RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk WIDTH_RING PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.560 0.198 0.223 2.717 0.221 0.704 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.507 0.193 0.643 3.545 0.208 0.765 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.519 0.303 0.915 3.446 0.299 0.783 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.443 0.270 1.141 3.698 0.259 0.879 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.519 0.172 0.992 5.212 0.245 0.552 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.576 0.198 0.922 4.004 0.247 0.590 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.683 0.425 0.968 3.300 0.256 0.876 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.571 0.377 1.424 5.134 0.253 0.872 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.467 0.248 1.345 5.510 0.262 0.800 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.523 0.219 0.176 2.183 0.284 0.681 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.471 0.163 0.298 3.360 0.277 0.550 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.586 0.355 2.821 15.308 0.214 0.857 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.679 0.376 1.578 9.428 0.243 0.752 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.557 0.246 0.587 3.220 0.244 0.777 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.532 0.348 1.341 4.620 0.294 0.859 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.492 0.270 1.333 5.112 0.293 0.777 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.489 0.342 3.388 20.436 0.294 0.784 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.651 0.270 0.463 3.017 0.201 0.820 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.807 0.348 0.144 2.687 0.200 0.820 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.045 0.478 0.619 2.819 0.231 0.811 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.029 0.432 0.104 2.205 0.212 0.833 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.988 0.403 0.195 2.478 0.210 0.815 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.010 0.534 1.163 3.816 0.251 0.815 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.457 0.542 0.585 2.842 0.172 0.830 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.571 0.646 0.159 1.981 0.180 0.836 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.709 0.334 0.941 4.883 0.242 0.777 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.307 0.126 0.802 4.266 0.037 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 0.571 0.342 0.915 3.446 0.245 0.811 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.288 0.158 1.034 2.293 0.050 0.068 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.443 0.163 0.104 1.981 0.172 0.550 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.519 0.246 0.298 2.819 0.212 0.765 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.807 0.403 1.333 5.112 0.262 0.833 MAXIMUM VALUE 299 1.571 0.646 3.388 20.436 0.299 0.879 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.312 0.312 0.018 -0.610 2.756 -0.613 0.871 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.613 SERIES 543022 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.871 SERIES 543071 AND 543072 295 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.408 0.440 0.531 0.632 0.537 0.304 0.386 0.454 0.568 SDEV 0.254 0.237 0.293 0.180 0.224 0.271 0.272 0.242 0.260 SERR 0.055 0.027 0.025 0.014 0.016 0.017 0.017 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.890 0.929 0.956 0.972 0.962 0.912 0.940 0.953 0.969 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.649 0.337 3.504 19.569 0.198 0.845 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.190 0.073 0.229 126 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.38 1.01 1.15 2.53 101.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.842 0.767 0.672 0.546 0.456 0.401 0.356 0.346 0.316 0.324 PACF 0.842 0.196 -0.046 -0.181 -0.008 0.123 0.075 0.091 -0.069 0.081 95% C.L. 0.115 0.180 0.219 0.245 0.261 0.271 0.279 0.285 0.290 0.295 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.802 0.660 0.256 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 1 0.28632909 0.06915324 0.00000000 0.54291058 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096892 0.39569178 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216072 0.25247687 4 543022 1 0.80609852 0.02758099 0.00000000 0.34169775 5 543031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051019 0.58414334 6 543032 1 0.28578061 0.03661225 0.00000000 0.54602134 7 543041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00357004 0.22023799 8 543051 1 1.39445603 0.05458124 0.00000000 0.48303461 9 543052 1 0.72463983 0.01314939 0.00000000 0.27517399 10 543061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170417 0.30604151 11 543062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069151 0.39357221 12 543071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080879 0.46533623 13 543072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00181180 0.41093877 14 543081 1 0.73595321 0.03876397 0.00000000 0.48647383 15 543082 1 1.29441774 0.02391717 0.00000000 0.32307109 16 543091 1 0.95463175 0.02969245 0.00000000 0.38164794 17 543092 1 1.38577366 0.03317895 0.00000000 0.34913537 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00213876 0.42433447 19 543102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00321018 0.45449507 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00785619 1.63444948 21 543112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00969219 0.46205845 22 543121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00606081 1.46936631 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00831120 1.67489612 24 543131 1 2.05394411 0.01305676 0.00000000 0.42141178 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01483950 2.44689798 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.349 0.321 2.931 0.220 0.691 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.002 0.374 0.723 3.248 0.207 0.769 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.028 0.606 1.645 7.033 0.303 0.790 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.998 0.532 1.580 5.403 0.259 0.821 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.323 1.042 5.775 0.244 0.523 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.333 1.142 5.228 0.246 0.566 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.009 0.480 0.826 3.446 0.255 0.772 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.602 1.706 6.782 0.255 0.830 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.001 0.355 0.964 4.913 0.262 0.562 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.995 0.351 0.388 3.301 0.281 0.573 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.999 0.337 0.432 3.906 0.276 0.520 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.004 0.708 4.257 25.142 0.213 0.864 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.010 0.657 4.737 41.604 0.243 0.671 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.389 0.502 3.471 0.245 0.722 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.408 0.574 3.722 0.296 0.627 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.411 0.973 4.581 0.295 0.634 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.998 0.346 0.385 2.905 0.296 0.500 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.999 0.402 1.277 5.635 0.200 0.756 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.986 0.359 0.499 3.063 0.201 0.766 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.991 0.280 0.208 2.712 0.230 0.518 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.994 0.278 -0.092 3.295 0.210 0.546 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.992 0.295 0.193 2.984 0.209 0.631 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.017 0.362 0.778 3.586 0.250 0.602 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.205 -0.483 3.189 0.170 0.502 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.993 0.240 -0.198 2.688 0.178 0.550 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.001 0.399 0.975 6.422 0.242 0.652 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.008 0.129 1.197 8.545 0.037 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.359 0.723 3.586 0.245 0.631 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.003 0.077 0.757 2.214 0.052 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.986 0.205 -0.483 2.688 0.170 0.500 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.998 0.333 0.385 3.189 0.210 0.550 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.001 0.411 1.142 5.403 0.262 0.766 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.028 0.708 4.737 41.604 0.303 0.864 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.995 0.330 0.475 3.618 0.220 0.656 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.993 0.314 0.878 4.653 0.206 0.677 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.986 0.411 1.079 4.822 0.303 0.576 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.993 0.351 0.672 3.654 0.260 0.547 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.999 0.320 1.038 5.903 0.244 0.516 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.998 0.319 0.988 4.647 0.247 0.535 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.972 0.351 0.962 4.967 0.255 0.626 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.969 0.465 1.228 4.956 0.255 0.753 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.990 0.304 0.782 5.251 0.261 0.439 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.998 0.331 0.445 3.794 0.281 0.506 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.997 0.290 0.262 4.153 0.276 0.348 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.986 0.373 0.885 5.683 0.212 0.733 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.978 0.379 1.559 10.992 0.242 0.607 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.989 0.327 0.331 3.224 0.245 0.601 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.992 0.371 0.468 3.379 0.296 0.563 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.992 0.369 0.780 4.195 0.295 0.546 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.997 0.333 0.350 2.945 0.296 0.454 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.990 0.316 0.440 3.767 0.200 0.673 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.997 0.260 0.682 4.152 0.201 0.554 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.994 0.237 -0.001 2.461 0.229 0.336 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.994 0.240 -0.314 3.262 0.209 0.418 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.996 0.258 0.007 2.879 0.209 0.512 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.994 0.298 0.455 3.781 0.249 0.474 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.999 0.200 -0.467 3.171 0.170 0.474 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.994 0.193 -0.142 3.336 0.178 0.336 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.991 0.318 0.554 4.306 0.242 0.538 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.008 0.063 0.491 1.656 0.038 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 0.994 0.320 0.475 3.794 0.245 0.546 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.007 0.062 0.554 1.486 0.052 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.969 0.193 -0.467 2.461 0.170 0.336 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.990 0.290 0.331 3.336 0.209 0.474 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.997 0.351 0.885 4.822 0.261 0.607 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 0.999 0.465 1.559 10.992 0.303 0.753 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.430 0.135 0.008 0.165 2.986 0.073 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.073 SERIES 543062 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 543081 AND 543082 259 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.463 0.478 0.555 0.657 0.574 0.328 0.387 0.513 0.570 SDEV 0.218 0.205 0.191 0.125 0.174 0.207 0.220 0.173 0.183 SERR 0.048 0.023 0.016 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.910 0.938 0.960 0.975 0.967 0.921 0.940 0.963 0.970 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.998 0.278 1.055 5.752 0.218 0.547 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.446 0.169 0.075 104 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.50 1.01 1.06 1.56 15.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.546 0.450 0.376 0.178 0.094 0.031 0.022 -0.010 -0.071 -0.018 PACF 0.546 0.218 0.097 -0.162 -0.066 -0.024 0.069 -0.009 -0.094 0.048 95% C.L. 0.115 0.146 0.163 0.175 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.377 0.416 0.205 0.189 -0.148 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.413 0.358 0.333 0.123 0.046 0.019 0.041 -0.032 -0.105 -0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.413 2 0.320 0.226 3 0.284 0.175 0.159 4 0.304 0.198 0.196 -0.130 5 0.292 0.217 0.215 -0.100 -0.098 6 0.290 0.215 0.220 -0.095 -0.092 -0.021 7 0.292 0.223 0.229 -0.116 -0.112 -0.049 0.096 8 0.295 0.222 0.224 -0.121 -0.103 -0.040 0.107 -0.039 9 0.290 0.236 0.219 -0.135 -0.119 -0.010 0.137 0.000 -0.134 10 0.294 0.236 0.214 -0.134 -0.115 -0.006 0.130 -0.007 -0.143 0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2620.50 2566.47 2552.78 2547.11 2544.02 2543.14 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2545.00 2544.25 2545.79 2542.36 2544.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.292 0.217 0.215 -0.100 -0.098 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.292 0.302 0.366 0.135 0.057 0.066 -0.006 -0.024 -0.013 -.0224 -0.021 -0.011 -0.009 -0.006 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 5 0.472 0.523 0.164 0.157 -0.144 0.032 2 543012 5 0.483 0.573 0.099 0.144 -0.113 0.042 3 543021 5 0.385 0.420 0.213 0.149 -0.029 -0.097 4 543022 5 0.378 0.358 0.259 0.107 -0.076 0.082 5 543031 5 0.331 0.378 0.221 0.173 -0.123 -0.027 6 543032 5 0.359 0.401 0.195 0.219 -0.140 -0.050 7 543041 5 0.432 0.495 0.086 0.164 -0.075 0.086 8 543051 5 0.629 0.445 0.345 0.079 -0.006 -0.010 9 543052 5 0.313 0.246 0.197 0.292 0.006 -0.052 10 543061 5 0.312 0.418 0.148 0.172 -0.120 -0.089 11 543062 5 0.171 0.300 0.096 0.175 -0.089 -0.065 12 543071 5 0.593 0.550 0.193 0.099 0.032 -0.057 13 543072 5 0.476 0.542 0.089 0.204 -0.122 0.037 14 543081 5 0.423 0.434 0.164 0.206 -0.086 0.016 15 543082 5 0.414 0.337 0.202 0.247 -0.033 0.008 16 543091 5 0.340 0.454 0.133 0.174 -0.145 -0.004 17 543092 5 0.261 0.363 0.196 0.125 -0.138 -0.009 18 543101 5 0.507 0.587 0.094 0.172 -0.077 -0.046 19 543102 5 0.346 0.515 0.108 0.035 -0.066 -0.079 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 5 0.171 0.262 0.110 0.206 -0.038 -0.017 21 543112 5 0.234 0.409 0.172 -0.196 0.008 -0.044 22 543121 5 0.294 0.453 0.075 0.092 -0.044 0.061 23 543122 5 0.238 0.437 0.086 0.004 -0.040 0.064 24 543131 5 0.289 0.409 0.061 0.229 -0.046 -0.127 25 543132 5 0.154 0.286 0.068 0.145 0.024 -0.052 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.360 0.424 0.151 0.143 -0.067 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.095 0.069 0.096 0.055 0.058 MEDIAN 5 0.346 0.420 0.148 0.164 -0.075 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.131 0.102 0.097 0.087 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.154 0.246 0.061 -0.196 -0.145 -0.127 LOWER HINGE 5 0.289 0.363 0.094 0.107 -0.120 -0.052 UPPER HINGE 5 0.432 0.495 0.196 0.204 -0.033 0.032 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.629 0.587 0.345 0.292 0.032 0.086 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.240 0.592 4.602 0.262 0.006 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.226 0.338 3.838 0.255 0.003 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.322 0.493 3.834 0.351 -0.005 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.277 0.472 4.359 0.304 -0.004 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.261 0.682 5.215 0.282 0.001 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.256 0.249 3.719 0.288 0.000 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.265 0.633 5.923 0.305 -0.001 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.001 0.279 0.260 5.798 0.297 0.012 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.252 0.321 7.591 0.286 -0.001 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.274 -0.028 3.342 0.329 -0.009 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.265 0.189 4.490 0.304 0.006 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.235 -0.023 4.031 0.261 -0.015 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.265 0.734 6.303 0.289 -0.061 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.249 0.103 4.068 0.285 -0.002 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.283 0.155 3.411 0.328 0.000 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.300 0.263 3.625 0.341 0.001 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.285 0.004 3.080 0.339 -0.004 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.219 0.164 3.459 0.249 -0.024 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.209 0.235 3.106 0.243 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.216 -0.111 2.566 0.250 0.003 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.210 -0.230 3.249 0.239 -0.010 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.216 -0.272 3.059 0.252 -0.003 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.260 0.297 3.457 0.298 -0.003 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.170 -0.367 3.265 0.197 -0.014 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.179 -0.072 3.483 0.198 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.248 0.203 4.115 0.281 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.037 0.298 1.201 0.041 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.256 0.235 3.719 0.286 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.055 0.361 1.148 0.053 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.170 -0.367 2.566 0.197 -0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.219 -0.023 3.342 0.252 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.274 0.338 4.490 0.304 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.001 0.322 0.734 7.591 0.351 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.542 0.088 0.005 0.038 2.930 0.322 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.322 SERIES 543062 AND 543112 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 543131 AND 543132 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.532 0.555 0.547 0.658 0.629 0.483 0.516 0.596 0.630 SDEV 0.156 0.137 0.131 0.084 0.123 0.145 0.124 0.111 0.119 SERR 0.034 0.015 0.011 0.006 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.930 0.954 0.958 0.975 0.974 0.957 0.964 0.973 0.976 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.994 0.195 -0.240 3.780 0.233 -0.052 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.265 0.065 0.093 103 197 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.55 1.02 1.10 1.65 43.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.052 0.024 0.042 -0.080 -0.116 -0.072 0.037 0.016 -0.109 0.044 PACF -0.052 0.022 0.045 -0.076 -0.127 -0.085 0.042 0.031 -0.125 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.001 0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.077 0.047 0.009 -0.141 0.016 PACF -0.012 -0.001 0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.077 0.046 0.010 -0.141 0.010 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.007 -0.012 -0.001 0.011 -0.014 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.994 0.222 0.440 3.852 0.199 0.409 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.408 0.353 0.314 0.098 0.009 -0.068 -0.058 -0.099 -0.185 -0.096 PACF 0.408 0.223 0.140 -0.144 -0.119 -0.094 0.047 -0.013 -0.133 0.017 95% C.L. 0.115 0.133 0.145 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.263 0.278 0.214 0.233 -0.079 -0.085 -0.101 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES