RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 543052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 2.135 0.685 1.620 6.455 0.215 0.599 2 543012 1750 1978 229 2.009 0.590 0.511 3.175 0.236 0.511 3 543021 1736 1978 243 3.886 1.148 0.795 3.947 0.235 0.396 4 543022 1686 1978 293 3.476 1.056 1.191 5.838 0.239 0.328 5 543031 1725 1978 254 2.289 0.581 1.613 9.619 0.225 0.240 6 543032 1727 1978 252 2.125 0.576 0.869 4.663 0.235 0.300 7 543041 1721 1978 258 3.249 1.428 0.607 3.008 0.259 0.722 8 543051 1690 1978 289 3.289 1.006 0.752 3.255 0.211 0.558 9 543052 1701 1978 278 2.796 0.888 1.566 7.992 0.265 0.264 10 543061 1729 1978 250 3.322 1.206 1.088 4.221 0.228 0.537 11 543062 1757 1978 222 3.172 1.103 1.323 5.294 0.237 0.518 12 543071 1679 1978 300 2.494 0.941 1.133 4.849 0.204 0.736 13 543072 1684 1978 295 2.562 0.771 0.583 3.398 0.213 0.523 14 543081 1711 1978 268 2.479 0.878 0.596 3.399 0.292 0.464 15 543082 1720 1978 259 2.644 1.114 1.423 5.482 0.329 0.430 16 543091 1689 1978 290 2.328 0.898 0.923 5.038 0.370 0.268 17 543092 1682 1978 297 2.559 1.172 0.996 3.716 0.307 0.631 18 543101 1752 1962 211 2.417 0.855 1.497 6.087 0.247 0.606 19 543102 1762 1978 217 2.655 1.337 1.852 6.707 0.271 0.719 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.684 0.577 1.224 5.605 0.278 0.410 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.978 1.002 1.709 6.577 0.261 0.674 22 543121 1821 1978 158 2.009 0.664 0.733 3.982 0.278 0.426 23 543122 1820 1978 159 2.439 0.696 0.580 3.247 0.287 0.136 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.237 0.481 1.307 5.605 0.376 0.169 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.364 0.524 0.813 4.851 0.344 0.387 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 2.504 0.887 1.092 5.040 0.266 0.462 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.645 0.267 0.407 1.631 0.048 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 2.479 0.888 1.088 4.851 0.259 0.464 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 66 0.671 0.439 0.671 2.123 0.052 0.271 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.237 0.481 0.511 3.008 0.204 0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 2.125 0.664 0.752 3.716 0.235 0.328 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 277 2.796 1.103 1.423 5.838 0.287 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 299 3.886 1.428 1.852 9.619 0.376 0.736 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.268 0.209 0.012 -0.188 2.458 -0.264 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 543051 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 543061 AND 543062 222 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.250 0.376 0.265 0.336 0.272 0.223 0.338 0.346 0.325 SDEV 0.237 0.165 0.224 0.180 0.222 0.179 0.186 0.218 0.217 SERR 0.052 0.019 0.019 0.014 0.016 0.011 0.012 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.795 0.909 0.873 0.911 0.891 0.872 0.927 0.928 0.920 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 2.520 0.554 0.154 2.941 0.178 0.467 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.653 0.354 -0.014 150 150 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.86 1.00 1.11 1.97 10.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.465 0.441 0.452 0.373 0.356 0.360 0.316 0.349 0.289 0.336 PACF 0.465 0.287 0.240 0.075 0.068 0.086 0.029 0.100 -0.009 0.100 95% C.L. 0.115 0.138 0.156 0.172 0.183 0.192 0.201 0.207 0.215 0.220 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.346 0.234 0.194 0.231 0.088 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 1 1.34837437 0.01066385 0.00000000 1.64179420 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00367081 2.43092036 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295217 3.54182172 4 543022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123449 3.30241084 5 543031 1 1.21162188 0.04927247 0.00000000 2.19500279 6 543032 1 0.55366200 0.00986859 0.00000000 1.92176974 7 543041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01550089 5.25589323 8 543051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00373806 2.75180626 9 543052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00151597 3.00916290 10 543061 1 3.19074082 0.01015962 0.00000000 2.17019749 11 543062 1 2.84269333 0.01504248 0.00000000 2.35743618 12 543071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00725753 3.58348441 13 543072 1 1.60673118 0.00579491 0.00000000 1.79425287 14 543081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00374644 2.98645282 15 543082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041399 2.59779549 16 543091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112997 2.16808581 17 543092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00445329 1.89726138 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00709982 3.16912127 19 543102 1 4.67569399 0.02782454 0.00000000 1.90307403 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 1 0.77881593 0.01294333 0.00000000 1.34142590 21 543112 1 3.41343689 0.04494105 0.00000000 1.34134638 22 543121 1 0.78458911 0.03423053 0.00000000 1.86671436 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00492587 2.83300066 24 543131 1 0.15790536 0.05204172 0.00000000 1.21235430 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00572367 1.02640581 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.259 0.868 4.129 0.214 0.453 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.263 0.317 3.074 0.235 0.403 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.290 0.725 3.943 0.234 0.390 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.299 1.087 5.476 0.238 0.315 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.236 1.863 14.047 0.224 0.106 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.267 1.195 6.469 0.234 0.247 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.011 0.302 1.524 9.356 0.258 0.286 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.999 0.285 0.640 3.087 0.211 0.499 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.317 1.768 9.568 0.263 0.233 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.279 2.300 13.818 0.227 0.191 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.264 1.903 9.742 0.236 0.124 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.997 0.249 1.005 5.266 0.203 0.394 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.264 0.694 5.283 0.213 0.412 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.999 0.341 0.843 4.003 0.289 0.410 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.419 1.382 5.349 0.325 0.433 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.384 0.977 5.454 0.374 0.248 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.997 0.427 1.064 4.038 0.307 0.574 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.284 0.902 4.383 0.246 0.343 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.282 0.886 4.366 0.269 0.191 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.321 1.042 4.782 0.276 0.340 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.280 0.170 3.155 0.258 0.307 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.323 0.927 4.565 0.276 0.369 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.274 0.712 3.116 0.285 0.049 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.386 1.269 5.501 0.373 0.168 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.001 0.378 1.333 6.303 0.341 0.367 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.307 1.096 5.931 0.264 0.314 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.003 0.053 0.495 3.057 0.048 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.285 1.005 5.266 0.258 0.340 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.056 0.491 2.265 0.051 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.997 0.236 0.170 3.074 0.203 0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.267 0.843 4.038 0.234 0.233 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.323 1.333 6.303 0.285 0.403 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.011 0.427 2.300 14.047 0.374 0.574 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.997 0.238 0.828 3.863 0.214 0.364 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.998 0.248 0.376 3.158 0.235 0.324 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.999 0.270 0.731 3.701 0.234 0.307 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.997 0.270 1.198 5.740 0.238 0.218 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.999 0.226 1.569 11.459 0.224 0.048 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.999 0.260 1.128 5.988 0.234 0.211 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.997 0.254 0.789 4.625 0.258 0.068 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.997 0.242 0.652 2.966 0.211 0.341 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.998 0.297 2.315 15.047 0.263 0.105 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.998 0.268 2.341 13.751 0.227 0.136 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.261 1.875 9.555 0.236 0.104 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.998 0.241 1.201 5.515 0.203 0.341 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.997 0.240 0.620 5.887 0.212 0.309 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.996 0.316 0.718 4.101 0.289 0.320 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.994 0.349 0.909 3.799 0.325 0.227 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.999 0.368 0.730 4.501 0.374 0.200 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.993 0.364 0.836 3.751 0.307 0.395 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.999 0.276 0.796 4.013 0.246 0.312 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.997 0.258 0.833 4.133 0.269 0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.995 0.287 0.855 4.200 0.276 0.197 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.997 0.267 0.204 3.472 0.258 0.225 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.995 0.291 0.973 4.825 0.275 0.214 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.999 0.266 0.723 3.159 0.285 0.003 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.995 0.364 1.258 5.110 0.373 0.082 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.995 0.336 0.978 5.597 0.340 0.182 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.997 0.282 1.018 5.677 0.264 0.212 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.002 0.043 0.523 3.255 0.048 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.997 0.268 0.836 4.501 0.258 0.214 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.003 0.043 0.468 1.941 0.051 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.993 0.226 0.204 2.966 0.203 0.003 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.996 0.254 0.730 3.799 0.234 0.105 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.999 0.297 1.198 5.740 0.285 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.368 2.341 15.047 0.374 0.395 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.290 0.131 0.008 0.176 3.064 -0.043 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.043 SERIES 543031 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 543081 AND 543082 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.271 0.390 0.308 0.346 0.284 0.231 0.335 0.357 0.345 SDEV 0.225 0.145 0.168 0.167 0.196 0.169 0.177 0.210 0.203 SERR 0.049 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.813 0.914 0.895 0.914 0.897 0.877 0.926 0.931 0.927 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.975 0.165 0.446 3.374 0.171 0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.513 0.241 -0.023 124 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.65 1.00 1.13 1.78 131.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.130 0.110 0.137 0.001 0.001 0.047 0.004 0.067 -0.001 0.007 PACF 0.130 0.094 0.115 -0.039 -0.020 0.039 0.002 0.064 -0.028 0.000 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.042 0.107 0.083 0.119 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.033 0.039 0.128 -0.036 -0.051 0.059 -0.012 0.093 0.002 0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.033 2 0.032 0.038 3 0.027 0.034 0.126 4 0.033 0.036 0.128 -0.046 5 0.030 0.043 0.130 -0.044 -0.059 6 0.033 0.046 0.123 -0.046 -0.061 0.051 7 0.033 0.046 0.123 -0.046 -0.061 0.051 0.000 8 0.033 0.040 0.129 -0.041 -0.073 0.046 -0.004 0.103 9 0.035 0.040 0.130 -0.043 -0.074 0.049 -0.003 0.104 -0.023 10 0.035 0.041 0.130 -0.043 -0.075 0.049 -0.003 0.104 -0.023 -0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2426.31 2427.99 2429.55 2426.72 2428.09 2429.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2430.27 2432.27 2431.05 2432.89 2434.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 0 0.134 2 543012 0 0.105 3 543021 0 0.095 4 543022 0 0.048 5 543031 0 0.002 6 543032 0 0.045 7 543041 0 0.005 8 543051 0 0.116 9 543052 0 0.011 10 543061 0 0.019 11 543062 0 0.011 12 543071 0 0.119 13 543072 0 0.096 14 543081 0 0.102 15 543082 0 0.052 16 543091 0 0.040 17 543092 0 0.159 18 543101 0 0.100 19 543102 0 0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 0 0.040 21 543112 0 0.052 22 543121 0 0.046 23 543122 0 0.000 24 543131 0 0.007 25 543132 0 0.033 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.058 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.048 MEDIAN 0 0.046 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.011 UPPER HINGE 0 0.100 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.159 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.238 0.828 3.863 0.213 0.364 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.248 0.376 3.158 0.234 0.324 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.270 0.731 3.701 0.233 0.307 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.270 1.198 5.740 0.238 0.218 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.226 1.569 11.459 0.224 0.048 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.260 1.128 5.988 0.234 0.211 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.254 0.789 4.625 0.257 0.068 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.242 0.652 2.966 0.210 0.341 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.297 2.315 15.047 0.262 0.105 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.268 2.341 13.751 0.227 0.136 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.261 1.875 9.555 0.236 0.104 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.241 1.201 5.515 0.203 0.341 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.240 0.620 5.887 0.212 0.309 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.316 0.718 4.101 0.288 0.320 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.349 0.909 3.799 0.323 0.227 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.368 0.730 4.501 0.373 0.200 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.364 0.836 3.751 0.305 0.395 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.276 0.796 4.013 0.246 0.312 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.258 0.833 4.133 0.268 0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.287 0.855 4.200 0.275 0.197 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.267 0.204 3.472 0.257 0.225 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.291 0.973 4.825 0.274 0.214 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.266 0.723 3.159 0.285 0.003 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.364 1.258 5.110 0.371 0.082 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.336 0.978 5.597 0.338 0.182 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.282 1.018 5.677 0.263 0.212 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.043 0.523 3.255 0.048 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.268 0.836 4.501 0.257 0.214 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.043 0.468 1.941 0.051 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.226 0.204 2.966 0.203 0.003 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.254 0.730 3.799 0.233 0.105 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.297 1.198 5.740 0.285 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.368 2.341 15.047 0.373 0.395 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.290 0.131 0.008 0.176 3.064 -0.043 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.043 SERIES 543031 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 543081 AND 543082 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.271 0.390 0.308 0.346 0.284 0.231 0.335 0.357 0.345 SDEV 0.225 0.145 0.168 0.167 0.196 0.169 0.177 0.210 0.203 SERR 0.049 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.813 0.914 0.895 0.914 0.897 0.877 0.926 0.931 0.927 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.978 0.165 0.448 3.373 0.171 0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.515 0.242 -0.024 124 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.64 1.00 1.13 1.77 126.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.130 0.109 0.137 0.001 0.000 0.047 0.004 0.068 -0.001 0.008 PACF 0.130 0.094 0.115 -0.039 -0.020 0.039 0.001 0.065 -0.028 0.000 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.042 0.107 0.083 0.119 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.978 0.165 0.448 3.373 0.171 0.131 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.130 0.109 0.137 0.001 0.000 0.047 0.004 0.068 -0.001 0.008 PACF 0.130 0.094 0.115 -0.039 -0.020 0.039 0.001 0.065 -0.028 0.000 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.042 0.107 0.083 0.119 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES