RUN: RUSS004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS179L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS179L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 125 1 Markovo, junge BŠume WIDTH_LATE LAGM - 125 2 Russia Dahurian larch -999 6450-16900 1976 1998 - 125 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 125101 1979 1998 20 0.620 0.327 -0.025 2.375 0.322 0.698 2 125102 1978 1998 21 0.645 0.388 -0.014 2.384 0.429 0.610 3 125111 1979 1998 20 0.891 0.185 0.123 2.301 0.234 0.038 4 125112 1980 1998 19 0.961 0.264 0.689 3.709 0.296 0.182 5 125121 1976 1998 23 0.498 0.214 1.305 5.849 0.352 0.399 6 125122 1977 1998 22 0.603 0.222 1.391 5.669 0.301 0.420 7 125131 1981 1998 18 0.773 0.276 0.262 2.707 0.403 0.106 8 125132 1978 1998 21 0.536 0.214 0.109 2.544 0.308 0.511 9 125141 1982 1998 17 0.728 0.170 -0.224 2.893 0.220 0.225 10 125142 1977 1998 22 0.674 0.252 0.566 3.475 0.300 0.439 11 125151 1978 1998 21 0.696 0.232 0.462 2.630 0.376 0.147 12 125152 1978 1998 21 0.685 0.233 1.563 5.992 0.340 0.065 13 125161 1984 1998 15 0.497 0.180 0.254 2.558 0.395 0.417 14 125162 1981 1998 18 0.475 0.211 1.053 3.945 0.388 0.459 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 14 FROM 1976 TO 1998 23 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 20 0.663 0.240 0.537 3.502 0.333 0.337 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.144 0.059 0.580 1.364 0.062 0.209 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 20 0.659 0.227 0.362 2.800 0.331 0.408 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.192 0.053 0.945 1.401 0.088 0.312 MINIMUM VALUE 15 0.475 0.170 -0.224 2.301 0.220 0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 18 0.536 0.211 0.109 2.544 0.300 0.147 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 21 0.728 0.264 1.053 3.945 0.388 0.459 MAXIMUM VALUE 23 0.961 0.388 1.563 5.992 0.429 0.698 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.420 0.303 0.066 -0.037 2.453 -0.084 0.964 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.084 SERIES 125132 AND 125151 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.964 SERIES 125121 AND 125122 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 23.08 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 21.21 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1976 1998 23 0.611 0.191 -0.252 3.550 0.248 0.444 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.300 0.181 0.114 4 19 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.14 3.05 1.01 1.04 4.09 4.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 20. 3. 15. 18. 21. 23. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.424 0.254 0.329 0.307 0.287 0.088 -0.054 0.067 -0.037 -0.084 PACF 0.424 0.090 0.237 0.113 0.114 -0.173 -0.199 0.045 -0.126 0.005 95% C.L. 0.417 0.486 0.509 0.545 0.574 0.598 0.601 0.601 0.603 0.603 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.250 0.489 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 125101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03068421 0.29731578 2 125102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04748052 0.12295238 3 125111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00746617 0.96989477 4 125112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01822807 1.14280701 5 125121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01263834 0.34660080 6 125122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01191417 0.46571428 7 125131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03007224 0.48764706 8 125132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02400000 0.27171427 9 125141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02063726 0.54191178 10 125142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02517222 0.38415584 11 125151 1 1.69160020 1.31446397 0.00000000 0.66612947 12 125152 1 8.55346775 2.47151160 0.00000000 0.64766473 13 125161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02871428 0.26695240 14 125162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03030960 0.18705882 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 125101 1979 1998 20 0.972 0.443 0.085 2.164 0.315 0.558 2 125102 1978 1998 21 0.946 0.401 0.199 2.547 0.373 0.325 3 125111 1979 1998 20 1.000 0.204 0.476 2.449 0.221 0.019 4 125112 1980 1998 19 0.999 0.251 0.684 3.034 0.278 0.076 5 125121 1976 1998 23 0.997 0.395 1.697 7.653 0.333 0.309 6 125122 1977 1998 22 0.998 0.348 1.872 7.292 0.286 0.364 7 125131 1981 1998 18 0.997 0.284 -0.184 2.881 0.388 -0.388 8 125132 1978 1998 21 0.990 0.277 0.107 2.216 0.288 0.179 9 125141 1982 1998 17 0.999 0.176 -1.169 4.702 0.199 -0.110 10 125142 1977 1998 22 0.994 0.262 0.248 3.208 0.285 0.081 11 125151 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.312 0.642 3.133 0.344 0.098 12 125152 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.264 0.272 2.981 0.287 0.063 13 125161 1984 1998 15 1.007 0.316 1.816 5.771 0.367 -0.317 14 125162 1981 1998 18 1.024 0.344 0.642 4.271 0.363 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 20 0.995 0.306 0.528 3.879 0.309 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.018 0.076 0.827 1.826 0.056 0.256 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 20 0.998 0.298 0.374 3.083 0.301 0.090 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.006 0.086 0.577 2.155 0.078 0.290 MINIMUM VALUE 15 0.946 0.176 -1.169 2.164 0.199 -0.388 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 18 0.994 0.262 0.107 2.547 0.285 0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 21 1.000 0.348 0.684 4.702 0.363 0.309 MAXIMUM VALUE 23 1.024 0.443 1.872 7.653 0.388 0.558 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 125101 -67 13 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 125102 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 125111 -67 13 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 125112 -67 12 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 125121 -67 15 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 125122 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 125131 -67 12 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 125132 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 125141 -67 11 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 125142 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 125151 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 125152 -67 14 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 125161 -67 10 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 125162 -67 12 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 125101 1979 1998 20 0.996 0.233 0.032 2.893 0.295 -0.298 2 125102 1978 1998 21 0.995 0.288 -0.110 3.373 0.367 -0.151 3 125111 1979 1998 20 0.998 0.179 0.368 2.916 0.216 -0.171 4 125112 1980 1998 19 0.997 0.206 0.446 2.966 0.281 -0.216 5 125121 1976 1998 23 0.993 0.334 0.784 4.391 0.326 0.141 6 125122 1977 1998 22 0.995 0.270 0.672 4.574 0.281 0.139 7 125131 1981 1998 18 0.999 0.264 -0.719 2.937 0.380 -0.531 8 125132 1978 1998 21 0.997 0.216 -0.618 3.460 0.278 -0.098 9 125141 1982 1998 17 0.999 0.160 -1.666 6.211 0.194 -0.223 10 125142 1977 1998 22 0.998 0.224 0.126 4.519 0.283 -0.142 11 125151 1978 1998 21 0.994 0.262 -0.213 2.587 0.340 -0.207 12 125152 1978 1998 21 0.996 0.241 0.129 2.970 0.276 -0.002 13 125161 1984 1998 15 0.995 0.230 0.209 3.316 0.356 -0.643 14 125162 1981 1998 18 0.996 0.249 0.526 4.662 0.331 -0.452 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 20 0.996 0.240 -0.002 3.698 0.300 -0.204 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.002 0.044 0.650 1.023 0.054 0.227 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 20 0.996 0.237 0.128 3.345 0.289 -0.189 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.003 0.048 0.659 1.583 0.062 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 15 0.993 0.160 -1.666 2.587 0.194 -0.643 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 18 0.995 0.216 -0.213 2.937 0.278 -0.298 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 21 0.998 0.264 0.446 4.519 0.340 -0.098 MAXIMUM VALUE 23 0.999 0.334 0.784 6.211 0.380 0.141 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.493 0.204 0.044 0.224 3.052 0.155 0.951 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.155 SERIES 125102 AND 125152 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.951 SERIES 125121 AND 125122 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 23.08 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 21.21 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1976 1998 23 0.982 0.175 -0.666 3.355 0.225 -0.175 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.377 0.161 0.021 4 19 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.76 1.53 1.03 1.11 2.63 2.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.84 0.11 0.00 0.81 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.168 -0.366 -0.086 0.104 0.138 -0.120 -0.216 0.246 0.153 0.050 PACF -0.168 -0.405 -0.296 -0.202 -0.051 -0.176 -0.344 -0.029 0.000 0.249 95% C.L. 0.417 0.429 0.480 0.482 0.486 0.493 0.498 0.514 0.534 0.542 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.310 -0.263 -0.446 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.194 -0.313 -0.113 0.139 0.127 -0.226 -0.254 0.290 0.180 0.017 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.194 2 -0.265 -0.365 3 -0.382 -0.449 -0.320 4 -0.427 -0.514 -0.374 -0.143 5 -0.430 -0.522 -0.385 -0.152 -0.022 6 -0.436 -0.562 -0.487 -0.290 -0.136 -0.264 7 -0.568 -0.630 -0.632 -0.533 -0.416 -0.482 -0.499 8 -0.702 -0.759 -0.744 -0.676 -0.586 -0.651 -0.651 -0.268 9 -0.780 -0.950 -0.935 -0.848 -0.784 -0.869 -0.874 -0.474 -0.293 10 -0.835 -1.037 -1.096 -1.008 -0.929 -1.025 -1.046 -0.649 -0.437 -0.184 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 106.40 107.51 106.23 105.75 107.28 109.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 109.60 105.02 105.31 105.23 106.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.382 -0.449 -0.320 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.09 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.50 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.382 -0.304 -0.032 0.271 0.008 -0.115 -0.046 0.067 0.032 -.0273 -0.025 0.012 0.016 -0.003 -0.010 0.000 0.005 0.001 -0.003 -.0011 0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 125101 3 0.452 -0.579 -0.520 -0.551 2 125102 3 0.226 -0.229 -0.194 -0.332 3 125111 3 0.262 -0.366 -0.443 -0.350 4 125112 3 0.381 -0.509 -0.596 -0.413 5 125121 3 0.348 0.074 -0.449 -0.290 6 125122 3 0.340 0.037 -0.385 -0.366 7 125131 3 0.649 -1.024 -0.819 -0.186 8 125132 3 0.383 -0.193 -0.482 -0.106 9 125141 3 0.613 -0.535 -0.657 -0.353 10 125142 3 0.377 -0.385 -0.543 -0.369 11 125151 3 0.354 -0.082 0.090 -0.528 12 125152 3 0.338 -0.150 -0.524 -0.280 13 125161 3 0.574 -0.758 -0.233 -0.202 14 125162 3 0.518 -0.754 -0.605 -0.074 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.415 -0.390 -0.454 -0.314 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.128 0.323 0.224 0.139 MEDIAN 3 0.379 -0.375 -0.501 -0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.178 0.429 0.211 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.226 -1.024 -0.819 -0.551 LOWER HINGE 3 0.340 -0.579 -0.596 -0.369 UPPER HINGE 3 0.518 -0.150 -0.385 -0.202 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.649 0.074 0.090 -0.074 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 125101 1979 1998 20 1.000 0.170 -0.444 2.977 0.207 -0.065 2 125102 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.264 -0.719 4.223 0.340 -0.088 3 125111 1979 1998 20 1.000 0.153 0.656 3.463 0.172 -0.009 4 125112 1980 1998 19 1.000 0.160 0.686 2.786 0.187 -0.006 5 125121 1976 1998 23 1.000 0.264 1.895 6.803 0.236 0.054 6 125122 1977 1998 22 1.000 0.219 2.327 7.253 0.195 0.036 7 125131 1981 1998 18 1.000 0.161 0.751 3.240 0.185 -0.017 8 125132 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.189 -0.008 3.202 0.227 -0.048 9 125141 1982 1998 17 1.000 0.122 -0.558 4.469 0.145 -0.181 10 125142 1977 1998 22 1.000 0.182 0.031 3.697 0.234 -0.074 11 125151 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.213 0.312 3.305 0.231 0.109 12 125152 1978 1998 21 1.000 0.197 0.835 2.924 0.212 -0.031 13 125161 1984 1998 15 1.000 0.161 0.194 3.098 0.163 -0.047 14 125162 1981 1998 18 1.000 0.182 0.370 3.955 0.213 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 20 1.000 0.188 0.452 3.957 0.210 -0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 2 0.000 0.041 0.860 1.394 0.047 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 20 1.000 0.182 0.341 3.384 0.209 -0.029 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.000 0.052 0.759 1.125 0.046 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 15 1.000 0.122 -0.719 2.786 0.145 -0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 18 1.000 0.161 -0.008 3.098 0.185 -0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 21 1.000 0.213 0.751 4.223 0.231 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 23 1.000 0.264 2.327 7.253 0.340 0.109 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 21 0.421 0.198 0.043 0.305 4.234 -0.001 0.922 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.001 SERIES 125132 AND 125151 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.922 SERIES 125121 AND 125122 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 23.08 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 21.21 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1976 1998 23 0.988 0.122 0.000 3.167 0.144 -0.120 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.436 0.222 -0.076 6 17 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.48 1.04 1.10 1.59 5.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.115 -0.098 -0.079 -0.248 -0.035 -0.069 -0.094 0.307 0.092 0.172 PACF -0.115 -0.113 -0.107 -0.294 -0.157 -0.217 -0.302 0.070 0.021 0.200 95% C.L. 0.417 0.422 0.426 0.429 0.453 0.454 0.455 0.459 0.493 0.496 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 -0.045 -0.075 -0.357 -0.095 -0.099 -0.058 0.331 0.136 0.191 PACF -0.027 -0.046 -0.078 -0.367 -0.158 -0.201 -0.216 0.128 0.053 0.170 95% C.L. 0.417 0.417 0.418 0.421 0.470 0.474 0.477 0.479 0.517 0.523 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.211 -0.034 -0.051 -0.086 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1976 1998 23 0.984 0.137 -0.472 3.531 0.173 -0.191 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.182 -0.293 -0.092 0.050 0.095 -0.087 -0.225 0.235 0.122 0.157 PACF -0.182 -0.337 -0.263 -0.183 -0.075 -0.174 -0.390 -0.080 -0.088 0.255 95% C.L. 0.417 0.431 0.464 0.467 0.468 0.471 0.474 0.492 0.511 0.516 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.08 MINUTES