RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Ta.gesun DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 550 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 555 4709-726 1899 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 550191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 0.867 0.060 -0.210 3.602 0.063 0.395 2 550162 1925 1979 55 0.832 0.063 0.729 3.530 0.085 0.106 3 550171 1913 1979 67 0.881 0.052 0.209 3.127 0.066 0.166 4 550172 1916 1979 64 0.884 0.069 -0.672 3.216 0.069 0.436 5 550181 1924 1979 56 0.868 0.058 -0.186 2.638 0.065 0.211 6 550182 1922 1979 58 0.867 0.049 0.435 4.177 0.053 0.302 7 550191 1916 1979 64 0.849 0.050 -0.194 2.821 0.057 0.266 8 550192 1914 1979 66 0.837 0.064 -0.114 3.129 0.070 0.354 9 550201 1915 1979 65 0.859 0.063 0.089 2.676 0.066 0.384 10 550202 1913 1979 67 0.847 0.063 -0.194 3.406 0.075 0.294 11 550211 1909 1979 71 0.885 0.070 0.002 2.561 0.069 0.436 12 550212 1909 1979 71 0.891 0.065 0.195 2.662 0.066 0.375 13 550221 1913 1979 67 0.905 0.054 -0.151 2.498 0.051 0.471 14 550222 1899 1979 81 0.892 0.057 -0.229 2.456 0.067 0.265 15 550231 1911 1979 69 0.837 0.072 0.270 2.583 0.083 0.295 16 550232 1905 1979 75 0.884 0.062 -0.048 2.713 0.065 0.323 17 550241 1913 1979 67 0.881 0.056 0.097 2.601 0.074 0.039 18 550242 1912 1979 68 0.905 0.051 -0.376 3.171 0.058 0.061 19 550251 1914 1979 66 0.865 0.052 -0.174 3.277 0.059 0.287 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 0.821 0.055 -0.211 3.430 0.068 0.280 21 550261 1913 1979 67 0.816 0.054 -0.190 3.014 0.064 0.345 22 550262 1908 1979 72 0.785 0.096 -1.755 5.932 0.070 0.716 23 550271 1917 1979 63 0.869 0.067 0.092 2.811 0.069 0.428 24 550272 1925 1979 55 0.844 0.077 -0.102 2.368 0.074 0.568 25 550281 1906 1979 74 0.904 0.046 -0.547 3.386 0.055 0.189 26 550282 1901 1979 79 0.907 0.060 -0.258 2.485 0.053 0.487 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1899 TO 1979 81 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 0.865 0.061 -0.134 3.087 0.066 0.326 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.031 0.011 0.440 0.731 0.009 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 0.868 0.060 -0.162 2.918 0.066 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.041 0.011 0.302 0.784 0.010 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.785 0.046 -1.755 2.368 0.051 0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.844 0.054 -0.211 2.601 0.059 0.265 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 0.885 0.065 0.092 3.386 0.070 0.428 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 0.907 0.096 0.729 5.932 0.085 0.716 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.492 0.150 0.008 -0.411 2.886 0.013 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 550191 AND 550262 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 550211 AND 550212 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.481 SDEV 0.173 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.960 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.870 0.044 0.164 2.640 0.058 0.116 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.035 0.013 0.040 17 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 1.31 1.00 1.08 2.40 3.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 67. 8. 55. 63. 71. 81. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.115 0.241 0.221 0.166 0.210 0.140 0.083 0.061 0.083 0.027 PACF 0.115 0.231 0.186 0.092 0.121 0.042 -0.035 -0.051 0.007 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.222 0.225 0.238 0.248 0.253 0.262 0.265 0.266 0.267 0.268 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.113 0.042 0.218 0.197 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 1 0.04211426 0.03246114 0.00000000 0.84958351 2 550162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084704 0.85589898 3 550171 1 0.09406748 0.03897858 0.00000000 0.84846586 4 550172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232051 0.95916665 5 550181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048872 0.85392857 6 550182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010551 0.87052631 7 550191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015405 0.85280365 8 550192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121303 0.87745452 9 550201 1 0.11532861 0.09742080 0.00000000 0.84207577 10 550202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073789 0.87180465 11 550211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106372 0.92294163 12 550212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090074 0.92383498 13 550221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111422 0.94295794 14 550222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067254 0.91954941 15 550231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003325 0.83564788 16 550232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065917 0.85868472 17 550241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091428 0.91227949 18 550242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017674 0.91109747 19 550251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099029 0.89832634 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126897 0.85705841 21 550261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095738 0.84837180 22 550262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00255997 0.87843895 23 550271 1 0.21648462 0.01230101 0.00000000 0.71901220 24 550272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00161833 0.88913131 25 550281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065383 0.92843765 26 550282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117089 0.95392406 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.068 -0.333 3.827 0.062 0.358 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.073 0.668 3.425 0.084 0.050 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.052 0.174 2.879 0.065 -0.034 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.062 -0.059 2.940 0.068 0.084 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.066 -0.021 2.557 0.063 0.207 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.056 0.452 4.171 0.052 0.295 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.059 -0.201 2.854 0.057 0.277 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.071 -0.115 3.276 0.069 0.253 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.067 0.070 2.703 0.066 0.238 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.072 -0.111 3.324 0.074 0.255 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.075 0.095 2.612 0.068 0.374 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.070 0.257 2.923 0.065 0.313 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.055 0.120 2.563 0.050 0.341 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.061 -0.230 2.380 0.066 0.189 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.086 0.273 2.585 0.082 0.290 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.068 0.065 2.701 0.064 0.286 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.060 0.218 2.509 0.073 -0.084 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.056 -0.402 3.177 0.057 0.053 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.056 -0.410 3.373 0.058 0.165 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.063 -0.374 3.152 0.067 0.145 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.062 -0.072 3.317 0.064 0.245 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.107 -0.935 4.422 0.069 0.631 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.068 0.206 2.910 0.068 0.222 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.086 -0.118 2.513 0.072 0.473 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.048 -0.212 2.867 0.054 0.108 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.059 -0.663 3.932 0.052 0.304 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.066 -0.064 3.073 0.065 0.232 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.012 0.342 0.540 0.008 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.064 -0.066 2.917 0.065 0.249 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.012 0.404 0.712 0.010 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.048 -0.935 2.380 0.050 -0.084 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.059 -0.230 2.612 0.058 0.145 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.071 0.174 3.324 0.069 0.304 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.107 0.668 4.422 0.084 0.631 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550162 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550171 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550172 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550181 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550182 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550191 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550192 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550201 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550202 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550211 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550221 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550222 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550231 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550232 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550241 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550242 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550251 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550261 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550262 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550271 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550272 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550281 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550282 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.065 -0.275 3.737 0.062 0.288 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.068 0.460 2.817 0.084 -0.077 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.052 0.238 2.879 0.065 -0.056 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.060 0.073 3.322 0.068 0.019 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.058 0.084 3.306 0.063 -0.011 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.049 0.419 3.709 0.052 0.099 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.053 -0.223 3.122 0.057 0.110 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.065 -0.146 2.947 0.069 0.101 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.063 -0.034 2.576 0.066 0.156 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.065 -0.208 3.193 0.074 0.087 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.063 -0.233 2.483 0.068 0.104 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.062 -0.191 2.363 0.065 0.134 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.046 -0.002 3.191 0.050 0.079 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.055 -0.216 2.272 0.066 0.011 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.078 0.064 2.067 0.082 0.129 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.063 0.008 2.681 0.064 0.163 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.058 0.164 2.437 0.073 -0.161 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.052 -0.569 3.364 0.057 -0.098 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.055 -0.441 3.284 0.058 0.128 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.059 -0.443 3.287 0.067 0.055 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.060 -0.042 3.137 0.064 0.186 22 550262 1908 1979 72 0.999 0.073 -0.593 3.877 0.068 0.204 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.064 0.162 2.935 0.068 0.144 24 550272 1925 1979 55 0.999 0.072 -0.288 2.486 0.072 0.281 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.044 -0.120 2.571 0.054 -0.104 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.055 -0.323 2.836 0.052 0.224 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.060 -0.103 2.957 0.065 0.084 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.008 0.271 0.472 0.008 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.060 -0.133 2.941 0.065 0.102 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.010 0.348 0.716 0.010 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.999 0.044 -0.593 2.067 0.050 -0.161 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.055 -0.275 2.571 0.058 0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.065 0.073 3.287 0.068 0.156 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.078 0.460 3.877 0.084 0.288 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.477 0.157 0.009 -0.395 2.945 0.004 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.004 SERIES 550172 AND 550262 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 550231 AND 550232 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.488 SDEV 0.173 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.961 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.998 0.044 0.149 2.435 0.055 -0.098 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.025 0.068 15 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.44 1.02 1.05 1.49 2.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.097 0.040 0.030 -0.037 0.105 -0.025 -0.107 -0.049 -0.041 -0.061 PACF -0.097 0.031 0.037 -0.032 0.097 -0.005 -0.117 -0.078 -0.039 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.222 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.228 0.228 0.230 0.231 0.231 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.047 0.010 -0.010 -0.077 0.167 -0.018 -0.151 -0.078 -0.044 -0.094 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.047 2 -0.047 0.008 3 -0.047 0.008 -0.009 4 -0.048 0.008 -0.012 -0.078 5 -0.035 0.010 -0.014 -0.070 0.162 6 -0.035 0.010 -0.014 -0.070 0.161 -0.003 7 -0.035 0.036 -0.025 -0.073 0.163 -0.009 -0.162 8 -0.051 0.036 -0.010 -0.080 0.161 -0.005 -0.166 -0.095 9 -0.053 0.032 -0.010 -0.076 0.159 -0.005 -0.165 -0.097 -0.022 10 -0.055 0.019 -0.032 -0.077 0.180 -0.016 -0.166 -0.092 -0.029 -0.135 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 351.20 353.02 355.02 357.01 358.52 358.37 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 360.37 360.21 361.46 363.43 363.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550161 0 0.088 2 550162 0 0.006 3 550171 0 0.003 4 550172 0 0.000 5 550181 0 0.000 6 550182 0 0.010 7 550191 0 0.012 8 550192 0 0.010 9 550201 0 0.025 10 550202 0 0.008 11 550211 0 0.012 12 550212 0 0.018 13 550221 0 0.007 14 550222 0 0.000 15 550231 0 0.018 16 550232 0 0.027 17 550241 0 0.026 18 550242 0 0.010 19 550251 0 0.017 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550252 0 0.003 21 550261 0 0.035 22 550262 0 0.042 23 550271 0 0.021 24 550272 0 0.084 25 550281 0 0.011 26 550282 0 0.053 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.023 MEDIAN 0 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.007 UPPER HINGE 0 0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.088 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.065 -0.275 3.737 0.062 0.288 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.068 0.460 2.817 0.084 -0.077 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.052 0.238 2.879 0.065 -0.056 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.060 0.073 3.322 0.068 0.019 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.058 0.084 3.306 0.063 -0.011 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.049 0.419 3.709 0.052 0.099 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.053 -0.223 3.122 0.057 0.110 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.065 -0.146 2.947 0.069 0.101 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.063 -0.034 2.576 0.066 0.156 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.065 -0.208 3.193 0.074 0.087 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.063 -0.233 2.483 0.068 0.104 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.062 -0.191 2.363 0.065 0.134 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.046 -0.002 3.191 0.050 0.079 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.055 -0.216 2.272 0.066 0.011 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.078 0.064 2.067 0.082 0.129 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.063 0.008 2.681 0.064 0.163 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.058 0.164 2.437 0.073 -0.161 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.052 -0.569 3.364 0.057 -0.098 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.055 -0.441 3.284 0.058 0.128 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.059 -0.443 3.287 0.067 0.055 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.060 -0.042 3.137 0.064 0.186 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.073 -0.593 3.877 0.068 0.204 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.064 0.162 2.935 0.068 0.144 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.072 -0.288 2.486 0.072 0.281 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.044 -0.120 2.571 0.054 -0.104 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.055 -0.323 2.836 0.052 0.224 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.060 -0.103 2.957 0.065 0.084 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.008 0.271 0.472 0.008 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.060 -0.133 2.941 0.065 0.102 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.010 0.348 0.716 0.010 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.044 -0.593 2.067 0.050 -0.161 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.055 -0.275 2.571 0.058 0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.065 0.073 3.287 0.068 0.156 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.078 0.460 3.877 0.084 0.288 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.477 0.157 0.009 -0.395 2.945 0.004 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.004 SERIES 550172 AND 550262 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 550231 AND 550232 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.488 SDEV 0.173 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.961 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.999 0.044 0.150 2.436 0.055 -0.097 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.056 -0.025 0.067 15 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.44 1.03 1.05 1.50 2.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.096 0.040 0.030 -0.038 0.105 -0.025 -0.107 -0.049 -0.042 -0.061 PACF -0.096 0.031 0.038 -0.033 0.097 -0.005 -0.118 -0.078 -0.039 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.222 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.228 0.228 0.230 0.231 0.231 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.999 0.044 0.150 2.436 0.055 -0.097 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.096 0.040 0.030 -0.038 0.105 -0.025 -0.107 -0.049 -0.042 -0.061 PACF -0.096 0.031 0.038 -0.033 0.097 -0.005 -0.118 -0.078 -0.039 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.222 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.228 0.228 0.230 0.231 0.231 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES