RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED013N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED013N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 527 1 Duvberg DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 527 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 550 6204-1420 1846 1978 - 527 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 527022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 527031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 527042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 527052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1875 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 527061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 527072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 527092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 527101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1909 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 527112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 527132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 0.260 0.021 0.483 3.562 0.069 0.391 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.249 0.025 0.086 3.019 0.080 0.393 3 527021 1917 1978 62 0.245 0.026 0.705 3.926 0.082 0.549 4 527022 1911 1978 68 0.201 0.021 0.539 2.775 0.087 0.416 5 527031 1873 1978 106 0.290 0.033 0.974 4.494 0.072 0.657 6 527032 1873 1978 106 0.283 0.027 0.055 2.833 0.072 0.555 7 527041 1878 1978 101 0.233 0.022 0.152 4.747 0.079 0.429 8 527042 1867 1978 112 0.236 0.023 0.490 3.078 0.092 0.266 9 527051 1870 1978 109 0.228 0.020 0.322 2.627 0.072 0.533 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.238 0.025 -0.310 2.898 0.074 0.632 11 527061 1846 1978 133 0.247 0.018 0.680 4.133 0.061 0.382 12 527062 1858 1978 121 0.249 0.021 0.194 2.976 0.056 0.635 13 527071 1863 1978 116 0.233 0.024 0.566 3.529 0.077 0.464 14 527072 1869 1978 110 0.229 0.031 0.584 2.613 0.077 0.737 15 527081 1880 1978 99 0.229 0.019 0.276 2.627 0.072 0.369 16 527082 1862 1978 117 0.222 0.027 0.554 3.112 0.072 0.686 17 527091 1867 1978 112 0.262 0.020 -0.222 2.881 0.066 0.403 18 527092 1863 1978 116 0.248 0.024 0.374 2.823 0.065 0.570 19 527101 1863 1978 116 0.218 0.016 0.803 4.722 0.064 0.302 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 0.244 0.021 0.240 2.661 0.068 0.464 21 527111 1873 1978 106 0.246 0.023 0.735 4.551 0.069 0.500 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.238 0.031 0.640 3.990 0.071 0.749 23 527121 1898 1978 81 0.254 0.026 0.409 2.730 0.075 0.564 24 527122 1901 1978 78 0.241 0.037 -3.162 22.667 0.110 0.323 25 527131 1882 1978 97 0.217 0.019 -0.074 3.463 0.062 0.577 26 527132 1887 1978 92 0.213 0.015 0.096 3.326 0.058 0.420 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1846 TO 1978 133 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 101 0.240 0.024 0.238 4.106 0.073 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.020 0.005 0.763 3.849 0.011 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 0.240 0.023 0.391 3.095 0.072 0.482 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.020 0.006 0.488 1.167 0.011 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.201 0.015 -3.162 2.613 0.056 0.266 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.229 0.020 0.096 2.823 0.066 0.393 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 111 0.249 0.026 0.584 3.990 0.077 0.577 MAXIMUM VALUE 126 0.290 0.037 0.974 22.667 0.110 0.749 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.338 0.241 0.013 -0.688 3.203 -0.412 0.823 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.412 SERIES 527052 AND 527112 103 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.823 SERIES 527031 AND 527032 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.296 0.276 0.446 SDEV 0.195 0.285 0.222 SERR 0.018 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.906 0.906 0.954 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.240 0.013 0.421 3.266 0.053 0.251 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.008 0.006 0.023 30 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.38 1.00 1.07 1.45 4.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 17. 62. 99. 116. 133. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.249 0.260 0.292 0.144 0.239 0.177 0.219 0.293 0.198 0.079 PACF 0.249 0.211 0.210 0.004 0.131 0.044 0.115 0.163 0.047 -0.129 95% C.L. 0.173 0.184 0.195 0.207 0.210 0.218 0.223 0.229 0.240 0.245 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.162 0.146 0.175 0.238 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023749 0.24753174 2 527012 1 0.01082030 0.01878907 0.00000000 0.24485660 3 527021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097807 0.21435219 4 527022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042788 0.18464644 5 527031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043308 0.26639006 6 527032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012661 0.27577358 7 527041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036529 0.21443960 8 527042 1 0.03973040 0.10729596 0.00000000 0.23285432 9 527051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041970 0.20443934 10 527052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043321 0.21181265 11 527061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012165 0.23823760 12 527062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041221 0.22345041 13 527071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025829 0.21773463 14 527072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072674 0.18628587 15 527081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002746 0.22741497 16 527082 1 0.07351132 0.01806733 0.00000000 0.19200730 17 527091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015888 0.25280887 18 527092 1 0.06056476 0.02321190 0.00000000 0.22609513 19 527101 1 0.02699398 0.16865350 0.00000000 0.21797487 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035782 0.22588624 21 527111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002998 0.24792452 22 527112 1 0.08053152 0.02180503 0.00000000 0.20424812 23 527121 1 0.04977110 0.09838008 0.00000000 0.24825603 24 527122 1 0.04534211 0.08513087 0.00000000 0.23462059 25 527131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005628 0.21997422 26 527132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007646 0.21013476 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.074 0.469 3.638 0.069 0.311 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.098 0.113 2.992 0.079 0.381 3 527021 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.081 0.525 3.348 0.081 0.184 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.000 0.093 0.328 2.622 0.084 0.277 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.101 0.346 3.422 0.070 0.578 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.096 -0.121 2.653 0.071 0.544 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.082 -0.045 4.126 0.079 0.227 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.089 0.457 3.223 0.091 0.167 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.069 0.273 3.258 0.071 0.183 10 527052 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.088 0.323 4.563 0.073 0.417 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.068 0.583 4.302 0.059 0.342 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.061 -0.307 2.959 0.055 0.324 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.094 0.659 4.435 0.077 0.376 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.097 0.045 2.938 0.078 0.467 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.083 0.288 2.631 0.071 0.366 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.089 0.341 2.550 0.071 0.488 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.074 -0.296 2.910 0.065 0.360 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.074 0.351 2.661 0.066 0.329 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.075 0.540 3.323 0.064 0.346 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.073 -0.049 2.813 0.067 0.275 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.093 0.733 4.482 0.069 0.494 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.101 0.443 2.714 0.069 0.610 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.094 0.211 2.754 0.075 0.451 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.149 -3.386 25.240 0.109 0.262 25 527131 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.086 -0.051 3.502 0.061 0.568 26 527132 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.074 0.123 3.349 0.058 0.449 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.087 0.111 4.131 0.072 0.376 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.017 0.766 4.351 0.011 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.087 0.306 3.240 0.071 0.363 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.020 0.503 0.884 0.013 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.061 -3.386 2.550 0.055 0.167 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.074 -0.045 2.754 0.066 0.277 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.094 0.457 3.638 0.078 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.149 0.733 25.240 0.109 0.610 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 527012 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 527021 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 527022 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 527031 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 527032 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 527041 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 527042 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 527051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 527052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 527061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 527062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 527071 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 527072 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 527081 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 527082 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 527091 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 527092 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 527101 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 527111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 527112 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 527121 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 527122 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 527131 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 527132 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.066 0.500 4.189 0.069 0.123 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.999 0.082 0.358 3.698 0.079 0.105 3 527021 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.072 0.325 4.156 0.081 -0.043 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.000 0.073 0.671 3.386 0.084 -0.118 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.067 0.026 3.167 0.070 0.113 6 527032 1873 1978 106 0.999 0.067 0.008 3.452 0.072 0.067 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.076 -0.097 3.981 0.079 0.116 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.088 0.429 3.162 0.091 0.133 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.063 0.247 3.313 0.071 0.039 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.999 0.068 -0.290 4.113 0.073 0.100 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.061 0.346 3.986 0.059 0.216 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.056 -0.292 2.986 0.055 0.203 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.089 0.735 4.624 0.077 0.297 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.086 0.275 3.295 0.078 0.337 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.072 0.245 2.774 0.071 0.159 16 527082 1862 1978 117 0.999 0.075 0.415 2.964 0.071 0.258 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.067 -0.368 3.011 0.065 0.235 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.067 0.535 2.843 0.066 0.188 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.068 0.479 3.507 0.064 0.203 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.066 0.124 2.836 0.068 0.092 21 527111 1873 1978 106 0.999 0.077 0.560 4.945 0.069 0.290 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.999 0.083 0.538 3.458 0.068 0.430 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.075 -0.065 3.147 0.075 0.119 24 527122 1901 1978 78 0.999 0.130 -5.411 41.178 0.110 -0.014 25 527131 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.064 -0.230 4.423 0.062 0.245 26 527132 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.064 0.035 2.971 0.058 0.280 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.074 0.004 4.983 0.072 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.014 1.148 7.406 0.011 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.070 0.261 3.419 0.071 0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.011 0.544 1.102 0.012 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.999 0.056 -5.411 2.774 0.055 -0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.999 0.066 -0.065 3.011 0.066 0.100 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.077 0.479 4.113 0.078 0.245 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.130 0.735 41.178 0.110 0.430 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.324 0.137 0.008 -0.149 2.921 -0.107 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 527061 AND 527131 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 527031 AND 527032 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.349 0.330 0.354 SDEV 0.154 0.177 0.163 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.924 0.926 0.935 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 1.001 0.045 0.106 3.196 0.051 -0.046 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.068 0.031 0.020 36 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.49 1.00 1.09 1.58 8.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 -0.041 0.042 -0.142 0.016 0.008 0.051 0.124 0.128 -0.060 PACF -0.045 -0.043 0.038 -0.141 0.007 -0.005 0.065 0.112 0.153 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.181 0.184 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.022 -0.075 0.068 -0.151 0.041 0.022 0.013 0.117 0.084 -0.064 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.022 2 -0.024 -0.075 3 -0.019 -0.074 0.064 4 -0.009 -0.085 0.062 -0.156 5 -0.001 -0.088 0.066 -0.155 0.049 6 -0.001 -0.089 0.066 -0.156 0.048 -0.007 7 -0.001 -0.091 0.073 -0.159 0.052 -0.007 0.043 8 -0.005 -0.091 0.068 -0.144 0.046 0.002 0.043 0.093 9 -0.015 -0.095 0.068 -0.149 0.061 -0.005 0.052 0.093 0.107 10 -0.009 -0.091 0.070 -0.149 0.064 -0.013 0.056 0.088 0.106 -0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 639.59 641.53 642.77 644.22 642.95 644.64 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 646.63 648.39 649.25 649.72 651.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 527011 0 0.015 2 527012 0 0.011 3 527021 0 0.002 4 527022 0 0.015 5 527031 0 0.013 6 527032 0 0.004 7 527041 0 0.014 8 527042 0 0.018 9 527051 0 0.002 10 527052 0 0.010 11 527061 0 0.048 12 527062 0 0.041 13 527071 0 0.088 14 527072 0 0.114 15 527081 0 0.027 16 527082 0 0.071 17 527091 0 0.055 18 527092 0 0.036 19 527101 0 0.041 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 527102 0 0.009 21 527111 0 0.086 22 527112 0 0.187 23 527121 0 0.015 24 527122 0 0.000 25 527131 0 0.060 26 527132 0 0.078 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.043 MEDIAN 0 0.022 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.049 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.011 UPPER HINGE 0 0.060 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.187 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.066 0.500 4.189 0.069 0.123 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.082 0.358 3.698 0.079 0.105 3 527021 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.072 0.325 4.156 0.081 -0.043 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.000 0.073 0.671 3.386 0.084 -0.118 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.067 0.026 3.167 0.070 0.113 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.067 0.008 3.452 0.072 0.067 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.076 -0.097 3.981 0.079 0.116 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.088 0.429 3.162 0.091 0.133 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.063 0.247 3.313 0.071 0.039 10 527052 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.068 -0.290 4.113 0.073 0.100 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.061 0.345 3.986 0.059 0.216 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.056 -0.292 2.986 0.055 0.203 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.089 0.735 4.624 0.077 0.297 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.086 0.275 3.295 0.078 0.337 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.072 0.245 2.774 0.071 0.159 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.075 0.415 2.964 0.071 0.258 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.067 -0.368 3.011 0.065 0.235 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.067 0.535 2.843 0.066 0.188 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.068 0.479 3.507 0.064 0.203 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.066 0.124 2.836 0.068 0.092 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.077 0.560 4.945 0.069 0.290 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.083 0.538 3.458 0.068 0.430 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.075 -0.065 3.147 0.075 0.119 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.130 -5.411 41.178 0.110 -0.014 25 527131 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.064 -0.230 4.423 0.062 0.245 26 527132 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.064 0.035 2.971 0.058 0.280 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.074 0.004 4.983 0.072 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.014 1.148 7.406 0.011 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.070 0.261 3.419 0.071 0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.011 0.544 1.102 0.012 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.056 -5.411 2.774 0.055 -0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.066 -0.065 3.011 0.066 0.100 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.077 0.479 4.113 0.078 0.245 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.130 0.735 41.178 0.110 0.430 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.324 0.137 0.008 -0.149 2.921 -0.107 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 527061 AND 527131 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 527031 AND 527032 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.349 0.330 0.354 SDEV 0.154 0.177 0.163 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.924 0.926 0.935 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 1.001 0.045 0.107 3.197 0.051 -0.046 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.069 0.032 0.020 36 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.49 1.00 1.09 1.59 8.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 -0.041 0.042 -0.142 0.016 0.008 0.051 0.124 0.128 -0.060 PACF -0.045 -0.043 0.038 -0.140 0.007 -0.005 0.064 0.111 0.153 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.181 0.184 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 1.001 0.045 0.107 3.197 0.051 -0.046 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.045 -0.041 0.042 -0.142 0.016 0.008 0.051 0.124 0.128 -0.060 PACF -0.045 -0.043 0.038 -0.140 0.007 -0.005 0.064 0.111 0.153 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.181 0.184 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES