RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS173N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS173N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 106 1 Tschita,Dźnen S. junge B DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 106 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 700 5650-11850 1917 1996 - 106 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 106271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 106211 1920 1996 77 0.218 0.019 0.646 4.165 0.072 0.340 2 106212 1926 1996 71 0.199 0.018 0.486 4.043 0.086 0.329 3 106221 1917 1996 80 0.246 0.025 0.729 3.790 0.101 0.163 4 106222 1917 1996 80 0.249 0.029 0.250 2.691 0.111 0.246 5 106231 1925 1996 72 0.297 0.039 1.304 4.671 0.110 0.424 6 106232 1933 1996 64 0.308 0.036 0.769 3.599 0.098 0.324 7 106241 1942 1996 55 0.295 0.042 0.047 3.939 0.114 0.417 8 106242 1942 1996 55 0.298 0.037 0.399 2.981 0.095 0.547 9 106251 1928 1996 69 0.261 0.032 2.180 9.172 0.104 0.339 10 106252 1928 1996 69 0.259 0.039 0.572 2.315 0.098 0.624 11 106261 1940 1996 57 0.280 0.026 0.558 3.057 0.082 0.399 12 106262 1940 1996 57 0.265 0.019 0.590 3.307 0.077 0.039 13 106271 1947 1996 50 0.254 0.031 1.334 4.103 0.100 0.305 14 106272 1948 1996 49 0.230 0.033 -2.020 8.341 0.109 0.413 15 106281 1945 1996 52 0.260 0.027 1.037 4.127 0.091 0.285 16 106282 1945 1996 52 0.248 0.025 0.539 3.770 0.076 0.440 17 106291 1946 1996 51 0.238 0.020 -0.091 2.697 0.071 0.517 18 106292 1946 1996 51 0.236 0.021 -0.502 2.660 0.070 0.528 19 106301 1949 1996 48 0.252 0.029 -0.129 2.797 0.084 0.588 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 106302 1949 1996 48 0.261 0.023 -0.053 2.988 0.101 -0.035 21 106311 1941 1996 56 0.299 0.025 -0.086 4.232 0.086 0.121 22 106312 1941 1996 56 0.280 0.029 1.029 4.758 0.093 0.331 23 106321 1942 1996 55 0.260 0.021 0.239 4.828 0.072 0.314 24 106322 1942 1996 55 0.252 0.025 0.468 5.576 0.092 0.242 25 106331 1946 1996 51 0.256 0.041 1.277 4.884 0.078 0.764 26 106332 1946 1996 51 0.259 0.037 1.329 4.263 0.080 0.676 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1917 TO 1996 80 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 58 0.260 0.029 0.496 4.144 0.090 0.372 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.026 0.007 0.782 1.592 0.014 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 55 0.259 0.028 0.549 3.991 0.091 0.340 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.032 0.014 0.983 1.683 0.022 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 34 0.199 0.018 -2.020 2.315 0.070 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 51 0.248 0.023 0.047 2.988 0.078 0.285 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.280 0.036 1.029 4.671 0.101 0.517 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 0.308 0.042 2.180 9.172 0.114 0.764 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.342 0.181 0.010 -0.505 3.274 -0.239 0.708 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.239 SERIES 106251 AND 106301 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.708 SERIES 106211 AND 106321 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1927. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 21. 45. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.636 0.377 0.457 0.293 0.277 0.241 SDEV 0.000 0.189 0.226 0.241 0.233 0.243 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.034 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.899 0.887 0.949 0.915 0.909 0.892 NSS 5.1 13.0 22.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1996 80 0.259 0.019 0.914 4.613 0.061 0.462 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.209 0.151 -0.004 24 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.14 1.00 1.04 1.18 2.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.48 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 55. 18. 48. 51. 69. 80. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.457 0.425 0.327 0.258 0.241 0.260 0.214 0.108 0.005 -0.010 PACF 0.457 0.274 0.083 0.019 0.056 0.107 0.019 -0.115 -0.154 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.224 0.266 0.298 0.316 0.326 0.335 0.345 0.351 0.353 0.353 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.291 0.329 0.295 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 106211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036490 0.23215310 2 106212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007009 0.19635011 3 106221 1 0.05131517 0.21844423 0.00000000 0.24299766 4 106222 1 0.02810646 0.25983092 0.00000000 0.24744092 5 106231 1 0.15955062 0.18909916 0.00000000 0.28643793 6 106232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087134 0.33613095 7 106241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142424 0.33478788 8 106242 1 0.09358633 0.05466355 0.00000000 0.26957712 9 106251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003471 0.25950980 10 106252 1 0.11978994 0.02470236 0.00000000 0.20263064 11 106261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026381 0.28800127 12 106262 1 0.03367398 0.05326820 0.00000000 0.25515929 13 106271 1 0.06685765 0.13038827 0.00000000 0.24752438 14 106272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093878 0.25306123 15 106281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050798 0.27307692 16 106282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077606 0.26902714 17 106291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066878 0.25542745 18 106292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091131 0.25996861 19 106301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156535 0.29001772 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 106302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021005 0.26577127 21 106311 1 0.08180638 0.00847235 0.00000000 0.23460460 22 106312 1 0.08558577 0.19507892 0.00000000 0.27308372 23 106321 1 0.05595868 0.14569816 0.00000000 0.25333360 24 106322 1 0.11287044 0.48734528 0.00000000 0.24855031 25 106331 1 0.12351499 0.08138091 0.00000000 0.22815987 26 106332 1 0.13538194 0.11087415 0.00000000 0.23665592 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 106211 1920 1996 77 1.000 0.077 0.247 3.292 0.072 0.229 2 106212 1926 1996 71 1.000 0.092 0.454 3.997 0.084 0.319 3 106221 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.096 0.867 4.483 0.101 0.072 4 106222 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.115 0.352 2.807 0.110 0.228 5 106231 1925 1996 72 1.000 0.101 0.884 3.680 0.109 0.012 6 106232 1933 1996 64 1.000 0.105 0.654 2.877 0.097 0.179 7 106241 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.120 0.381 4.109 0.112 0.226 8 106242 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.095 0.476 3.563 0.093 0.254 9 106251 1928 1996 69 1.000 0.122 2.149 8.989 0.102 0.333 10 106252 1928 1996 69 1.000 0.106 0.465 3.274 0.098 0.173 11 106261 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.092 0.400 2.803 0.080 0.378 12 106262 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.065 0.429 2.796 0.076 -0.131 13 106271 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.098 0.655 3.560 0.098 0.148 14 106272 1948 1996 49 1.000 0.135 -1.442 6.942 0.107 0.344 15 106281 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.097 0.789 4.478 0.089 0.223 16 106282 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.090 0.618 3.098 0.075 0.335 17 106291 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.075 0.462 3.141 0.069 0.356 18 106292 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.069 0.099 3.118 0.069 0.201 19 106301 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.076 -0.433 2.746 0.082 0.178 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 106302 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.087 0.048 2.745 0.098 -0.035 21 106311 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.079 -0.175 3.237 0.085 0.069 22 106312 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.087 0.382 3.404 0.093 0.079 23 106321 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.066 -0.601 2.986 0.071 0.027 24 106322 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.087 -0.019 5.389 0.089 0.074 25 106331 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.102 0.504 4.057 0.077 0.536 26 106332 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.079 0.411 3.564 0.077 0.225 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 1.000 0.093 0.348 3.813 0.089 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.018 0.621 1.411 0.014 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 55 1.000 0.092 0.420 3.348 0.089 0.212 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.024 0.518 1.071 0.022 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.065 -1.442 2.745 0.069 -0.131 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.079 0.099 2.986 0.077 0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.102 0.618 4.057 0.098 0.319 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.135 2.149 8.989 0.112 0.536 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 106211 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 106212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 106221 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 106222 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 106231 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 106232 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 106241 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 106242 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 106251 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 106252 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 106261 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 106262 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 106271 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 106272 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 106281 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 106282 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 106291 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 106292 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 106301 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 106302 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 106311 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 106312 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 106321 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 106322 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 106331 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 106332 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 106211 1920 1996 77 1.000 0.072 0.395 3.315 0.072 0.132 2 106212 1926 1996 71 1.000 0.087 0.423 3.919 0.085 0.256 3 106221 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.093 0.753 4.095 0.101 0.025 4 106222 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.111 0.305 2.763 0.110 0.178 5 106231 1925 1996 72 1.000 0.100 0.869 3.592 0.108 -0.011 6 106232 1933 1996 64 0.999 0.098 0.723 3.177 0.097 0.082 7 106241 1942 1996 55 0.999 0.110 0.514 4.508 0.112 0.117 8 106242 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.089 0.607 3.250 0.092 0.187 9 106251 1928 1996 69 1.000 0.117 1.992 8.314 0.102 0.273 10 106252 1928 1996 69 0.999 0.094 0.806 4.381 0.097 -0.051 11 106261 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.083 0.456 3.105 0.081 0.238 12 106262 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.065 0.433 2.789 0.076 -0.142 13 106271 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.093 0.665 3.517 0.099 0.061 14 106272 1948 1996 49 0.998 0.105 -0.330 5.512 0.105 -0.024 15 106281 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.092 0.819 4.424 0.089 0.158 16 106282 1945 1996 52 0.999 0.080 1.039 3.911 0.074 0.203 17 106291 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.066 0.104 2.968 0.069 0.184 18 106292 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.066 0.098 3.390 0.069 0.110 19 106301 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.072 -0.393 2.554 0.082 0.093 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 106302 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.083 0.192 2.683 0.098 -0.125 21 106311 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.076 -0.157 3.095 0.085 -0.006 22 106312 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.082 0.503 2.957 0.093 -0.003 23 106321 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.058 -0.034 3.687 0.071 -0.243 24 106322 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.083 -0.276 5.328 0.090 -0.019 25 106331 1946 1996 51 0.999 0.093 0.273 3.954 0.077 0.436 26 106332 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.070 -0.061 3.153 0.077 0.047 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 1.000 0.086 0.412 3.782 0.089 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.015 0.508 1.199 0.013 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 55 1.000 0.085 0.428 3.453 0.089 0.088 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.021 0.625 1.000 0.022 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.998 0.058 -0.393 2.554 0.069 -0.243 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.072 0.098 3.095 0.077 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.094 0.723 4.095 0.099 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.117 1.992 8.314 0.112 0.436 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.284 0.164 0.009 -0.317 3.462 -0.237 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.237 SERIES 106251 AND 106301 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 106231 AND 106232 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1927. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 21. 45. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.456 0.438 0.397 0.296 0.287 0.296 SDEV 0.000 0.139 0.261 0.255 0.228 0.225 SERR 0.000 0.030 0.039 0.014 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.810 0.910 0.936 0.916 0.913 0.916 NSS 5.1 13.0 22.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1996 80 0.999 0.052 1.008 3.992 0.058 0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.189 0.090 -0.023 19 61 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.26 1.01 1.07 1.33 4.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.27 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.016 0.033 -0.074 -0.171 -0.086 0.126 0.218 0.045 -0.139 -0.118 PACF 0.016 0.033 -0.075 -0.171 -0.080 0.139 0.213 -0.003 -0.198 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.225 0.232 0.233 0.236 0.246 0.247 0.251 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.048 0.012 -0.101 -0.235 -0.084 0.121 0.295 0.032 -0.115 -0.105 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.048 2 -0.048 0.010 3 -0.047 0.005 -0.100 4 -0.072 0.006 -0.112 -0.247 5 -0.101 -0.007 -0.111 -0.256 -0.119 6 -0.088 0.020 -0.099 -0.255 -0.109 0.106 7 -0.119 0.052 -0.025 -0.226 -0.114 0.132 0.292 8 -0.122 0.051 -0.024 -0.224 -0.114 0.131 0.293 0.008 9 -0.120 0.107 0.001 -0.246 -0.157 0.127 0.303 -0.015 -0.191 10 -0.133 0.106 0.022 -0.237 -0.168 0.110 0.303 -0.008 -0.200 -0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 359.50 361.31 363.30 364.49 361.44 362.30 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 363.39 358.25 360.24 359.25 360.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 7 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.119 0.052 -0.025 -0.226 -0.114 0.132 0.292 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.36 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.00 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 7) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.119 0.066 -0.039 -0.215 -0.065 0.128 0.264 0.004 0.064 -.0752 -0.134 -0.023 0.055 0.083 0.042 0.027 -0.053 -0.061 -0.014 0.0161 0.037 0.032 0.009 -0.026 -0.027 -0.012 0.005 0.019 0.018 0.0038 -0.011 -0.013 -0.008 0.002 0.010 0.009 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -.0048 0.000 0.005 0.005 0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.003 0.000 0.002 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 106211 7 0.125 0.064 0.254 0.167 0.034 -0.074 -0.060 0.051 2 106212 7 0.208 0.253 0.010 0.219 0.101 -0.296 0.045 -0.086 3 106221 7 0.038 0.022 -0.060 -0.017 -0.134 0.017 -0.073 -0.090 4 106222 7 0.115 0.197 0.062 0.058 -0.202 0.188 -0.016 0.103 5 106231 7 0.175 0.077 -0.104 0.110 -0.384 0.142 -0.085 0.125 6 106232 7 0.208 0.039 0.069 0.040 -0.336 0.045 0.106 0.261 7 106241 7 0.107 0.106 0.028 -0.078 -0.125 -0.018 0.074 0.001 8 106242 7 0.161 0.133 -0.130 -0.088 -0.291 -0.071 -0.091 -0.007 9 106251 7 0.136 0.255 -0.029 -0.112 0.034 -0.013 -0.155 -0.120 10 106252 7 0.094 -0.055 0.158 0.150 -0.158 -0.075 -0.054 0.035 11 106261 7 0.338 0.339 -0.107 -0.188 0.090 -0.324 0.327 -0.056 12 106262 7 0.164 -0.225 -0.127 -0.086 -0.281 -0.155 -0.225 -0.109 13 106271 7 0.287 -0.089 -0.109 -0.239 -0.160 -0.252 -0.035 0.273 14 106272 7 0.195 -0.080 -0.166 -0.001 -0.183 -0.082 0.076 0.291 15 106281 7 0.116 0.132 0.091 0.017 -0.074 -0.134 -0.040 0.026 16 106282 7 0.161 0.238 -0.105 -0.128 0.097 -0.193 0.055 0.064 17 106291 7 0.176 0.106 -0.116 -0.166 -0.072 -0.232 -0.198 0.051 18 106292 7 0.266 -0.073 -0.076 -0.302 -0.362 -0.134 -0.093 0.030 19 106301 7 0.229 0.138 0.128 0.042 -0.255 -0.230 0.273 -0.144 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 106302 7 0.098 -0.181 -0.216 -0.113 -0.078 -0.140 -0.020 -0.004 21 106311 7 0.216 -0.017 0.152 0.131 -0.162 -0.208 0.215 0.165 22 106312 7 0.268 -0.055 -0.302 -0.291 -0.108 -0.283 0.168 -0.093 23 106321 7 0.172 -0.320 -0.185 -0.257 -0.046 -0.154 -0.247 -0.048 24 106322 7 0.063 -0.031 0.041 -0.109 -0.116 -0.004 -0.034 -0.194 25 106331 7 0.323 0.460 -0.064 -0.100 -0.077 -0.145 0.208 -0.343 26 106332 7 0.089 0.077 0.037 0.005 -0.159 0.013 0.138 -0.197 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 7 0.174 0.058 -0.033 -0.051 -0.131 -0.108 0.010 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.078 0.176 0.131 0.143 0.136 0.130 0.149 0.150 MEDIAN 7 0.168 0.070 -0.062 -0.082 -0.129 -0.134 -0.027 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 0.193 0.178 0.170 0.130 0.196 0.191 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 7 0.038 -0.320 -0.302 -0.302 -0.384 -0.324 -0.247 -0.343 LOWER HINGE 7 0.115 -0.055 -0.116 -0.128 -0.202 -0.208 -0.085 -0.093 UPPER HINGE 7 0.216 0.138 0.062 0.042 -0.072 -0.013 0.106 0.064 MAXIMUM VALUE 7 0.338 0.460 0.254 0.219 0.101 0.188 0.327 0.291 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 106211 1920 1996 77 1.000 0.067 0.400 3.416 0.073 -0.005 2 106212 1926 1996 71 1.000 0.078 0.390 3.878 0.092 -0.007 3 106221 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.091 0.832 4.295 0.100 0.004 4 106222 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.105 0.368 2.910 0.115 0.008 5 106231 1925 1996 72 1.000 0.091 0.465 3.372 0.104 -0.003 6 106232 1933 1996 64 1.000 0.087 0.222 3.361 0.091 -0.001 7 106241 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.108 0.479 4.415 0.118 0.002 8 106242 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.081 0.474 3.140 0.094 -0.008 9 106251 1928 1996 69 1.000 0.108 1.361 6.163 0.116 -0.004 10 106252 1928 1996 69 1.000 0.090 0.814 4.150 0.093 0.001 11 106261 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.070 0.373 3.134 0.081 -0.012 12 106262 1940 1996 57 1.000 0.060 0.323 2.653 0.068 -0.017 13 106271 1947 1996 50 1.000 0.078 0.379 3.441 0.087 0.029 14 106272 1948 1996 49 1.000 0.095 -0.234 4.197 0.098 -0.011 15 106281 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.089 1.070 5.199 0.094 -0.001 16 106282 1945 1996 52 1.000 0.075 0.904 3.841 0.079 0.015 17 106291 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.060 0.784 3.651 0.066 0.004 18 106292 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.057 0.144 3.776 0.066 -0.005 19 106301 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.064 -0.282 3.132 0.069 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 106302 1949 1996 48 1.000 0.080 0.279 2.791 0.090 -0.006 21 106311 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.070 -0.243 2.854 0.078 0.035 22 106312 1941 1996 56 1.000 0.071 0.467 3.548 0.081 0.003 23 106321 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.053 -0.328 2.793 0.058 0.004 24 106322 1942 1996 55 1.000 0.080 0.057 4.892 0.091 -0.007 25 106331 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.076 -0.077 3.620 0.090 0.007 26 106332 1946 1996 51 1.000 0.067 0.012 3.323 0.075 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 59 1.000 0.079 0.363 3.690 0.087 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.015 0.426 0.817 0.016 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 55 1.000 0.078 0.376 3.495 0.090 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.023 0.423 1.016 0.019 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.053 -0.328 2.653 0.058 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.067 0.057 3.134 0.075 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.090 0.479 4.150 0.094 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.108 1.361 6.163 0.118 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.258 0.158 0.009 -0.008 2.956 -0.149 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.149 SERIES 106321 AND 106331 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 106281 AND 106282 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1927. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 1. 21. 45. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.461 0.463 0.376 0.264 0.228 0.240 SDEV 0.000 0.122 0.274 0.240 0.225 0.231 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.041 0.013 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.814 0.918 0.930 0.903 0.885 0.892 NSS 5.1 13.0 22.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.047 1.120 4.275 0.054 -0.097 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.225 0.104 -0.039 17 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.07 0.27 1.00 1.03 1.30 3.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.56 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.096 0.064 -0.038 -0.058 -0.057 0.085 0.144 -0.021 -0.124 -0.061 PACF -0.096 0.055 -0.027 -0.068 -0.066 0.082 0.167 -0.010 -0.160 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.224 0.226 0.227 0.227 0.228 0.228 0.230 0.234 0.235 0.238 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.033 0.028 0.045 0.057 0.014 -0.037 -0.044 -0.149 -0.087 PACF 0.004 0.033 0.028 0.044 0.055 0.010 -0.044 -0.050 -0.154 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.226 0.226 0.231 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.013 -0.001 0.033 0.029 0.049 0.060 0.009 -0.047 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1996 80 1.000 0.052 1.093 4.061 0.058 -0.004 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.010 -0.148 -0.264 -0.106 0.122 0.346 0.079 -0.054 -0.138 PACF -0.004 -0.010 -0.148 -0.272 -0.136 0.088 0.312 0.033 -0.109 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.229 0.243 0.246 0.249 0.272 0.273 0.273 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES