RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Vergl.Pr DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 550 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 555 4709-726 1917 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 0.882 0.076 0.051 2.496 0.079 0.402 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.875 0.086 -0.719 3.537 0.098 0.262 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.867 0.076 0.250 3.032 0.084 0.358 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.826 0.108 -1.164 4.911 0.101 0.597 5 550331 1917 1979 63 0.904 0.089 -0.072 2.557 0.092 0.330 6 550332 1918 1979 62 0.910 0.097 -0.007 2.387 0.082 0.471 7 550341 1927 1979 53 0.820 0.090 -0.316 3.031 0.104 0.302 8 550342 1928 1979 52 0.836 0.084 -0.302 2.621 0.086 0.508 9 550351 1931 1979 49 0.824 0.108 -0.162 3.075 0.116 0.392 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.818 0.105 0.171 3.105 0.123 0.328 11 550361 1921 1979 59 0.895 0.088 -0.212 3.229 0.095 0.251 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.851 0.099 0.675 2.664 0.100 0.404 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.835 0.085 -0.294 2.773 0.097 0.269 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.833 0.098 -0.401 3.075 0.093 0.575 15 550381 1924 1979 56 0.797 0.109 0.038 2.731 0.112 0.539 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.803 0.110 -0.051 2.732 0.115 0.529 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.840 0.077 -0.215 3.290 0.088 0.354 18 550392 1926 1979 54 0.844 0.083 -0.814 3.748 0.082 0.425 19 550401 1928 1979 52 0.876 0.090 -0.076 2.438 0.107 0.231 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 0.874 0.094 -0.046 2.492 0.108 0.230 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.846 0.083 -0.185 2.340 0.078 0.508 22 550412 1929 1979 51 0.844 0.078 -0.726 3.434 0.071 0.579 23 550421 1942 1979 38 0.807 0.078 -0.073 2.679 0.103 0.233 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.772 0.077 0.415 2.454 0.110 0.095 25 550431 1931 1979 49 0.749 0.079 -0.026 3.529 0.088 0.459 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.746 0.089 0.571 3.391 0.091 0.483 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1917 TO 1979 63 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.838 0.090 -0.142 2.990 0.096 0.389 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.043 0.011 0.410 0.564 0.013 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 0.838 0.088 -0.075 2.902 0.096 0.397 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.056 0.019 0.340 0.732 0.022 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.746 0.076 -1.164 2.340 0.071 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.818 0.079 -0.302 2.557 0.086 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 0.874 0.098 0.038 3.290 0.107 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 0.910 0.110 0.675 4.911 0.123 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.582 0.135 0.007 -0.716 3.563 0.135 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.135 SERIES 550311 AND 550332 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.836 0.068 0.087 2.929 0.073 0.390 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.230 -0.066 0.127 11 52 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.03 0.21 1.00 1.02 1.23 4.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 52. 7. 38. 49. 56. 63. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.244 0.268 0.344 0.258 0.015 -0.130 -0.024 0.022 -0.063 PACF 0.383 0.114 0.169 0.219 0.052 -0.212 -0.267 -0.036 0.056 0.049 95% C.L. 0.252 0.287 0.300 0.314 0.337 0.350 0.350 0.353 0.353 0.353 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.159 0.384 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174607 0.84022200 2 550312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240592 0.82484144 3 550321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020836 0.87334424 4 550322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00290596 0.74065334 5 550331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122984 0.86429596 6 550332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019768 0.90328926 7 550341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216981 0.76103777 8 550342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124349 0.80300903 9 550351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228265 0.76681119 10 550352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093913 0.79280543 11 550361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208065 0.83249563 12 550362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055967 0.86449581 13 550371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00299065 0.75415820 14 550372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00424615 0.72234511 15 550381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00303076 0.71076626 16 550382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108228 0.77681738 17 550391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178883 0.78577399 18 550392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122699 0.80977637 19 550401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127679 0.84251130 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110518 0.84475112 21 550411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00185307 0.79723984 22 550412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00321719 0.76066667 23 550421 1 0.10580860 0.30847704 0.00000000 0.79966289 24 550422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200350 0.81143671 25 550431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00164592 0.70823979 26 550432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166963 0.70362449 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.082 0.317 2.665 0.078 0.342 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.094 -0.083 3.151 0.095 0.211 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.087 0.219 3.046 0.083 0.352 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.122 -0.410 4.319 0.099 0.525 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.095 -0.166 3.123 0.091 0.278 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.106 -0.035 2.429 0.081 0.463 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.103 -0.150 3.735 0.102 0.217 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.098 -0.109 2.862 0.084 0.471 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.126 0.223 3.101 0.113 0.356 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.128 0.250 3.213 0.120 0.322 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.090 0.077 3.054 0.094 0.111 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.116 0.627 2.578 0.098 0.384 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.087 0.253 3.504 0.096 0.020 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.092 0.038 4.229 0.091 0.250 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.123 0.416 3.035 0.110 0.421 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.137 0.096 2.848 0.113 0.519 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.085 0.094 3.542 0.087 0.217 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.097 -0.504 3.422 0.081 0.391 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.101 -0.015 2.482 0.105 0.201 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.106 -0.048 2.586 0.106 0.214 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.093 0.135 2.865 0.076 0.452 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.075 -0.024 3.002 0.069 0.310 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.095 0.059 2.776 0.101 0.190 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.094 0.118 2.353 0.107 -0.009 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.102 0.545 4.005 0.086 0.424 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.116 1.181 4.085 0.089 0.457 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.102 0.119 3.154 0.094 0.311 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.016 0.333 0.557 0.013 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.098 0.085 3.050 0.095 0.332 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.024 0.298 0.728 0.021 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.075 -0.504 2.353 0.069 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.092 -0.048 2.776 0.084 0.214 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.116 0.250 3.504 0.105 0.424 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.137 1.181 4.319 0.120 0.525 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550312 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550321 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550322 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550331 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550332 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550341 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550342 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550351 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550352 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550361 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550362 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550371 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550372 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550381 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550382 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550391 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550392 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550401 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550411 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550412 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550421 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550422 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550431 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550432 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.064 0.365 2.630 0.076 -0.071 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.999 0.083 0.010 2.625 0.093 0.088 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.078 -0.111 2.650 0.083 0.176 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.999 0.101 -0.107 4.779 0.099 0.275 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.087 -0.441 3.102 0.091 0.140 6 550332 1918 1979 62 0.999 0.087 -0.338 3.003 0.081 0.214 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.097 -0.305 3.636 0.101 0.135 8 550342 1928 1979 52 0.999 0.090 -0.116 2.807 0.084 0.367 9 550351 1931 1979 49 0.999 0.102 -0.300 3.661 0.112 0.066 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.999 0.106 -0.237 3.294 0.120 -0.001 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.086 -0.090 2.735 0.094 0.010 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.999 0.095 0.460 2.520 0.098 0.141 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.079 0.103 3.016 0.095 -0.162 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.086 -0.096 4.098 0.090 0.146 15 550381 1924 1979 56 0.999 0.114 0.233 2.792 0.109 0.336 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.999 0.122 -0.175 2.690 0.112 0.388 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.080 -0.198 3.249 0.087 0.129 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.081 -0.727 4.248 0.081 0.147 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.090 -0.180 2.180 0.105 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.098 -0.271 2.532 0.105 0.083 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.999 0.078 -0.199 3.116 0.076 0.222 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.071 -0.073 2.862 0.069 0.217 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.086 0.181 2.995 0.101 0.029 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.088 -0.112 2.361 0.107 -0.101 25 550431 1931 1979 49 0.999 0.082 -0.116 3.346 0.086 0.153 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.999 0.089 0.707 3.022 0.089 0.150 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.999 0.089 -0.082 3.075 0.094 0.127 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.013 0.293 0.604 0.013 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.087 -0.114 2.999 0.094 0.141 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.017 0.247 0.644 0.022 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.999 0.064 -0.727 2.180 0.069 -0.162 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.999 0.081 -0.237 2.650 0.084 0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.097 0.010 3.294 0.105 0.214 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.122 0.707 4.779 0.120 0.388 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.581 0.110 0.006 -0.386 3.296 0.217 0.894 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.217 SERIES 550332 AND 550422 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.894 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.067 0.162 2.852 0.071 0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.147 -0.036 0.091 22 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.86 1.01 1.08 1.94 9.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 -0.044 0.026 0.174 0.085 -0.208 -0.387 -0.178 -0.025 -0.106 PACF 0.142 -0.065 0.043 0.165 0.040 -0.220 -0.364 -0.182 -0.042 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.252 0.257 0.257 0.258 0.265 0.267 0.277 0.309 0.316 0.316 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.152 0.013 0.007 0.210 0.116 -0.263 -0.361 -0.149 -0.113 -0.111 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.152 2 0.154 -0.011 3 0.154 -0.012 0.007 4 0.152 -0.009 -0.026 0.213 5 0.140 -0.008 -0.025 0.204 0.056 6 0.158 0.055 -0.033 0.202 0.099 -0.310 7 0.056 0.088 0.033 0.191 0.117 -0.259 -0.326 8 0.014 0.054 0.048 0.216 0.122 -0.247 -0.319 -0.130 9 -0.004 0.009 0.013 0.233 0.152 -0.241 -0.312 -0.128 -0.141 10 -0.002 0.012 0.019 0.238 0.149 -0.245 -0.312 -0.128 -0.141 0.020 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 318.97 319.50 321.49 323.49 322.57 324.37 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 320.00 314.89 315.82 316.55 318.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 7 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.056 0.088 0.033 0.191 0.117 -0.259 -0.326 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 7) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.056 0.091 0.043 0.203 0.146 -0.207 -0.314 -0.029 -0.025 -.1033 -0.198 -0.058 0.117 0.083 -0.021 0.011 0.102 0.115 0.010 -.0459 0.001 0.034 -0.014 -0.068 -0.049 0.006 0.010 -0.024 -0.025 0.0143 0.035 0.013 -0.008 0.005 0.023 0.013 -0.011 -0.014 0.001 0.0050 -0.008 -0.015 -0.004 0.006 0.003 -0.005 -0.002 0.007 0.007 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550311 7 0.142 -0.162 -0.133 -0.070 -0.066 -0.153 -0.226 -0.290 2 550312 7 0.322 0.022 0.230 -0.385 -0.095 0.163 -0.279 -0.356 3 550321 7 0.275 0.151 0.051 0.057 -0.120 0.134 -0.081 -0.376 4 550322 7 0.226 0.285 -0.172 -0.007 -0.006 -0.258 0.077 -0.302 5 550331 7 0.230 0.076 0.078 0.097 0.204 0.175 -0.164 -0.224 6 550332 7 0.209 0.174 0.102 0.065 0.163 0.064 -0.215 -0.081 7 550341 7 0.244 0.080 0.221 -0.074 -0.052 0.243 -0.156 -0.371 8 550342 7 0.353 0.324 0.088 -0.120 0.273 0.036 -0.148 -0.265 9 550351 7 0.343 -0.025 0.075 0.112 0.204 0.215 -0.279 -0.352 10 550352 7 0.179 -0.042 0.093 0.018 0.069 0.182 -0.203 -0.314 11 550361 7 0.240 -0.014 -0.203 0.024 0.019 -0.079 -0.156 -0.162 12 550362 7 0.229 0.195 -0.295 0.272 -0.023 -0.051 -0.196 -0.159 13 550371 7 0.223 -0.226 -0.040 -0.017 0.120 0.059 -0.332 -0.221 14 550372 7 0.154 0.107 0.034 -0.013 0.148 -0.045 -0.204 -0.161 15 550381 7 0.293 0.217 0.079 0.051 0.233 -0.074 -0.254 -0.203 16 550382 7 0.249 0.340 -0.049 -0.172 -0.120 -0.054 -0.088 -0.151 17 550391 7 0.172 0.085 0.021 0.094 -0.004 0.072 -0.107 -0.355 18 550392 7 0.209 0.084 -0.087 -0.154 0.073 -0.104 -0.332 -0.124 19 550401 7 0.317 -0.068 -0.212 -0.146 -0.031 0.083 -0.307 -0.270 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550402 7 0.344 0.034 -0.216 -0.215 0.105 0.011 -0.236 -0.204 21 550411 7 0.187 0.212 -0.060 0.007 0.173 0.035 -0.072 -0.258 22 550412 7 0.301 0.144 -0.178 0.040 0.021 -0.150 -0.123 -0.406 23 550421 7 0.284 -0.018 0.054 -0.413 0.016 0.013 -0.381 -0.185 24 550422 7 0.284 -0.223 -0.043 -0.204 -0.035 -0.128 -0.341 -0.381 25 550431 7 0.214 0.146 0.115 -0.100 0.236 -0.110 -0.250 -0.016 26 550432 7 0.230 0.018 0.087 0.135 0.214 -0.021 -0.272 -0.300 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 7 0.248 0.074 -0.014 -0.043 0.066 0.010 -0.205 -0.249 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.059 0.150 0.139 0.156 0.120 0.127 0.103 0.102 MEDIAN 7 0.235 0.082 0.028 -0.010 0.045 0.012 -0.210 -0.261 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.084 0.192 0.220 0.203 0.204 0.162 0.131 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 7 0.142 -0.226 -0.295 -0.413 -0.120 -0.258 -0.381 -0.406 LOWER HINGE 7 0.209 -0.018 -0.133 -0.146 -0.031 -0.079 -0.279 -0.352 UPPER HINGE 7 0.293 0.174 0.087 0.057 0.173 0.083 -0.148 -0.162 MAXIMUM VALUE 7 0.353 0.340 0.230 0.272 0.273 0.243 0.077 -0.016 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.059 0.828 4.063 0.069 0.003 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.068 0.293 3.774 0.079 -0.048 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.068 -0.189 2.578 0.084 -0.090 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.088 0.085 3.105 0.102 -0.033 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.079 0.202 2.670 0.094 -0.062 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.081 -0.843 4.222 0.086 -0.023 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.084 0.063 3.798 0.097 -0.049 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.073 -0.015 3.514 0.086 -0.061 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.084 -0.586 4.096 0.101 -0.109 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.095 -0.096 3.588 0.110 -0.035 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.081 -0.361 2.800 0.093 -0.058 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.084 0.255 2.863 0.089 -0.029 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.070 0.365 3.889 0.080 -0.030 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.080 -0.313 4.673 0.090 -0.030 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.096 0.362 3.825 0.112 -0.033 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.105 0.420 2.795 0.121 -0.016 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.073 -0.640 4.180 0.084 -0.002 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.071 -0.347 3.238 0.082 -0.017 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.074 0.499 3.457 0.083 0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.080 0.060 3.556 0.088 0.029 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.070 0.139 3.078 0.076 0.022 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.059 0.324 3.812 0.066 -0.077 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.073 0.283 3.250 0.088 -0.023 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.075 0.063 2.431 0.091 -0.056 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.074 0.025 3.689 0.086 -0.014 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.077 0.186 3.209 0.088 -0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.078 0.041 3.467 0.089 -0.032 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.011 0.382 0.573 0.013 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.076 0.074 3.535 0.088 -0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.013 0.483 0.746 0.011 0.039 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.059 -0.843 2.431 0.066 -0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.071 -0.189 3.078 0.083 -0.056 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.084 0.293 3.825 0.094 -0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.105 0.828 4.673 0.121 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.498 0.115 0.006 -0.088 3.125 0.213 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.213 SERIES 550341 AND 550362 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.055 0.444 3.881 0.065 -0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.008 -0.002 0.054 15 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.48 1.01 1.06 1.54 21.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.068 -0.015 0.083 0.046 0.025 -0.007 -0.101 -0.160 -0.044 -0.055 PACF -0.068 -0.019 0.081 0.058 0.035 -0.009 -0.111 -0.189 -0.083 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.252 0.253 0.253 0.255 0.255 0.256 0.256 0.258 0.264 0.265 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.023 -0.010 -0.002 -0.023 0.021 0.015 0.021 -0.162 -0.082 -0.079 PACF -0.023 -0.011 -0.002 -0.024 0.020 0.016 0.022 -0.162 -0.091 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.253 0.259 0.261 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.032 -0.024 -0.011 -0.002 -0.023 0.021 0.017 0.022 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.066 0.171 2.767 0.068 0.213 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.210 0.053 0.031 0.228 0.129 -0.284 -0.387 -0.205 -0.094 -0.185 PACF 0.210 0.010 0.019 0.227 0.040 -0.364 -0.340 -0.153 -0.069 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.252 0.263 0.264 0.264 0.276 0.280 0.297 0.328 0.336 0.338 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.044 0.210 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES