RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS170N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS170N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 104 1 Severobaikalsk, trocken DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 104 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 540 5515-10930 1692 1996 - 104 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 104011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 2 GAPS / 1756 1764 / 1976 1987 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 104012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 3 GAPS / 1756 1764 / 1892 1905 / 1977 1987 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 104021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1838 1838 / 1857 1862 / 1899 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 104022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 104031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1895 1904 / 1915 1918 / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 104032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1903 1903 / 1941 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 104071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 3 GAPS / 1868 1882 / 1922 1922 / 1941 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 104072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 3 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1917 1922 / 1986 1996 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 104081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 5 GAPS / 1775 1784 / 1798 1809 / 1873 1873 / 1903 1903 / / 1940 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 104082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 61 IN 2 GAPS / 1778 1807 / 1895 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 104091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 104131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 104141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 6 GAPS / 1835 1842 / 1892 1893 / 1895 1896 / 1903 1903 / / 1917 1917 / 1983 1987 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 104142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1903 1903 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 104151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1829 1830 / 1834 1843 / 1990 1994 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 104152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1903 1903 / 1917 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 104161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104011 1746 1996 251 0.199 0.035 0.871 4.652 0.131 0.529 2 104012 1726 1987 262 0.177 0.028 0.594 4.717 0.140 0.293 3 104021 1831 1996 166 0.209 0.040 0.878 4.562 0.156 0.435 4 104022 1796 1996 201 0.204 0.025 0.026 3.432 0.121 0.265 5 104031 1757 1996 240 0.244 0.038 0.812 3.984 0.130 0.396 6 104032 1754 1996 243 0.254 0.039 0.437 3.608 0.120 0.490 7 104041 1861 1996 136 0.258 0.039 1.877 8.684 0.146 0.034 8 104042 1855 1996 142 0.270 0.037 0.711 3.805 0.128 0.234 9 104061 1692 1810 119 0.258 0.039 2.066 11.669 0.122 0.274 10 104062 1701 1810 110 0.281 0.042 1.283 5.817 0.133 0.194 11 104071 1762 1996 235 0.312 0.056 0.537 3.266 0.131 0.494 12 104072 1766 1996 231 0.303 0.042 0.780 4.627 0.121 0.284 13 104081 1775 1996 222 0.324 0.044 0.227 3.629 0.100 0.580 14 104082 1776 1996 221 0.286 0.052 0.617 3.203 0.110 0.657 15 104091 1878 1996 119 0.261 0.021 0.819 4.111 0.073 0.246 16 104092 1883 1996 114 0.305 0.033 1.249 6.605 0.082 0.478 17 104111 1834 1996 163 0.313 0.032 0.224 3.105 0.084 0.403 18 104112 1830 1996 167 0.306 0.032 0.574 3.774 0.079 0.562 19 104121 1844 1996 153 0.257 0.034 -0.194 3.573 0.109 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104122 1842 1996 155 0.211 0.042 0.680 4.165 0.148 0.385 21 104131 1874 1996 123 0.240 0.046 0.739 4.052 0.156 0.370 22 104132 1874 1996 123 0.245 0.041 1.084 6.007 0.142 0.238 23 104141 1835 1996 162 0.205 0.026 0.317 3.160 0.134 0.122 24 104142 1726 1956 231 0.240 0.042 0.721 3.368 0.134 0.458 25 104151 1824 1996 173 0.260 0.032 1.673 10.321 0.113 0.180 26 104152 1826 1996 171 0.264 0.031 0.936 5.124 0.109 0.244 27 104161 1766 1996 231 0.248 0.028 -0.185 2.716 0.087 0.508 28 104162 1758 1996 239 0.245 0.022 0.361 3.584 0.081 0.298 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1692 TO 1996 305 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 0.256 0.036 0.740 4.761 0.118 0.360 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.039 0.008 0.543 2.172 0.024 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 161 0.257 0.038 0.716 4.018 0.121 0.377 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 79 0.043 0.010 0.508 1.418 0.029 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.177 0.021 -0.194 2.716 0.073 0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.240 0.031 0.399 3.503 0.104 0.245 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 218 0.284 0.042 0.907 4.921 0.134 0.484 MAXIMUM VALUE 239 0.324 0.056 2.066 11.669 0.156 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 348 0.398 0.154 0.008 -0.085 2.501 -0.019 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.019 SERIES 104142 AND 104162 199 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 104071 AND 104072 231 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.06 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 45.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 10. 45. 66. 78. 190. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.705 0.206 0.223 0.318 0.396 0.408 0.501 0.463 0.409 SDEV 0.000 0.275 0.234 0.246 0.176 0.166 0.154 0.199 0.205 SERR 0.000 0.087 0.035 0.030 0.020 0.012 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.937 0.737 0.788 0.876 0.927 0.942 0.963 0.957 0.947 NSS 6.3 10.8 13.0 15.1 19.4 23.5 25.8 26.0 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1692 1996 305 0.257 0.026 0.980 5.475 0.092 0.246 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.379 0.286 -0.026 29 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.20 1.01 1.10 1.30 1.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 169. 92. 110. 139. 231. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.245 0.183 0.162 0.166 0.172 0.126 0.155 0.094 0.138 0.164 PACF 0.245 0.131 0.099 0.098 0.095 0.034 0.077 -0.002 0.066 0.083 95% C.L. 0.115 0.121 0.125 0.127 0.130 0.133 0.135 0.137 0.138 0.140 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.107 0.179 0.093 0.072 0.084 0.098 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 104011 1 0.07586333 0.01987435 0.00000000 0.18670271 2 104012 1 0.04294508 0.01308345 0.00000000 0.16477734 3 104021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003648 0.20548731 4 104022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003365 0.20050989 5 104031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020226 0.26929936 6 104032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031766 0.29243132 7 104041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011226 0.25039870 8 104042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015042 0.28047347 9 104061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007748 0.25291410 10 104062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002899 0.28242701 11 104071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044821 0.36355385 12 104072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030614 0.33549625 13 104081 1 0.12571222 0.00338462 0.00000000 0.23867977 14 104082 1 0.21806723 0.00723454 0.00000000 0.18722820 15 104091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025153 0.24238670 16 104092 1 0.04315804 0.04031988 0.00000000 0.29624233 17 104111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036225 0.34277210 18 104112 1 0.06746725 0.01456865 0.00000000 0.28129590 19 104121 1 0.05291544 0.06473853 0.00000000 0.25182256 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 104122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056711 0.25571847 21 104131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044154 0.21421702 22 104132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003618 0.24230973 23 104141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010430 0.21436721 24 104142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007347 0.24926399 25 104151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005382 0.26410139 26 104152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019020 0.28146935 27 104161 1 0.03774644 0.01504298 0.00000000 0.23731901 28 104162 1 0.06081762 0.00257730 0.00000000 0.20010100 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104011 1746 1996 251 1.000 0.150 0.750 4.292 0.130 0.355 2 104012 1726 1987 262 1.000 0.138 0.361 4.602 0.136 0.140 3 104021 1831 1996 166 1.000 0.187 0.903 4.640 0.151 0.416 4 104022 1796 1996 201 1.000 0.123 0.017 3.394 0.120 0.258 5 104031 1757 1996 240 1.000 0.144 0.825 4.356 0.129 0.285 6 104032 1754 1996 243 1.000 0.121 0.544 3.676 0.120 0.187 7 104041 1861 1996 136 1.000 0.152 1.907 8.909 0.145 0.020 8 104042 1855 1996 142 1.000 0.137 0.825 3.996 0.127 0.214 9 104061 1692 1810 119 1.000 0.149 2.084 12.011 0.121 0.266 10 104062 1701 1810 110 1.000 0.150 1.277 5.735 0.131 0.193 11 104071 1762 1996 235 1.000 0.143 1.029 4.747 0.131 0.193 12 104072 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.129 1.386 5.603 0.120 0.159 13 104081 1775 1996 222 1.000 0.121 0.012 3.333 0.100 0.479 14 104082 1776 1996 221 1.000 0.107 0.947 4.985 0.107 0.140 15 104091 1878 1996 119 1.000 0.075 0.899 4.395 0.072 0.201 16 104092 1883 1996 114 1.000 0.102 1.802 9.745 0.082 0.416 17 104111 1834 1996 163 1.000 0.086 0.256 2.677 0.084 0.184 18 104112 1830 1996 167 1.000 0.090 0.382 3.273 0.078 0.396 19 104121 1844 1996 153 1.000 0.126 -0.058 3.899 0.108 0.370 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104122 1842 1996 155 1.000 0.160 1.661 8.648 0.148 0.002 21 104131 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.183 1.202 6.068 0.158 0.241 22 104132 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.166 1.072 6.005 0.141 0.235 23 104141 1835 1996 162 1.000 0.128 0.337 2.863 0.135 0.114 24 104142 1726 1956 231 1.000 0.173 0.725 3.248 0.135 0.444 25 104151 1824 1996 173 1.000 0.122 1.605 9.944 0.116 0.162 26 104152 1826 1996 171 1.000 0.114 0.906 4.454 0.109 0.198 27 104161 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.107 -0.138 2.884 0.087 0.451 28 104162 1758 1996 239 1.000 0.083 0.224 3.165 0.081 0.195 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.131 0.848 5.198 0.118 0.247 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.029 0.616 2.448 0.024 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.129 0.862 4.425 0.121 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.040 0.890 2.506 0.031 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 110 1.000 0.075 -0.138 2.677 0.072 0.002 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.111 0.349 3.364 0.104 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.150 1.239 5.870 0.135 0.362 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.187 2.084 12.011 0.158 0.479 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 104011 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 104012 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 104021 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 104022 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 104031 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 104032 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 104041 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 104042 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 104061 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 104062 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 104071 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 104072 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 104081 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 104082 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 104091 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 104092 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 104111 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 104112 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 104121 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 104122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 104131 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 104132 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 104141 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 104142 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 104151 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 104152 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 104161 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 104162 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104011 1746 1996 251 0.999 0.143 0.749 4.618 0.130 0.300 2 104012 1726 1987 262 1.000 0.137 0.348 4.494 0.136 0.126 3 104021 1831 1996 166 0.999 0.166 0.650 4.291 0.151 0.275 4 104022 1796 1996 201 1.000 0.113 0.092 3.629 0.120 0.113 5 104031 1757 1996 240 1.000 0.141 0.838 4.628 0.129 0.255 6 104032 1754 1996 243 1.000 0.111 0.593 3.612 0.120 0.032 7 104041 1861 1996 136 1.000 0.149 1.873 8.738 0.145 0.000 8 104042 1855 1996 142 1.000 0.132 0.830 4.241 0.127 0.152 9 104061 1692 1810 119 1.000 0.144 2.379 14.544 0.121 0.209 10 104062 1701 1810 110 0.999 0.142 1.035 4.896 0.132 0.123 11 104071 1762 1996 235 0.999 0.131 1.194 5.021 0.131 0.054 12 104072 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.125 1.391 5.700 0.120 0.107 13 104081 1775 1996 222 0.999 0.110 0.068 3.343 0.100 0.380 14 104082 1776 1996 221 1.000 0.105 1.025 5.057 0.107 0.097 15 104091 1878 1996 119 1.000 0.071 0.802 3.851 0.072 0.118 16 104092 1883 1996 114 1.000 0.097 1.667 9.069 0.082 0.358 17 104111 1834 1996 163 1.000 0.083 0.376 3.015 0.084 0.122 18 104112 1830 1996 167 1.000 0.086 0.397 3.360 0.078 0.340 19 104121 1844 1996 153 0.999 0.117 0.173 3.874 0.108 0.275 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104122 1842 1996 155 1.000 0.154 1.658 8.577 0.148 -0.080 21 104131 1874 1996 123 0.999 0.175 1.567 7.699 0.158 0.169 22 104132 1874 1996 123 0.999 0.157 1.328 7.012 0.141 0.151 23 104141 1835 1996 162 1.000 0.125 0.333 2.830 0.135 0.080 24 104142 1726 1956 231 0.999 0.165 0.651 3.065 0.135 0.399 25 104151 1824 1996 173 1.000 0.121 1.542 9.336 0.116 0.149 26 104152 1826 1996 171 1.000 0.108 1.074 5.176 0.109 0.116 27 104161 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.100 -0.161 3.167 0.087 0.369 28 104162 1758 1996 239 1.000 0.081 0.277 3.236 0.081 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.125 0.884 5.360 0.118 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.028 0.624 2.679 0.024 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.125 0.816 4.556 0.121 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.037 0.998 2.870 0.031 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 110 0.999 0.071 -0.161 2.830 0.072 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 0.999 0.107 0.362 3.486 0.103 0.110 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.144 1.360 6.356 0.135 0.275 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.175 2.379 14.544 0.158 0.399 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 348 0.433 0.136 0.007 -0.381 2.771 0.008 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 104142 AND 104162 199 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 104041 AND 104042 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.06 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 45.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 10. 45. 66. 78. 190. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.697 0.276 0.237 0.333 0.387 0.441 0.508 0.486 0.433 SDEV 0.000 0.212 0.226 0.228 0.179 0.153 0.156 0.192 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.067 0.034 0.028 0.020 0.011 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.935 0.805 0.802 0.883 0.924 0.949 0.964 0.961 0.951 NSS 6.3 10.8 13.0 15.1 19.4 23.5 25.8 26.0 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1692 1996 305 0.997 0.091 1.193 5.443 0.094 0.040 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.364 0.137 -0.055 103 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.59 41.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.040 -0.008 -0.030 -0.040 0.008 -0.022 -0.010 -0.103 -0.045 0.011 PACF 0.040 -0.009 -0.029 -0.038 0.011 -0.024 -0.010 -0.104 -0.039 0.010 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.003 -0.074 0.003 -0.050 0.006 0.029 0.047 -0.064 -0.063 0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.003 2 -0.003 -0.074 3 -0.003 -0.074 0.003 4 -0.003 -0.078 0.002 -0.056 5 -0.002 -0.078 0.003 -0.056 0.006 6 -0.002 -0.077 0.003 -0.054 0.006 0.021 7 -0.003 -0.077 0.006 -0.054 0.010 0.021 0.049 8 0.000 -0.076 0.006 -0.058 0.010 0.017 0.049 -0.063 9 -0.004 -0.073 0.007 -0.057 0.007 0.017 0.044 -0.063 -0.057 10 -0.003 -0.072 0.006 -0.057 0.007 0.018 0.044 -0.062 -0.057 0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2034.75 2036.75 2037.08 2039.08 2040.12 2042.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2043.97 2045.25 2046.03 2047.05 2048.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 104011 0 0.091 2 104012 0 0.016 3 104021 0 0.076 4 104022 0 0.013 5 104031 0 0.065 6 104032 0 0.001 7 104041 0 0.000 8 104042 0 0.024 9 104061 0 0.045 10 104062 0 0.015 11 104071 0 0.003 12 104072 0 0.012 13 104081 0 0.145 14 104082 0 0.009 15 104091 0 0.014 16 104092 0 0.129 17 104111 0 0.015 18 104112 0 0.120 19 104121 0 0.078 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 104122 0 0.006 21 104131 0 0.029 22 104132 0 0.023 23 104141 0 0.007 24 104142 0 0.159 25 104151 0 0.022 26 104152 0 0.014 27 104161 0 0.137 28 104162 0 0.027 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.050 MEDIAN 0 0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.012 UPPER HINGE 0 0.077 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.159 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104011 1746 1996 251 1.000 0.143 0.749 4.618 0.130 0.300 2 104012 1726 1987 262 1.000 0.137 0.348 4.494 0.136 0.126 3 104021 1831 1996 166 1.000 0.166 0.650 4.291 0.151 0.275 4 104022 1796 1996 201 1.000 0.113 0.092 3.629 0.120 0.113 5 104031 1757 1996 240 1.000 0.141 0.838 4.628 0.129 0.255 6 104032 1754 1996 243 1.000 0.111 0.593 3.612 0.120 0.032 7 104041 1861 1996 136 1.000 0.149 1.873 8.738 0.145 0.000 8 104042 1855 1996 142 1.000 0.132 0.830 4.241 0.127 0.152 9 104061 1692 1810 119 1.000 0.144 2.379 14.544 0.121 0.209 10 104062 1701 1810 110 1.000 0.142 1.035 4.896 0.132 0.123 11 104071 1762 1996 235 1.000 0.131 1.194 5.021 0.131 0.054 12 104072 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.125 1.391 5.700 0.120 0.107 13 104081 1775 1996 222 1.000 0.110 0.068 3.343 0.100 0.380 14 104082 1776 1996 221 1.000 0.105 1.025 5.057 0.107 0.097 15 104091 1878 1996 119 1.000 0.071 0.802 3.851 0.072 0.118 16 104092 1883 1996 114 1.000 0.097 1.667 9.069 0.082 0.358 17 104111 1834 1996 163 1.000 0.083 0.376 3.015 0.084 0.122 18 104112 1830 1996 167 1.000 0.086 0.397 3.360 0.078 0.340 19 104121 1844 1996 153 1.000 0.117 0.173 3.874 0.108 0.275 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104122 1842 1996 155 1.000 0.154 1.658 8.577 0.147 -0.080 21 104131 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.175 1.567 7.699 0.158 0.169 22 104132 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.157 1.328 7.012 0.141 0.151 23 104141 1835 1996 162 1.000 0.125 0.333 2.830 0.135 0.080 24 104142 1726 1956 231 1.000 0.165 0.651 3.065 0.134 0.399 25 104151 1824 1996 173 1.000 0.121 1.542 9.336 0.116 0.149 26 104152 1826 1996 171 1.000 0.108 1.074 5.176 0.109 0.116 27 104161 1766 1996 231 1.000 0.100 -0.161 3.167 0.087 0.369 28 104162 1758 1996 239 1.000 0.081 0.277 3.236 0.081 0.162 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.125 0.884 5.360 0.118 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.028 0.624 2.679 0.024 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.125 0.816 4.556 0.121 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.037 0.998 2.870 0.031 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 110 1.000 0.071 -0.161 2.830 0.072 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.107 0.362 3.486 0.103 0.110 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.144 1.360 6.356 0.135 0.275 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.175 2.379 14.544 0.158 0.399 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 348 0.433 0.136 0.007 -0.381 2.771 0.008 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 104142 AND 104162 199 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 104041 AND 104042 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.06 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 45.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 10. 45. 66. 78. 190. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.697 0.276 0.237 0.333 0.387 0.441 0.508 0.486 0.433 SDEV 0.000 0.212 0.226 0.228 0.179 0.153 0.156 0.192 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.067 0.034 0.028 0.020 0.011 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.935 0.805 0.802 0.883 0.924 0.949 0.964 0.961 0.951 NSS 6.3 10.8 13.0 15.1 19.4 23.5 25.8 26.0 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1692 1996 305 0.997 0.091 1.194 5.446 0.094 0.040 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.365 0.137 -0.056 104 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.52 1.00 1.06 1.59 40.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.040 -0.008 -0.030 -0.040 0.008 -0.022 -0.010 -0.103 -0.045 0.011 PACF 0.040 -0.009 -0.029 -0.038 0.011 -0.024 -0.010 -0.104 -0.039 0.010 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1692 1996 305 0.997 0.091 1.194 5.446 0.094 0.040 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.040 -0.008 -0.030 -0.040 0.008 -0.022 -0.010 -0.103 -0.045 0.011 PACF 0.040 -0.009 -0.029 -0.038 0.011 -0.024 -0.010 -0.104 -0.039 0.010 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES