RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT129W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT129W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 669 1 Balmberg SO, trocken WIDTH_RING PISY - 669 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 1220 4715-732 1802 1982 - 669 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 669031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1929 1936 / 1946 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 669032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 669052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1949 1949 / 1960 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 669061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 669092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1888 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 669112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 669121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 0.468 0.133 0.330 3.388 0.206 0.508 2 669021 1959 1982 24 0.440 0.084 0.351 3.072 0.217 0.011 3 669022 1855 1982 128 0.468 0.244 1.229 4.235 0.247 0.853 4 669031 1841 1982 142 0.416 0.291 1.656 5.198 0.266 0.826 5 669032 1835 1982 148 0.449 0.341 1.456 4.701 0.291 0.843 6 669041 1809 1982 174 0.615 0.317 0.275 1.959 0.228 0.868 7 669042 1811 1982 172 0.705 0.397 0.881 4.158 0.247 0.823 8 669051 1824 1980 157 0.529 0.280 0.842 3.398 0.270 0.797 9 669052 1802 1977 176 0.513 0.267 0.452 2.560 0.221 0.856 10 669061 1815 1982 168 0.657 0.374 1.391 5.060 0.254 0.848 11 669062 1813 1982 170 0.519 0.248 0.638 3.188 0.303 0.634 12 669071 1828 1982 155 0.667 0.245 0.741 3.463 0.214 0.755 13 669072 1823 1982 160 0.593 0.179 0.300 3.123 0.225 0.605 14 669091 1909 1982 74 0.292 0.120 0.773 3.469 0.356 0.559 15 669092 1827 1982 156 0.617 0.316 1.345 5.017 0.239 0.798 16 669101 1871 1982 112 0.950 0.345 0.885 2.913 0.202 0.784 17 669102 1859 1982 124 0.936 0.246 -0.176 3.398 0.174 0.646 18 669111 1882 1982 101 0.365 0.129 -0.019 2.412 0.249 0.661 19 669112 1844 1982 139 0.394 0.171 0.841 3.207 0.312 0.637 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 0.570 0.233 0.398 2.872 0.278 0.624 21 669122 1928 1982 55 0.529 0.223 -0.122 2.376 0.230 0.824 22 669131 1863 1981 119 0.624 0.348 0.342 2.048 0.245 0.878 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1802 TO 1982 181 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.560 0.251 0.673 3.419 0.249 0.711 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.162 0.087 0.516 0.951 0.041 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.529 0.247 0.690 3.297 0.246 0.791 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.175 0.138 0.555 1.286 0.049 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 24 0.292 0.084 -0.176 1.959 0.174 0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.449 0.179 0.330 2.872 0.221 0.634 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 0.624 0.317 0.885 4.158 0.270 0.843 MAXIMUM VALUE 174 0.950 0.397 1.656 5.198 0.356 0.878 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.367 0.232 0.015 -0.364 2.797 -0.265 0.923 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.265 SERIES 669092 AND 669111 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.923 SERIES 669031 AND 669032 142 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.218 0.314 0.287 0.310 SDEV 0.219 0.241 0.250 0.211 SERR 0.033 0.025 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.798 0.891 0.888 0.903 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.612 0.232 0.496 2.595 0.156 0.858 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.310 0.125 0.153 76 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.44 1.00 1.09 1.53 9.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 140. 48. 24. 112. 160. 176. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.853 0.798 0.765 0.685 0.645 0.622 0.596 0.573 0.529 0.470 PACF 0.853 0.256 0.157 -0.114 0.043 0.081 0.076 0.017 -0.094 -0.129 95% C.L. 0.149 0.233 0.287 0.329 0.359 0.384 0.406 0.424 0.441 0.455 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.762 0.616 0.162 0.239 -0.116 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 669012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00208725 0.59066904 2 669021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00151739 0.45855072 3 669022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00468026 0.77007997 4 669031 1 0.96219921 0.03928143 0.00000000 0.23976365 5 669032 1 1.10321832 0.02308342 0.00000000 0.13801855 6 669041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00535889 1.08424759 7 669042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00624135 1.24528360 8 669051 1 0.59785134 0.01318895 0.00000000 0.27833858 9 669052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00361407 0.81826794 10 669061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00407142 0.99853933 11 669062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235678 0.72079849 12 669071 1 0.42472693 0.05033327 0.00000000 0.61390847 13 669072 1 0.26432967 0.07501182 0.00000000 0.57160461 14 669091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00261207 0.19447982 15 669092 1 1.01839876 0.04017645 0.00000000 0.45531765 16 669101 1 0.99419147 0.01573685 0.00000000 0.48605758 17 669102 1 0.49195024 0.00995034 0.00000000 0.65460420 18 669111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00091625 0.31812277 19 669112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035642 0.36761877 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 669121 1 0.31262591 0.02895711 0.00000000 0.47350138 21 669122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00250794 0.45850506 22 669131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00822062 1.11769116 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.242 0.163 3.103 0.204 0.390 2 669021 1959 1982 24 1.000 0.189 0.243 2.869 0.207 0.012 3 669022 1855 1982 128 1.019 0.376 1.047 3.991 0.245 0.566 4 669031 1841 1982 142 1.002 0.403 0.621 2.934 0.265 0.663 5 669032 1835 1982 148 1.009 0.431 0.796 3.188 0.290 0.628 6 669041 1809 1982 174 1.022 0.346 0.700 4.137 0.227 0.622 7 669042 1811 1982 172 1.012 0.352 0.594 3.747 0.245 0.568 8 669051 1824 1980 157 1.001 0.475 1.003 3.943 0.268 0.733 9 669052 1802 1977 176 0.991 0.386 0.713 3.436 0.220 0.740 10 669061 1815 1982 168 1.001 0.470 1.335 5.291 0.255 0.767 11 669062 1813 1982 170 1.002 0.458 1.574 9.074 0.301 0.516 12 669071 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.355 1.141 5.235 0.212 0.731 13 669072 1823 1982 160 1.000 0.299 0.520 3.712 0.223 0.583 14 669091 1909 1982 74 1.003 0.376 0.776 3.242 0.350 0.332 15 669092 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.380 1.454 5.966 0.239 0.669 16 669101 1871 1982 112 1.000 0.262 0.583 3.115 0.200 0.556 17 669102 1859 1982 124 1.000 0.252 0.067 3.312 0.173 0.617 18 669111 1882 1982 101 1.001 0.355 0.158 2.742 0.247 0.643 19 669112 1844 1982 139 1.000 0.436 0.837 3.213 0.317 0.621 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.408 0.740 3.922 0.279 0.685 21 669122 1928 1982 55 1.000 0.417 -0.215 2.172 0.226 0.796 22 669131 1863 1981 119 1.003 0.336 0.093 2.888 0.243 0.633 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.003 0.364 0.679 3.874 0.247 0.594 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.007 0.077 0.469 1.471 0.042 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.376 0.706 3.374 0.244 0.625 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.003 0.081 0.760 0.888 0.048 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 24 0.991 0.189 -0.215 2.172 0.173 0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.336 0.243 3.103 0.220 0.566 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 1.003 0.417 1.003 3.991 0.268 0.685 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.022 0.475 1.574 9.074 0.350 0.796 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 669012 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 669021 -67 16 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 669022 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 669031 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 669032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 669041 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 669042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 669051 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 669052 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 669061 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 669062 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 669071 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 669072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 669091 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 669092 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 669101 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 669102 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 669111 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 669112 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 669121 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 669122 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 669131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 0.999 0.236 0.169 3.408 0.204 0.369 2 669021 1959 1982 24 0.999 0.177 0.535 3.532 0.203 -0.134 3 669022 1855 1982 128 0.989 0.257 0.619 3.548 0.244 0.254 4 669031 1841 1982 142 0.996 0.374 0.454 2.709 0.264 0.623 5 669032 1835 1982 148 0.997 0.413 0.889 3.519 0.289 0.618 6 669041 1809 1982 174 0.992 0.270 0.224 3.141 0.227 0.473 7 669042 1811 1982 172 0.996 0.320 0.620 3.946 0.245 0.524 8 669051 1824 1980 157 0.990 0.445 1.364 5.556 0.268 0.696 9 669052 1802 1977 176 0.988 0.330 0.678 3.428 0.220 0.656 10 669061 1815 1982 168 0.992 0.437 1.245 4.748 0.254 0.743 11 669062 1813 1982 170 0.995 0.436 1.464 7.933 0.301 0.496 12 669071 1828 1982 155 0.995 0.320 0.867 4.168 0.212 0.672 13 669072 1823 1982 160 0.997 0.271 0.091 3.025 0.223 0.503 14 669091 1909 1982 74 0.990 0.303 0.528 3.209 0.351 0.013 15 669092 1827 1982 156 0.992 0.320 0.929 4.430 0.239 0.575 16 669101 1871 1982 112 0.995 0.221 0.434 3.245 0.199 0.346 17 669102 1859 1982 124 0.996 0.236 0.062 3.211 0.172 0.572 18 669111 1882 1982 101 0.991 0.236 -0.124 3.153 0.246 0.243 19 669112 1844 1982 139 0.996 0.338 0.547 3.288 0.317 0.400 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 0.991 0.369 0.413 3.332 0.279 0.635 21 669122 1928 1982 55 0.969 0.293 -0.232 3.182 0.220 0.617 22 669131 1863 1981 119 0.994 0.313 0.036 2.852 0.242 0.577 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.993 0.314 0.537 3.753 0.246 0.476 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.006 0.075 0.460 1.144 0.042 0.222 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 0.994 0.317 0.532 3.370 0.243 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.005 0.113 0.698 0.764 0.048 0.254 MINIMUM VALUE 24 0.969 0.177 -0.232 2.709 0.172 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.991 0.257 0.169 3.182 0.220 0.369 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 0.996 0.369 0.867 3.946 0.268 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 0.999 0.445 1.464 7.933 0.351 0.743 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.292 0.164 0.011 -0.362 4.371 -0.310 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.310 SERIES 669021 AND 669042 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 669031 AND 669032 142 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.249 0.298 0.285 0.377 SDEV 0.218 0.209 0.201 0.194 SERR 0.033 0.022 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.825 0.884 0.887 0.926 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.990 0.209 0.221 2.990 0.156 0.582 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.232 0.103 0.135 55 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.59 1.00 1.08 1.68 10.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.578 0.443 0.367 0.221 0.132 0.052 0.048 -0.045 -0.150 -0.303 PACF 0.578 0.162 0.091 -0.087 -0.044 -0.057 0.057 -0.105 -0.146 -0.264 95% C.L. 0.149 0.192 0.213 0.227 0.232 0.233 0.234 0.234 0.234 0.236 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.358 0.489 0.156 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.592 0.450 0.364 0.267 0.144 0.027 0.044 -0.077 -0.196 -0.362 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.592 2 0.501 0.153 3 0.490 0.116 0.075 4 0.491 0.117 0.081 -0.013 5 0.489 0.125 0.092 0.033 -0.093 6 0.479 0.128 0.103 0.047 -0.038 -0.112 7 0.488 0.131 0.099 0.039 -0.049 -0.152 0.083 8 0.501 0.109 0.092 0.044 -0.034 -0.133 0.155 -0.146 9 0.477 0.134 0.070 0.039 -0.027 -0.118 0.172 -0.065 -0.162 10 0.431 0.116 0.118 0.005 -0.035 -0.108 0.192 -0.027 -0.028 -0.281 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1375.56 1299.46 1297.15 1298.12 1300.10 1300.52 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1300.22 1300.96 1299.07 1296.25 1283.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 0.153 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 36.57 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 157.66 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.501 0.405 0.280 0.202 0.144 0.103 0.074 0.053 0.038 0.0271 0.019 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0010 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 669012 2 0.161 0.322 0.129 2 669021 2 0.135 -0.141 -0.041 3 669022 2 0.128 0.193 0.255 4 669031 2 0.389 0.600 0.038 5 669032 2 0.388 0.620 -0.001 6 669041 2 0.262 0.390 0.182 7 669042 2 0.295 0.436 0.168 8 669051 2 0.488 0.698 0.001 9 669052 2 0.438 0.634 0.040 10 669061 2 0.560 0.682 0.086 11 669062 2 0.314 0.431 0.132 12 669071 2 0.468 0.581 0.139 13 669072 2 0.315 0.397 0.214 14 669091 2 0.032 0.011 0.163 15 669092 2 0.355 0.472 0.180 16 669101 2 0.122 0.338 0.025 17 669102 2 0.342 0.545 0.054 18 669111 2 0.082 0.240 0.018 19 669112 2 0.189 0.331 0.176 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 669121 2 0.421 0.539 0.155 21 669122 2 0.386 0.671 -0.087 22 669131 2 0.374 0.459 0.211 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.302 0.429 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.145 0.216 0.093 MEDIAN 2 0.329 0.448 0.130 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.228 0.269 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.032 -0.141 -0.087 LOWER HINGE 2 0.161 0.331 0.025 UPPER HINGE 2 0.389 0.600 0.176 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.560 0.698 0.255 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.217 0.238 3.933 0.235 -0.013 2 669021 1959 1982 24 1.000 0.175 0.228 3.341 0.198 -0.013 3 669022 1855 1982 128 1.000 0.239 0.517 3.668 0.256 0.003 4 669031 1841 1982 142 1.000 0.292 0.548 2.884 0.312 0.000 5 669032 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.325 0.433 3.223 0.350 0.000 6 669041 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.234 0.293 3.713 0.258 0.017 7 669042 1811 1982 172 1.000 0.269 0.155 4.012 0.294 -0.003 8 669051 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.319 0.583 3.684 0.359 0.002 9 669052 1802 1977 176 1.000 0.248 0.330 3.206 0.276 -0.003 10 669061 1815 1982 168 1.000 0.289 0.837 4.534 0.309 0.003 11 669062 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.375 2.070 14.099 0.366 -0.036 12 669071 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.234 0.537 3.739 0.269 -0.005 13 669072 1823 1982 160 1.000 0.228 0.187 3.430 0.258 -0.038 14 669091 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.299 0.557 3.397 0.343 0.012 15 669092 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.257 0.362 3.510 0.299 0.008 16 669101 1871 1982 112 1.000 0.207 0.387 2.900 0.222 -0.001 17 669102 1859 1982 124 1.000 0.192 -0.028 3.855 0.209 -0.002 18 669111 1882 1982 101 1.000 0.229 0.125 2.849 0.265 -0.004 19 669112 1844 1982 139 1.000 0.305 0.427 3.230 0.360 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.281 0.227 2.498 0.332 -0.006 21 669122 1928 1982 55 1.000 0.230 0.712 3.972 0.260 0.000 22 669131 1863 1981 119 1.000 0.249 0.333 3.244 0.295 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.000 0.259 0.457 3.951 0.288 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.048 0.414 2.314 0.050 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.248 0.375 3.470 0.285 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.000 0.064 0.320 0.632 0.075 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 24 1.000 0.175 -0.028 2.498 0.198 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.229 0.228 3.223 0.258 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 1.000 0.292 0.548 3.855 0.332 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.000 0.375 2.070 14.099 0.366 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.284 0.148 0.010 -0.560 4.681 -0.266 0.672 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.266 SERIES 669021 AND 669091 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.672 SERIES 669121 AND 669122 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.188 0.252 0.228 0.341 SDEV 0.171 0.182 0.171 0.184 SERR 0.026 0.019 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.767 0.858 0.853 0.914 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.998 0.161 0.189 3.299 0.180 0.001 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.214 0.106 0.091 58 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.53 1.00 1.07 1.60 4.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.010 0.142 0.013 -0.005 -0.039 0.071 0.040 -0.021 -0.259 PACF 0.001 -0.010 0.142 0.012 -0.002 -0.060 0.069 0.040 -0.005 -0.287 95% C.L. 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 0.142 0.012 -0.003 -0.038 0.070 0.037 -0.020 -0.260 PACF 0.001 0.000 0.142 0.012 -0.003 -0.060 0.069 0.038 -0.006 -0.288 95% C.L. 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.998 0.209 0.079 2.723 0.146 0.629 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.626 0.501 0.420 0.273 0.174 0.084 0.049 -0.043 -0.150 -0.302 PACF 0.626 0.180 0.085 -0.098 -0.057 -0.061 0.027 -0.098 -0.147 -0.259 95% C.L. 0.149 0.199 0.225 0.241 0.248 0.251 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.254 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.416 0.516 0.176 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES