RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS175X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 110 1 Nirukda, P.Tung. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCOB - 110 2 Russia Black Spuce 160 6156-9509 1702 1994 - 110 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 110061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 0.890 0.078 -0.733 2.672 0.054 0.680 2 110012 1861 1994 134 0.844 0.072 -0.083 2.510 0.062 0.582 3 110021 1870 1994 125 0.807 0.069 -0.335 2.747 0.072 0.450 4 110022 1866 1994 129 0.809 0.090 -0.840 3.615 0.090 0.509 5 110031 1860 1994 135 0.922 0.079 -1.531 6.272 0.056 0.591 6 110032 1858 1994 137 0.928 0.066 -1.620 7.296 0.051 0.554 7 110041 1839 1994 156 0.875 0.073 -1.161 4.867 0.072 0.479 8 110042 1862 1994 133 0.868 0.061 -1.086 5.774 0.049 0.562 9 110051 1861 1994 134 0.911 0.054 -1.083 4.300 0.049 0.487 10 110052 1880 1994 115 0.906 0.048 -0.714 3.603 0.044 0.448 11 110061 1859 1994 136 0.911 0.074 -0.525 2.613 0.049 0.707 12 110062 1862 1994 133 0.936 0.061 -0.686 3.260 0.052 0.448 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.803 0.083 -1.522 5.917 0.083 0.481 14 110072 1910 1994 85 0.846 0.048 -1.388 5.892 0.048 0.479 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.816 0.111 -0.309 3.553 0.071 0.777 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.827 0.120 0.145 3.997 0.081 0.730 17 110091 1764 1994 231 0.890 0.072 -0.641 3.290 0.058 0.608 18 110092 1795 1994 200 0.962 0.062 -0.595 3.388 0.051 0.513 19 110101 1711 1994 284 0.806 0.085 -0.400 2.966 0.066 0.687 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.776 0.103 -0.919 3.210 0.076 0.759 21 110111 1875 1994 120 0.859 0.066 0.130 2.875 0.054 0.583 22 110112 1855 1994 140 0.867 0.064 -0.342 2.759 0.057 0.576 23 110121 1860 1994 135 0.925 0.045 -0.330 2.807 0.045 0.312 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.914 0.078 -0.620 2.857 0.054 0.674 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1702 TO 1994 293 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.871 0.073 -0.716 3.877 0.060 0.570 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.051 0.019 0.499 1.376 0.013 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.872 0.072 -0.664 3.339 0.055 0.569 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.091 0.020 0.746 1.752 0.021 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.776 0.045 -1.620 2.510 0.044 0.312 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.822 0.061 -1.085 2.832 0.050 0.480 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.913 0.081 -0.339 4.584 0.071 0.677 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 0.962 0.120 0.145 7.296 0.090 0.777 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.167 0.294 0.018 -0.156 2.123 -0.518 0.750 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.518 SERIES 110061 AND 110102 136 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.750 SERIES 110021 AND 110022 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.247 0.249 0.157 0.321 0.354 0.193 0.277 0.187 0.183 SDEV 0.281 0.333 0.198 0.108 0.245 0.328 0.235 0.254 0.222 SERR 0.115 0.136 0.063 0.028 0.063 0.037 0.015 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.591 0.634 0.519 0.762 0.882 0.834 0.899 0.846 0.843 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 0.846 0.066 -0.959 3.044 0.042 0.771 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.075 -0.038 0.107 75 218 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 25.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 135. 48. 85. 130. 178. 293. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.768 0.752 0.737 0.759 0.741 0.696 0.696 0.710 0.714 0.662 PACF 0.768 0.396 0.241 0.273 0.145 -0.019 0.051 0.108 0.103 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.117 0.173 0.213 0.245 0.275 0.301 0.322 0.342 0.362 0.381 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.714 0.249 0.180 0.119 0.228 0.162 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136778 0.79934537 2 110012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122144 0.76106048 3 110021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100535 0.74330324 4 110022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148166 0.71268409 5 110031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061565 0.87998784 6 110032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079919 0.87237442 7 110041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061022 0.82754672 8 110042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023102 0.85264182 9 110051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066864 0.86635953 10 110052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042318 0.88102061 11 110061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00081471 0.85411823 12 110062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043588 0.90658575 13 110071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088139 0.75886005 14 110072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077956 0.81283194 15 110081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044921 0.75008118 16 110082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049408 0.75484478 17 110091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024818 0.91891927 18 110092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023776 0.93775475 19 110101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033773 0.85390109 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057017 0.85755163 21 110111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123540 0.78434175 22 110112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090919 0.80333096 23 110121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019505 0.91162521 24 110122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050670 0.87707227 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.066 -0.231 2.841 0.054 0.447 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.065 -0.303 3.610 0.062 0.237 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.073 -0.095 2.574 0.071 0.248 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.089 -0.699 3.684 0.090 0.220 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.083 -1.330 6.108 0.056 0.563 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.063 -1.162 6.493 0.050 0.439 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.079 -0.727 4.335 0.071 0.410 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.070 -0.820 5.172 0.049 0.557 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.053 -0.614 3.616 0.049 0.361 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.051 -0.544 3.342 0.044 0.385 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.074 -0.323 2.594 0.049 0.643 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.063 -0.366 2.872 0.052 0.410 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.099 -1.364 5.638 0.083 0.413 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.053 -0.825 4.720 0.047 0.394 15 110081 1703 1994 292 1.000 0.129 -0.239 3.118 0.071 0.744 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.000 0.134 -0.112 3.531 0.080 0.690 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.079 -0.531 3.761 0.057 0.582 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.062 -0.710 3.584 0.051 0.484 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.100 -0.281 2.880 0.066 0.643 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.121 -0.741 3.116 0.076 0.694 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.059 0.788 3.667 0.054 0.280 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.060 -0.251 3.124 0.057 0.355 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.048 -0.474 2.797 0.044 0.294 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.082 -0.518 2.703 0.053 0.653 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.077 -0.520 3.745 0.060 0.464 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.024 0.447 1.114 0.013 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.072 -0.525 3.557 0.055 0.426 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.025 0.468 1.172 0.021 0.254 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.048 -1.364 2.574 0.044 0.220 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.061 -0.734 2.876 0.050 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.086 -0.266 4.048 0.071 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.134 0.788 6.493 0.090 0.744 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 110011 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 110012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 110021 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 110022 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 110031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 110032 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 110041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 110042 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 110051 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 110052 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 110061 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 110062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 110071 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 110072 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 110081 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 110082 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 110091 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 110092 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 110101 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 110102 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 110111 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 110112 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 110121 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 110122 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.051 -0.478 3.467 0.054 0.086 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.061 -0.236 3.648 0.062 0.155 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.066 -0.197 2.693 0.071 0.087 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.080 -0.796 3.486 0.090 0.053 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.071 -1.796 7.103 0.056 0.439 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.053 -1.038 6.082 0.050 0.204 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.072 -0.747 4.274 0.071 0.285 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.052 -0.217 4.635 0.049 0.261 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.046 -0.475 3.767 0.049 0.157 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.048 -0.408 3.434 0.044 0.314 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.047 -0.414 2.837 0.049 0.173 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.051 -0.676 3.630 0.052 0.125 13 110071 1896 1994 99 0.999 0.085 -1.447 7.316 0.082 0.175 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.043 -0.829 4.069 0.047 0.102 15 110081 1703 1994 292 0.999 0.099 -0.237 4.333 0.071 0.563 16 110082 1702 1994 293 0.999 0.112 0.190 4.086 0.080 0.550 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.068 -0.249 4.399 0.058 0.436 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.052 -0.483 3.085 0.051 0.265 19 110101 1711 1994 284 0.999 0.084 -0.280 3.839 0.066 0.491 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 0.999 0.096 -0.596 4.420 0.076 0.508 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.056 0.733 3.718 0.054 0.204 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.053 -0.415 3.312 0.057 0.176 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.047 -0.480 2.837 0.044 0.254 24 110122 1849 1994 146 0.999 0.059 -0.519 3.388 0.053 0.339 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.065 -0.504 4.077 0.060 0.267 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.019 0.494 1.200 0.013 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.057 -0.477 3.742 0.055 0.229 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.025 0.468 0.955 0.021 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.043 -1.796 2.693 0.044 0.053 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.051 -0.711 3.411 0.050 0.156 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.076 -0.243 4.366 0.071 0.387 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.112 0.733 7.316 0.090 0.563 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.204 0.160 0.010 -0.009 2.715 -0.257 0.614 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.257 SERIES 110071 AND 110081 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.614 SERIES 110021 AND 110022 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.149 0.111 0.183 0.313 0.400 0.245 0.276 0.219 0.212 SDEV 0.311 0.374 0.232 0.148 0.175 0.186 0.187 0.218 0.180 SERR 0.127 0.153 0.073 0.038 0.045 0.021 0.012 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.436 0.393 0.565 0.756 0.901 0.872 0.899 0.871 0.866 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.002 0.044 -0.355 3.530 0.042 0.267 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.276 -0.191 0.247 95 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 1.35 1.00 1.22 2.58 26.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.98 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.266 0.251 0.217 0.193 0.132 0.107 0.094 0.072 0.199 0.052 PACF 0.266 0.194 0.124 0.087 0.016 0.007 0.013 0.002 0.164 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.136 0.140 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.129 0.177 0.152 0.109 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.072 0.122 0.066 0.036 -0.042 -0.106 0.025 -0.032 0.107 -0.032 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.072 2 0.063 0.118 3 0.057 0.114 0.051 4 0.056 0.113 0.050 0.015 5 0.057 0.116 0.057 0.019 -0.060 6 0.050 0.118 0.064 0.032 -0.054 -0.112 7 0.056 0.120 0.062 0.029 -0.059 -0.115 0.047 8 0.056 0.120 0.062 0.029 -0.059 -0.114 0.048 -0.005 9 0.057 0.114 0.076 0.036 -0.063 -0.122 0.033 -0.011 0.123 10 0.062 0.113 0.077 0.031 -0.065 -0.120 0.036 -0.006 0.125 -0.043 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1281.40 1281.90 1279.83 1281.05 1282.98 1283.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1282.21 1283.55 1285.55 1283.11 1284.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.063 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.92 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.063 0.122 0.015 0.015 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 110011 2 0.016 0.084 0.033 2 110012 2 0.062 0.129 0.190 3 110021 2 0.016 0.080 0.080 4 110022 2 0.015 0.048 0.108 5 110031 2 0.260 0.371 0.209 6 110032 2 0.068 0.172 0.157 7 110041 2 0.120 0.227 0.202 8 110042 2 0.090 0.245 0.110 9 110051 2 0.041 0.142 0.111 10 110052 2 0.106 0.332 -0.048 11 110061 2 0.032 0.181 -0.036 12 110062 2 0.035 0.109 0.130 13 110071 2 0.070 0.150 0.139 14 110072 2 0.023 0.108 -0.055 15 110081 2 0.366 0.451 0.202 16 110082 2 0.400 0.356 0.353 17 110091 2 0.203 0.382 0.122 18 110092 2 0.084 0.234 0.119 19 110101 2 0.281 0.382 0.225 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 110102 2 0.335 0.372 0.269 21 110111 2 0.103 0.166 0.191 22 110112 2 0.059 0.149 0.161 23 110121 2 0.089 0.234 0.084 24 110122 2 0.148 0.284 0.169 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.126 0.225 0.134 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.116 0.096 MEDIAN 2 0.086 0.204 0.135 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.137 0.209 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.015 0.048 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 2 0.038 0.135 0.096 UPPER HINGE 2 0.175 0.344 0.197 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.400 0.451 0.353 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 110011 1863 1994 132 1.000 0.051 -0.493 3.611 0.056 0.002 2 110012 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.059 -0.339 3.810 0.065 0.016 3 110021 1870 1994 125 1.000 0.065 -0.270 2.869 0.074 -0.003 4 110022 1866 1994 129 1.000 0.079 -0.774 3.580 0.091 0.003 5 110031 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.061 -1.133 5.377 0.068 -0.048 6 110032 1858 1994 137 1.000 0.051 -1.197 7.007 0.055 0.008 7 110041 1839 1994 156 1.000 0.068 -0.732 4.070 0.078 -0.007 8 110042 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.050 -0.286 4.107 0.055 -0.018 9 110051 1861 1994 134 1.000 0.045 -0.518 3.733 0.052 0.003 10 110052 1880 1994 115 1.000 0.046 -0.336 3.484 0.053 0.003 11 110061 1859 1994 136 1.000 0.047 -0.286 2.730 0.053 0.000 12 110062 1862 1994 133 1.000 0.050 -0.708 3.881 0.054 -0.006 13 110071 1896 1994 99 1.000 0.083 -1.364 6.689 0.090 -0.020 14 110072 1910 1994 85 1.000 0.042 -0.786 4.026 0.049 0.005 15 110081 1703 1994 292 1.000 0.080 -0.027 4.208 0.089 -0.037 16 110082 1702 1994 293 1.000 0.087 0.411 5.208 0.095 -0.044 17 110091 1764 1994 231 1.000 0.061 -0.350 4.152 0.068 -0.004 18 110092 1795 1994 200 1.000 0.050 -0.397 3.018 0.057 0.003 19 110101 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.071 -0.429 3.452 0.081 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 110102 1711 1994 284 1.000 0.080 -0.288 3.983 0.091 -0.046 21 110111 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.054 0.605 3.586 0.060 -0.033 22 110112 1855 1994 140 1.000 0.052 -0.548 3.428 0.061 -0.009 23 110121 1860 1994 135 1.000 0.045 -0.480 2.996 0.050 -0.009 24 110122 1849 1994 146 1.000 0.055 -0.169 2.850 0.062 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.060 -0.454 3.994 0.067 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.014 0.443 1.092 0.015 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.054 -0.413 3.772 0.061 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.020 0.434 0.689 0.025 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.042 -1.364 2.730 0.049 -0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.050 -0.720 3.440 0.055 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.069 -0.286 4.130 0.079 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 293 1.000 0.087 0.605 7.007 0.095 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.247 0.140 0.008 0.015 3.011 -0.213 0.624 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.213 SERIES 110071 AND 110081 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.624 SERIES 110021 AND 110022 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.57 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 6. 6. 10. 15. 15. 78. 231. 276. 276. RBAR 0.188 0.118 0.210 0.341 0.431 0.269 0.310 0.270 0.270 SDEV 0.216 0.251 0.195 0.136 0.114 0.172 0.163 0.193 0.148 SERR 0.088 0.102 0.062 0.035 0.030 0.019 0.011 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.506 0.412 0.606 0.778 0.912 0.886 0.913 0.899 0.899 NSS 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 13.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.001 0.038 -0.240 3.369 0.045 -0.152 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.161 -0.096 0.144 91 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.43 1.01 1.12 2.54 66.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.151 -0.085 0.036 -0.001 0.002 0.005 -0.050 -0.014 0.135 -0.046 PACF -0.151 -0.110 0.005 -0.004 0.006 0.006 -0.049 -0.030 0.123 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.035 -0.168 -0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.003 0.002 -0.005 -0.040 -0.003 0.129 -0.025 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.003 0.002 -0.005 -0.040 -0.003 0.129 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1702 1994 293 1.001 0.038 -0.254 3.323 0.040 0.073 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.073 0.122 0.020 0.012 0.002 -0.005 -0.024 0.000 0.123 -0.017 PACF 0.073 0.118 0.004 -0.004 -0.002 -0.006 -0.024 0.004 0.131 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.019 0.064 0.118 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES