RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED011X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED011X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 543 1 Gallejour, GlommerstŠrk DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 543 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 480 6510-1928 1679 1978 - 543 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 543021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 543022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1929 1929 / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 543051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 543061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 543071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 543081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 543082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 543091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 543092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 543102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1790 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 0.737 0.075 0.030 2.820 0.085 0.450 2 543012 1750 1978 229 0.761 0.061 0.062 3.084 0.079 0.227 3 543021 1736 1978 243 0.835 0.078 -0.098 3.358 0.092 0.254 4 543022 1686 1978 293 0.809 0.085 -0.423 2.729 0.096 0.383 5 543031 1725 1978 254 0.793 0.080 -0.536 3.215 0.083 0.521 6 543032 1727 1978 252 0.752 0.073 -0.557 3.681 0.082 0.447 7 543041 1721 1978 258 0.790 0.083 -0.376 2.904 0.114 0.086 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.785 0.088 -0.112 2.301 0.078 0.613 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.728 0.121 -0.462 5.162 0.089 0.751 10 543061 1729 1978 250 0.838 0.086 -0.318 3.011 0.071 0.624 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.747 0.087 0.342 2.586 0.082 0.599 12 543071 1679 1978 300 0.777 0.077 -0.212 3.152 0.082 0.466 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.759 0.103 -0.125 3.086 0.083 0.713 14 543081 1711 1978 268 0.731 0.110 0.370 2.552 0.116 0.581 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.713 0.097 -0.075 2.329 0.097 0.604 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.659 0.094 0.309 2.824 0.126 0.374 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.641 0.089 -0.231 2.642 0.111 0.511 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.757 0.093 -0.198 2.588 0.100 0.491 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.770 0.090 -0.316 3.077 0.104 0.381 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 0.749 0.103 -0.205 2.150 0.091 0.628 21 543112 1789 1904 116 0.769 0.092 0.003 3.177 0.114 0.316 22 543121 1821 1978 158 0.810 0.110 -0.186 2.520 0.106 0.543 23 543122 1820 1978 159 0.811 0.106 -0.248 2.659 0.125 0.319 24 543131 1860 1978 119 0.765 0.083 -0.604 3.026 0.135 -0.092 25 543132 1862 1978 117 0.769 0.092 -0.451 3.098 0.129 0.089 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1679 TO 1978 300 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 0.762 0.090 -0.185 2.949 0.099 0.435 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.046 0.013 0.268 0.583 0.018 0.206 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 245 0.765 0.089 -0.205 2.904 0.096 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.044 0.014 0.301 0.509 0.031 0.279 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.641 0.061 -0.604 2.150 0.071 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.747 0.083 -0.376 2.588 0.083 0.319 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 0.790 0.097 -0.075 3.098 0.114 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 299 0.838 0.121 0.370 5.162 0.135 0.751 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.370 0.188 0.011 -0.456 3.642 -0.264 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 543052 AND 543072 278 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 543121 AND 543122 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.312 0.366 0.559 0.482 0.443 0.415 0.437 0.466 0.434 SDEV 0.262 0.230 0.155 0.173 0.153 0.189 0.195 0.185 0.197 SERR 0.057 0.026 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.841 0.905 0.960 0.949 0.946 0.944 0.951 0.955 0.948 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.761 0.055 -0.269 3.275 0.071 0.247 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.075 -0.032 0.114 56 244 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.28 1.00 1.05 1.32 110.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 250. 67. 116. 211. 278. 300. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.247 0.184 0.252 0.191 0.169 0.075 0.140 0.070 0.002 0.080 PACF 0.247 0.131 0.195 0.089 0.069 -0.046 0.065 -0.030 -0.058 0.045 95% C.L. 0.115 0.122 0.126 0.132 0.136 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.135 0.156 0.070 0.176 0.091 0.086 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 1 0.11511696 0.02661815 0.00000000 0.71910667 2 543012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024973 0.78941739 3 543021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005557 0.82617086 4 543022 1 0.04988353 0.01303614 0.00000000 0.79470271 5 543031 1 0.09909914 0.05217353 0.00000000 0.78539270 6 543032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032959 0.79351860 7 543041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021910 0.81883901 8 543051 1 0.05581972 0.01026891 0.00000000 0.76639974 9 543052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112958 0.88588554 10 543061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053815 0.76863295 11 543062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052261 0.68830580 12 543071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005979 0.76802218 13 543072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034336 0.70850503 14 543081 1 0.32296115 0.01880939 0.00000000 0.66693336 15 543082 1 0.30686721 0.00404325 0.00000000 0.52251136 16 543091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007662 0.66946787 17 543092 1 0.09271990 0.01973384 0.00000000 0.62460709 18 543101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023183 0.78130400 19 543102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012242 0.78264534 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180707 0.88485944 21 543112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047891 0.74146628 22 543121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158518 0.93570507 23 543122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127281 0.91295677 24 543131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020894 0.77732658 25 543132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056063 0.80256408 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.095 0.158 3.156 0.084 0.368 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.077 0.162 3.024 0.078 0.166 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.096 -0.231 3.537 0.095 0.239 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.106 -0.505 2.953 0.096 0.380 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.099 -0.512 3.326 0.083 0.492 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.092 -0.574 3.388 0.081 0.386 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.103 -0.366 2.857 0.114 0.045 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.112 -0.140 2.379 0.079 0.611 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.108 -2.004 18.976 0.089 0.399 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.092 -0.340 2.956 0.070 0.532 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.107 0.381 2.774 0.082 0.529 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.100 -0.169 3.079 0.082 0.470 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.131 0.004 3.252 0.082 0.678 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.108 -0.141 3.138 0.117 0.114 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.112 -0.076 2.789 0.100 0.368 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.145 0.233 3.132 0.127 0.398 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.138 -0.190 2.903 0.112 0.501 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.121 -0.102 2.712 0.099 0.480 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.119 -0.285 3.164 0.106 0.378 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.090 -0.401 3.119 0.090 0.142 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.117 -0.011 3.582 0.113 0.293 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.103 -0.541 3.343 0.105 0.160 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.110 -0.104 3.102 0.124 0.041 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.108 -0.616 3.082 0.133 -0.101 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.117 -0.498 3.382 0.128 0.053 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.108 -0.275 3.724 0.099 0.325 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.015 0.448 3.189 0.018 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.108 -0.190 3.119 0.096 0.378 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.018 0.422 0.373 0.030 0.321 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.077 -2.004 2.379 0.070 -0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.099 -0.498 2.953 0.082 0.160 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.117 -0.076 3.326 0.113 0.480 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.145 0.381 18.976 0.133 0.678 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 543011 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 543012 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 543021 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 543022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 543031 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 543032 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 543041 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 543051 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 543052 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 543061 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 543062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 543071 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 543072 -67 197 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 543081 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 543082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 543091 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 543092 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 543101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 543102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 543111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 543112 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 543121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 543122 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 543131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 543132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.089 0.036 3.072 0.084 0.280 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.076 0.175 3.023 0.078 0.137 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.093 -0.228 3.544 0.095 0.184 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.098 -0.467 3.135 0.096 0.271 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.096 -0.513 3.212 0.083 0.468 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.087 -0.478 3.099 0.081 0.314 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.099 -0.485 3.116 0.113 -0.014 8 543051 1690 1978 289 0.999 0.103 -0.168 2.571 0.079 0.539 9 543052 1701 1978 278 0.999 0.100 -2.539 25.429 0.089 0.294 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.086 -0.258 3.201 0.070 0.471 11 543062 1757 1978 222 0.999 0.099 0.327 2.878 0.082 0.456 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.097 -0.082 3.118 0.082 0.450 13 543072 1684 1978 295 0.999 0.115 -0.128 3.327 0.082 0.592 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.104 -0.137 3.254 0.117 0.039 15 543082 1720 1978 259 0.999 0.105 -0.095 2.958 0.100 0.288 16 543091 1689 1978 290 0.999 0.135 0.182 3.318 0.127 0.315 17 543092 1682 1978 297 0.999 0.131 -0.216 2.897 0.112 0.450 18 543101 1752 1962 211 0.999 0.098 -0.227 2.488 0.099 0.227 19 543102 1762 1978 217 0.999 0.103 -0.167 3.340 0.106 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.088 -0.357 3.273 0.090 0.086 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.112 -0.070 3.367 0.113 0.220 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.099 -0.490 3.383 0.105 0.095 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.108 -0.105 3.189 0.124 0.012 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.107 -0.628 3.054 0.133 -0.133 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.112 -0.611 3.549 0.128 -0.029 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.102 -0.309 4.032 0.099 0.248 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.013 0.526 4.465 0.018 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.099 -0.216 3.189 0.096 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.010 0.383 0.273 0.030 0.355 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.999 0.076 -2.539 2.488 0.070 -0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 0.999 0.096 -0.478 3.054 0.082 0.095 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.107 -0.095 3.327 0.113 0.450 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.135 0.327 25.429 0.133 0.592 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.426 0.138 0.008 -0.085 2.908 0.020 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.020 SERIES 543052 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 543131 AND 543132 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.348 0.408 0.556 0.516 0.448 0.427 0.462 0.494 0.440 SDEV 0.251 0.207 0.153 0.146 0.149 0.183 0.180 0.170 0.185 SERR 0.055 0.023 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.862 0.919 0.960 0.956 0.947 0.947 0.955 0.960 0.950 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 0.999 0.068 -0.261 3.643 0.074 0.126 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.009 0.003 0.074 72 228 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.37 1.00 1.06 1.43 7.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.125 0.069 0.144 0.093 0.071 -0.039 0.037 -0.041 -0.099 -0.016 PACF 0.125 0.054 0.131 0.060 0.042 -0.080 0.025 -0.066 -0.087 0.006 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.118 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 0.126 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.110 0.067 0.172 0.103 0.067 -0.042 0.078 -0.021 -0.147 -0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.110 2 0.104 0.056 3 0.095 0.039 0.161 4 0.084 0.036 0.155 0.070 5 0.081 0.031 0.154 0.067 0.035 6 0.085 0.037 0.167 0.069 0.042 -0.090 7 0.090 0.034 0.163 0.059 0.040 -0.095 0.060 8 0.093 0.029 0.165 0.062 0.049 -0.093 0.065 -0.054 9 0.086 0.038 0.152 0.069 0.058 -0.070 0.069 -0.041 -0.141 10 0.086 0.039 0.152 0.070 0.058 -0.070 0.068 -0.041 -0.141 0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1911.03 1909.36 1910.42 1904.50 1905.05 1906.68 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1906.25 1907.16 1908.27 1904.28 1906.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.21 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.110 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 543011 1 0.092 0.280 2 543012 1 0.022 0.138 3 543021 1 0.036 0.185 4 543022 1 0.096 0.274 5 543031 1 0.244 0.470 6 543032 1 0.104 0.316 7 543041 1 0.004 -0.014 8 543051 1 0.325 0.540 9 543052 1 0.115 0.294 10 543061 1 0.240 0.475 11 543062 1 0.235 0.456 12 543071 1 0.232 0.452 13 543072 1 0.367 0.597 14 543081 1 0.006 0.039 15 543082 1 0.103 0.288 16 543091 1 0.110 0.316 17 543092 1 0.240 0.452 18 543101 1 0.064 0.229 19 543102 1 0.049 0.195 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 543111 1 0.008 0.087 21 543112 1 0.052 0.222 22 543121 1 0.009 0.096 23 543122 1 0.000 0.012 24 543131 1 0.018 -0.134 25 543132 1 0.005 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.111 0.250 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.194 MEDIAN 1 0.092 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.214 0.356 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.134 LOWER HINGE 1 0.018 0.096 UPPER HINGE 1 0.232 0.452 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.367 0.597 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 543011 1745 1978 234 1.000 0.085 -0.009 3.325 0.096 -0.033 2 543012 1750 1978 229 1.000 0.075 0.159 2.991 0.084 -0.008 3 543021 1736 1978 243 1.000 0.092 -0.223 3.680 0.104 -0.006 4 543022 1686 1978 293 1.000 0.094 -0.235 2.901 0.111 -0.043 5 543031 1725 1978 254 1.000 0.085 -0.461 3.040 0.102 -0.081 6 543032 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.083 -0.422 3.263 0.094 -0.020 7 543041 1721 1978 258 1.000 0.099 -0.482 3.112 0.113 -0.001 8 543051 1690 1978 289 1.000 0.087 -0.069 3.057 0.103 -0.117 9 543052 1701 1978 278 1.000 0.095 -2.431 24.054 0.102 -0.051 10 543061 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.076 -0.405 3.619 0.088 -0.067 11 543062 1757 1978 222 1.000 0.088 0.041 3.030 0.103 -0.084 12 543071 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.087 -0.081 3.127 0.102 -0.083 13 543072 1684 1978 295 1.000 0.092 -0.138 3.688 0.106 -0.074 14 543081 1711 1978 268 1.000 0.104 -0.142 3.222 0.120 -0.003 15 543082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.101 -0.052 3.133 0.116 -0.043 16 543091 1689 1978 290 1.000 0.128 0.203 3.213 0.150 -0.033 17 543092 1682 1978 297 1.000 0.117 -0.103 2.778 0.145 -0.094 18 543101 1752 1962 211 1.000 0.095 -0.200 2.502 0.112 -0.024 19 543102 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.101 -0.154 3.445 0.117 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 543111 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.087 -0.359 3.411 0.094 0.001 21 543112 1789 1904 116 1.000 0.109 -0.258 3.396 0.124 0.010 22 543121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.099 -0.457 3.259 0.110 0.000 23 543122 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.108 -0.108 3.174 0.125 0.000 24 543131 1860 1978 119 1.000 0.106 -0.510 2.954 0.124 0.001 25 543132 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.112 -0.583 3.511 0.126 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 230 1.000 0.096 -0.299 4.035 0.111 -0.035 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.013 0.491 4.180 0.016 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.095 -0.200 3.213 0.110 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.017 0.342 0.371 0.017 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.075 -2.431 2.502 0.084 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 211 1.000 0.087 -0.422 3.040 0.102 -0.067 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 278 1.000 0.104 -0.081 3.411 0.120 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 1.000 0.128 0.203 24.054 0.150 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.465 0.128 0.007 -0.214 3.008 0.045 0.787 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.045 SERIES 543052 AND 543132 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.787 SERIES 543131 AND 543132 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 78. 136. 171. 190. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.389 0.450 0.577 0.533 0.466 0.467 0.523 0.535 0.468 SDEV 0.202 0.179 0.131 0.128 0.150 0.177 0.160 0.148 0.168 SERR 0.044 0.020 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.882 0.931 0.963 0.958 0.950 0.954 0.964 0.966 0.955 NSS 11.7 16.6 19.1 20.2 21.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.067 -0.305 3.733 0.082 -0.165 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.010 0.003 0.065 71 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.50 1.00 1.05 1.55 35.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.164 -0.026 0.092 0.038 0.053 -0.089 0.069 -0.034 -0.071 0.037 PACF -0.164 -0.055 0.081 0.069 0.080 -0.075 0.035 -0.039 -0.075 0.007 95% C.L. 0.115 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.030 -0.165 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.040 0.100 0.065 0.047 -0.074 0.052 -0.037 -0.075 0.015 PACF -0.009 -0.040 0.099 0.066 0.057 -0.079 0.042 -0.058 -0.064 0.007 95% C.L. 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1679 1978 300 1.000 0.066 -0.245 3.817 0.072 0.098 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.098 -0.018 0.104 0.080 0.047 -0.063 0.039 -0.041 -0.078 -0.003 PACF 0.098 -0.028 0.110 0.059 0.041 -0.081 0.043 -0.069 -0.057 0.006 95% C.L. 0.115 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 0.098 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES