RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.443 0.165 0.196 2.666 0.244 0.672 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.414 0.179 0.724 3.600 0.242 0.762 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.319 0.192 0.839 3.062 0.360 0.743 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.305 0.214 1.125 3.495 0.351 0.856 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.403 0.141 0.870 4.831 0.274 0.512 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.457 0.168 0.888 4.192 0.283 0.561 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.501 0.372 0.967 3.261 0.329 0.880 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.387 0.268 1.736 7.453 0.294 0.874 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.340 0.186 1.078 3.981 0.323 0.805 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.366 0.185 0.192 2.101 0.359 0.681 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.332 0.142 0.141 2.553 0.360 0.547 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.458 0.309 2.726 14.877 0.250 0.845 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.514 0.293 1.450 9.535 0.260 0.733 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.428 0.204 0.440 2.941 0.307 0.736 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.407 0.278 1.135 3.947 0.387 0.818 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.387 0.232 1.316 5.087 0.355 0.746 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.383 0.311 3.373 20.609 0.360 0.780 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.504 0.224 0.277 2.798 0.238 0.795 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.619 0.299 -0.103 2.482 0.248 0.840 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.864 0.384 0.517 2.692 0.245 0.772 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.850 0.400 0.006 2.017 0.212 0.864 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.797 0.344 0.248 2.496 0.244 0.801 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.758 0.392 1.222 4.383 0.286 0.766 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.278 0.474 0.472 2.756 0.183 0.818 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.376 0.608 0.229 2.027 0.197 0.841 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.556 0.279 0.882 4.794 0.288 0.762 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.284 0.114 0.819 4.333 0.058 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 0.443 0.268 0.839 3.261 0.283 0.780 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.232 0.157 0.888 1.717 0.106 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.305 0.141 -0.103 2.017 0.183 0.512 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.387 0.186 0.248 2.666 0.244 0.736 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.619 0.344 1.135 4.383 0.351 0.840 MAXIMUM VALUE 299 1.376 0.608 3.373 20.609 0.387 0.880 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.315 0.307 0.018 -0.524 2.677 -0.582 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.582 SERIES 543022 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 543071 AND 543072 295 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.392 0.478 0.496 0.612 0.496 0.304 0.421 0.474 0.565 SDEV 0.312 0.227 0.314 0.178 0.227 0.258 0.259 0.228 0.252 SERR 0.068 0.026 0.027 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.883 0.938 0.950 0.970 0.956 0.912 0.947 0.957 0.969 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.496 0.286 3.918 23.347 0.232 0.828 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.269 0.098 0.191 132 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.29 1.00 1.11 2.40 41.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.826 0.749 0.649 0.501 0.403 0.344 0.306 0.307 0.277 0.297 PACF 0.826 0.211 -0.044 -0.234 -0.013 0.138 0.130 0.104 -0.118 0.071 95% C.L. 0.115 0.178 0.216 0.240 0.254 0.262 0.268 0.273 0.277 0.281 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.785 0.654 0.255 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016135 0.42441767 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095908 0.30324292 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110373 0.18246199 4 543022 1 0.56230652 0.02598472 0.00000000 0.23015736 5 543031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032217 0.44383305 6 543032 1 0.21454716 0.04728027 0.00000000 0.43971738 7 543041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00344088 0.05522034 8 543051 1 1.11197555 0.04646843 0.00000000 0.30521989 9 543052 1 0.51436090 0.01452265 0.00000000 0.21580389 10 543061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163238 0.15822470 11 543062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087411 0.23483430 12 543071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092856 0.31906682 13 543072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00155892 0.28287306 14 543081 1 0.45754150 0.04012279 0.00000000 0.38577047 15 543082 1 0.96898240 0.02301220 0.00000000 0.24449572 16 543091 1 0.80961788 0.03057451 0.00000000 0.29651356 17 543092 1 1.18480158 0.03019234 0.00000000 0.25234684 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193192 0.29924440 19 543102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00300860 0.28895438 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00604038 1.31712222 21 543112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00951728 0.29349774 22 543121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00452254 1.15644038 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00575424 1.21801209 24 543131 1 1.86881483 0.01129033 0.00000000 0.25554171 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01368153 2.18310785 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.373 0.192 2.593 0.243 0.671 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.003 0.425 0.803 3.306 0.241 0.760 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.021 0.652 1.746 7.833 0.365 0.759 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.998 0.654 1.704 6.075 0.351 0.803 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.344 0.870 5.072 0.273 0.491 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.362 1.042 4.981 0.282 0.549 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.053 0.636 1.784 8.528 0.327 0.715 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.547 1.062 4.372 0.293 0.780 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.407 0.758 3.934 0.322 0.558 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.988 0.379 0.004 2.525 0.356 0.481 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.995 0.398 0.203 2.618 0.358 0.476 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.010 0.863 4.811 30.035 0.249 0.853 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.013 0.716 5.550 53.802 0.259 0.639 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.459 0.583 3.442 0.306 0.713 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.493 0.663 3.798 0.389 0.594 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.462 0.958 4.611 0.357 0.595 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.995 0.423 0.457 2.746 0.362 0.522 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.445 1.399 6.628 0.237 0.720 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.974 0.409 0.320 2.928 0.249 0.792 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.990 0.294 0.153 2.561 0.244 0.506 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.987 0.283 -0.223 3.377 0.210 0.615 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.991 0.344 0.314 2.936 0.244 0.673 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.013 0.376 0.848 4.106 0.284 0.533 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.217 -0.501 3.430 0.181 0.513 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.993 0.263 -0.196 2.755 0.195 0.577 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.001 0.449 1.012 7.160 0.287 0.636 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.014 0.154 1.398 11.129 0.059 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.409 0.758 3.798 0.282 0.615 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.005 0.131 0.859 2.144 0.107 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.974 0.217 -0.501 2.525 0.181 0.476 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.995 0.362 0.203 2.928 0.244 0.533 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.493 1.062 5.072 0.351 0.720 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.053 0.863 5.550 53.802 0.389 0.853 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.992 0.339 0.190 2.972 0.243 0.614 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.991 0.356 0.866 4.356 0.241 0.665 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.987 0.460 1.195 5.869 0.365 0.546 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.992 0.445 0.751 3.708 0.351 0.489 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.999 0.338 0.826 5.038 0.273 0.477 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.998 0.344 0.814 4.102 0.282 0.512 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.961 0.379 0.572 3.428 0.327 0.532 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.973 0.446 0.798 3.590 0.293 0.706 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.987 0.349 0.464 3.564 0.322 0.433 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.997 0.352 -0.111 2.836 0.356 0.359 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.996 0.347 0.075 2.937 0.358 0.282 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.989 0.421 0.932 5.915 0.248 0.728 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.973 0.402 1.856 14.100 0.259 0.577 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.986 0.389 0.406 3.078 0.306 0.592 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.987 0.447 0.526 3.401 0.389 0.524 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.991 0.420 0.735 4.049 0.357 0.515 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.995 0.411 0.536 3.164 0.362 0.485 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.991 0.364 0.483 3.896 0.238 0.648 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.998 0.325 1.299 8.143 0.248 0.544 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.995 0.250 -0.055 2.599 0.243 0.330 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.996 0.254 -0.429 3.293 0.209 0.490 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.994 0.292 0.088 2.939 0.243 0.531 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.995 0.322 0.529 4.247 0.284 0.406 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.999 0.212 -0.483 3.384 0.181 0.486 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.993 0.212 -0.159 3.423 0.195 0.373 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.990 0.355 0.508 4.321 0.287 0.514 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.009 0.071 0.544 2.377 0.059 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.992 0.352 0.529 3.564 0.282 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.009 0.086 0.726 1.083 0.108 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.961 0.212 -0.483 2.599 0.181 0.282 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.987 0.325 0.088 3.164 0.243 0.477 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.996 0.411 0.814 4.247 0.351 0.577 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 0.999 0.460 1.856 14.100 0.389 0.728 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.428 0.131 0.008 0.195 3.047 0.132 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.132 SERIES 543051 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 543091 AND 543092 290 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.502 0.513 0.544 0.632 0.538 0.319 0.409 0.525 0.580 SDEV 0.235 0.188 0.198 0.127 0.179 0.204 0.223 0.165 0.183 SERR 0.051 0.021 0.017 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.922 0.946 0.958 0.972 0.962 0.917 0.945 0.964 0.971 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.997 0.313 0.998 5.411 0.256 0.519 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.389 0.127 0.146 104 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.43 1.00 1.05 1.48 167.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.517 0.442 0.377 0.161 0.079 0.054 0.007 0.004 -0.052 0.007 PACF 0.517 0.239 0.115 -0.179 -0.086 0.028 0.033 0.020 -0.096 0.067 95% C.L. 0.115 0.143 0.160 0.172 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.175 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.366 0.381 0.229 0.209 -0.162 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.373 0.325 0.309 0.083 0.024 0.021 0.005 -0.021 -0.089 -0.005 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.373 2 0.292 0.216 3 0.257 0.168 0.162 4 0.280 0.192 0.198 -0.140 5 0.267 0.210 0.216 -0.114 -0.091 6 0.268 0.210 0.215 -0.115 -0.092 0.002 7 0.267 0.215 0.221 -0.126 -0.103 -0.012 0.052 8 0.268 0.215 0.221 -0.127 -0.101 -0.010 0.054 -0.007 9 0.267 0.221 0.219 -0.138 -0.116 0.015 0.079 0.023 -0.115 10 0.273 0.220 0.216 -0.139 -0.110 0.022 0.068 0.013 -0.128 0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2682.26 2639.31 2626.97 2620.95 2617.05 2616.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2618.55 2619.72 2621.71 2619.70 2620.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.267 0.210 0.216 -0.114 -0.091 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 128.71 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.267 0.282 0.347 0.096 0.038 0.049 -0.024 -0.031 -0.016 -.0247 -0.018 -0.008 -0.007 -0.003 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 5 0.431 0.483 0.181 0.143 -0.157 0.071 2 543012 5 0.467 0.579 0.052 0.151 -0.102 0.065 3 543021 5 0.354 0.412 0.193 0.181 -0.079 -0.109 4 543022 5 0.339 0.296 0.253 0.159 -0.059 0.065 5 543031 5 0.302 0.333 0.250 0.160 -0.109 -0.024 6 543032 5 0.338 0.382 0.182 0.229 -0.130 -0.031 7 543041 5 0.345 0.391 0.153 0.158 -0.065 0.067 8 543051 5 0.570 0.410 0.248 0.197 -0.006 -0.011 9 543052 5 0.352 0.187 0.280 0.328 -0.002 -0.080 10 543061 5 0.190 0.285 0.129 0.199 -0.045 -0.087 11 543062 5 0.131 0.259 0.065 0.164 -0.117 -0.045 12 543071 5 0.592 0.539 0.180 0.121 0.045 -0.062 13 543072 5 0.459 0.497 0.112 0.211 -0.109 0.042 14 543081 5 0.410 0.432 0.179 0.165 -0.110 0.068 15 543082 5 0.374 0.308 0.238 0.206 -0.036 0.019 16 543091 5 0.319 0.428 0.144 0.185 -0.178 0.008 17 543092 5 0.288 0.397 0.174 0.140 -0.145 0.003 18 543101 5 0.486 0.506 0.203 0.147 -0.060 -0.083 19 543102 5 0.350 0.520 0.127 0.020 -0.086 0.008 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 5 0.169 0.257 0.117 0.205 -0.030 -0.040 21 543112 5 0.277 0.501 0.079 -0.214 -0.004 0.022 22 543121 5 0.324 0.446 0.145 0.087 -0.078 0.040 23 543122 5 0.196 0.345 0.174 0.014 -0.071 0.037 24 543131 5 0.280 0.429 0.056 0.209 -0.087 -0.079 25 543132 5 0.166 0.325 0.063 0.144 -0.007 -0.049 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.340 0.398 0.159 0.148 -0.073 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.100 0.066 0.098 0.054 0.057 MEDIAN 5 0.339 0.410 0.174 0.160 -0.078 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.130 0.158 0.076 0.056 0.073 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.131 0.187 0.052 -0.214 -0.178 -0.109 LOWER HINGE 5 0.280 0.325 0.117 0.143 -0.109 -0.049 UPPER HINGE 5 0.410 0.483 0.193 0.199 -0.036 0.040 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.592 0.579 0.280 0.328 0.045 0.071 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.256 0.511 4.438 0.281 0.006 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.260 0.436 3.652 0.299 0.004 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.001 0.365 0.427 3.940 0.408 0.019 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.001 0.361 0.621 4.965 0.394 0.000 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.282 0.641 4.787 0.312 0.002 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.280 0.126 3.136 0.322 0.001 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.305 0.282 3.764 0.357 -0.010 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.292 0.025 4.502 0.330 -0.001 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.001 0.279 -0.439 4.005 0.340 0.002 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.317 -0.158 3.045 0.391 -0.006 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.325 0.073 3.228 0.382 0.006 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.264 -0.029 4.048 0.303 -0.019 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.285 0.960 8.230 0.305 -0.068 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.299 0.106 3.417 0.353 -0.004 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.001 0.351 0.254 3.149 0.414 0.001 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.347 0.223 3.290 0.410 0.001 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.345 0.102 3.005 0.416 -0.003 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.259 0.191 3.855 0.288 -0.025 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.256 0.183 3.999 0.296 -0.037 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.228 -0.238 2.713 0.264 0.005 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.216 -0.309 4.259 0.253 -0.001 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.239 -0.260 3.051 0.282 -0.002 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.287 0.480 4.043 0.318 -0.003 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.180 -0.393 3.447 0.209 -0.003 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.194 0.019 3.336 0.214 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.283 0.153 3.892 0.326 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.050 0.347 1.080 0.060 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.282 0.126 3.764 0.318 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.061 0.456 0.820 0.094 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.180 -0.439 2.713 0.209 -0.068 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.256 -0.029 3.228 0.288 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.317 0.427 4.048 0.382 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.001 0.365 0.960 8.230 0.416 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.526 0.096 0.006 -0.109 3.146 0.261 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.261 SERIES 543051 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 543091 AND 543092 290 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.590 0.598 0.535 0.616 0.592 0.455 0.506 0.585 0.619 SDEV 0.106 0.093 0.118 0.103 0.134 0.153 0.135 0.116 0.133 SERR 0.023 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.944 0.961 0.957 0.970 0.969 0.952 0.962 0.972 0.975 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.995 0.222 -0.165 3.303 0.270 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.195 0.052 0.133 105 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.90 1.01 1.09 1.99 327.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 0.021 0.045 -0.070 -0.118 -0.045 -0.009 0.020 -0.104 0.070 PACF -0.058 0.017 0.047 -0.066 -0.129 -0.060 -0.004 0.030 -0.117 0.033 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.004 0.007 -0.011 -0.005 -0.055 -0.001 0.014 -0.129 0.044 PACF -0.008 -0.004 0.007 -0.011 -0.005 -0.055 -0.002 0.014 -0.129 0.041 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.004 -0.008 -0.004 0.007 -0.012 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.994 0.248 0.388 3.520 0.233 0.370 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.369 0.321 0.293 0.059 -0.004 -0.067 -0.089 -0.091 -0.172 -0.068 PACF 0.369 0.214 0.146 -0.155 -0.103 -0.078 0.005 0.002 -0.115 0.043 95% C.L. 0.115 0.130 0.140 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.153 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.230 0.259 0.205 0.231 -0.104 -0.077 -0.085 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES