RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT165P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT165P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 667 1 Balmberg SO, feucht LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 667 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1180 4715-732 1876 1982 - 667 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 667041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 667092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 667011 1897 1982 86 1.970 0.497 0.045 2.669 0.276 0.201 2 667012 1895 1982 88 2.058 0.568 0.127 3.614 0.266 0.288 3 667021 1900 1982 83 2.490 0.700 -0.262 3.662 0.283 0.292 4 667022 1893 1982 90 2.172 0.613 0.005 3.186 0.301 0.125 5 667031 1885 1982 98 2.657 0.844 0.393 2.555 0.277 0.447 6 667032 1905 1982 78 2.463 0.795 0.771 2.945 0.212 0.699 7 667041 1888 1982 95 2.478 0.721 0.652 3.070 0.189 0.692 8 667042 1899 1982 84 2.471 0.617 0.465 2.927 0.233 0.344 9 667051 1885 1982 98 2.164 0.616 0.054 2.643 0.266 0.344 10 667052 1902 1982 81 2.396 0.592 -0.009 3.936 0.271 0.132 11 667062 1902 1982 81 2.100 0.607 0.919 4.971 0.284 0.073 12 667071 1876 1982 107 3.232 1.286 0.229 2.766 0.180 0.845 13 667072 1882 1982 101 2.707 0.716 1.083 5.183 0.198 0.449 14 667081 1930 1982 53 3.646 0.563 -0.301 3.205 0.163 0.195 15 667082 1877 1982 106 2.386 0.602 1.298 8.211 0.227 0.306 16 667091 1886 1982 97 2.288 0.633 0.371 2.834 0.263 0.350 17 667092 1903 1982 80 2.558 0.912 1.848 9.995 0.284 0.434 18 667101 1893 1982 90 2.253 0.412 0.654 3.571 0.169 0.322 19 667102 1917 1982 66 2.216 0.505 0.450 2.705 0.213 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 667111 1916 1982 67 2.396 0.480 -0.024 2.369 0.185 0.360 21 667112 1905 1982 78 2.116 0.477 0.514 2.865 0.209 0.304 22 667121 1893 1982 90 2.537 0.654 0.360 2.808 0.203 0.558 23 667122 1904 1982 79 2.522 0.792 1.407 6.625 0.218 0.515 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1876 TO 1982 107 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 86 2.447 0.661 0.480 3.883 0.233 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.375 0.184 0.547 1.944 0.043 0.191 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 2.396 0.616 0.393 3.070 0.227 0.344 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.336 0.153 0.663 1.012 0.073 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 53 1.970 0.412 -0.301 2.369 0.163 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 2.194 0.566 0.049 2.787 0.200 0.290 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 95 2.529 0.719 0.713 3.799 0.273 0.448 MAXIMUM VALUE 107 3.646 1.286 1.848 9.995 0.301 0.845 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.274 0.204 0.013 -0.539 3.125 -0.360 0.692 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.360 SERIES 667032 AND 667122 78 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.692 SERIES 667051 AND 667052 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 190. 253. RBAR 0.310 0.279 SDEV 0.242 0.192 SERR 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.908 0.899 NSS 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1982 107 2.247 0.472 -0.414 3.146 0.165 0.495 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.611 0.253 -0.016 48 59 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.16 1.03 1.23 2.39 6.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 86. 16. 53. 80. 96. 107. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.491 0.483 0.338 0.385 0.367 0.344 0.337 0.302 0.340 0.289 PACF 0.491 0.318 0.029 0.165 0.132 0.046 0.073 0.027 0.097 0.007 95% C.L. 0.193 0.235 0.270 0.285 0.304 0.320 0.334 0.346 0.356 0.368 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.354 0.336 0.347 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 667011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273560 1.85053623 2 667012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00813779 1.69605017 3 667021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01093153 2.03111672 4 667022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00521340 2.40887642 5 667031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01926949 1.70330322 6 667032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02595556 1.43808854 7 667041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01152063 1.92825985 8 667042 1 1.56700063 0.18986656 0.00000000 2.38173318 9 667051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01196692 1.57151484 10 667052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00686856 2.11480856 11 667062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01045506 1.67134261 12 667071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02078538 2.10992599 13 667072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01095352 2.14790487 14 667081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00691421 3.45954275 15 667082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00896027 1.90666306 16 667091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178690 2.20058632 17 667092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01968850 1.75918663 18 667101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00514335 2.48713350 19 667102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00224716 2.29088569 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 667111 1 1.34711516 0.17354926 0.00000000 2.28958273 21 667112 1 0.39058390 0.01795943 0.00000000 1.90727746 22 667121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00314673 2.39371276 23 667122 1 2.07891750 0.03997811 0.00000000 1.90377617 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 667011 1897 1982 86 1.000 0.251 0.098 2.795 0.273 0.187 2 667012 1895 1982 88 0.999 0.265 0.443 4.296 0.263 0.235 3 667021 1900 1982 83 0.999 0.261 -0.549 3.871 0.279 0.153 4 667022 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.275 -0.023 3.200 0.298 0.072 5 667031 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.241 0.232 2.862 0.274 0.116 6 667032 1905 1982 78 1.004 0.219 0.496 3.452 0.210 0.291 7 667041 1888 1982 95 0.999 0.256 0.581 3.060 0.186 0.601 8 667042 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.227 -0.006 2.425 0.230 0.300 9 667051 1885 1982 98 0.999 0.248 0.530 3.005 0.263 0.057 10 667052 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.239 -0.041 4.001 0.268 0.028 11 667062 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.256 0.408 3.386 0.280 -0.091 12 667071 1876 1982 107 0.990 0.355 0.790 3.158 0.178 0.804 13 667072 1882 1982 101 1.000 0.233 1.033 4.857 0.196 0.318 14 667081 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.153 -0.119 3.130 0.160 0.159 15 667082 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.220 0.957 5.887 0.225 0.135 16 667091 1886 1982 97 1.000 0.276 0.372 2.839 0.260 0.344 17 667092 1903 1982 80 0.999 0.291 1.205 5.427 0.278 0.237 18 667101 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.171 0.538 3.514 0.167 0.223 19 667102 1917 1982 66 1.000 0.227 0.422 2.648 0.210 0.320 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 667111 1916 1982 67 1.000 0.178 -0.238 2.272 0.184 0.175 21 667112 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.221 0.427 2.747 0.207 0.277 22 667121 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.255 0.308 2.656 0.200 0.540 23 667122 1904 1982 79 1.000 0.226 0.692 3.758 0.213 0.228 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 86 0.999 0.241 0.372 3.445 0.231 0.248 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.002 0.042 0.421 0.931 0.042 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.241 0.422 3.158 0.225 0.228 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.035 0.513 0.997 0.072 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.990 0.153 -0.549 2.272 0.160 -0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.224 0.046 2.817 0.198 0.144 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.259 0.559 3.814 0.270 0.309 MAXIMUM VALUE 107 1.004 0.355 1.205 5.887 0.298 0.804 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 667011 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 667012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 667021 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 667022 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 667031 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 667032 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 667041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 667042 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 667051 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 667052 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 667062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 667071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 667072 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 667081 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 667082 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 667091 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 667092 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 667101 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 667102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 667111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 667112 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 667121 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 667122 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 667011 1897 1982 86 0.999 0.238 0.003 2.957 0.273 0.087 2 667012 1895 1982 88 0.998 0.238 0.331 3.565 0.262 0.063 3 667021 1900 1982 83 0.999 0.251 -0.659 4.255 0.279 0.080 4 667022 1893 1982 90 0.999 0.255 -0.047 3.590 0.297 -0.073 5 667031 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.239 0.228 2.786 0.274 0.100 6 667032 1905 1982 78 0.999 0.197 0.387 3.338 0.209 0.134 7 667041 1888 1982 95 0.995 0.203 0.143 2.636 0.186 0.383 8 667042 1899 1982 84 0.998 0.215 -0.040 2.415 0.230 0.204 9 667051 1885 1982 98 0.999 0.237 0.557 2.970 0.262 -0.016 10 667052 1902 1982 81 0.999 0.233 -0.045 4.037 0.268 -0.052 11 667062 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.255 0.597 4.011 0.280 -0.119 12 667071 1876 1982 107 0.996 0.196 0.195 3.064 0.177 0.415 13 667072 1882 1982 101 0.998 0.215 1.087 5.795 0.196 0.234 14 667081 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.144 0.058 3.919 0.159 0.023 15 667082 1877 1982 106 0.999 0.213 0.834 5.297 0.225 0.081 16 667091 1886 1982 97 0.999 0.247 0.395 2.673 0.260 0.136 17 667092 1903 1982 80 0.998 0.275 1.195 5.055 0.278 0.115 18 667101 1893 1982 90 0.999 0.161 0.419 3.129 0.167 0.151 19 667102 1917 1982 66 0.998 0.202 0.347 2.745 0.211 0.153 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 667111 1916 1982 67 0.999 0.168 -0.161 2.283 0.184 0.050 21 667112 1905 1982 78 0.999 0.212 0.421 2.863 0.206 0.233 22 667121 1893 1982 90 0.997 0.227 0.322 2.818 0.200 0.433 23 667122 1904 1982 79 0.998 0.208 0.557 3.758 0.213 0.108 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 86 0.998 0.219 0.310 3.476 0.230 0.127 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.001 0.032 0.407 0.935 0.042 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 0.999 0.215 0.331 3.129 0.225 0.108 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.001 0.036 0.459 1.164 0.072 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.995 0.144 -0.659 2.283 0.159 -0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.203 0.030 2.802 0.198 0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.999 0.238 0.489 3.965 0.270 0.178 MAXIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.275 1.195 5.795 0.297 0.433 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.311 0.145 0.009 -0.226 3.212 -0.145 0.672 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.145 SERIES 667071 AND 667122 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.672 SERIES 667052 AND 667082 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 190. 253. RBAR 0.325 0.309 SDEV 0.182 0.163 SERR 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.914 0.912 NSS 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1982 107 0.990 0.130 -0.170 2.630 0.152 -0.005 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.218 0.118 0.063 31 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.25 1.00 1.12 1.37 8.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.078 -0.232 -0.059 -0.099 -0.030 0.035 0.057 0.073 -0.026 PACF -0.005 0.078 -0.233 -0.067 -0.066 -0.080 0.018 0.025 0.038 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.193 0.193 0.195 0.205 0.205 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.209 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.005 0.088 -0.224 -0.059 -0.050 -0.030 -0.028 0.003 0.104 0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.005 2 -0.005 0.088 3 0.015 0.086 -0.224 4 0.000 0.092 -0.223 -0.068 5 -0.001 0.090 -0.222 -0.068 -0.011 6 -0.002 0.085 -0.239 -0.061 -0.011 -0.073 7 -0.006 0.084 -0.242 -0.075 -0.006 -0.073 -0.055 8 -0.006 0.084 -0.242 -0.075 -0.008 -0.073 -0.055 -0.006 9 -0.006 0.089 -0.236 -0.074 -0.001 -0.051 -0.063 -0.006 0.090 10 -0.004 0.089 -0.237 -0.075 -0.001 -0.052 -0.066 -0.005 0.090 -0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 701.52 703.52 704.69 701.16 702.67 704.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 706.08 707.75 709.75 710.89 712.86 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.015 0.086 -0.224 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.77 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.12 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.015 0.087 -0.222 0.001 -0.039 0.049 -0.003 0.013 -0.011 0.0016 -0.004 0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 667011 3 0.045 0.087 -0.162 -0.091 2 667012 3 0.050 0.044 0.165 0.056 3 667021 3 0.026 0.081 -0.023 -0.043 4 667022 3 0.037 -0.073 0.009 0.074 5 667031 3 0.032 0.102 0.077 -0.120 6 667032 3 0.078 0.134 0.153 -0.130 7 667041 3 0.206 0.352 0.231 -0.191 8 667042 3 0.085 0.205 0.054 -0.211 9 667051 3 0.099 0.035 0.217 -0.219 10 667052 3 0.085 -0.040 0.023 -0.285 11 667062 3 0.029 -0.135 -0.069 -0.104 12 667071 3 0.178 0.397 0.050 -0.003 13 667072 3 0.100 0.232 0.089 -0.187 14 667081 3 0.036 0.030 -0.101 0.046 15 667082 3 0.047 0.080 0.000 -0.200 16 667091 3 0.065 0.138 0.100 -0.156 17 667092 3 0.031 0.118 0.055 -0.125 18 667101 3 0.044 0.152 0.037 -0.144 19 667102 3 0.051 0.153 -0.004 -0.150 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 667111 3 0.076 0.071 0.121 -0.242 21 667112 3 0.086 0.220 0.157 -0.121 22 667121 3 0.230 0.400 0.125 -0.068 23 667122 3 0.087 0.118 0.235 -0.147 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.078 0.126 0.067 -0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.056 0.134 0.103 0.095 MEDIAN 3 0.065 0.118 0.055 -0.130 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.046 0.122 0.134 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.026 -0.135 -0.162 -0.285 LOWER HINGE 3 0.041 0.058 0.004 -0.189 UPPER HINGE 3 0.086 0.179 0.139 -0.080 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.230 0.400 0.235 0.074 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 667011 1897 1982 86 1.000 0.232 -0.153 2.788 0.273 -0.001 2 667012 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.234 0.414 3.535 0.262 0.008 3 667021 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.250 -0.630 4.206 0.289 -0.005 4 667022 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.254 -0.029 3.483 0.284 0.012 5 667031 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.235 0.302 2.785 0.275 0.007 6 667032 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.192 0.245 3.152 0.218 0.021 7 667041 1888 1982 95 1.000 0.181 0.065 2.377 0.204 0.011 8 667042 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.205 -0.035 2.296 0.242 -0.006 9 667051 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.226 0.256 2.764 0.264 -0.015 10 667052 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.222 0.056 3.264 0.258 0.001 11 667062 1902 1982 81 1.000 0.251 0.574 4.013 0.260 0.006 12 667071 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.177 0.060 2.906 0.208 -0.001 13 667072 1882 1982 101 1.000 0.205 1.054 5.828 0.219 -0.018 14 667081 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.143 0.008 3.523 0.162 0.007 15 667082 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.208 0.793 5.313 0.224 0.014 16 667091 1886 1982 97 1.000 0.240 0.226 2.669 0.282 -0.020 17 667092 1903 1982 80 1.000 0.270 1.115 4.452 0.285 0.001 18 667101 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.157 0.601 3.446 0.175 -0.003 19 667102 1917 1982 66 1.000 0.198 0.239 2.844 0.223 0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 667111 1916 1982 67 1.000 0.162 -0.272 2.189 0.180 0.018 21 667112 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.203 0.478 2.937 0.220 -0.001 22 667121 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.203 0.384 2.782 0.235 -0.013 23 667122 1904 1982 79 1.000 0.198 0.661 3.728 0.212 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 86 1.000 0.211 0.279 3.360 0.237 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.033 0.410 0.916 0.038 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.205 0.245 3.152 0.235 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.040 0.493 0.848 0.053 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 53 1.000 0.143 -0.630 2.189 0.162 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.195 0.032 2.784 0.215 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.234 0.526 3.631 0.268 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.270 1.115 5.828 0.289 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.313 0.124 0.008 -0.028 2.914 -0.028 0.621 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.028 SERIES 667101 AND 667122 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.621 SERIES 667051 AND 667052 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.41 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 190. 253. RBAR 0.332 0.322 SDEV 0.156 0.146 SERR 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.916 0.916 NSS 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1982 107 0.993 0.125 -0.138 2.487 0.152 -0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.192 0.106 0.070 31 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.32 1.01 1.06 1.37 26.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.102 0.020 -0.142 -0.042 -0.048 -0.046 0.029 0.016 0.092 -0.036 PACF -0.102 0.009 -0.140 -0.072 -0.060 -0.081 -0.003 -0.001 0.072 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.193 0.195 0.195 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.202 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.008 -0.019 -0.077 -0.054 -0.054 0.015 -0.005 0.089 -0.064 PACF -0.010 -0.008 -0.019 -0.077 -0.056 -0.057 0.009 -0.014 0.080 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.193 0.193 0.193 0.193 0.195 0.195 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.197 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.007 -0.011 -0.008 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1982 107 0.993 0.127 -0.139 2.529 0.147 0.005 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.083 -0.222 -0.080 -0.099 -0.030 0.036 0.052 0.080 -0.025 PACF 0.005 0.083 -0.224 -0.085 -0.064 -0.070 0.013 0.018 0.045 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.193 0.193 0.195 0.204 0.205 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.209 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES