RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT123L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT123L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 607 1 Bźrchen Bielwald WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 607 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1740 4617-750 1708 1980 - 607 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 607011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 607021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 607031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 607062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 0.115 0.056 1.569 5.929 0.281 0.699 2 607012 1733 1980 248 0.122 0.061 1.445 5.537 0.290 0.710 3 607021 1708 1980 273 0.148 0.060 1.463 6.013 0.267 0.657 4 607022 1737 1980 244 0.140 0.056 0.879 3.884 0.336 0.354 5 607031 1861 1980 120 0.298 0.130 0.776 3.191 0.278 0.616 6 607032 1822 1980 159 0.310 0.147 1.035 4.129 0.278 0.679 7 607041 1865 1980 116 0.196 0.151 2.403 9.332 0.325 0.692 8 607042 1865 1980 116 0.280 0.234 1.688 5.600 0.416 0.650 9 607051 1890 1980 91 0.177 0.077 2.143 8.471 0.244 0.478 10 607052 1905 1980 76 0.179 0.083 4.301 25.315 0.232 0.465 11 607061 1804 1980 177 0.199 0.095 1.505 5.294 0.291 0.656 12 607062 1791 1980 190 0.211 0.119 2.079 11.095 0.323 0.575 13 607071 1860 1980 121 0.271 0.113 0.866 3.247 0.284 0.577 14 607072 1856 1980 125 0.273 0.127 1.105 3.742 0.296 0.578 15 607081 1867 1980 114 0.186 0.076 0.611 2.981 0.351 0.384 16 607082 1891 1980 90 0.230 0.094 0.572 2.837 0.340 0.383 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.193 0.099 1.141 3.927 0.290 0.677 18 607092 1826 1980 155 0.162 0.114 2.068 9.297 0.294 0.835 19 607101 1885 1980 96 0.277 0.090 1.531 6.501 0.236 0.539 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 0.292 0.126 4.098 25.768 0.259 0.540 21 607111 1889 1980 92 0.272 0.088 1.053 3.656 0.221 0.521 22 607112 1899 1980 82 0.295 0.092 1.142 4.201 0.216 0.572 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.221 0.139 2.047 8.023 0.263 0.751 24 607132 1898 1980 83 0.271 0.089 0.180 2.407 0.218 0.599 25 607141 1869 1980 112 0.298 0.134 1.077 3.926 0.305 0.602 26 607142 1869 1980 112 0.317 0.178 1.452 4.769 0.303 0.734 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1708 TO 1980 273 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.228 0.109 1.547 6.887 0.286 0.597 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.063 0.041 0.948 5.940 0.046 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 0.226 0.097 1.449 5.031 0.287 0.600 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.101 0.047 1.011 4.281 0.046 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.115 0.056 0.180 2.407 0.216 0.354 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.179 0.083 1.035 3.742 0.259 0.539 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 0.280 0.130 2.047 8.023 0.305 0.679 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 0.317 0.234 4.301 25.768 0.416 0.835 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.261 0.289 0.016 -0.302 2.175 -0.405 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.405 SERIES 607092 AND 607131 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 607031 AND 607032 120 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.388 0.431 0.522 0.300 0.319 0.317 0.269 0.232 SDEV 0.194 0.149 0.157 0.284 0.222 0.211 0.259 0.304 SERR 0.112 0.061 0.064 0.073 0.042 0.028 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.715 0.773 0.866 0.767 0.851 0.901 0.901 0.887 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.174 0.064 0.314 2.344 0.224 0.709 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.730 0.541 -0.019 99 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.57 1.00 1.12 2.69 162.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 63. 76. 96. 159. 273. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.707 0.690 0.649 0.633 0.644 0.629 0.574 0.559 0.551 0.523 PACF 0.707 0.380 0.182 0.141 0.171 0.103 -0.041 0.001 0.043 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.121 0.171 0.208 0.236 0.259 0.282 0.302 0.317 0.331 0.345 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.616 0.295 0.220 0.074 0.067 0.151 0.102 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000752 0.11567216 2 607012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000197 0.12128738 3 607021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011490 0.13228688 4 607022 1 0.02098180 0.01729372 0.00000000 0.13551208 5 607031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178635 0.40575784 6 607032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063527 0.36069581 7 607041 1 0.58760750 0.07915037 0.00000000 0.13488634 8 607042 1 0.74471152 0.02266774 0.00000000 0.02026883 9 607051 1 0.21303703 0.02742168 0.00000000 0.09999370 10 607052 1 0.65988886 0.36241940 0.00000000 0.15880625 11 607061 1 0.34251377 0.05459961 0.00000000 0.16422038 12 607062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00144617 0.34569800 13 607071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183878 0.38348761 14 607072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186396 0.39062968 15 607081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126271 0.25848317 16 607082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00135581 0.29202247 17 607091 1 0.32625732 0.01343410 0.00000000 0.03931586 18 607092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180039 0.30243066 19 607101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117845 0.21961622 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131597 0.22448263 21 607111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117704 0.21678931 22 607112 1 0.44189709 0.28362754 0.00000000 0.27832329 23 607131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112988 0.16366337 24 607132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025545 0.28145167 25 607141 1 0.31477964 0.02456359 0.00000000 0.19170132 26 607142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00359748 0.52040058 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 1.000 0.484 1.568 5.946 0.281 0.693 2 607012 1733 1980 248 1.000 0.502 1.448 5.548 0.289 0.707 3 607021 1708 1980 273 1.000 0.408 1.598 6.559 0.267 0.655 4 607022 1737 1980 244 1.000 0.393 0.757 3.413 0.335 0.360 5 607031 1861 1980 120 0.991 0.370 0.985 3.546 0.273 0.493 6 607032 1822 1980 159 0.998 0.481 1.327 4.826 0.276 0.686 7 607041 1865 1980 116 1.001 0.512 1.765 6.912 0.320 0.644 8 607042 1865 1980 116 1.003 0.413 1.101 5.418 0.415 0.205 9 607051 1890 1980 91 1.000 0.266 1.300 6.058 0.240 0.115 10 607052 1905 1980 76 1.000 0.233 0.736 4.551 0.219 0.316 11 607061 1804 1980 177 1.000 0.344 0.876 4.369 0.290 0.351 12 607062 1791 1980 190 1.002 0.368 1.288 5.973 0.319 0.308 13 607071 1860 1980 121 0.997 0.328 1.039 4.103 0.282 0.360 14 607072 1856 1980 125 0.996 0.371 1.108 4.314 0.294 0.437 15 607081 1867 1980 114 0.997 0.338 0.509 3.413 0.349 0.145 16 607082 1891 1980 90 0.997 0.369 0.602 3.186 0.336 0.281 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.998 0.303 0.582 3.774 0.288 0.286 18 607092 1826 1980 155 1.065 0.552 2.102 8.279 0.293 0.676 19 607101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.293 1.084 4.852 0.234 0.463 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.371 3.554 23.149 0.257 0.460 21 607111 1889 1980 92 1.001 0.298 0.761 2.916 0.218 0.475 22 607112 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.262 1.012 4.623 0.212 0.462 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.996 0.584 1.907 7.550 0.261 0.705 24 607132 1898 1980 83 1.000 0.329 0.237 2.335 0.216 0.597 25 607141 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.350 0.640 3.341 0.303 0.441 26 607142 1869 1980 112 1.021 0.448 1.557 4.969 0.300 0.509 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.002 0.383 1.209 5.536 0.283 0.455 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.014 0.092 0.663 3.883 0.047 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.369 1.093 4.724 0.285 0.461 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.002 0.120 0.800 2.428 0.046 0.328 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.991 0.233 0.237 2.335 0.212 0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.998 0.328 0.757 3.546 0.257 0.316 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.448 1.557 5.973 0.303 0.644 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 1.065 0.584 3.554 23.149 0.415 0.707 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607011 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 607012 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 607021 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 607022 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 607031 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 607032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 607041 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 607042 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 607051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 607052 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 607061 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 607062 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 607071 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 607072 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 607081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 607082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 607091 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 607092 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 607101 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607102 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 607111 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 607112 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 607131 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 607132 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 607141 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 607142 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 0.984 0.372 1.389 6.171 0.281 0.522 2 607012 1733 1980 248 0.987 0.429 1.326 5.636 0.290 0.611 3 607021 1708 1980 273 0.993 0.358 1.421 5.685 0.267 0.559 4 607022 1737 1980 244 0.992 0.352 0.802 4.178 0.335 0.223 5 607031 1861 1980 120 0.995 0.258 0.635 3.403 0.273 0.096 6 607032 1822 1980 159 0.993 0.319 1.445 6.229 0.277 0.318 7 607041 1865 1980 116 0.991 0.366 0.880 4.279 0.322 0.415 8 607042 1865 1980 116 0.996 0.400 1.106 5.400 0.415 0.175 9 607051 1890 1980 91 0.999 0.257 1.255 5.903 0.240 0.073 10 607052 1905 1980 76 0.998 0.195 0.234 3.245 0.219 0.052 11 607061 1804 1980 177 0.997 0.328 0.929 4.385 0.290 0.315 12 607062 1791 1980 190 0.999 0.364 1.251 5.782 0.319 0.300 13 607071 1860 1980 121 0.993 0.270 0.676 3.492 0.281 0.147 14 607072 1856 1980 125 0.996 0.342 1.006 4.060 0.294 0.367 15 607081 1867 1980 114 0.997 0.317 0.482 3.165 0.348 0.042 16 607082 1891 1980 90 0.997 0.334 0.505 3.083 0.337 0.148 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.998 0.288 0.422 3.149 0.288 0.211 18 607092 1826 1980 155 0.990 0.370 1.221 5.814 0.292 0.532 19 607101 1885 1980 96 0.997 0.276 1.085 4.887 0.234 0.408 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 0.995 0.340 3.227 21.071 0.257 0.408 21 607111 1889 1980 92 0.993 0.242 0.751 3.351 0.218 0.217 22 607112 1899 1980 82 0.996 0.218 0.700 4.085 0.212 0.237 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.972 0.343 1.594 6.467 0.260 0.411 24 607132 1898 1980 83 0.994 0.214 0.410 3.404 0.215 0.107 25 607141 1869 1980 112 0.996 0.329 0.559 3.323 0.303 0.379 26 607142 1869 1980 112 0.992 0.338 0.799 3.351 0.299 0.342 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.994 0.316 1.004 5.115 0.283 0.293 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.006 0.059 0.587 3.456 0.047 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 0.995 0.331 0.905 4.229 0.284 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.005 0.088 0.620 2.431 0.045 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.972 0.195 0.234 3.083 0.212 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.992 0.270 0.635 3.351 0.257 0.148 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 0.997 0.358 1.255 5.782 0.303 0.408 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 0.999 0.429 3.227 21.071 0.415 0.611 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.284 0.156 0.009 -0.117 3.202 -0.152 0.742 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 607042 AND 607131 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.742 SERIES 607101 AND 607102 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.458 0.451 0.456 0.386 0.341 0.363 0.329 0.316 SDEV 0.058 0.162 0.182 0.197 0.220 0.221 0.214 0.185 SERR 0.033 0.066 0.074 0.051 0.042 0.030 0.016 0.010 EPS 0.770 0.787 0.833 0.828 0.864 0.918 0.924 0.923 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.977 0.250 0.681 3.946 0.244 0.308 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.419 0.236 0.014 60 213 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.79 1.01 1.17 1.96 72.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.307 0.246 0.151 0.078 0.158 0.121 0.034 0.004 -0.026 -0.018 PACF 0.307 0.168 0.042 -0.013 0.122 0.045 -0.064 -0.043 -0.025 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.121 0.132 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.126 0.257 0.173 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.024 -0.004 0.010 -0.135 0.135 0.011 0.006 -0.080 -0.023 -0.014 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.024 2 0.024 -0.005 3 0.024 -0.005 0.010 4 0.026 -0.006 0.013 -0.135 5 0.045 -0.008 0.014 -0.139 0.145 6 0.045 -0.008 0.014 -0.139 0.145 -0.001 7 0.045 -0.010 0.016 -0.139 0.145 -0.001 0.011 8 0.047 -0.010 0.031 -0.154 0.147 -0.002 0.016 -0.107 9 0.049 -0.010 0.031 -0.158 0.151 -0.003 0.017 -0.109 0.025 10 0.050 -0.014 0.032 -0.158 0.156 -0.009 0.018 -0.109 0.027 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2116.64 2118.48 2120.47 2122.45 2119.40 2115.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2117.60 2119.57 2118.40 2120.24 2121.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.045 -0.008 0.014 -0.139 0.145 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.96 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.13 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.045 -0.006 0.014 -0.138 0.132 0.015 -0.005 0.023 -0.037 0.0152 0.004 -0.004 0.008 -0.007 0.001 0.001 -0.002 0.002 -0.001 -.0001 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 607011 5 0.292 0.479 0.083 0.038 -0.092 0.093 2 607012 5 0.409 0.516 0.099 0.075 -0.034 0.066 3 607021 5 0.386 0.386 0.217 -0.010 0.120 0.039 4 607022 5 0.134 0.156 0.256 -0.004 0.021 0.080 5 607031 5 0.128 0.109 0.083 0.008 -0.243 0.079 6 607032 5 0.215 0.238 0.191 0.094 -0.085 0.197 7 607041 5 0.224 0.325 0.195 0.097 -0.082 -0.006 8 607042 5 0.103 0.110 0.210 0.174 -0.051 -0.049 9 607051 5 0.141 0.039 -0.121 -0.155 -0.234 0.087 10 607052 5 0.102 0.078 -0.014 -0.040 -0.133 0.272 11 607061 5 0.195 0.206 0.139 0.234 -0.031 0.061 12 607062 5 0.160 0.313 0.013 0.180 -0.149 0.112 13 607071 5 0.058 0.147 0.082 0.057 -0.115 0.113 14 607072 5 0.172 0.357 0.070 0.047 -0.146 0.124 15 607081 5 0.128 0.052 -0.025 -0.115 -0.223 0.194 16 607082 5 0.078 0.148 -0.021 -0.078 0.045 0.148 17 607091 5 0.097 0.184 0.159 0.049 -0.103 0.129 18 607092 5 0.316 0.513 0.017 0.002 -0.062 0.186 19 607101 5 0.262 0.303 0.270 0.134 -0.203 -0.014 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 607102 5 0.212 0.327 0.149 0.132 -0.063 -0.045 21 607111 5 0.110 0.164 0.214 0.088 -0.123 -0.081 22 607112 5 0.076 0.206 0.103 0.051 -0.018 0.026 23 607131 5 0.212 0.365 0.081 -0.055 0.102 0.089 24 607132 5 0.076 0.103 0.085 0.073 -0.198 -0.019 25 607141 5 0.174 0.381 -0.071 0.147 0.002 0.044 26 607142 5 0.195 0.252 0.121 0.145 -0.039 0.123 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.179 0.248 0.099 0.053 -0.082 0.079 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 0.140 0.101 0.094 0.096 0.085 MEDIAN 5 0.166 0.222 0.092 0.054 -0.084 0.083 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.112 0.210 0.174 0.136 0.114 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.058 0.039 -0.121 -0.155 -0.243 -0.081 LOWER HINGE 5 0.103 0.147 0.017 -0.004 -0.146 0.026 UPPER HINGE 5 0.215 0.357 0.191 0.132 -0.031 0.124 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.409 0.516 0.270 0.234 0.120 0.272 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 1.000 0.313 0.958 5.099 0.338 0.003 2 607012 1733 1980 248 1.000 0.330 0.923 5.156 0.360 0.002 3 607021 1708 1980 273 1.000 0.278 0.755 3.990 0.311 -0.011 4 607022 1737 1980 244 1.002 0.322 0.760 5.048 0.348 -0.014 5 607031 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.248 0.714 3.357 0.266 0.019 6 607032 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.283 0.798 4.477 0.306 0.032 7 607041 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.323 0.606 3.940 0.363 0.000 8 607042 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.378 1.044 5.009 0.429 -0.001 9 607051 1890 1980 91 1.000 0.242 1.240 6.558 0.234 0.015 10 607052 1905 1980 76 1.000 0.184 0.164 3.014 0.217 0.024 11 607061 1804 1980 177 1.000 0.294 0.627 4.051 0.309 0.008 12 607062 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.333 1.047 5.298 0.357 -0.006 13 607071 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.262 0.696 3.520 0.290 0.005 14 607072 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.312 0.970 4.843 0.332 0.006 15 607081 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.300 0.429 3.625 0.318 0.031 16 607082 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.324 0.277 3.228 0.362 0.021 17 607091 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.274 0.343 3.248 0.316 0.003 18 607092 1826 1980 155 1.000 0.306 0.765 4.128 0.338 0.013 19 607101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.238 1.162 6.232 0.252 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.303 3.895 28.218 0.291 -0.004 21 607111 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.228 0.792 3.335 0.231 -0.003 22 607112 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.210 0.576 3.977 0.236 0.005 23 607131 1880 1980 101 1.000 0.306 1.711 8.042 0.297 0.008 24 607132 1898 1980 83 1.000 0.208 0.487 3.663 0.221 -0.001 25 607141 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.300 0.540 3.661 0.334 0.005 26 607142 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.306 0.775 3.531 0.325 0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.285 0.887 5.317 0.307 0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.000 0.046 0.695 4.818 0.053 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.300 0.763 4.021 0.313 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.000 0.065 0.394 1.569 0.072 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.184 0.164 3.014 0.217 -0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.248 0.576 3.531 0.266 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.313 0.970 5.099 0.338 0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 1.002 0.378 3.895 28.218 0.429 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.342 0.146 0.008 -0.328 3.261 -0.093 0.746 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.093 SERIES 607042 AND 607131 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.746 SERIES 607031 AND 607032 120 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.553 0.465 0.268 0.322 0.454 0.465 0.403 0.390 SDEV 0.070 0.141 0.130 0.162 0.148 0.150 0.199 0.171 SERR 0.040 0.057 0.053 0.042 0.028 0.020 0.014 0.009 EPS 0.831 0.796 0.685 0.785 0.910 0.945 0.944 0.943 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.986 0.201 0.175 3.022 0.251 -0.136 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.393 0.195 0.000 66 207 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.82 1.00 1.08 2.90 21.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.136 -0.057 -0.045 -0.006 0.005 0.066 -0.002 -0.006 -0.010 -0.023 PACF -0.136 -0.076 -0.065 -0.027 -0.008 0.062 0.016 0.005 -0.002 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.136 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.012 0.014 0.061 0.004 -0.006 -0.014 -0.034 PACF 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.012 0.014 0.061 0.003 -0.006 -0.015 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.012 0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.985 0.202 0.171 3.142 0.232 0.032 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.009 0.012 -0.120 0.148 0.069 0.007 -0.002 -0.051 -0.007 PACF 0.032 -0.010 0.013 -0.121 0.159 0.055 0.009 -0.022 -0.015 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES