RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS171X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS171X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 104 1 Severobaikalsk, junge B. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 104 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 540 5515-10930 1874 1996 - 104 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 104211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 104212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 104221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 104222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1959 1959 / 1989 1996 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 104242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 104291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1937 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 104302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1987 1996 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 104311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 25 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 104312 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 104322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104211 1970 1996 27 0.820 0.086 -0.571 3.214 0.079 0.488 2 104212 1970 1996 27 0.785 0.079 0.176 2.902 0.087 0.362 3 104221 1957 1996 40 0.835 0.065 -0.095 2.774 0.065 0.422 4 104222 1959 1996 38 0.814 0.062 0.538 2.421 0.062 0.424 5 104231 1947 1996 50 0.770 0.094 -1.012 4.132 0.111 0.419 6 104232 1947 1996 50 0.826 0.086 -0.777 3.489 0.087 0.391 7 104241 1948 1996 49 0.902 0.071 -0.983 3.305 0.079 0.078 8 104242 1940 1996 57 0.886 0.069 -0.814 3.380 0.054 0.633 9 104251 1909 1996 88 0.763 0.102 -0.324 2.480 0.119 0.422 10 104252 1908 1994 87 0.832 0.089 -0.452 2.532 0.090 0.393 11 104261 1875 1996 122 0.761 0.109 -0.805 3.038 0.134 0.293 12 104262 1874 1996 123 0.769 0.099 -0.770 3.125 0.113 0.392 13 104271 1970 1996 27 0.830 0.083 -2.085 6.956 0.130 -0.309 14 104272 1970 1996 27 0.846 0.105 -0.862 2.758 0.121 0.205 15 104281 1949 1996 48 0.902 0.062 -0.618 3.858 0.062 0.320 16 104282 1950 1996 47 0.881 0.057 0.476 2.734 0.048 0.452 17 104291 1937 1996 60 0.950 0.057 -0.806 2.984 0.044 0.528 18 104292 1937 1996 60 0.915 0.072 -1.574 5.793 0.054 0.544 19 104301 1941 1996 56 0.824 0.112 -1.624 6.475 0.108 0.545 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104302 1941 1996 56 0.840 0.104 -0.733 2.442 0.098 0.514 21 104311 1949 1996 48 0.843 0.069 -0.821 3.274 0.085 0.152 22 104312 1945 1996 52 0.806 0.074 -0.756 3.641 0.100 -0.029 23 104321 1936 1996 61 0.903 0.079 -0.812 4.031 0.062 0.522 24 104322 1934 1996 63 0.890 0.085 -0.869 2.882 0.074 0.379 25 104331 1934 1996 63 0.794 0.126 -0.703 2.535 0.104 0.643 26 104332 1935 1996 62 0.807 0.106 -0.710 3.685 0.107 0.372 27 104341 1966 1996 31 0.807 0.088 -0.664 3.789 0.077 0.437 28 104342 1967 1996 30 0.901 0.094 -0.666 2.548 0.108 0.221 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1874 TO 1996 123 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 53 0.839 0.085 -0.704 3.471 0.088 0.365 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.052 0.018 0.548 1.159 0.025 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 49 0.831 0.086 -0.763 3.170 0.087 0.406 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.081 0.030 0.247 0.991 0.044 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 23 0.761 0.057 -2.085 2.421 0.044 -0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 30 0.807 0.070 -0.841 2.746 0.063 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 60 0.888 0.100 -0.595 3.737 0.108 0.501 MAXIMUM VALUE 123 0.950 0.126 0.538 6.956 0.134 0.643 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.303 0.270 0.014 -0.648 3.233 -0.554 0.895 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.554 SERIES 104211 AND 104302 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.895 SERIES 104211 AND 104212 27 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.33 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 6. 6. 6. 55. 190. 231. 378. RBAR 0.658 0.884 0.770 0.664 0.315 0.268 0.403 0.364 0.388 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.104 0.068 0.248 0.387 0.247 0.265 0.267 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.043 0.028 0.101 0.052 0.018 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.805 0.960 0.931 0.913 0.828 0.864 0.936 0.936 0.947 NSS 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.3 10.5 17.4 21.5 25.4 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1996 123 0.813 0.077 -1.460 5.048 0.081 0.322 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.019 -0.010 0.081 28 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.37 1.00 1.05 1.42 5.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 51. 22. 27. 39. 62. 123. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 0.089 0.105 0.069 0.119 0.166 0.082 0.011 0.040 0.003 PACF 0.320 -0.015 0.090 0.011 0.101 0.103 -0.008 -0.034 0.026 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.180 0.198 0.199 0.201 0.202 0.204 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.210 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.104 0.322 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 104211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01052029 0.65390664 2 104212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00829527 0.65568280 3 104221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163109 0.79190469 4 104222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027184 0.80069691 5 104231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00284226 0.84227753 6 104232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103625 0.79957551 7 104241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028469 0.90936226 8 104242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00239288 0.81622952 9 104251 1 0.11311273 0.01817706 0.00000000 0.70737749 10 104252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097889 0.87514031 11 104261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039204 0.73670912 12 104262 1 0.15004954 0.04267161 0.00000000 0.74143314 13 104271 1 0.05718876 0.04412940 0.00000000 0.79731482 14 104272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00602564 0.76119655 15 104281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017260 0.89785463 16 104282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00220629 0.82832563 17 104291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00238988 0.86552507 18 104292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240178 0.84207910 19 104301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267157 0.90060389 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 104302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00457450 0.93771267 21 104311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00634781 0.60669488 22 104312 1 0.11417306 0.04547688 0.00000000 0.78062242 23 104321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176785 0.84798360 24 104322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073158 0.85507822 25 104331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00198493 0.85780340 26 104332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094155 0.77727658 27 104341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00533871 0.72167742 28 104342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00459844 0.82972413 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104211 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.064 -0.110 2.475 0.071 0.014 2 104212 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.066 -0.264 3.267 0.076 -0.087 3 104221 1957 1996 40 1.000 0.088 -0.459 3.928 0.066 0.432 4 104222 1959 1996 38 1.000 0.075 0.316 3.293 0.060 0.413 5 104231 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.111 -0.916 3.708 0.109 0.217 6 104232 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.103 -0.628 3.133 0.085 0.395 7 104241 1948 1996 49 1.000 0.078 -1.029 3.460 0.077 0.067 8 104242 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.065 0.142 3.681 0.052 0.496 9 104251 1909 1996 88 1.000 0.130 -0.313 2.536 0.118 0.370 10 104252 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.101 -0.665 2.848 0.089 0.330 11 104261 1875 1996 122 1.000 0.143 -0.771 3.087 0.133 0.277 12 104262 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.121 -0.795 3.106 0.112 0.295 13 104271 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.099 -1.893 6.370 0.125 -0.332 14 104272 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.108 -1.550 5.271 0.116 0.064 15 104281 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.068 -0.643 3.919 0.061 0.317 16 104282 1950 1996 47 1.000 0.055 0.050 3.268 0.048 0.278 17 104291 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.060 -0.176 2.640 0.043 0.530 18 104292 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.065 -1.018 5.080 0.053 0.400 19 104301 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.129 -1.180 5.535 0.106 0.439 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104302 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.115 -0.127 2.316 0.098 0.398 21 104311 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.073 -1.327 6.060 0.075 -0.004 22 104312 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.093 -0.737 4.204 0.097 -0.146 23 104321 1936 1996 61 1.000 0.082 -0.092 3.577 0.061 0.494 24 104322 1934 1996 63 1.000 0.110 -0.872 2.767 0.072 0.537 25 104331 1934 1996 63 1.000 0.153 -0.571 2.228 0.102 0.569 26 104332 1935 1996 62 1.000 0.131 -0.517 3.375 0.105 0.363 27 104341 1966 1996 31 1.000 0.091 -1.680 5.995 0.073 0.309 28 104342 1967 1996 30 1.000 0.095 -0.592 2.826 0.104 0.096 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.095 -0.658 3.713 0.085 0.269 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.027 0.547 1.190 0.025 0.228 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.094 -0.635 3.334 0.081 0.324 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.042 0.747 1.229 0.042 0.341 MINIMUM VALUE 27 1.000 0.055 -1.893 2.228 0.043 -0.332 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 39 1.000 0.070 -0.967 2.837 0.063 0.081 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.113 -0.220 4.066 0.106 0.422 MAXIMUM VALUE 123 1.000 0.153 0.316 6.370 0.133 0.569 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 104211 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 104212 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 104221 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 104222 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 104231 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 104232 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 104241 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 104242 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 104251 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 104252 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 104261 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 104262 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 104271 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 104272 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 104281 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 104282 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 104291 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 104292 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 104301 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 104302 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 104311 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 104312 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 104321 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 104322 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 104331 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 104332 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 104341 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 104342 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104211 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.058 -0.325 2.482 0.072 -0.187 2 104212 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.063 0.122 3.366 0.075 -0.224 3 104221 1957 1996 40 0.999 0.064 -0.396 3.356 0.064 0.076 4 104222 1959 1996 38 1.000 0.066 -0.038 2.648 0.061 0.252 5 104231 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.099 -0.826 4.064 0.107 0.038 6 104232 1947 1996 50 0.999 0.081 -0.262 2.325 0.084 0.096 7 104241 1948 1996 49 1.000 0.070 -1.217 4.391 0.077 -0.116 8 104242 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.054 -0.003 3.153 0.051 0.292 9 104251 1909 1996 88 0.999 0.123 -0.395 2.717 0.118 0.308 10 104252 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.089 -0.755 3.081 0.089 0.149 11 104261 1875 1996 122 1.000 0.136 -0.540 3.161 0.132 0.181 12 104262 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.116 -0.766 3.093 0.112 0.228 13 104271 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.097 -1.942 6.151 0.124 -0.396 14 104272 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.099 -1.821 5.967 0.116 -0.133 15 104281 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.058 -0.927 3.985 0.061 0.119 16 104282 1950 1996 47 1.000 0.052 -0.038 3.663 0.048 0.204 17 104291 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.039 -0.830 5.337 0.042 -0.005 18 104292 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.049 -0.361 3.300 0.052 0.039 19 104301 1941 1996 56 0.999 0.101 -1.179 7.080 0.107 -0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104302 1941 1996 56 0.999 0.086 -1.172 3.943 0.097 -0.062 21 104311 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.071 -1.274 5.630 0.075 -0.072 22 104312 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.089 -1.028 4.767 0.097 -0.213 23 104321 1936 1996 61 1.000 0.066 0.226 2.656 0.060 0.280 24 104322 1934 1996 63 0.999 0.074 -0.478 3.483 0.070 -0.002 25 104331 1934 1996 63 0.999 0.106 0.277 5.646 0.102 0.017 26 104332 1935 1996 62 0.999 0.113 -0.658 3.939 0.105 0.156 27 104341 1966 1996 31 1.000 0.082 -2.002 7.224 0.072 0.190 28 104342 1967 1996 30 1.000 0.090 -0.638 2.840 0.102 0.037 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.082 -0.687 4.052 0.085 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.024 0.618 1.397 0.025 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.081 -0.648 3.573 0.081 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.035 0.806 1.965 0.043 0.254 MINIMUM VALUE 27 0.999 0.039 -2.002 2.325 0.042 -0.396 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 39 0.999 0.063 -1.100 3.087 0.063 -0.068 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.099 -0.294 5.052 0.106 0.186 MAXIMUM VALUE 123 1.000 0.136 0.277 7.224 0.132 0.308 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.431 0.170 0.009 -0.385 2.823 -0.090 0.814 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 104242 AND 104341 31 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.814 SERIES 104272 AND 104292 27 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.33 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 6. 6. 6. 55. 190. 231. 378. RBAR 0.723 0.869 0.818 0.647 0.311 0.322 0.382 0.406 0.481 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.082 0.061 0.263 0.241 0.234 0.202 0.194 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.025 0.107 0.033 0.017 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.849 0.954 0.947 0.907 0.826 0.892 0.930 0.945 0.963 NSS 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.3 10.5 17.4 21.5 25.4 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1996 123 1.001 0.086 -1.119 4.460 0.081 0.173 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.165 -0.062 0.121 33 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.64 1.02 1.13 1.77 3.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.06 0.00 0.94 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.172 -0.080 -0.065 -0.105 -0.033 0.037 -0.052 -0.118 -0.069 -0.112 PACF 0.172 -0.113 -0.031 -0.100 -0.005 0.024 -0.079 -0.106 -0.047 -0.121 95% C.L. 0.180 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.189 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.193 0.193 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 0.173 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.135 -0.110 -0.038 -0.139 0.071 0.093 0.035 -0.072 -0.083 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.135 2 -0.153 -0.131 3 -0.163 -0.142 -0.075 4 -0.176 -0.167 -0.104 -0.178 5 -0.175 -0.167 -0.103 -0.177 0.005 6 -0.175 -0.155 -0.096 -0.167 0.016 0.064 7 -0.179 -0.156 -0.087 -0.161 0.025 0.074 0.058 8 -0.176 -0.152 -0.085 -0.170 0.020 0.066 0.048 -0.054 9 -0.180 -0.149 -0.081 -0.168 0.008 0.060 0.037 -0.067 -0.073 10 -0.183 -0.152 -0.079 -0.166 0.008 0.052 0.033 -0.074 -0.081 -0.046 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 576.50 576.23 576.11 577.42 575.45 577.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 578.94 580.52 582.16 583.50 585.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.153 -0.131 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.50 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.63 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.153 -0.107 0.036 0.008 -0.006 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 104211 2 0.086 -0.208 -0.103 2 104212 2 0.164 -0.240 -0.060 3 104221 2 0.028 0.094 -0.135 4 104222 2 0.182 0.319 -0.256 5 104231 2 0.010 0.035 0.092 6 104232 2 0.107 0.073 0.273 7 104241 2 0.036 -0.130 -0.104 8 104242 2 0.097 0.273 0.075 9 104251 2 0.100 0.291 0.062 10 104252 2 0.038 0.165 -0.101 11 104261 2 0.044 0.197 -0.089 12 104262 2 0.057 0.241 -0.051 13 104271 2 0.227 -0.488 -0.218 14 104272 2 0.160 -0.150 -0.111 15 104281 2 0.100 0.123 -0.005 16 104282 2 0.123 0.220 -0.060 17 104291 2 0.020 -0.006 -0.116 18 104292 2 0.032 0.046 -0.112 19 104301 2 0.134 -0.093 -0.360 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 104302 2 0.027 -0.057 0.102 21 104311 2 0.072 -0.090 -0.230 22 104312 2 0.128 -0.283 -0.289 23 104321 2 0.090 0.284 0.013 24 104322 2 0.001 -0.003 0.003 25 104331 2 0.004 0.016 0.055 26 104332 2 0.116 0.173 -0.099 27 104341 2 0.095 0.236 -0.217 28 104342 2 0.219 0.052 -0.370 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.089 0.039 -0.086 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.063 0.199 0.146 MEDIAN 2 0.092 0.049 -0.100 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.091 0.300 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.001 -0.488 -0.370 LOWER HINGE 2 0.034 -0.091 -0.176 UPPER HINGE 2 0.126 0.209 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.227 0.319 0.273 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 104211 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.056 -0.523 2.394 0.063 -0.019 2 104212 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.061 -0.011 3.461 0.067 -0.018 3 104221 1957 1996 40 1.000 0.063 -0.413 3.734 0.066 -0.013 4 104222 1959 1996 38 1.000 0.062 -0.229 2.955 0.071 -0.058 5 104231 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.099 -0.816 3.975 0.109 0.002 6 104232 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.077 -0.341 2.467 0.082 0.032 7 104241 1948 1996 49 1.000 0.069 -0.964 3.839 0.072 -0.011 8 104242 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.051 -0.562 3.364 0.060 -0.004 9 104251 1909 1996 88 1.000 0.117 -0.371 3.064 0.136 0.003 10 104252 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.087 -0.852 3.369 0.096 0.009 11 104261 1875 1996 122 1.000 0.133 -0.577 3.173 0.142 -0.005 12 104262 1874 1996 123 1.000 0.113 -0.841 3.522 0.124 0.002 13 104271 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.086 -2.176 7.370 0.098 -0.050 14 104272 1970 1996 27 1.000 0.097 -1.644 5.541 0.111 -0.037 15 104281 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.058 -0.977 4.233 0.064 0.001 16 104282 1950 1996 47 1.000 0.051 -0.251 4.027 0.052 -0.016 17 104291 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.038 -0.855 5.562 0.042 -0.010 18 104292 1937 1996 60 1.000 0.048 -0.300 3.298 0.053 -0.018 19 104301 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.094 -1.736 7.320 0.099 -0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 104302 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.085 -1.170 3.943 0.093 -0.009 21 104311 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.069 -0.961 4.880 0.070 -0.025 22 104312 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.083 -0.517 4.019 0.085 -0.008 23 104321 1936 1996 61 1.000 0.063 -0.037 2.943 0.068 0.000 24 104322 1934 1996 63 1.000 0.074 -0.473 3.474 0.070 0.000 25 104331 1934 1996 63 1.000 0.106 0.307 5.753 0.103 0.007 26 104332 1935 1996 62 1.000 0.111 -0.792 4.076 0.117 -0.028 27 104341 1966 1996 31 1.000 0.078 -2.219 7.784 0.081 -0.018 28 104342 1967 1996 30 1.000 0.084 -0.495 2.381 0.098 -0.096 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.079 -0.743 4.140 0.085 -0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.023 0.607 1.471 0.026 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.078 -0.569 3.787 0.082 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.034 0.607 1.321 0.034 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 27 1.000 0.038 -2.219 2.381 0.042 -0.096 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 39 1.000 0.061 -0.963 3.235 0.066 -0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 61 1.000 0.096 -0.356 4.557 0.101 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 123 1.000 0.133 0.307 7.784 0.142 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.425 0.165 0.008 -0.463 2.801 -0.095 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.095 SERIES 104242 AND 104341 31 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 104311 AND 104312 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 34.33 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 1. 6. 6. 6. 55. 190. 231. 378. RBAR 0.775 0.859 0.782 0.624 0.378 0.349 0.407 0.401 0.470 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.094 0.089 0.263 0.229 0.215 0.195 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.039 0.036 0.107 0.031 0.016 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.881 0.951 0.935 0.899 0.864 0.903 0.937 0.944 0.961 NSS 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.3 10.5 17.4 21.5 25.4 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1996 123 1.001 0.083 -1.073 4.406 0.085 0.011 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.120 -0.046 0.104 29 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.94 1.01 1.09 2.03 3.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.04 0.00 0.96 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.011 -0.095 -0.036 -0.085 -0.013 0.066 -0.039 -0.100 -0.046 -0.093 PACF 0.011 -0.095 -0.035 -0.094 -0.018 0.048 -0.050 -0.099 -0.054 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.180 0.180 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.187 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.009 -0.034 -0.087 -0.020 0.050 -0.046 -0.103 -0.059 -0.118 PACF -0.004 -0.009 -0.035 -0.088 -0.022 0.047 -0.052 -0.114 -0.063 -0.120 95% C.L. 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.185 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.004 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1996 123 1.001 0.084 -0.988 4.561 0.093 -0.137 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.136 -0.102 0.014 -0.079 -0.015 0.077 -0.036 -0.088 -0.015 -0.069 PACF -0.136 -0.123 -0.018 -0.096 -0.044 0.050 -0.026 -0.094 -0.056 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.180 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 -0.137 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES