RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 110 1 Nirukda, P.Tung. WIDTH_EARLY PCOB - 110 2 Russia Black Spuce 160 6156-9509 1702 1994 - 110 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 110061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 0.985 0.287 0.836 3.560 0.155 0.767 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.160 0.369 0.142 3.112 0.179 0.752 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.041 0.310 0.486 3.068 0.223 0.547 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.161 0.391 1.038 4.227 0.206 0.688 5 110031 1860 1994 135 0.796 0.360 0.541 2.594 0.182 0.849 6 110032 1858 1994 137 0.953 0.288 0.396 2.685 0.172 0.771 7 110041 1839 1994 156 0.979 0.586 1.459 4.248 0.232 0.845 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.828 0.472 1.426 4.655 0.232 0.814 9 110051 1861 1994 134 0.891 0.360 1.322 4.664 0.184 0.757 10 110052 1880 1994 115 0.944 0.200 0.339 2.632 0.156 0.529 11 110061 1859 1994 136 0.834 0.317 0.836 3.709 0.166 0.830 12 110062 1862 1994 133 0.959 0.293 0.374 3.034 0.155 0.772 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.961 0.543 0.582 2.433 0.264 0.872 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.161 0.560 0.757 3.548 0.201 0.770 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.373 0.205 0.041 2.169 0.220 0.874 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.409 0.326 0.931 2.955 0.248 0.938 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.476 0.313 1.154 3.663 0.221 0.911 18 110092 1795 1994 200 0.553 0.207 0.974 4.473 0.212 0.731 19 110101 1711 1994 284 0.380 0.167 0.614 2.824 0.227 0.803 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.339 0.242 1.900 7.297 0.274 0.870 21 110111 1875 1994 120 0.861 0.274 0.467 2.379 0.163 0.804 22 110112 1855 1994 140 0.798 0.318 0.198 2.341 0.170 0.876 23 110121 1860 1994 135 0.881 0.490 1.442 5.749 0.183 0.862 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.818 0.556 1.039 2.884 0.189 0.940 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1702 TO 1994 293 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.814 0.351 0.804 3.538 0.201 0.799 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.257 0.123 0.480 1.210 0.035 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.871 0.318 0.796 3.090 0.195 0.809 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.296 0.151 0.665 1.579 0.054 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.339 0.167 0.041 2.169 0.155 0.529 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.674 0.280 0.432 2.659 0.171 0.762 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.970 0.431 1.097 4.238 0.225 0.871 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.161 0.586 1.900 7.297 0.274 0.940 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.180 0.342 0.021 -0.244 2.493 -0.768 0.857 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.768 SERIES 110112 AND 110122 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.857 SERIES 110031 AND 110032 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.680 0.758 0.295 0.273 0.518 0.502 0.138 0.163 0.223 SDEV 0.171 0.073 0.332 0.205 0.155 0.380 0.337 0.339 0.336 SERR 0.070 0.030 0.105 0.053 0.040 0.043 0.022 0.020 0.020 EPS 0.904 0.942 0.708 0.719 0.936 0.955 0.789 0.824 0.874 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.574 0.288 -0.326 2.106 0.169 0.922 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.860 0.524 -0.012 59 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.93 1.01 1.14 2.07 41.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 135. 48. 85. 130. 178. 293. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.918 0.885 0.858 0.839 0.822 0.803 0.786 0.773 0.765 0.753 PACF 0.918 0.264 0.117 0.101 0.067 0.022 0.027 0.040 0.064 0.013 95% C.L. 0.117 0.192 0.241 0.280 0.312 0.340 0.365 0.388 0.408 0.427 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.869 0.610 0.170 0.032 0.062 0.087 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00413941 1.26057363 2 110012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422100 1.44491756 3 110021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00366851 1.27231610 4 110022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00176694 1.27601385 5 110031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00386470 0.53305250 6 110032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00282571 0.75838345 7 110041 1 1.78267443 0.02121961 0.00000000 0.46575984 8 110042 1 1.48756409 0.02781128 0.00000000 0.44135135 9 110051 1 2.08368111 0.33833328 0.00000000 0.85249668 10 110052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066235 0.90540963 11 110061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157805 0.72409058 12 110062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00446063 0.65993506 13 110071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00605417 0.65789735 14 110072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060504 1.13515961 15 110081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00106614 0.21679001 16 110082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044622 0.34331360 17 110091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00176335 0.68082589 18 110092 1 0.43251544 0.00865440 0.00000000 0.34794697 19 110101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014074 0.39980865 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081296 0.45464987 21 110111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150288 0.77007562 22 110112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00447528 0.48227853 23 110121 1 1.75289845 0.03530802 0.00000000 0.52253139 24 110122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00935151 1.50500703 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 0.999 0.232 0.578 3.088 0.154 0.645 2 110012 1861 1994 134 0.997 0.282 -0.068 2.966 0.178 0.686 3 110021 1870 1994 125 0.999 0.273 0.796 3.607 0.220 0.475 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.328 0.937 3.979 0.205 0.669 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.010 0.478 1.783 7.948 0.181 0.794 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.002 0.305 1.323 5.466 0.170 0.762 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.002 0.322 0.193 2.587 0.230 0.607 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.999 0.323 0.633 3.319 0.230 0.596 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.362 1.123 4.192 0.181 0.749 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.211 0.365 2.618 0.154 0.507 11 110061 1859 1994 136 0.999 0.370 0.909 4.125 0.169 0.808 12 110062 1862 1994 133 0.999 0.251 0.433 3.122 0.154 0.631 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.991 0.530 0.664 2.760 0.262 0.831 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.484 0.784 3.604 0.199 0.761 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.984 0.539 0.536 2.852 0.219 0.851 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.996 0.803 0.988 3.044 0.247 0.935 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.990 0.525 0.689 3.270 0.221 0.870 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.310 0.272 3.297 0.211 0.646 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.435 0.565 2.777 0.226 0.796 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.995 0.636 1.606 6.275 0.273 0.845 21 110111 1875 1994 120 0.999 0.311 0.470 2.472 0.162 0.787 22 110112 1855 1994 140 0.989 0.324 0.614 3.046 0.169 0.786 23 110121 1860 1994 135 0.999 0.330 1.143 4.848 0.182 0.773 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.135 0.850 2.877 12.406 0.190 0.862 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.004 0.409 0.842 4.070 0.199 0.736 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.028 0.169 0.610 2.198 0.035 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 0.999 0.329 0.677 3.283 0.195 0.767 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.004 0.197 0.553 1.249 0.054 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.984 0.211 -0.068 2.472 0.154 0.475 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.996 0.308 0.503 2.909 0.170 0.645 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.505 1.056 4.158 0.223 0.819 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.135 0.850 2.877 12.406 0.273 0.935 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 110012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 110021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 110022 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 110031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 110032 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 110041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 110042 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 110051 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 110052 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 110061 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 110062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 110071 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 110072 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 110081 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 110082 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 110091 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 110092 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 110101 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 110111 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 110112 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 110121 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 110122 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 0.997 0.211 0.496 3.082 0.154 0.573 2 110012 1861 1994 134 0.996 0.227 -0.101 3.351 0.176 0.542 3 110021 1870 1994 125 0.996 0.223 0.525 3.173 0.220 0.209 4 110022 1866 1994 129 0.997 0.289 0.589 3.581 0.205 0.574 5 110031 1860 1994 135 0.992 0.304 0.224 2.698 0.180 0.707 6 110032 1858 1994 137 0.996 0.220 0.137 3.129 0.171 0.559 7 110041 1839 1994 156 0.996 0.303 0.218 2.624 0.230 0.570 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.996 0.296 0.408 3.083 0.230 0.524 9 110051 1861 1994 134 0.991 0.305 1.025 4.245 0.181 0.647 10 110052 1880 1994 115 0.999 0.165 0.287 3.478 0.155 0.159 11 110061 1859 1994 136 0.982 0.240 1.161 5.972 0.169 0.608 12 110062 1862 1994 133 0.994 0.189 0.048 2.910 0.153 0.391 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.982 0.326 0.143 3.461 0.261 0.483 14 110072 1910 1994 85 0.990 0.265 1.621 8.497 0.200 0.345 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.984 0.437 0.798 5.194 0.219 0.762 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.093 0.819 3.497 22.407 0.249 0.768 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.965 0.353 0.159 3.008 0.219 0.738 18 110092 1795 1994 200 0.996 0.296 0.258 3.333 0.211 0.618 19 110101 1711 1994 284 0.988 0.332 0.508 3.375 0.226 0.636 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.966 0.411 0.874 4.629 0.272 0.665 21 110111 1875 1994 120 0.997 0.236 0.359 2.748 0.162 0.608 22 110112 1855 1994 140 0.996 0.212 0.978 5.239 0.169 0.377 23 110121 1860 1994 135 0.996 0.265 0.680 3.630 0.182 0.655 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.983 0.301 -0.051 2.818 0.188 0.685 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.994 0.301 0.618 4.569 0.199 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.023 0.128 0.741 4.025 0.035 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 0.996 0.293 0.452 3.363 0.194 0.591 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.010 0.090 0.647 1.392 0.053 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.965 0.165 -0.101 2.624 0.153 0.159 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.986 0.225 0.189 3.045 0.170 0.503 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.996 0.316 0.836 4.437 0.223 0.660 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.093 0.819 3.497 22.407 0.272 0.768 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.202 0.175 0.011 0.092 3.193 -0.260 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.260 SERIES 110011 AND 110092 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 110031 AND 110032 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.513 0.650 0.249 0.305 0.393 0.405 0.195 0.215 0.219 SDEV 0.201 0.118 0.217 0.172 0.185 0.195 0.278 0.241 0.253 SERR 0.082 0.048 0.069 0.044 0.048 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.823 0.907 0.657 0.749 0.898 0.935 0.850 0.868 0.871 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.021 0.429 1.959 14.304 0.196 0.781 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.670 0.550 -0.262 52 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.67 1.00 1.13 1.80 94.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.778 0.645 0.563 0.516 0.523 0.433 0.366 0.373 0.368 0.365 PACF 0.778 0.099 0.086 0.088 0.169 -0.154 -0.010 0.153 0.028 0.006 95% C.L. 0.117 0.174 0.204 0.224 0.240 0.255 0.265 0.272 0.278 0.285 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.658 0.660 -0.026 0.138 -0.038 0.304 -0.172 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.562 0.502 0.319 0.219 0.259 0.202 0.233 0.175 0.105 0.062 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.562 2 0.408 0.273 3 0.425 0.299 -0.063 4 0.422 0.314 -0.041 -0.050 5 0.431 0.321 -0.099 -0.128 0.184 6 0.428 0.324 -0.097 -0.134 0.175 0.020 7 0.427 0.316 -0.091 -0.130 0.161 0.001 0.045 8 0.428 0.316 -0.088 -0.133 0.159 0.008 0.053 -0.021 9 0.426 0.320 -0.087 -0.121 0.150 0.001 0.076 0.010 -0.072 10 0.424 0.320 -0.084 -0.121 0.155 -0.003 0.073 0.022 -0.057 -0.036 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2215.58 2106.60 2085.88 2086.73 2087.99 2079.88 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2081.76 2083.18 2085.05 2085.51 2087.13 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.408 0.273 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 36.64 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 157.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.408 0.440 0.291 0.239 0.177 0.137 0.104 0.080 0.061 0.0469 0.036 0.027 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.0032 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 110011 2 0.362 0.468 0.187 2 110012 2 0.339 0.527 0.061 3 110021 2 0.059 0.191 0.109 4 110022 2 0.471 0.328 0.430 5 110031 2 0.541 0.596 0.172 6 110032 2 0.366 0.442 0.211 7 110041 2 0.390 0.435 0.241 8 110042 2 0.314 0.414 0.216 9 110051 2 0.426 0.580 0.104 10 110052 2 0.042 0.139 0.125 11 110061 2 0.413 0.478 0.222 12 110062 2 0.172 0.352 0.119 13 110071 2 0.256 0.417 0.143 14 110072 2 0.131 0.356 0.013 15 110081 2 0.612 0.631 0.174 16 110082 2 0.670 0.631 0.196 17 110091 2 0.554 0.649 0.121 18 110092 2 0.385 0.623 -0.005 19 110101 2 0.428 0.529 0.174 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 110102 2 0.475 0.517 0.226 21 110111 2 0.448 0.409 0.334 22 110112 2 0.166 0.391 0.037 23 110121 2 0.518 0.487 0.262 24 110122 2 0.541 0.520 0.265 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.378 0.463 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.169 0.132 0.100 MEDIAN 2 0.402 0.473 0.174 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.212 0.154 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.042 0.139 -0.005 LOWER HINGE 2 0.285 0.400 0.114 UPPER HINGE 2 0.497 0.554 0.224 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.670 0.649 0.430 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.169 0.433 3.257 0.188 0.015 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.188 0.230 2.929 0.209 0.031 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.217 0.557 3.238 0.235 0.003 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.214 0.857 4.607 0.220 0.074 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.206 0.482 4.470 0.224 0.011 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.178 -0.056 4.196 0.199 0.038 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.241 0.267 2.899 0.269 0.043 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.245 0.111 3.963 0.280 -0.010 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.231 0.406 6.198 0.230 0.005 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.162 0.340 4.085 0.165 -0.005 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.184 0.305 4.123 0.208 -0.026 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.172 0.377 4.051 0.177 -0.003 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.282 0.197 4.670 0.309 0.008 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.246 1.891 10.507 0.234 -0.017 15 110081 1703 1994 292 1.000 0.275 1.477 13.021 0.280 -0.033 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.007 0.473 4.848 43.322 0.328 0.054 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.236 0.257 3.733 0.273 -0.007 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.232 0.256 3.670 0.263 0.002 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.251 0.140 3.381 0.284 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.298 0.538 4.913 0.316 -0.009 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.176 0.627 3.986 0.184 0.016 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.191 0.897 4.844 0.197 -0.030 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.192 0.352 3.670 0.211 0.071 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.202 0.367 3.347 0.231 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.227 0.673 6.295 0.238 0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.001 0.064 0.988 8.224 0.046 0.029 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.215 0.372 4.068 0.230 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.060 0.335 1.232 0.073 0.032 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.162 -0.056 2.899 0.165 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.186 0.256 3.525 0.203 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.245 0.592 4.757 0.276 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.007 0.473 4.848 43.322 0.328 0.074 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.256 0.143 0.009 -0.044 3.686 -0.186 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.186 SERIES 110072 AND 110102 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 110031 AND 110032 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.482 0.435 0.353 0.432 0.537 0.395 0.275 0.238 0.266 SDEV 0.228 0.188 0.156 0.136 0.121 0.180 0.181 0.178 0.193 SERR 0.093 0.077 0.049 0.035 0.031 0.020 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.804 0.800 0.760 0.838 0.940 0.932 0.898 0.883 0.897 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.003 0.243 2.975 24.922 0.221 0.099 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.564 0.604 -0.392 56 237 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.09 1.00 1.09 2.18 7.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.099 -0.108 0.007 0.004 0.256 0.015 -0.078 0.090 0.101 0.139 PACF 0.099 -0.119 0.031 -0.013 0.268 -0.051 -0.012 0.087 0.088 0.082 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.025 0.111 -0.122 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.000 0.065 -0.042 0.258 0.004 -0.049 0.110 0.074 0.129 PACF 0.002 0.000 0.065 -0.042 0.260 -0.007 -0.043 0.082 0.100 0.072 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 0.002 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.003 0.333 2.348 15.910 0.189 0.655 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.652 0.607 0.530 0.447 0.501 0.386 0.350 0.372 0.344 0.340 PACF 0.652 0.316 0.102 -0.007 0.219 -0.084 -0.040 0.126 0.066 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.117 0.159 0.188 0.207 0.220 0.235 0.244 0.250 0.258 0.264 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.508 0.375 0.249 0.187 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES