RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.368 0.459 0.191 2.903 0.190 0.737 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.404 0.619 0.745 2.917 0.187 0.833 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.971 0.339 -0.169 3.327 0.194 0.763 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.974 0.419 0.257 2.897 0.184 0.827 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.915 0.267 0.055 2.610 0.187 0.661 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.893 0.316 -0.219 2.905 0.193 0.780 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.847 0.326 -0.182 3.220 0.183 0.788 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.907 0.265 0.268 2.988 0.182 0.737 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.413 0.568 0.436 2.254 0.174 0.840 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.227 0.700 1.299 4.132 0.215 0.878 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.513 0.532 1.352 5.779 0.166 0.734 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.609 0.472 0.692 3.195 0.194 0.638 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.341 0.659 0.325 2.517 0.215 0.872 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.250 0.497 0.156 2.289 0.219 0.776 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.566 0.207 1.058 5.354 0.223 0.691 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.539 0.276 0.904 3.615 0.247 0.838 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.713 0.374 0.514 3.144 0.187 0.477 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.569 0.356 0.083 3.961 0.178 0.569 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.393 0.541 0.421 3.299 0.224 0.649 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.507 0.511 0.567 3.387 0.216 0.666 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.043 0.545 1.660 5.420 0.157 0.908 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.173 0.661 1.037 3.838 0.171 0.876 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.550 0.505 0.645 3.077 0.138 0.806 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.673 0.502 0.115 2.353 0.139 0.807 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.223 0.455 0.509 3.391 0.190 0.756 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.338 0.139 0.507 0.958 0.027 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 1.296 0.485 0.429 3.170 0.187 0.778 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.567 0.210 0.689 0.827 0.039 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.539 0.207 -0.219 2.254 0.138 0.477 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.943 0.332 0.136 2.900 0.176 0.679 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.510 0.543 0.825 3.726 0.215 0.836 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.713 0.700 1.660 5.779 0.247 0.908 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.366 0.331 0.020 -0.705 2.860 -0.564 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.564 SERIES 755041 AND 755052 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.649 0.554 0.497 0.361 0.239 0.284 0.295 0.397 0.459 0.519 SDEV 0.000 0.184 0.230 0.200 0.297 0.233 0.257 0.265 0.201 0.353 SERR 0.000 0.106 0.073 0.063 0.037 0.020 0.022 0.017 0.012 0.021 EPS 0.858 0.846 0.861 0.866 0.836 0.885 0.904 0.940 0.953 0.963 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.395 SDEV 0.219 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.940 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.009 0.349 0.120 2.784 0.169 0.799 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.810 0.755 -0.345 18 424 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.12 1.00 1.04 1.16 2.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.798 0.706 0.649 0.619 0.587 0.556 0.563 0.563 0.533 0.513 PACF 0.798 0.193 0.117 0.114 0.058 0.038 0.131 0.077 -0.018 0.023 95% C.L. 0.095 0.143 0.172 0.193 0.210 0.224 0.237 0.248 0.260 0.269 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.669 0.594 0.105 0.052 0.129 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00602049 1.99745822 2 755012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00759262 2.25800920 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00557172 1.41358459 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00613461 1.61740983 5 755031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044337 0.96351975 6 755032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221670 1.13242733 7 755041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00319144 0.49118137 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017249 0.89006484 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00737571 2.24669909 10 755052 1 2.38393927 0.00776229 0.00000000 0.20661019 11 755061 1 1.72476041 0.01258003 0.00000000 0.62846899 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00637463 2.10286474 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00598367 0.75198585 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00295819 0.93772066 15 755081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052617 0.68301690 16 755082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237826 0.91945523 17 755091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00227522 1.88583052 18 755092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121562 1.66507840 19 755101 1 1.09679699 0.03808726 0.00000000 1.21233106 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 1 0.79465765 0.01523074 0.00000000 1.19112754 21 755111 1 1.94525170 0.01487352 0.00000000 0.61626536 22 755112 1 2.36895943 0.00809925 0.00000000 0.24079959 23 755121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00652472 2.19278646 24 755122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00633756 2.32938385 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.998 0.217 0.110 3.497 0.189 0.404 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.010 0.271 0.442 3.895 0.186 0.573 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.993 0.254 -0.386 5.340 0.193 0.594 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.991 0.222 -0.187 4.867 0.186 0.474 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.291 0.040 2.605 0.186 0.654 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.326 -0.319 3.447 0.192 0.723 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.990 0.317 -0.232 2.465 0.182 0.724 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.292 0.254 2.931 0.181 0.733 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.005 0.220 0.244 2.998 0.173 0.525 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.005 0.269 0.232 3.245 0.215 0.580 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.225 0.707 3.893 0.164 0.551 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.225 0.597 3.483 0.193 0.441 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.991 0.449 0.813 3.334 0.214 0.820 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.395 0.716 4.077 0.217 0.749 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.332 0.697 4.385 0.223 0.634 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.034 0.434 2.381 11.548 0.246 0.663 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.208 0.370 3.124 0.186 0.422 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.224 0.049 3.884 0.176 0.557 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.350 0.264 3.655 0.223 0.632 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.313 0.489 3.560 0.215 0.602 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.208 0.376 3.251 0.157 0.520 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.001 0.264 0.883 4.602 0.171 0.656 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.002 0.223 0.786 4.225 0.138 0.615 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.210 0.421 4.126 0.139 0.575 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.001 0.281 0.406 4.018 0.189 0.601 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.008 0.072 0.556 1.745 0.026 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.267 0.373 3.607 0.186 0.598 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.001 0.099 0.622 0.927 0.039 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.990 0.208 -0.386 2.465 0.138 0.404 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.999 0.222 0.080 3.248 0.175 0.538 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.001 0.321 0.702 4.175 0.214 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.034 0.449 2.381 11.548 0.246 0.820 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.215 0.176 3.790 0.189 0.379 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.997 0.238 0.378 3.557 0.186 0.485 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.996 0.231 -0.308 5.385 0.192 0.488 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.997 0.204 -0.167 4.242 0.186 0.367 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.994 0.260 0.112 3.231 0.186 0.567 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.992 0.294 -0.414 3.995 0.192 0.673 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.994 0.251 0.286 3.763 0.183 0.549 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.996 0.252 0.415 3.009 0.181 0.647 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.999 0.206 0.281 2.955 0.173 0.479 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.998 0.249 0.153 3.246 0.214 0.520 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.998 0.210 0.582 3.721 0.164 0.496 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.212 0.505 3.409 0.193 0.360 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.975 0.329 0.568 3.282 0.214 0.672 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.980 0.277 0.010 3.039 0.218 0.536 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.998 0.322 0.663 4.289 0.223 0.616 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.995 0.287 0.529 3.833 0.246 0.443 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.999 0.185 0.288 3.021 0.186 0.269 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.998 0.194 -0.015 4.128 0.176 0.377 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.990 0.297 0.001 3.937 0.223 0.530 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.994 0.281 0.276 3.372 0.215 0.534 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.204 0.339 3.178 0.157 0.502 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.997 0.253 1.107 5.356 0.171 0.631 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.205 1.000 5.015 0.138 0.565 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.998 0.195 0.480 3.929 0.139 0.525 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.995 0.244 0.302 3.779 0.189 0.509 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.006 0.042 0.362 0.699 0.026 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 0.997 0.243 0.287 3.742 0.186 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.004 0.073 0.456 0.823 0.039 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.975 0.185 -0.414 2.955 0.138 0.269 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.994 0.205 0.061 3.239 0.175 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 0.998 0.279 0.517 4.062 0.214 0.566 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.329 1.107 5.385 0.246 0.673 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.402 0.134 0.008 0.061 3.635 -0.030 0.844 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.844 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.694 0.514 0.437 0.234 0.290 0.303 0.324 0.436 0.505 0.522 SDEV 0.000 0.196 0.178 0.232 0.186 0.178 0.231 0.201 0.190 0.250 SERR 0.000 0.113 0.056 0.073 0.023 0.015 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.881 0.824 0.829 0.778 0.869 0.894 0.915 0.948 0.961 0.963 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.503 SDEV 0.163 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.961 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.245 0.718 5.023 0.183 0.533 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.006 0.003 0.131 91 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.49 1.00 1.08 1.57 3.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.531 0.344 0.226 0.108 0.058 0.021 0.028 0.029 -0.021 -0.005 PACF 0.531 0.086 0.019 -0.052 0.000 -0.011 0.033 0.010 -0.063 0.024 95% C.L. 0.095 0.119 0.128 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.289 0.485 0.089 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.372 0.271 0.175 0.099 0.051 0.098 0.092 0.029 -0.006 0.048 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.372 2 0.315 0.154 3 0.309 0.142 0.038 4 0.309 0.143 0.041 -0.009 5 0.309 0.144 0.043 -0.005 -0.014 6 0.310 0.144 0.040 -0.016 -0.039 0.080 7 0.307 0.146 0.040 -0.018 -0.045 0.068 0.040 8 0.309 0.149 0.038 -0.019 -0.043 0.075 0.055 -0.047 9 0.307 0.152 0.041 -0.021 -0.044 0.076 0.062 -0.034 -0.045 10 0.310 0.154 0.037 -0.026 -0.041 0.078 0.059 -0.043 -0.064 0.064 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3476.81 3413.00 3404.39 3405.75 3407.72 3409.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3408.77 3410.04 3411.05 3412.17 3412.38 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.315 0.154 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.87 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.315 0.253 0.128 0.079 0.045 0.026 0.015 0.009 0.005 0.0030 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 2 0.224 0.345 0.101 2 755012 2 0.273 0.412 0.155 3 755021 2 0.290 0.399 0.211 4 755022 2 0.155 0.341 0.096 5 755031 2 0.353 0.468 0.178 6 755032 2 0.472 0.553 0.179 7 755041 2 0.319 0.505 0.084 8 755042 2 0.424 0.618 0.048 9 755051 2 0.252 0.407 0.151 10 755052 2 0.290 0.439 0.157 11 755061 2 0.287 0.435 0.158 12 755062 2 0.186 0.276 0.236 13 755071 2 0.493 0.551 0.198 14 755072 2 0.298 0.484 0.102 15 755081 2 0.384 0.570 0.076 16 755082 2 0.240 0.360 0.204 17 755091 2 0.083 0.260 0.048 18 755092 2 0.156 0.356 0.059 19 755101 2 0.364 0.371 0.312 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 2 0.333 0.423 0.220 21 755111 2 0.279 0.494 0.021 22 755112 2 0.442 0.507 0.200 23 755121 2 0.322 0.554 0.021 24 755122 2 0.295 0.495 0.060 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.301 0.443 0.136 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.094 0.077 MEDIAN 2 0.293 0.437 0.153 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.112 0.141 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.083 0.260 0.021 LOWER HINGE 2 0.246 0.365 0.068 UPPER HINGE 2 0.358 0.506 0.199 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.493 0.618 0.312 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.197 0.193 3.641 0.221 -0.027 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.205 0.181 3.522 0.225 -0.023 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.195 0.170 4.219 0.210 0.031 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.188 -0.135 3.693 0.220 0.017 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.210 0.457 4.013 0.231 -0.020 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.214 0.180 3.351 0.235 0.009 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.209 0.320 5.233 0.224 -0.008 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.191 -0.258 3.430 0.231 0.004 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.179 0.159 3.207 0.211 -0.012 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.210 -0.185 2.908 0.254 -0.007 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.176 0.364 3.468 0.199 -0.025 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.192 0.353 3.635 0.219 -0.021 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.232 -0.197 4.369 0.265 -0.021 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.232 -0.126 3.079 0.270 -0.002 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.253 0.628 4.114 0.280 -0.002 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.251 0.298 3.790 0.284 -0.002 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.178 0.155 2.917 0.212 0.005 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.179 -0.164 4.309 0.203 0.004 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.238 0.268 4.909 0.272 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.229 0.065 4.070 0.263 -0.023 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.176 0.301 3.356 0.195 -0.006 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.192 0.142 3.302 0.218 -0.035 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.169 1.095 6.611 0.176 -0.001 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.165 0.509 4.893 0.173 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.202 0.199 3.918 0.229 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.026 0.304 0.847 0.031 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.196 0.181 3.667 0.223 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.042 0.367 0.910 0.049 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.165 -0.258 2.908 0.173 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.179 -0.030 3.353 0.210 -0.021 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.221 0.337 4.264 0.259 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.253 1.095 6.611 0.284 0.031 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.497 0.094 0.006 0.709 4.054 0.298 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.298 SERIES 755072 AND 755112 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.653 0.611 0.547 0.385 0.393 0.373 0.405 0.524 0.550 0.501 SDEV 0.000 0.121 0.122 0.153 0.155 0.164 0.174 0.148 0.116 0.135 SERR 0.000 0.070 0.039 0.048 0.019 0.014 0.015 0.009 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.861 0.875 0.883 0.878 0.913 0.920 0.939 0.963 0.967 0.960 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.596 SDEV 0.105 SERR 0.006 EPS 0.973 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.194 0.639 5.227 0.212 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.025 0.010 0.088 73 369 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.49 1.00 1.04 1.54 6.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.036 0.029 -0.036 -0.021 -0.045 0.000 0.032 -0.030 0.037 PACF 0.004 -0.036 0.029 -0.038 -0.018 -0.048 0.001 0.028 -0.029 0.036 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 0.028 -0.039 -0.019 -0.045 -0.002 0.032 -0.033 0.039 PACF 0.001 -0.001 0.028 -0.039 -0.019 -0.046 0.001 0.032 -0.032 0.036 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.212 0.866 5.388 0.183 0.373 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.372 0.265 0.145 0.038 0.008 -0.026 -0.008 0.012 -0.033 0.002 PACF 0.372 0.146 0.008 -0.057 -0.014 -0.023 0.018 0.026 -0.049 0.019 95% C.L. 0.095 0.108 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.158 0.317 0.148 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES