RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 110 1 Nirukda, P.Tung. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCOB - 110 2 Russia Black Spuce 160 6156-9509 1702 1994 - 110 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 110011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1901 1905 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 110041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 110061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 110062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 110082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1765 1765 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 0.248 0.029 -0.048 2.604 0.077 0.637 2 110012 1861 1994 134 0.222 0.029 -0.355 2.887 0.079 0.701 3 110021 1870 1994 125 0.208 0.019 -0.224 3.575 0.087 0.256 4 110022 1866 1994 129 0.217 0.022 0.115 3.491 0.080 0.419 5 110031 1860 1994 135 0.240 0.034 0.295 2.302 0.083 0.726 6 110032 1858 1994 137 0.222 0.023 0.151 3.091 0.089 0.404 7 110041 1839 1994 156 0.227 0.023 -0.160 3.581 0.093 0.279 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.219 0.026 0.108 3.401 0.086 0.547 9 110051 1861 1994 134 0.233 0.026 0.081 3.133 0.086 0.555 10 110052 1880 1994 115 0.216 0.021 1.037 6.053 0.079 0.339 11 110061 1859 1994 136 0.255 0.020 0.212 2.755 0.076 0.256 12 110062 1862 1994 133 0.249 0.022 -0.085 2.759 0.076 0.407 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.238 0.039 1.379 4.608 0.085 0.751 14 110072 1910 1994 85 0.242 0.028 1.267 5.390 0.074 0.624 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.263 0.041 0.848 5.334 0.085 0.678 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.276 0.053 1.301 5.056 0.092 0.731 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.300 0.044 0.954 4.042 0.084 0.752 18 110092 1795 1994 200 0.301 0.030 0.466 3.513 0.072 0.538 19 110101 1711 1994 284 0.237 0.030 1.109 5.281 0.089 0.538 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.257 0.053 0.508 3.499 0.099 0.810 21 110111 1875 1994 120 0.227 0.024 0.218 2.614 0.079 0.555 22 110112 1855 1994 140 0.241 0.027 0.527 3.234 0.081 0.543 23 110121 1860 1994 135 0.271 0.024 0.052 3.453 0.083 0.286 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.258 0.035 0.637 4.527 0.077 0.654 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1702 TO 1994 293 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 0.244 0.030 0.433 3.758 0.083 0.541 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.025 0.010 0.521 1.041 0.007 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.241 0.027 0.257 3.495 0.083 0.551 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 49 0.033 0.011 0.835 1.579 0.009 0.284 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.208 0.019 -0.355 2.302 0.072 0.256 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 126 0.225 0.023 0.066 2.989 0.078 0.405 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 175 0.257 0.035 0.901 4.568 0.087 0.690 MAXIMUM VALUE 292 0.301 0.053 1.379 6.053 0.099 0.810 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.163 0.259 0.016 -0.431 2.741 -0.553 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.553 SERIES 110012 AND 110071 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 110071 AND 110102 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.481 0.675 0.384 0.291 0.376 0.253 0.140 0.199 0.227 SDEV 0.124 0.072 0.196 0.153 0.131 0.241 0.249 0.219 0.195 SERR 0.051 0.029 0.062 0.040 0.034 0.027 0.016 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.804 0.916 0.783 0.736 0.891 0.877 0.792 0.857 0.876 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.262 0.036 2.137 9.781 0.058 0.763 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.095 0.037 0.025 46 247 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.51 1.01 1.07 1.58 22.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 135. 48. 85. 130. 178. 293. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.760 0.701 0.649 0.592 0.554 0.549 0.530 0.568 0.567 0.538 PACF 0.760 0.292 0.129 0.034 0.044 0.111 0.060 0.184 0.075 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.117 0.172 0.207 0.233 0.253 0.269 0.284 0.297 0.311 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.707 0.513 0.275 0.101 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055320 0.21080732 2 110012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037933 0.19670856 3 110021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017684 0.19717936 4 110022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032010 0.19578247 5 110031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028461 0.25935322 6 110032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015028 0.23190209 7 110041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014654 0.21719645 8 110042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015073 0.20877308 9 110051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027479 0.21480979 10 110052 1 0.02273582 0.04203547 0.00000000 0.21177948 11 110061 1 0.19901906 0.00086036 0.00000000 0.06674847 12 110062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021033 0.26147363 13 110071 1 0.13963132 0.05000725 0.00000000 0.21026605 14 110072 1 0.11213583 0.10390117 0.00000000 0.22983532 15 110081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026179 0.30133101 16 110082 1 0.11094721 0.01551207 0.00000000 0.25278363 17 110091 1 0.13690989 0.04656970 0.00000000 0.28756803 18 110092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008761 0.30935478 19 110101 1 0.07136612 0.01085579 0.00000000 0.21490026 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037785 0.31042752 21 110111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038774 0.20337535 22 110112 1 0.06301246 0.03159600 0.00000000 0.22736199 23 110121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013062 0.26222885 24 110122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001789 0.25939727 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.080 0.179 2.974 0.075 0.243 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.117 0.214 3.148 0.079 0.631 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.086 -0.220 3.613 0.087 0.141 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.089 0.827 7.215 0.080 0.177 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.134 0.183 2.399 0.083 0.680 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.102 0.097 3.297 0.089 0.360 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.101 0.121 3.511 0.092 0.280 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.116 0.407 3.822 0.086 0.536 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.103 0.630 4.113 0.085 0.468 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.094 0.797 5.314 0.078 0.303 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.073 0.086 2.689 0.076 0.158 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.084 -0.116 2.726 0.075 0.369 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.084 0.347 2.906 0.084 0.251 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.070 0.315 5.359 0.072 0.216 15 110081 1703 1994 292 1.000 0.129 0.896 4.824 0.085 0.568 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.000 0.161 1.255 5.127 0.092 0.667 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.117 0.179 2.926 0.084 0.602 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.097 0.487 3.592 0.072 0.519 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.098 0.737 4.124 0.089 0.279 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.999 0.166 0.509 2.953 0.099 0.709 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.088 0.388 3.134 0.079 0.327 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.088 0.041 2.452 0.081 0.311 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.086 0.182 3.717 0.082 0.258 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.134 0.608 4.405 0.077 0.650 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.104 0.381 3.764 0.083 0.404 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.026 0.350 1.145 0.007 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.097 0.331 3.552 0.083 0.344 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.031 0.469 1.325 0.009 0.331 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.070 -0.220 2.399 0.072 0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.086 0.150 2.939 0.077 0.255 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.117 0.619 4.264 0.086 0.585 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.166 1.255 7.215 0.099 0.709 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 110012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 110021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 110022 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 110031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 110032 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 110041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 110042 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 110051 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 110052 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 110061 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 110062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 110071 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 110072 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 110081 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 110082 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 110091 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 110092 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 110101 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 110111 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 110112 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 110121 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 110122 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.076 0.201 3.131 0.075 0.158 2 110012 1861 1994 134 0.999 0.087 -0.164 2.949 0.079 0.383 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.083 -0.299 3.700 0.087 0.084 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.087 0.695 6.531 0.080 0.149 5 110031 1860 1994 135 0.999 0.090 0.004 2.742 0.083 0.314 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.094 0.324 3.297 0.089 0.228 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.094 0.121 3.556 0.092 0.151 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.999 0.103 0.180 2.968 0.086 0.415 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.088 0.594 4.083 0.086 0.275 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.083 0.937 6.150 0.078 0.104 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.067 -0.058 2.648 0.076 -0.011 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.070 -0.161 2.778 0.075 0.106 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.081 0.284 2.956 0.084 0.202 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.068 0.250 4.738 0.072 0.158 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.999 0.118 1.108 5.666 0.085 0.490 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.998 0.135 1.346 5.820 0.092 0.547 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.999 0.098 0.184 3.243 0.084 0.433 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.077 0.577 3.386 0.072 0.234 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.096 0.733 4.090 0.089 0.260 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.998 0.141 0.643 3.724 0.099 0.594 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.086 0.302 3.139 0.079 0.297 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.087 0.047 2.480 0.081 0.283 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.080 0.202 3.371 0.082 0.134 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.998 0.104 1.332 10.307 0.077 0.405 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.999 0.091 0.391 4.061 0.083 0.266 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.001 0.019 0.456 1.764 0.007 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.087 0.267 3.379 0.083 0.247 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.001 0.016 0.585 1.452 0.009 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.998 0.067 -0.299 2.480 0.072 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.999 0.081 0.084 2.962 0.078 0.150 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.097 0.669 4.414 0.086 0.394 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.141 1.346 10.307 0.099 0.594 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.189 0.123 0.007 -0.099 3.192 -0.161 0.609 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.161 SERIES 110071 AND 110112 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.609 SERIES 110031 AND 110032 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.439 0.557 0.319 0.307 0.369 0.266 0.162 0.196 0.245 SDEV 0.131 0.099 0.179 0.126 0.129 0.161 0.175 0.171 0.162 SERR 0.054 0.041 0.057 0.032 0.033 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.776 0.868 0.731 0.750 0.888 0.884 0.818 0.854 0.886 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.997 0.080 1.134 5.958 0.061 0.498 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.317 0.153 -0.071 58 235 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.83 1.00 1.07 1.91 102.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.497 0.443 0.341 0.277 0.209 0.226 0.178 0.237 0.231 0.235 PACF 0.497 0.261 0.070 0.027 -0.007 0.085 0.010 0.117 0.064 0.042 95% C.L. 0.117 0.143 0.160 0.170 0.176 0.180 0.183 0.186 0.190 0.194 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.313 0.366 0.273 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.235 0.133 0.116 0.031 -0.062 0.058 0.118 0.074 0.159 0.032 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.235 2 0.216 0.082 3 0.210 0.066 0.073 4 0.211 0.068 0.077 -0.020 5 0.210 0.074 0.083 -0.002 -0.088 6 0.217 0.075 0.076 -0.008 -0.106 0.086 7 0.208 0.086 0.077 -0.017 -0.114 0.062 0.111 8 0.204 0.084 0.080 -0.016 -0.117 0.059 0.105 0.032 9 0.200 0.073 0.074 -0.003 -0.115 0.050 0.095 0.009 0.114 10 0.208 0.073 0.080 0.001 -0.123 0.050 0.100 0.014 0.128 -0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1469.33 1454.66 1454.69 1455.13 1457.01 1456.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1456.55 1454.89 1456.60 1454.78 1455.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.235 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.235 0.055 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 110011 1 0.044 0.158 2 110012 1 0.176 0.389 3 110021 1 0.017 0.085 4 110022 1 0.033 0.152 5 110031 1 0.099 0.314 6 110032 1 0.056 0.237 7 110041 1 0.069 0.155 8 110042 1 0.177 0.416 9 110051 1 0.079 0.278 10 110052 1 0.020 0.105 11 110061 1 0.009 -0.011 12 110062 1 0.021 0.106 13 110071 1 0.042 0.204 14 110072 1 0.040 0.159 15 110081 1 0.255 0.498 16 110082 1 0.326 0.556 17 110091 1 0.244 0.438 18 110092 1 0.078 0.237 19 110101 1 0.079 0.262 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 110102 1 0.399 0.595 21 110111 1 0.120 0.301 22 110112 1 0.094 0.286 23 110121 1 0.039 0.134 24 110122 1 0.267 0.415 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.116 0.270 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.158 MEDIAN 1 0.078 0.250 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.137 0.248 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 -0.011 LOWER HINGE 1 0.040 0.154 UPPER HINGE 1 0.177 0.402 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.399 0.595 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.075 0.179 3.057 0.082 -0.021 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.080 0.039 2.758 0.095 -0.063 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.083 -0.309 3.612 0.091 0.008 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.086 0.925 7.640 0.086 -0.017 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.085 0.085 2.772 0.098 -0.005 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.091 0.229 3.129 0.099 -0.008 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.093 0.061 3.696 0.102 -0.035 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.093 0.323 2.986 0.108 -0.030 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.084 0.671 4.040 0.096 -0.011 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.083 0.789 6.065 0.083 -0.011 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.067 -0.057 2.650 0.076 0.001 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.070 -0.123 2.787 0.080 -0.010 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.080 0.270 2.878 0.091 0.001 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.067 0.165 3.901 0.077 0.019 15 110081 1703 1994 292 1.000 0.102 0.817 5.431 0.111 -0.048 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.000 0.112 1.288 6.559 0.121 -0.092 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.088 0.004 3.109 0.108 -0.114 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.075 0.470 3.295 0.083 -0.034 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.093 0.518 3.926 0.105 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.113 0.511 3.387 0.136 -0.156 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.082 0.297 3.355 0.096 -0.051 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.083 -0.062 2.588 0.096 -0.030 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.079 0.143 3.549 0.090 -0.019 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.094 1.435 12.767 0.097 -0.148 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.086 0.361 4.164 0.096 -0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.012 0.440 2.257 0.014 0.046 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.084 0.249 3.371 0.096 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.013 0.544 1.051 0.018 0.041 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.067 -0.309 2.588 0.076 -0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.080 0.050 2.932 0.085 -0.050 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.093 0.595 3.983 0.103 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.113 1.435 12.767 0.136 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.204 0.110 0.007 -0.040 3.190 -0.142 0.596 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.142 SERIES 110071 AND 110112 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.596 SERIES 110031 AND 110032 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.373 0.487 0.356 0.367 0.392 0.290 0.186 0.213 0.250 SDEV 0.108 0.128 0.126 0.082 0.099 0.143 0.152 0.160 0.147 SERR 0.044 0.052 0.040 0.021 0.025 0.016 0.010 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.725 0.832 0.762 0.798 0.897 0.896 0.841 0.867 0.889 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.998 0.061 0.804 5.022 0.067 -0.027 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.254 0.148 -0.076 65 228 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.86 1.01 1.09 1.95 9.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 0.191 0.074 0.134 -0.015 0.136 0.034 0.092 0.076 0.113 PACF -0.027 0.191 0.086 0.107 -0.038 0.089 0.035 0.050 0.062 0.072 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.121 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.058 -0.049 0.174 0.094 0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.193 0.083 0.135 -0.008 0.137 0.041 0.095 0.082 0.117 PACF 0.005 0.193 0.084 0.103 -0.038 0.091 0.034 0.051 0.063 0.071 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.121 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.038 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.998 0.064 0.978 5.816 0.059 0.289 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.288 0.270 0.170 0.170 0.065 0.155 0.099 0.135 0.136 0.156 PACF 0.288 0.204 0.057 0.074 -0.038 0.106 0.026 0.058 0.065 0.059 95% C.L. 0.117 0.126 0.134 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.142 0.143 0.145 0.147 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.128 0.230 0.210 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.40 MINUTES