RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED013W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED013W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 527 1 Duvberg WIDTH_RING PCAB - 527 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 550 6204-1420 1846 1978 - 527 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.273 0.410 0.603 3.167 0.198 0.692 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.716 1.057 1.673 5.821 0.233 0.850 3 527021 1917 1978 62 2.781 1.133 0.155 2.335 0.236 0.686 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.789 0.704 0.137 2.017 0.240 0.630 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.324 0.824 1.977 6.812 0.199 0.840 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.432 0.855 1.884 6.604 0.211 0.819 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.475 0.523 0.124 2.642 0.221 0.653 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.421 0.504 0.466 3.834 0.217 0.663 9 527051 1870 1978 109 2.075 0.750 0.213 2.448 0.170 0.803 10 527052 1862 1978 117 2.026 0.820 0.164 2.471 0.167 0.851 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.854 0.688 0.860 3.242 0.186 0.812 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.749 0.872 2.216 9.060 0.192 0.780 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.640 0.846 0.176 2.046 0.174 0.865 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.574 0.956 0.677 2.651 0.160 0.928 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.484 0.607 1.091 3.491 0.195 0.772 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.782 0.774 1.020 3.721 0.194 0.802 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.187 0.392 1.085 4.630 0.194 0.687 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.806 0.808 0.410 2.219 0.180 0.876 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.946 0.711 0.439 2.726 0.158 0.848 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.525 0.691 0.670 2.755 0.190 0.822 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.909 0.961 0.700 3.455 0.168 0.897 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.842 0.873 0.788 4.192 0.190 0.851 23 527121 1898 1978 81 3.058 1.427 0.665 2.882 0.157 0.848 24 527122 1901 1978 78 2.850 1.258 0.384 2.161 0.180 0.854 25 527131 1882 1978 97 2.434 1.183 0.313 2.177 0.190 0.884 26 527132 1887 1978 92 3.038 1.567 0.322 2.126 0.173 0.930 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1846 TO 1978 133 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.884 0.854 0.739 3.526 0.191 0.806 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.532 0.288 0.601 1.754 0.024 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.786 0.822 0.634 2.819 0.190 0.831 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.542 0.271 0.707 1.499 0.026 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.187 0.392 0.124 2.017 0.157 0.630 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.484 0.691 0.313 2.335 0.173 0.772 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 2.026 0.961 1.020 3.834 0.199 0.854 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 3.058 1.567 2.216 9.060 0.240 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.452 0.295 0.016 -0.911 3.050 -0.428 0.915 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.428 SERIES 527072 AND 527092 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.915 SERIES 527031 AND 527032 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.436 0.449 0.579 SDEV 0.256 0.298 0.213 SERR 0.023 0.019 0.012 EPS 0.946 0.954 0.973 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 1.953 0.747 1.156 4.364 0.151 0.810 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.122 0.056 0.584 45 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.74 1.01 1.14 1.88 11.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.82 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 17. 62. 99. 116. 133. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.804 0.763 0.726 0.657 0.622 0.585 0.557 0.503 0.418 0.428 PACF 0.804 0.329 0.158 -0.034 0.029 0.025 0.046 -0.070 -0.183 0.142 95% C.L. 0.173 0.263 0.323 0.368 0.402 0.430 0.453 0.474 0.489 0.500 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.725 0.453 0.234 0.221 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069140 1.23706686 2 527012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00996918 1.17288339 3 527021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03696054 3.94522476 4 527022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02151849 2.53091741 5 527031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117586 1.38734233 6 527032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00224889 1.55191910 7 527041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01026616 1.99901974 8 527042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00599587 1.76010621 9 527051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01730007 3.02636600 10 527052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01191468 2.72937655 11 527061 1 2.32733488 0.02672344 0.00000000 1.22666776 12 527062 1 3.87898374 0.07101093 0.00000000 1.31339800 13 527071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01791143 2.68764615 14 527072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02679201 3.06086564 15 527081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088707 1.43958569 16 527082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00779414 1.32262456 17 527091 1 1.53781152 0.12546761 0.00000000 1.08398390 18 527092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01500069 0.92823541 19 527101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00385134 2.17090702 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01505273 2.29982328 21 527111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01125939 1.30649054 22 527112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01502065 1.06125641 23 527121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01531391 3.68577170 24 527122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159853 2.91301370 25 527131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01757706 1.57243562 26 527132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02845638 1.71449590 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.323 0.659 3.300 0.196 0.682 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.997 0.560 1.416 4.901 0.232 0.815 3 527021 1917 1978 62 0.987 0.326 0.559 2.591 0.233 0.580 4 527022 1911 1978 68 0.990 0.306 0.611 2.903 0.237 0.437 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.626 1.984 6.741 0.197 0.833 6 527032 1873 1978 106 0.999 0.603 1.937 6.627 0.209 0.812 7 527041 1878 1978 101 0.998 0.312 0.748 3.525 0.219 0.548 8 527042 1867 1978 112 0.998 0.346 1.151 5.118 0.215 0.623 9 527051 1870 1978 109 0.996 0.260 1.076 4.936 0.169 0.618 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.991 0.353 0.556 3.176 0.166 0.802 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.208 0.177 3.206 0.184 0.432 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.221 0.131 3.160 0.189 0.403 13 527071 1863 1978 116 0.984 0.412 0.967 4.230 0.170 0.798 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.067 0.370 1.544 6.977 0.161 0.704 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.409 1.096 3.482 0.193 0.761 16 527082 1862 1978 117 0.999 0.401 0.927 3.673 0.193 0.773 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.264 0.606 3.375 0.192 0.544 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.003 0.365 0.359 2.340 0.179 0.771 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.362 0.582 3.004 0.156 0.845 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 0.994 0.324 0.522 2.764 0.188 0.692 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.001 0.472 0.425 2.671 0.167 0.855 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.997 0.402 0.552 3.775 0.188 0.791 23 527121 1898 1978 81 0.996 0.440 0.530 2.534 0.155 0.829 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.441 0.386 2.177 0.178 0.844 25 527131 1882 1978 97 0.994 0.434 0.280 2.377 0.188 0.840 26 527132 1887 1978 92 0.987 0.450 0.524 2.338 0.171 0.904 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.999 0.384 0.781 3.688 0.189 0.713 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.015 0.105 0.494 1.391 0.023 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.999 0.368 0.594 3.253 0.188 0.772 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.006 0.117 0.554 1.560 0.027 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.984 0.208 0.131 2.177 0.155 0.403 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.994 0.323 0.522 2.671 0.170 0.618 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.440 1.076 4.230 0.197 0.829 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.067 0.626 1.984 6.977 0.237 0.904 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 527012 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 527021 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 527022 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 527031 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 527032 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 527041 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 527042 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 527051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 527052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 527061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 527062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 527071 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 527072 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 527081 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 527082 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 527091 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 527092 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 527101 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 527111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 527112 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 527121 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 527122 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 527131 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 527132 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 0.987 0.233 0.561 3.494 0.194 0.461 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.964 0.330 1.129 4.790 0.232 0.614 3 527021 1917 1978 62 0.997 0.192 -0.041 2.412 0.235 -0.134 4 527022 1911 1978 68 0.997 0.219 0.014 2.557 0.236 0.050 5 527031 1873 1978 106 0.985 0.329 1.233 5.100 0.195 0.673 6 527032 1873 1978 106 0.982 0.337 1.100 5.044 0.206 0.644 7 527041 1878 1978 101 0.996 0.294 0.960 3.919 0.219 0.518 8 527042 1867 1978 112 0.995 0.290 0.948 4.521 0.214 0.548 9 527051 1870 1978 109 0.996 0.224 0.772 3.958 0.169 0.524 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.993 0.212 0.355 3.668 0.165 0.510 11 527061 1846 1978 133 0.999 0.201 0.135 3.170 0.184 0.401 12 527062 1858 1978 121 0.998 0.199 -0.131 3.127 0.189 0.305 13 527071 1863 1978 116 0.980 0.273 0.712 4.059 0.169 0.651 14 527072 1869 1978 110 0.994 0.247 0.856 3.740 0.159 0.616 15 527081 1880 1978 99 0.981 0.270 0.689 3.455 0.194 0.567 16 527082 1862 1978 117 0.980 0.268 0.402 3.381 0.193 0.593 17 527091 1867 1978 112 0.994 0.219 0.646 4.493 0.192 0.375 18 527092 1863 1978 116 0.980 0.238 0.301 3.035 0.179 0.544 19 527101 1863 1978 116 0.986 0.242 -0.263 3.275 0.156 0.709 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 0.986 0.229 0.155 2.549 0.189 0.460 21 527111 1873 1978 106 0.963 0.316 0.154 2.910 0.165 0.785 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.981 0.313 0.235 3.480 0.188 0.706 23 527121 1898 1978 81 0.997 0.254 1.010 4.310 0.162 0.557 24 527122 1901 1978 78 0.995 0.253 0.294 3.888 0.179 0.553 25 527131 1882 1978 97 0.970 0.276 0.185 3.223 0.186 0.652 26 527132 1887 1978 92 0.978 0.275 -0.462 2.606 0.168 0.757 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.987 0.259 0.460 3.622 0.189 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.010 0.043 0.461 0.764 0.023 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.987 0.254 0.379 3.487 0.188 0.555 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.016 0.066 0.702 0.933 0.026 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.963 0.192 -0.462 2.412 0.156 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.980 0.224 0.154 3.127 0.169 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 0.996 0.290 0.856 4.059 0.195 0.651 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 0.999 0.337 1.233 5.100 0.236 0.785 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.404 0.168 0.009 0.093 2.638 -0.040 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 527072 AND 527111 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 527041 AND 527042 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.423 0.480 0.444 SDEV 0.179 0.191 0.186 SERR 0.016 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.944 0.959 0.954 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.984 0.161 0.146 3.160 0.137 0.423 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.124 0.060 0.108 46 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.51 1.01 1.07 1.58 2.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.420 0.395 0.350 0.317 0.245 0.201 0.197 0.149 -0.004 0.170 PACF 0.420 0.265 0.153 0.098 0.007 -0.010 0.032 -0.010 -0.180 0.178 95% C.L. 0.173 0.202 0.224 0.240 0.252 0.259 0.264 0.268 0.271 0.271 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.261 0.266 0.222 0.153 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.458 0.386 0.383 0.311 0.228 0.205 0.207 0.132 -0.030 0.184 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.458 2 0.356 0.223 3 0.313 0.156 0.190 4 0.302 0.146 0.171 0.061 5 0.303 0.150 0.175 0.067 -0.022 6 0.303 0.149 0.173 0.066 -0.024 0.008 7 0.303 0.151 0.170 0.057 -0.032 -0.007 0.052 8 0.305 0.150 0.169 0.059 -0.026 -0.002 0.063 -0.037 9 0.297 0.163 0.168 0.054 -0.014 0.033 0.094 0.026 -0.207 10 0.347 0.157 0.145 0.046 -0.010 0.020 0.053 -0.014 -0.279 0.244 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1007.91 978.62 973.81 970.90 972.41 974.35 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 976.34 977.98 979.80 976.00 969.85 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.313 0.156 0.190 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 138.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.313 0.254 0.319 0.199 0.160 0.142 0.107 0.086 0.071 0.0559 0.045 0.036 0.029 0.023 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.0062 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 527011 3 0.219 0.481 -0.037 -0.011 2 527012 3 0.386 0.612 -0.057 0.099 3 527021 3 0.049 -0.139 0.034 0.174 4 527022 3 0.064 0.049 0.001 0.161 5 527031 3 0.466 0.692 -0.080 0.082 6 527032 3 0.459 0.478 0.201 0.069 7 527041 3 0.380 0.354 0.324 -0.007 8 527042 3 0.337 0.429 0.196 0.031 9 527051 3 0.296 0.473 0.043 0.089 10 527052 3 0.362 0.352 0.366 -0.054 11 527061 3 0.214 0.345 0.244 -0.114 12 527062 3 0.107 0.295 0.090 -0.102 13 527071 3 0.432 0.586 0.056 0.061 14 527072 3 0.453 0.479 0.083 0.205 15 527081 3 0.340 0.568 0.004 0.031 16 527082 3 0.371 0.505 0.065 0.115 17 527091 3 0.211 0.317 0.001 0.265 18 527092 3 0.325 0.496 0.133 -0.061 19 527101 3 0.515 0.610 0.071 0.087 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 527102 3 0.325 0.346 0.017 0.332 21 527111 3 0.663 0.857 -0.212 0.172 22 527112 3 0.520 0.695 -0.115 0.183 23 527121 3 0.385 0.498 0.190 -0.030 24 527122 3 0.419 0.694 -0.178 -0.067 25 527131 3 0.437 0.608 0.095 -0.027 26 527132 3 0.602 0.656 0.093 0.064 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.359 0.474 0.063 0.067 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.150 0.208 0.138 0.113 MEDIAN 3 0.376 0.488 0.060 0.066 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.158 0.258 0.132 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.049 -0.139 -0.212 -0.114 LOWER HINGE 3 0.296 0.352 0.001 -0.027 UPPER HINGE 3 0.453 0.610 0.133 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.663 0.857 0.366 0.332 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.206 0.800 4.526 0.226 0.001 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.259 0.997 6.008 0.262 0.006 3 527021 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.187 0.002 2.299 0.211 0.004 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.000 0.216 0.098 2.689 0.227 0.027 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.242 0.762 4.699 0.257 0.011 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.249 0.820 5.179 0.247 0.009 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.238 0.466 3.653 0.261 -0.001 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.236 0.846 4.608 0.256 -0.002 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.189 -0.188 3.535 0.214 0.010 10 527052 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.170 0.200 5.594 0.192 -0.010 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.178 -0.009 3.199 0.210 -0.001 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.188 -0.263 3.517 0.210 -0.001 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.206 0.418 4.087 0.221 0.000 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.182 0.374 2.960 0.200 -0.002 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.218 0.620 4.265 0.242 -0.015 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.213 0.298 3.835 0.236 -0.006 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.195 0.561 4.941 0.221 -0.017 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.198 0.521 5.145 0.214 0.007 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.168 0.205 3.008 0.191 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.189 0.424 2.473 0.214 -0.037 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.189 0.910 4.859 0.191 0.036 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.218 0.923 5.407 0.222 0.017 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.195 0.232 4.228 0.209 -0.049 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.198 0.171 3.528 0.220 0.000 25 527131 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.206 0.440 3.090 0.231 -0.005 26 527132 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.173 0.010 2.784 0.192 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.204 0.409 4.004 0.222 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.025 0.356 1.038 0.022 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.198 0.421 3.961 0.221 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.030 0.591 1.770 0.027 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.168 -0.263 2.299 0.191 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.188 0.171 3.090 0.210 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.218 0.762 4.859 0.236 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.259 0.997 6.008 0.262 0.036 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.466 0.112 0.006 0.151 2.962 0.150 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.150 SERIES 527041 AND 527131 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 527041 AND 527042 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.461 0.540 0.509 SDEV 0.132 0.128 0.128 SERR 0.012 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.951 0.968 0.964 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.998 0.135 -0.080 3.132 0.164 -0.222 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.164 0.071 0.053 34 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.41 1.00 1.06 1.47 3.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.220 0.028 0.032 0.081 0.002 -0.009 0.056 0.053 -0.230 0.171 PACF -0.220 -0.021 0.035 0.101 0.044 -0.003 0.047 0.070 -0.221 0.074 95% C.L. 0.173 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.192 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 -0.221 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.001 0.023 0.103 0.016 0.012 0.060 0.015 -0.200 0.158 PACF -0.004 0.001 0.023 0.103 0.017 0.012 0.056 0.005 -0.207 0.158 95% C.L. 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.183 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.012 -0.004 0.001 0.023 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.998 0.163 -0.013 3.022 0.125 0.513 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.509 0.444 0.453 0.393 0.300 0.247 0.247 0.183 0.049 0.195 PACF 0.509 0.249 0.226 0.088 -0.030 -0.039 0.033 -0.026 -0.161 0.194 95% C.L. 0.173 0.214 0.240 0.264 0.281 0.291 0.297 0.303 0.306 0.307 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.348 0.322 0.167 0.228 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES