LOWER HINGE 1 0.025 0.070 UPPER HINGE 1 0.096 0.278 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.237 0.483 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 090011 1953 1990 38 1.000 0.118 -1.995 6.875 0.137 -0.011 2 090012 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.121 -1.224 4.789 0.132 0.014 3 090021 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.097 0.282 3.779 0.111 -0.008 4 090022 1943 1990 48 1.000 0.099 -0.870 4.873 0.112 0.005 5 090031 1924 1990 67 1.000 0.143 -1.393 4.458 0.153 0.032 6 090032 1923 1990 68 1.000 0.143 0.107 4.228 0.157 -0.027 7 090041 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.106 -1.477 5.293 0.101 0.005 8 090042 1936 1990 55 1.000 0.113 -1.818 6.244 0.120 0.018 9 090051 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.135 -0.996 3.702 0.160 -0.004 10 090052 1928 1990 63 1.000 0.119 -1.213 4.183 0.139 -0.024 11 090061 1872 1946 75 1.000 0.171 0.034 2.612 0.200 -0.009 12 090062 1872 1945 74 1.000 0.147 -0.560 3.104 0.170 -0.003 13 090071 1906 1990 85 1.000 0.131 -0.662 3.190 0.152 0.033 14 090072 1905 1990 86 1.000 0.131 -0.830 3.400 0.145 0.017 15 090081 1933 1990 58 1.000 0.134 -1.451 4.821 0.140 0.004 16 090082 1932 1990 59 1.000 0.121 -1.689 5.633 0.128 0.020 17 090091 1931 1990 60 1.000 0.108 -0.948 4.614 0.113 0.052 18 090092 1937 1990 54 1.000 0.124 -1.273 4.026 0.134 0.048 19 090101 1947 1990 44 1.000 0.091 -4.013 20.417 0.078 0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 090102 1942 1987 46 1.000 0.106 -3.138 14.256 0.110 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 60 1.000 0.123 -1.256 5.725 0.135 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.020 1.014 4.227 0.027 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 58 1.000 0.121 -1.218 4.536 0.135 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.028 0.837 1.723 0.041 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.091 -4.013 2.612 0.078 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 48 1.000 0.107 -1.583 3.740 0.112 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.135 -0.746 5.463 0.153 0.019 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.171 0.282 20.417 0.200 0.052 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 162 0.534 0.153 0.012 -0.136 2.414 0.201 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.201 SERIES 090052 AND 090102 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 090051 AND 090052 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 85.26 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1882. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 15. 66. 136. 153. 136. RBAR 0.358 0.627 0.652 0.589 0.502 0.774 0.651 0.411 0.466 0.661 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.226 0.247 0.110 0.169 0.240 0.191 0.173 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.092 0.101 0.028 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.527 0.805 0.866 0.874 0.897 0.980 0.970 0.926 0.940 0.972 NSS 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 1.000 0.104 -0.829 4.273 0.112 0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.140 -0.071 0.154 24 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.51 1.02 1.21 1.72 3.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.76 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 -0.079 -0.136 -0.045 -0.045 -0.101 -0.105 0.135 -0.114 -0.083 PACF 0.007 -0.079 -0.135 -0.052 -0.069 -0.133 -0.139 0.093 -0.186 -0.135 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.192 0.195 0.198 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.078 -0.135 -0.044 -0.044 -0.100 -0.105 0.137 -0.115 -0.082 PACF 0.001 -0.078 -0.136 -0.053 -0.068 -0.133 -0.141 0.094 -0.185 -0.135 95% C.L. 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.190 0.192 0.195 0.198 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1872 1990 119 1.000 0.106 -0.768 3.922 0.103 0.235 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.233 -0.053 -0.158 -0.101 -0.097 -0.139 -0.110 0.066 -0.116 -0.129 PACF 0.233 -0.113 -0.126 -0.041 -0.090 -0.138 -0.088 0.069 -0.237 -0.119 95% C.L. 0.183 0.193 0.194 0.198 0.200 0.201 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.209 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.067 0.234 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES