RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 3.302 0.262 2.581 16.291 0.046 0.628 2 755012 1760 1983 224 3.495 0.253 -0.100 2.830 0.046 0.671 3 755021 1826 1983 158 3.339 0.210 0.454 4.859 0.049 0.409 4 755022 1774 1983 210 3.513 0.274 0.320 2.414 0.048 0.713 5 755031 1765 1983 219 3.616 0.317 1.812 8.333 0.049 0.629 6 755032 1769 1983 215 3.436 0.255 0.932 4.086 0.043 0.690 7 755041 1762 1983 222 3.429 0.347 0.585 3.200 0.046 0.811 8 755042 1784 1983 200 3.319 0.249 0.155 4.327 0.041 0.732 9 755051 1759 1983 225 2.810 0.199 1.061 4.345 0.039 0.723 10 755052 1724 1983 260 2.820 0.200 0.041 2.413 0.036 0.787 11 755061 1864 1983 120 2.894 0.186 0.471 2.856 0.047 0.565 12 755062 1830 1983 154 3.135 0.181 0.305 3.621 0.038 0.661 13 755071 1788 1983 196 3.498 0.252 1.110 6.551 0.045 0.584 14 755072 1774 1983 210 3.839 0.357 0.437 2.674 0.048 0.745 15 755081 1542 1983 442 3.494 0.325 0.347 2.823 0.045 0.763 16 755082 1665 1983 319 3.455 0.344 0.937 3.570 0.051 0.746 17 755091 1833 1983 151 3.379 0.222 0.698 3.881 0.035 0.734 18 755092 1827 1983 157 3.414 0.297 2.210 11.041 0.040 0.719 19 755101 1828 1983 156 3.228 0.170 0.741 4.459 0.042 0.496 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 3.280 0.193 0.940 3.636 0.040 0.657 21 755111 1683 1983 301 3.006 0.156 -0.062 3.003 0.040 0.503 22 755112 1704 1983 280 2.958 0.175 0.076 2.872 0.041 0.596 23 755121 1788 1983 196 2.695 0.236 0.173 2.380 0.041 0.830 24 755122 1778 1983 206 2.611 0.134 0.304 3.675 0.041 0.483 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 3.249 0.241 0.689 4.589 0.043 0.661 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.315 0.064 0.689 3.202 0.004 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 3.329 0.242 0.462 3.629 0.043 0.680 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.492 0.096 0.700 1.559 0.007 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 120 2.611 0.134 -0.100 2.380 0.035 0.409 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 2.982 0.189 0.238 2.843 0.040 0.590 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 3.474 0.286 0.938 4.402 0.047 0.740 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 3.839 0.357 2.581 16.291 0.051 0.830 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.358 0.211 0.013 -0.784 3.254 -0.367 0.757 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 755082 AND 755121 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.757 SERIES 755072 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.295 0.296 0.408 0.396 0.125 0.168 0.362 0.318 0.363 0.451 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.118 0.121 0.306 0.243 0.175 0.231 0.226 0.184 SERR 0.000 0.141 0.037 0.038 0.038 0.021 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.578 0.651 0.811 0.882 0.699 0.796 0.928 0.917 0.932 0.952 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.414 SDEV 0.204 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.944 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 3.436 0.325 0.658 2.410 0.035 0.875 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.397 -0.253 1.137 21 421 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.19 1.00 1.04 1.23 4.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.873 0.830 0.839 0.828 0.798 0.784 0.778 0.770 0.757 0.756 PACF 0.873 0.288 0.330 0.151 0.027 0.040 0.049 0.056 0.033 0.072 95% C.L. 0.095 0.151 0.188 0.219 0.246 0.268 0.288 0.307 0.324 0.339 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.814 0.456 0.077 0.253 0.164 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 1 1.89870811 0.18229663 0.00000000 3.25637054 2 755012 1 0.54577708 0.01085659 0.00000000 3.29119444 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171643 3.47588658 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029650 3.54477072 5 755031 1 1.34799671 0.06304023 0.00000000 3.52107072 6 755032 1 0.78941816 0.02368125 0.00000000 3.28396225 7 755041 1 1.04024780 0.01476676 0.00000000 3.12542081 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235000 3.55512452 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173821 3.00668454 10 755052 1 0.49640495 0.00998294 0.00000000 2.64398932 11 755061 1 0.51272339 0.03556446 0.00000000 2.77764416 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023572 3.15372300 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202047 3.69743490 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00324070 4.18046474 15 755081 1 1.73500896 0.00145497 0.00000000 2.21503878 16 755082 1 1.16075969 0.04045932 0.00000000 3.36692071 17 755091 1 0.65328044 0.02197297 0.00000000 3.19132972 18 755092 1 1.41523349 0.08144858 0.00000000 3.30785012 19 755101 1 0.48941281 0.00707513 0.00000000 2.93258333 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 1 0.61439264 0.04118715 0.00000000 3.18023348 21 755111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017592 2.97981524 22 755112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104617 3.10459375 23 755121 1 1.88221276 0.00207350 0.00000000 1.14964330 24 755122 1 0.52058566 0.00204342 0.00000000 2.18625331 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.054 -0.057 2.822 0.045 0.440 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.061 0.043 3.026 0.046 0.533 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.059 0.939 6.565 0.049 0.321 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.078 0.258 2.423 0.048 0.703 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.059 0.565 4.914 0.048 0.305 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.049 0.623 4.263 0.043 0.340 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.065 0.185 3.988 0.046 0.515 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.063 0.968 5.805 0.041 0.616 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.057 0.860 4.300 0.039 0.596 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.056 0.149 2.721 0.035 0.643 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.047 -0.069 3.382 0.047 0.208 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.058 0.263 3.562 0.038 0.655 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.064 1.307 6.538 0.045 0.473 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.077 0.311 2.762 0.047 0.636 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.064 0.656 4.515 0.045 0.498 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.080 0.915 4.447 0.050 0.602 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.043 0.390 3.989 0.035 0.418 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.048 -0.230 4.381 0.039 0.417 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.044 0.748 3.853 0.042 0.284 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.040 0.324 3.228 0.040 0.255 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.052 -0.116 2.932 0.040 0.496 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.052 0.147 3.118 0.041 0.458 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.056 -0.058 2.752 0.041 0.577 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.048 0.445 4.004 0.041 0.395 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.057 0.399 3.929 0.043 0.474 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.011 0.408 1.150 0.004 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.057 0.317 3.921 0.042 0.484 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.015 0.607 1.435 0.006 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.040 -0.230 2.423 0.035 0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.048 0.095 2.979 0.040 0.367 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.063 0.702 4.414 0.047 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.080 1.307 6.565 0.050 0.703 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.048 -0.083 2.783 0.045 0.303 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.055 0.313 3.425 0.046 0.427 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.056 0.941 6.624 0.049 0.245 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.056 0.007 2.587 0.047 0.441 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.056 0.702 6.023 0.048 0.213 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.047 0.551 4.029 0.043 0.297 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.059 0.149 4.393 0.046 0.429 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.054 1.184 6.735 0.041 0.481 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.054 0.776 4.290 0.039 0.543 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.044 0.472 3.682 0.035 0.438 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.046 -0.064 3.448 0.047 0.192 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.052 -0.011 3.363 0.038 0.584 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.060 1.434 7.555 0.045 0.408 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.061 0.644 3.894 0.047 0.417 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.063 0.712 4.791 0.045 0.482 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.062 0.866 5.550 0.050 0.364 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.041 0.426 4.296 0.035 0.370 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.046 -0.194 4.378 0.039 0.376 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.042 0.773 4.042 0.042 0.240 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.037 0.232 3.225 0.040 0.167 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.050 -0.003 2.937 0.040 0.468 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.046 -0.028 3.348 0.041 0.310 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.051 0.112 2.944 0.041 0.501 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.044 0.378 4.219 0.041 0.286 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.051 0.429 4.273 0.043 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.007 0.437 1.331 0.004 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.052 0.402 4.035 0.042 0.392 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.010 0.740 1.237 0.006 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.999 0.037 -0.194 2.587 0.035 0.167 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.046 0.002 3.356 0.040 0.292 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.056 0.743 4.592 0.047 0.455 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.063 1.434 7.555 0.050 0.584 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.304 0.127 0.008 -0.181 2.879 -0.075 0.647 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.075 SERIES 755041 AND 755051 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.647 SERIES 755022 AND 755072 210 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.227 0.356 0.389 0.411 0.122 0.182 0.338 0.294 0.311 0.485 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.140 0.147 0.235 0.214 0.163 0.219 0.199 0.166 SERR 0.000 0.141 0.044 0.047 0.029 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.491 0.711 0.799 0.889 0.692 0.812 0.920 0.908 0.916 0.958 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.449 SDEV 0.180 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.951 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.998 0.040 0.128 3.385 0.036 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.076 0.043 -0.014 81 361 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.68 1.00 1.07 1.75 9.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.336 0.124 0.181 0.237 0.167 0.071 0.097 0.142 0.084 0.068 PACF 0.336 0.012 0.153 0.151 0.044 -0.025 0.039 0.058 -0.012 0.026 95% C.L. 0.095 0.105 0.107 0.109 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.114 0.338 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.195 -0.029 -0.019 0.150 0.065 -0.009 0.043 0.136 0.103 0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.195 2 0.208 -0.070 3 0.209 -0.070 0.001 4 0.208 -0.059 -0.032 0.158 5 0.208 -0.059 -0.032 0.158 0.002 6 0.208 -0.058 -0.032 0.157 0.004 -0.010 7 0.209 -0.058 -0.042 0.159 0.007 -0.023 0.063 8 0.203 -0.056 -0.042 0.143 0.011 -0.018 0.042 0.099 9 0.197 -0.058 -0.042 0.143 0.004 -0.015 0.045 0.089 0.053 10 0.194 -0.063 -0.044 0.144 0.004 -0.025 0.047 0.093 0.040 0.065 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2008.28 1993.17 1993.00 1995.00 1985.83 1987.82 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1989.78 1990.05 1987.66 1988.44 1988.58 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.208 -0.070 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.27 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.46 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.208 -0.027 -0.020 -0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 2 0.169 0.242 0.205 2 755012 2 0.237 0.348 0.190 3 755021 2 0.078 0.282 -0.126 4 755022 2 0.235 0.352 0.202 5 755031 2 0.082 0.185 0.144 6 755032 2 0.092 0.305 -0.021 7 755041 2 0.225 0.357 0.181 8 755042 2 0.266 0.391 0.188 9 755051 2 0.314 0.481 0.121 10 755052 2 0.251 0.343 0.218 11 755061 2 0.045 0.178 0.087 12 755062 2 0.403 0.480 0.179 13 755071 2 0.183 0.355 0.134 14 755072 2 0.244 0.307 0.267 15 755081 2 0.279 0.430 0.111 16 755082 2 0.139 0.342 0.066 17 755091 2 0.172 0.296 0.202 18 755092 2 0.157 0.346 0.101 19 755101 2 0.070 0.261 -0.059 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 2 0.029 0.172 -0.032 21 755111 2 0.242 0.447 0.047 22 755112 2 0.123 0.294 0.061 23 755121 2 0.298 0.468 0.070 24 755122 2 0.132 0.232 0.189 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.186 0.329 0.113 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.095 0.091 0.099 MEDIAN 2 0.178 0.342 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.140 0.102 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.029 0.172 -0.126 LOWER HINGE 2 0.108 0.272 0.063 UPPER HINGE 2 0.248 0.374 0.189 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.403 0.481 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.045 -0.022 2.723 0.052 -0.043 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.049 0.255 3.351 0.055 -0.033 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.053 1.061 6.920 0.054 0.009 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.050 0.199 2.740 0.057 -0.019 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.054 0.706 6.245 0.054 -0.014 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.045 0.558 3.918 0.049 0.000 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.052 0.348 5.491 0.055 -0.022 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.046 1.002 6.532 0.050 -0.018 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.045 0.745 4.582 0.049 0.006 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.039 0.478 4.051 0.042 -0.036 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.045 -0.063 3.258 0.050 -0.001 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.042 0.249 3.530 0.048 -0.045 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.054 2.020 11.111 0.052 -0.001 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.053 0.816 4.912 0.056 -0.033 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.055 1.100 7.645 0.056 -0.025 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.058 1.087 6.985 0.059 -0.003 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.038 0.465 4.141 0.039 -0.004 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.042 0.069 4.276 0.046 -0.001 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.041 0.631 3.597 0.046 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.037 0.238 3.222 0.043 0.000 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.044 0.047 3.450 0.049 -0.008 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.043 -0.010 3.700 0.048 -0.007 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.044 0.259 3.136 0.051 -0.018 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.041 0.269 4.350 0.046 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.046 0.521 4.744 0.050 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.006 0.487 1.971 0.005 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.045 0.407 4.096 0.050 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.011 0.562 2.468 0.007 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.037 -0.063 2.723 0.039 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.042 0.219 3.401 0.047 -0.026 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.053 0.780 5.868 0.054 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.058 2.020 11.111 0.059 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.384 0.097 0.006 0.000 3.042 0.086 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.086 SERIES 755012 AND 755031 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.210 0.453 0.394 0.332 0.127 0.256 0.405 0.384 0.384 0.552 SDEV 0.000 0.110 0.122 0.135 0.181 0.175 0.141 0.139 0.130 0.100 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.039 0.043 0.022 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.006 EPS 0.466 0.786 0.802 0.851 0.702 0.869 0.939 0.937 0.937 0.967 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.543 SDEV 0.109 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.966 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.037 0.144 3.778 0.042 -0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.050 0.026 -0.002 89 353 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.63 1.00 1.11 1.74 71.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.047 -0.196 0.050 0.158 0.050 -0.053 0.019 0.098 0.000 0.003 PACF -0.047 -0.199 0.030 0.129 0.085 0.006 0.028 0.070 0.001 0.034 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.099 0.099 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.043 -0.057 -0.200 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.028 0.052 0.128 0.076 0.000 0.034 0.098 0.009 0.030 PACF 0.007 0.027 0.052 0.127 0.074 -0.008 0.018 0.077 -0.010 0.020 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.007 0.028 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.037 0.172 3.751 0.036 0.202 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.202 0.005 0.060 0.149 0.097 0.014 0.048 0.104 0.031 0.028 PACF 0.202 -0.038 0.070 0.128 0.047 -0.011 0.041 0.067 -0.020 0.025 95% C.L. 0.095 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 0.202 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES