RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 543011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1759 1764 / 1835 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 4 GAPS / 1715 1719 / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 543041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1842 1847 / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 543072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / 1841 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1752 1756 / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 543121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1881 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 543122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1881 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 543131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 543132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1882 1886 / 1963 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.278 0.024 0.668 3.881 0.060 0.609 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.274 0.027 0.222 2.954 0.068 0.612 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.325 0.038 0.602 3.958 0.073 0.582 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.326 0.036 0.776 4.124 0.084 0.448 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.291 0.022 0.205 3.141 0.064 0.397 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.264 0.025 0.408 3.045 0.076 0.472 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.329 0.055 0.066 1.951 0.070 0.860 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.324 0.030 0.723 3.822 0.066 0.536 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.329 0.036 0.582 3.804 0.068 0.549 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.352 0.039 0.982 4.038 0.066 0.629 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.356 0.038 0.881 3.687 0.076 0.509 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.288 0.042 0.284 2.962 0.066 0.834 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.268 0.036 1.015 4.242 0.064 0.775 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.293 0.031 0.298 5.528 0.079 0.502 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.292 0.039 1.789 7.866 0.088 0.552 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.274 0.030 0.453 3.332 0.095 0.358 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.276 0.032 0.889 4.269 0.095 0.383 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.295 0.036 0.688 3.827 0.059 0.817 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.291 0.052 1.369 4.161 0.059 0.910 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.265 0.022 0.268 3.006 0.070 0.433 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.271 0.042 1.169 3.720 0.076 0.781 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.287 0.030 0.942 4.515 0.074 0.536 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.296 0.026 0.636 3.945 0.077 0.362 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.250 0.020 0.551 3.126 0.079 0.243 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.247 0.020 0.831 4.973 0.077 0.318 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 227 0.294 0.033 0.692 3.915 0.073 0.560 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.030 0.009 0.397 1.099 0.010 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 0.291 0.032 0.668 3.827 0.073 0.536 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.050 0.011 0.481 1.020 0.012 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 106 0.247 0.020 0.066 1.951 0.059 0.243 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.274 0.026 0.408 3.141 0.066 0.433 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.324 0.038 0.889 4.161 0.077 0.629 MAXIMUM VALUE 296 0.356 0.055 1.789 7.866 0.095 0.910 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.334 0.202 0.012 -0.221 2.731 -0.197 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.197 SERIES 543072 AND 543082 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 543102 AND 543112 116 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.377 0.361 0.332 0.453 0.370 0.277 0.420 0.453 0.449 SDEV 0.171 0.250 0.279 0.187 0.198 0.227 0.227 0.205 0.156 SERR 0.037 0.028 0.024 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.876 0.903 0.905 0.943 0.928 0.901 0.947 0.953 0.951 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.295 0.022 -0.070 3.623 0.057 0.550 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.624 0.306 -0.051 68 232 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.51 1.00 1.04 1.55 5.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.549 0.587 0.565 0.474 0.504 0.452 0.421 0.461 0.403 0.392 PACF 0.549 0.410 0.258 0.032 0.113 0.044 0.009 0.111 0.021 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.115 0.146 0.175 0.198 0.212 0.228 0.239 0.249 0.260 0.268 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.479 0.202 0.329 0.285 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018709 0.30048874 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023798 0.30121008 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014510 0.34377185 4 543022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003420 0.32095474 5 543031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004374 0.28564316 6 543032 1 0.02922598 0.01383692 0.00000000 0.25601819 7 543041 1 0.40486515 0.00187357 0.00000000 0.00707181 8 543051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007664 0.33535460 9 543052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007368 0.33937901 10 543061 1 0.10674661 0.01170234 0.00000000 0.31717864 11 543062 1 0.09972775 0.01901612 0.00000000 0.33289215 12 543071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030516 0.33420753 13 543072 1 0.10070430 0.00523619 0.00000000 0.21707976 14 543081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013602 0.31174326 15 543082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009702 0.28062078 16 543091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013269 0.25499928 17 543092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008022 0.26467532 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039182 0.33636695 19 543102 1 0.18802243 0.01939794 0.00000000 0.24740954 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027778 0.28613549 21 543112 1 0.15052855 0.04267413 0.00000000 0.24165465 22 543121 1 0.04460663 0.02133554 0.00000000 0.27511343 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007731 0.30305326 24 543131 1 0.01189011 0.01925412 0.00000000 0.24501760 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016662 0.23834366 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.070 0.569 3.530 0.061 0.400 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.080 0.098 3.207 0.068 0.410 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.113 0.718 4.055 0.075 0.535 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.111 0.734 3.971 0.084 0.435 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.075 0.212 3.270 0.064 0.378 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.090 0.418 3.178 0.076 0.415 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.097 -0.017 2.940 0.070 0.620 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.092 0.850 4.002 0.066 0.509 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.107 0.736 4.229 0.068 0.527 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.078 1.491 8.076 0.066 0.270 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.080 1.093 6.327 0.076 0.141 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.107 -0.074 3.212 0.066 0.687 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.100 0.574 4.849 0.066 0.591 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.100 0.491 6.122 0.080 0.434 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.130 1.681 7.563 0.090 0.521 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.102 0.668 4.137 0.095 0.241 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.114 0.796 4.145 0.096 0.331 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.090 0.374 3.497 0.059 0.672 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.072 0.337 3.497 0.060 0.441 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.070 0.184 2.915 0.070 0.206 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.076 0.213 3.190 0.075 0.242 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.092 0.477 3.101 0.073 0.464 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.090 0.631 3.593 0.077 0.387 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.081 0.607 3.313 0.079 0.209 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.075 0.656 4.565 0.073 0.227 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.092 0.581 4.179 0.073 0.412 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.016 0.413 1.402 0.010 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.090 0.574 3.593 0.073 0.415 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.024 0.398 1.017 0.010 0.251 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.070 -0.074 2.915 0.059 0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.078 0.337 3.212 0.066 0.270 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.102 0.734 4.229 0.077 0.521 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.130 1.681 8.076 0.096 0.687 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.068 0.508 3.397 0.061 0.356 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.075 0.192 3.361 0.068 0.335 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.999 0.096 1.114 5.990 0.075 0.352 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.095 0.967 5.019 0.084 0.254 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.067 0.219 3.290 0.064 0.224 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.082 0.542 3.475 0.076 0.282 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.999 0.078 -0.099 2.973 0.070 0.398 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.079 0.847 4.683 0.066 0.339 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.080 1.783 12.040 0.068 0.152 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.075 1.669 8.734 0.066 0.211 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.078 1.147 6.709 0.076 0.094 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.999 0.089 0.427 3.731 0.066 0.553 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.999 0.084 0.618 5.645 0.066 0.438 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.093 0.315 6.574 0.080 0.358 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.999 0.106 1.315 7.168 0.090 0.320 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.100 0.633 3.985 0.095 0.201 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.111 0.825 4.249 0.096 0.296 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.999 0.081 0.495 4.502 0.059 0.591 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.066 0.292 3.823 0.060 0.334 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.067 0.168 2.740 0.070 0.134 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.071 0.262 3.463 0.075 0.116 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.086 0.506 3.386 0.073 0.372 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.077 0.700 3.823 0.077 0.200 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.077 0.658 3.433 0.079 0.126 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.072 0.491 4.159 0.073 0.169 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.082 0.664 4.814 0.073 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.012 0.462 2.124 0.010 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.079 0.542 3.985 0.073 0.296 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.014 0.532 2.212 0.010 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.999 0.066 -0.099 2.740 0.059 0.094 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.075 0.315 3.433 0.066 0.200 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.089 0.847 5.645 0.077 0.356 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.111 1.783 12.040 0.096 0.591 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.359 0.107 0.006 -0.005 3.450 0.067 0.689 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.067 SERIES 543021 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.689 SERIES 543081 AND 543082 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.439 0.409 0.381 0.460 0.411 0.284 0.410 0.486 0.473 SDEV 0.150 0.199 0.220 0.165 0.152 0.188 0.197 0.157 0.143 SERR 0.033 0.022 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.901 0.920 0.922 0.945 0.939 0.904 0.945 0.959 0.956 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.994 0.056 0.288 4.094 0.059 0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.422 0.170 -0.105 97 203 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.69 1.00 1.13 1.81 12.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.116 0.218 0.199 0.022 0.115 0.058 0.005 0.114 0.002 -0.016 PACF 0.116 0.207 0.164 -0.055 0.047 0.024 -0.027 0.080 -0.016 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.122 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.130 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.088 0.057 0.195 0.172 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.083 0.154 0.246 -0.045 0.116 0.046 -0.015 0.122 -0.007 -0.048 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.083 2 0.071 0.148 3 0.037 0.132 0.229 4 0.060 0.145 0.233 -0.102 5 0.066 0.131 0.224 -0.105 0.061 6 0.066 0.131 0.224 -0.105 0.061 0.000 7 0.066 0.131 0.224 -0.104 0.062 0.000 -0.007 8 0.067 0.131 0.219 -0.096 0.044 -0.010 -0.012 0.079 9 0.068 0.131 0.219 -0.095 0.043 -0.007 -0.010 0.079 -0.013 10 0.067 0.137 0.218 -0.096 0.047 -0.014 0.007 0.090 -0.008 -0.077 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1743.26 1743.20 1738.57 1724.35 1723.23 1724.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1726.11 1728.10 1728.24 1730.19 1730.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.060 0.145 0.233 -0.102 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.79 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.060 0.149 0.251 -0.051 0.062 0.040 -0.026 0.024 0.001 -.0066 0.008 -0.003 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 4 0.200 0.236 0.219 0.130 -0.004 2 543012 4 0.189 0.233 0.241 0.040 0.036 3 543021 4 0.206 0.251 0.136 0.226 -0.037 4 543022 4 0.167 0.141 0.184 0.228 0.008 5 543031 4 0.151 0.125 0.236 0.159 0.004 6 543032 4 0.187 0.167 0.225 0.170 -0.004 7 543041 4 0.218 0.307 0.139 0.138 -0.019 8 543051 4 0.237 0.168 0.150 0.253 0.099 9 543052 4 0.129 0.067 0.152 0.271 0.020 10 543061 4 0.131 0.129 0.182 0.208 -0.026 11 543062 4 0.078 0.042 0.155 0.193 0.015 12 543071 4 0.407 0.338 0.224 0.091 0.107 13 543072 4 0.259 0.325 0.117 0.182 0.020 14 543081 4 0.226 0.249 0.148 0.253 -0.059 15 543082 4 0.214 0.222 0.133 0.189 0.017 16 543091 4 0.111 0.140 0.250 0.099 -0.092 17 543092 4 0.185 0.166 0.196 0.171 0.069 18 543101 4 0.410 0.444 0.246 0.090 -0.099 19 543102 4 0.199 0.211 0.245 0.118 0.015 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 4 0.054 0.129 -0.037 0.169 0.057 21 543112 4 0.053 0.100 0.082 0.076 -0.009 22 543121 4 0.264 0.282 0.197 0.255 -0.151 23 543122 4 0.083 0.183 0.085 0.103 -0.096 24 543131 4 0.075 0.112 0.147 0.139 -0.154 25 543132 4 0.121 0.174 0.097 0.216 -0.221 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.182 0.197 0.166 0.167 -0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.093 0.067 0.063 0.079 MEDIAN 4 0.187 0.174 0.155 0.170 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 0.119 0.088 0.098 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.053 0.042 -0.037 0.040 -0.221 LOWER HINGE 4 0.121 0.129 0.136 0.118 -0.059 UPPER HINGE 4 0.218 0.249 0.224 0.216 0.020 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.410 0.444 0.250 0.271 0.107 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.060 0.197 3.062 0.069 -0.003 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.069 0.102 3.455 0.077 -0.005 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.086 1.370 7.735 0.084 -0.004 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.087 1.033 5.144 0.092 -0.001 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.062 0.360 2.996 0.068 0.001 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.075 0.701 4.200 0.083 0.002 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.070 -0.021 3.197 0.080 0.003 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.069 0.900 6.151 0.073 -0.002 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.075 1.995 12.496 0.071 -0.002 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.070 1.602 9.655 0.070 0.001 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.075 1.312 8.031 0.076 -0.001 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.069 0.514 3.255 0.077 -0.024 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.072 0.640 5.244 0.078 -0.011 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.083 0.125 7.032 0.087 0.008 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.097 1.412 7.127 0.102 -0.006 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.094 0.701 4.525 0.101 0.000 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.100 1.103 5.404 0.105 -0.005 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.062 0.152 3.719 0.072 0.008 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.059 0.248 3.094 0.067 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.065 0.253 2.532 0.073 -0.003 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.070 0.279 3.226 0.079 0.001 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.073 0.273 3.251 0.080 0.007 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.075 0.736 4.125 0.082 0.013 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.074 0.624 3.280 0.081 0.004 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.067 0.506 4.060 0.075 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.074 0.685 5.040 0.080 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.011 0.534 2.451 0.010 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.072 0.624 4.125 0.078 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.006 0.780 2.900 0.010 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.059 -0.021 2.532 0.067 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.069 0.253 3.251 0.073 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.075 1.033 6.151 0.083 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.100 1.995 12.496 0.105 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.409 0.087 0.005 0.103 3.631 0.133 0.692 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.133 SERIES 543022 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.692 SERIES 543061 AND 543062 222 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.463 0.496 0.422 0.500 0.487 0.371 0.408 0.496 0.469 SDEV 0.151 0.126 0.150 0.128 0.128 0.136 0.139 0.127 0.132 SERR 0.033 0.014 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.910 0.942 0.933 0.953 0.954 0.933 0.945 0.960 0.955 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.997 0.052 0.289 4.227 0.062 -0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.456 0.162 -0.108 118 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.48 1.00 1.07 1.55 11.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.143 0.002 -0.024 -0.113 0.046 -0.015 -0.018 0.118 -0.019 -0.019 PACF -0.143 -0.019 -0.027 -0.123 0.012 -0.010 -0.030 0.103 0.019 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.115 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 -0.144 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.001 -0.004 0.012 0.014 -0.015 -0.020 0.107 -0.010 -0.043 PACF 0.002 -0.001 -0.004 0.012 0.014 -0.015 -0.020 0.107 -0.011 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.004 0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.997 0.054 0.169 4.308 0.058 0.082 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.082 0.158 0.248 -0.042 0.093 0.041 -0.042 0.098 -0.018 -0.055 PACF 0.082 0.152 0.232 -0.099 0.032 -0.003 -0.031 0.070 -0.017 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.119 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.095 0.058 0.151 0.239 -0.103 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES