RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 543012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1841 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / 1856 1860 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1806 1810 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.117 0.062 3.456 19.162 0.240 0.675 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.094 0.025 0.612 3.107 0.220 0.396 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.203 0.154 2.440 11.011 0.328 0.667 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.138 0.069 1.581 6.024 0.248 0.797 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.116 0.044 1.560 7.258 0.266 0.515 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.119 0.046 1.289 4.289 0.248 0.596 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.182 0.094 2.439 12.203 0.308 0.484 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.183 0.149 2.593 11.075 0.280 0.776 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.124 0.066 1.683 6.932 0.240 0.775 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.158 0.065 2.281 10.655 0.238 0.654 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.138 0.046 2.710 17.690 0.221 0.507 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.128 0.063 3.577 23.807 0.229 0.694 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.165 0.105 2.797 14.153 0.290 0.721 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.129 0.065 1.764 6.357 0.278 0.733 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.125 0.086 2.541 10.747 0.264 0.742 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.105 0.053 1.393 5.916 0.348 0.575 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.105 0.050 1.654 6.754 0.288 0.651 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.147 0.067 2.072 10.444 0.269 0.573 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.188 0.083 1.699 8.061 0.327 0.382 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.181 0.125 1.924 7.259 0.339 0.704 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.179 0.077 1.472 6.836 0.324 0.325 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.191 0.093 1.020 3.831 0.285 0.688 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.252 0.167 1.504 5.187 0.321 0.715 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.179 0.110 2.640 12.348 0.405 0.413 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.195 0.079 1.004 4.734 0.380 0.300 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 229 0.154 0.082 1.988 9.434 0.287 0.602 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.039 0.036 0.744 5.084 0.049 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 0.147 0.069 1.764 7.259 0.280 0.654 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.058 0.032 1.038 5.051 0.076 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.094 0.025 0.612 3.107 0.220 0.300 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.124 0.062 1.504 6.024 0.248 0.507 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.182 0.094 2.541 11.075 0.324 0.715 MAXIMUM VALUE 299 0.252 0.167 3.577 23.807 0.405 0.797 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.229 0.225 0.013 -0.165 2.649 -0.323 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.323 SERIES 543022 AND 543121 158 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 543081 AND 543082 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.495 0.338 0.458 0.434 0.407 0.251 0.218 0.301 0.351 SDEV 0.210 0.222 0.207 0.200 0.217 0.239 0.221 0.217 0.214 SERR 0.046 0.025 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.920 0.894 0.942 0.939 0.938 0.888 0.874 0.913 0.929 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.145 0.060 3.390 23.131 0.193 0.695 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.326 0.143 0.034 181 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.22 3.23 1.00 1.32 4.55 46.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.693 0.616 0.602 0.567 0.508 0.433 0.473 0.412 0.405 0.410 PACF 0.693 0.261 0.218 0.109 0.009 -0.068 0.154 -0.043 0.072 0.068 95% C.L. 0.115 0.162 0.190 0.214 0.233 0.248 0.258 0.269 0.277 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.591 0.352 0.146 0.218 0.160 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 1 0.11004552 0.02329790 0.00000000 0.09675904 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000899 0.09273226 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105932 0.06948822 4 543022 1 0.25173873 0.03348531 0.00000000 0.11171784 5 543031 1 0.06690649 0.01901556 0.00000000 0.10272773 6 543032 1 0.08300709 0.01647350 0.00000000 0.09961028 7 543041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012998 0.16487347 8 543051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007612 0.17184184 9 543052 1 0.19870876 0.01072781 0.00000000 0.06115600 10 543061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007116 0.14796109 11 543062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018260 0.15873793 12 543071 1 0.36183873 0.09180526 0.00000000 0.11560006 13 543072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025288 0.12806572 14 543081 1 0.27467960 0.03520906 0.00000000 0.09981304 15 543082 1 0.33456719 0.02863708 0.00000000 0.07958243 16 543091 1 0.14689609 0.02579284 0.00000000 0.08499433 17 543092 1 0.18508399 0.04654812 0.00000000 0.09188809 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020683 0.12509005 19 543102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020756 0.16459376 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181582 0.31732723 21 543112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017491 0.16856073 22 543121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153828 0.31292590 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00255696 0.45688400 24 543131 1 0.26136824 0.02215912 0.00000000 0.08823948 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115797 0.26379016 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.418 2.625 14.828 0.239 0.581 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.264 0.671 3.204 0.217 0.396 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.036 0.677 1.976 7.763 0.349 0.668 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.999 0.366 1.321 5.037 0.251 0.632 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.354 2.184 12.993 0.265 0.442 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.336 1.268 4.995 0.248 0.471 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.516 2.675 14.821 0.307 0.480 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.803 2.459 10.334 0.287 0.770 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.308 1.140 7.360 0.239 0.420 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.413 2.410 11.378 0.236 0.653 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.999 0.313 2.583 16.891 0.220 0.460 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.323 1.098 5.156 0.227 0.526 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.003 0.646 2.928 14.265 0.290 0.693 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.298 0.913 5.094 0.284 0.196 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.999 0.312 0.634 4.198 0.271 0.356 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.424 1.330 7.712 0.351 0.418 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.372 1.104 5.938 0.292 0.513 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.999 0.438 1.937 9.402 0.268 0.563 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.999 0.432 1.626 8.257 0.336 0.355 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.006 0.446 1.678 6.859 0.337 0.446 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.430 1.662 8.324 0.321 0.304 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.008 0.306 0.832 4.194 0.284 0.223 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.036 0.445 0.917 3.442 0.320 0.516 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.001 0.405 1.445 6.991 0.402 0.119 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.998 0.335 0.642 4.232 0.377 0.034 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.003 0.415 1.602 8.147 0.289 0.449 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.010 0.128 0.712 3.996 0.050 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.405 1.445 7.360 0.284 0.460 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.001 0.116 1.087 5.297 0.074 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.998 0.264 0.634 3.204 0.217 0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.323 1.098 5.037 0.248 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.438 2.184 10.334 0.321 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.036 0.803 2.928 16.891 0.402 0.770 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.996 0.401 2.855 16.404 0.239 0.546 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.998 0.243 0.792 3.834 0.218 0.309 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.983 0.509 2.312 11.899 0.349 0.465 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.997 0.278 0.591 3.437 0.251 0.384 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.999 0.351 2.216 13.218 0.265 0.432 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.999 0.334 1.365 5.432 0.248 0.459 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.985 0.442 3.280 22.153 0.307 0.399 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.956 0.571 2.162 8.972 0.288 0.652 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.996 0.288 1.062 7.134 0.239 0.351 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.998 0.402 2.463 11.744 0.236 0.641 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.998 0.284 2.227 14.643 0.220 0.382 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.997 0.293 1.377 6.972 0.227 0.419 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.984 0.446 2.045 10.650 0.291 0.612 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.998 0.280 0.854 4.842 0.284 0.108 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.998 0.305 0.603 4.176 0.271 0.326 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.994 0.395 1.105 6.618 0.351 0.356 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.993 0.322 0.600 4.336 0.292 0.376 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.986 0.320 1.367 7.409 0.269 0.356 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.991 0.350 1.386 7.258 0.336 0.166 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.987 0.355 1.323 5.721 0.337 0.218 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.988 0.349 0.877 4.367 0.322 0.170 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.999 0.291 0.775 3.975 0.284 0.145 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.991 0.363 0.842 3.588 0.319 0.337 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.996 0.384 1.348 6.495 0.401 0.046 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.999 0.324 0.515 4.123 0.377 0.004 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.992 0.355 1.454 7.976 0.289 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.009 0.077 0.776 4.736 0.050 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.996 0.349 1.348 6.618 0.284 0.356 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.010 0.103 1.320 6.314 0.075 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.956 0.243 0.515 3.437 0.218 0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.988 0.293 0.842 4.336 0.248 0.218 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.998 0.395 2.162 10.650 0.322 0.432 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 0.999 0.571 3.280 22.153 0.401 0.652 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.280 0.127 0.007 0.257 2.738 -0.031 0.634 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.031 SERIES 543051 AND 543131 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.634 SERIES 543032 AND 543061 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.378 0.375 0.423 0.455 0.423 0.275 0.249 0.340 0.322 SDEV 0.206 0.193 0.183 0.182 0.212 0.202 0.185 0.191 0.181 SERR 0.045 0.022 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.876 0.909 0.933 0.944 0.941 0.900 0.891 0.927 0.919 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.969 0.204 0.944 6.029 0.192 0.294 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.556 0.264 -0.002 129 171 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.15 1.00 1.12 2.28 9.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.293 0.197 0.132 0.082 0.004 -0.037 0.085 -0.079 -0.110 -0.091 PACF 0.293 0.121 0.051 0.014 -0.049 -0.050 0.119 -0.126 -0.088 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.115 0.125 0.129 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.102 0.258 0.121 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.288 0.204 0.194 0.122 0.008 -0.043 0.126 -0.063 -0.172 -0.130 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.288 2 0.250 0.131 3 0.235 0.102 0.116 4 0.232 0.100 0.111 0.024 5 0.234 0.108 0.118 0.043 -0.078 6 0.228 0.112 0.127 0.051 -0.060 -0.076 7 0.240 0.122 0.119 0.030 -0.079 -0.113 0.164 8 0.260 0.108 0.110 0.033 -0.064 -0.099 0.193 -0.119 9 0.240 0.141 0.093 0.023 -0.059 -0.080 0.211 -0.075 -0.169 10 0.228 0.135 0.108 0.017 -0.063 -0.079 0.218 -0.065 -0.152 -0.070 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2568.11 2544.12 2540.89 2538.79 2540.61 2540.78 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2541.05 2534.86 2532.58 2525.87 2526.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.235 0.102 0.116 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.49 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.235 0.157 0.177 0.085 0.057 0.043 0.026 0.017 0.012 0.0075 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 3 0.356 0.394 0.173 0.127 2 543012 3 0.133 0.239 0.175 0.063 3 543021 3 0.234 0.407 0.100 0.040 4 543022 3 0.176 0.312 0.140 0.069 5 543031 3 0.203 0.378 0.071 0.087 6 543032 3 0.250 0.358 0.174 0.060 7 543041 3 0.184 0.362 0.020 0.135 8 543051 3 0.484 0.438 0.255 0.081 9 543052 3 0.171 0.275 0.120 0.134 10 543061 3 0.446 0.571 0.159 -0.056 11 543062 3 0.172 0.322 0.091 0.103 12 543071 3 0.186 0.374 0.100 0.014 13 543072 3 0.400 0.601 0.016 0.040 14 543081 3 0.057 0.103 -0.001 0.190 15 543082 3 0.142 0.260 0.122 0.111 16 543091 3 0.141 0.310 0.106 0.041 17 543092 3 0.183 0.299 0.142 0.089 18 543101 3 0.155 0.323 0.041 0.130 19 543102 3 0.070 0.117 0.164 0.108 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 3 0.082 0.189 0.062 0.123 21 543112 3 0.075 0.167 0.055 0.059 22 543121 3 0.038 0.151 -0.039 -0.058 23 543122 3 0.117 0.347 -0.023 -0.014 24 543131 3 0.020 0.053 -0.057 0.081 25 543132 3 0.016 0.005 0.049 -0.022 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.180 0.294 0.089 0.069 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.126 0.145 0.077 0.062 MEDIAN 3 0.171 0.312 0.100 0.081 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.120 0.185 0.101 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.016 0.005 -0.057 -0.058 LOWER HINGE 3 0.082 0.189 0.041 0.040 UPPER HINGE 3 0.203 0.374 0.142 0.111 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.484 0.601 0.255 0.190 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.325 1.865 13.131 0.301 0.016 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.226 0.571 3.544 0.248 -0.002 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.001 0.444 2.547 15.768 0.401 0.011 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.252 0.453 3.044 0.292 -0.003 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.313 2.307 15.934 0.325 -0.001 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.290 1.193 6.002 0.298 0.004 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.401 3.291 26.336 0.362 -0.010 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.005 0.397 1.593 8.633 0.357 0.034 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.264 1.336 10.105 0.270 -0.015 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.302 1.422 8.520 0.321 -0.015 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.259 2.270 17.792 0.261 0.005 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.264 1.252 6.966 0.267 -0.001 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.343 1.550 8.715 0.358 -0.011 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.274 0.821 4.592 0.297 -0.018 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.283 0.614 4.286 0.307 -0.008 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.366 1.035 6.205 0.386 -0.001 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.293 0.376 3.834 0.332 -0.006 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.294 1.393 8.727 0.307 -0.002 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.337 1.438 7.630 0.348 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.343 1.310 5.398 0.363 -0.015 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.341 0.901 4.450 0.350 -0.020 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.287 0.645 3.783 0.304 0.005 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.342 0.875 3.971 0.368 0.000 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.382 1.353 6.677 0.413 -0.007 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.324 0.499 4.140 0.378 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.318 1.316 8.327 0.329 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.001 0.053 0.715 5.593 0.045 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.313 1.310 6.677 0.325 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.060 0.729 4.441 0.064 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.226 0.376 3.044 0.248 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.283 0.821 4.286 0.298 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.343 1.550 8.727 0.362 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.005 0.444 3.291 26.336 0.413 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.322 0.101 0.006 0.194 2.955 -0.007 0.614 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 543071 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.614 SERIES 543031 AND 543032 252 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.379 0.366 0.393 0.447 0.421 0.313 0.322 0.390 0.359 SDEV 0.150 0.165 0.147 0.145 0.160 0.153 0.139 0.148 0.145 SERR 0.033 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.877 0.905 0.925 0.942 0.941 0.916 0.921 0.940 0.931 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.984 0.188 0.557 5.171 0.218 -0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.443 0.192 0.028 123 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.06 1.00 1.13 2.19 17.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 -0.029 -0.027 0.015 -0.063 -0.070 0.144 -0.062 -0.075 -0.041 PACF -0.063 -0.034 -0.032 0.010 -0.063 -0.079 0.132 -0.055 -0.079 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 0.008 -0.066 -0.070 0.130 -0.066 -0.084 -0.052 PACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 0.008 -0.066 -0.070 0.131 -0.068 -0.086 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.984 0.198 0.829 5.600 0.189 0.278 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.277 0.182 0.164 0.078 -0.025 -0.049 0.068 -0.095 -0.133 -0.109 PACF 0.277 0.114 0.097 -0.004 -0.083 -0.053 0.109 -0.120 -0.099 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.115 0.124 0.128 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.133 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.097 0.235 0.090 0.097 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES