RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 755032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 755082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1806 1812 / 1922 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 755111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1901 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 755112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1888 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 755121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1919 1923 / 1934 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.157 0.084 1.750 7.180 0.255 0.627 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.168 0.106 2.332 10.703 0.252 0.638 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.139 0.056 0.495 2.716 0.224 0.668 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.155 0.083 0.748 2.943 0.241 0.835 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.156 0.068 2.689 17.249 0.231 0.492 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.149 0.052 0.719 3.636 0.242 0.558 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.119 0.037 1.495 8.085 0.224 0.405 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.133 0.042 0.848 4.480 0.203 0.575 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.169 0.132 3.515 18.410 0.223 0.829 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.143 0.090 1.432 4.535 0.183 0.871 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.143 0.067 2.792 12.726 0.208 0.732 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.205 0.084 0.849 3.571 0.197 0.740 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.169 0.070 3.093 19.314 0.211 0.502 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.181 0.125 6.166 47.850 0.251 0.298 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.109 0.046 1.765 7.431 0.246 0.557 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.097 0.042 1.245 5.457 0.221 0.597 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.154 0.044 1.130 5.498 0.192 0.477 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.157 0.067 3.394 19.720 0.217 0.513 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.154 0.073 1.931 7.923 0.225 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.161 0.045 0.853 3.657 0.225 0.395 21 755111 1683 1983 301 0.118 0.089 2.213 7.490 0.177 0.926 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.152 0.105 1.961 7.270 0.236 0.744 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.163 0.112 5.300 45.765 0.262 0.550 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.137 0.054 1.109 4.259 0.189 0.694 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.150 0.074 2.076 11.578 0.222 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.023 0.028 1.430 12.086 0.024 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.154 0.069 1.757 7.351 0.224 0.612 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.023 0.040 1.759 10.618 0.036 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.097 0.037 0.495 2.716 0.177 0.298 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.138 0.049 0.981 4.370 0.206 0.507 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 0.162 0.089 2.741 14.988 0.241 0.736 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 0.205 0.132 6.166 47.850 0.262 0.926 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.337 0.226 0.014 -0.253 2.433 -0.312 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.312 SERIES 755072 AND 755101 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR -0.004 0.250 0.346 0.149 0.120 0.179 0.145 0.248 0.324 0.260 SDEV 0.000 0.340 0.145 0.144 0.188 0.215 0.244 0.228 0.187 0.281 SERR 0.000 0.197 0.046 0.046 0.023 0.018 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.017 EPS -0.012 0.597 0.768 0.668 0.688 0.809 0.792 0.886 0.920 0.894 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.107 SDEV 0.200 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.741 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.145 0.046 1.359 5.961 0.185 0.625 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.524 0.468 -0.024 104 338 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.73 1.00 1.10 1.83 13.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.624 0.438 0.399 0.417 0.320 0.281 0.242 0.258 0.245 0.223 PACF 0.624 0.080 0.161 0.166 -0.057 0.057 -0.014 0.073 0.036 0.010 95% C.L. 0.095 0.127 0.140 0.150 0.160 0.166 0.170 0.173 0.176 0.179 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.429 0.534 -0.010 0.067 0.169 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 1 0.26867571 0.01504903 0.00000000 0.07560621 2 755012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110787 0.29280549 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097950 0.21736354 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120756 0.28211984 5 755031 1 0.17157005 0.01541884 0.00000000 0.10774720 6 755032 1 0.17410623 0.00370618 0.00000000 0.02729991 7 755041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002288 0.12115527 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034797 0.16822110 9 755051 1 0.33792520 0.00737185 0.00000000 0.00477459 10 755052 1 0.32437810 0.01448403 0.00000000 0.05974453 11 755061 1 0.42995521 0.20098574 0.00000000 0.12690465 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149535 0.32056531 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013066 0.15580377 14 755072 1 0.50702834 0.09927239 0.00000000 0.15791416 15 755081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016857 0.14665958 16 755082 1 0.12284423 0.00537749 0.00000000 0.03751481 17 755091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053709 0.19518940 18 755092 1 0.60190278 0.35749733 0.00000000 0.14808539 19 755101 1 0.19346465 0.03236839 0.00000000 0.11696880 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 1 0.05288610 0.03213868 0.00000000 0.15010707 21 755111 1 0.32900453 0.01895567 0.00000000 0.06009443 22 755112 1 0.31132370 0.01049843 0.00000000 0.05089093 23 755121 1 0.27492404 0.02193677 0.00000000 0.09665896 24 755122 1 0.19586508 0.00507437 0.00000000 0.01624865 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.265 1.129 5.002 0.254 0.068 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.022 0.380 1.537 6.935 0.252 0.403 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.997 0.229 0.768 4.680 0.223 0.122 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.027 0.286 1.328 6.844 0.239 0.362 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.306 1.437 7.478 0.230 0.288 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.308 0.535 3.370 0.242 0.477 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.311 1.468 7.846 0.223 0.404 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.279 1.183 5.487 0.203 0.468 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.011 0.484 2.938 15.862 0.223 0.728 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.001 0.225 0.592 4.056 0.183 0.381 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.296 1.346 5.177 0.205 0.546 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.002 0.233 1.185 5.106 0.196 0.337 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.420 3.497 23.338 0.210 0.484 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.383 2.278 13.262 0.250 0.278 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.001 0.370 2.183 11.877 0.246 0.400 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.352 3.317 20.538 0.219 0.351 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.243 1.310 5.339 0.191 0.311 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.300 0.930 4.098 0.214 0.493 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.338 1.158 5.695 0.224 0.538 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.267 0.673 3.023 0.224 0.336 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.004 0.246 0.852 4.585 0.178 0.483 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.999 0.357 1.464 6.063 0.239 0.516 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.419 3.604 21.534 0.262 0.332 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.001 0.319 3.561 27.483 0.189 0.430 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.003 0.317 1.678 9.362 0.222 0.397 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.007 0.068 0.992 7.119 0.024 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.307 1.337 5.879 0.223 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.002 0.098 1.201 7.729 0.037 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.997 0.225 0.535 3.023 0.178 0.068 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.266 1.030 4.841 0.204 0.334 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.001 0.363 2.230 12.569 0.240 0.483 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.027 0.484 3.604 27.483 0.262 0.728 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.261 1.049 4.662 0.254 0.046 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.993 0.327 2.138 10.262 0.252 0.207 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.226 0.778 4.686 0.223 0.098 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.241 0.707 3.888 0.239 0.178 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.997 0.294 1.590 8.326 0.230 0.236 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.997 0.297 0.544 3.419 0.242 0.443 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.998 0.278 1.715 9.161 0.224 0.259 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.998 0.258 1.042 4.740 0.203 0.396 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.991 0.387 3.153 18.806 0.223 0.628 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.999 0.218 0.590 3.891 0.183 0.351 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.998 0.239 1.060 4.160 0.205 0.342 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.998 0.220 1.397 6.662 0.196 0.263 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.993 0.394 5.407 48.544 0.210 0.364 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.993 0.340 3.572 26.007 0.250 0.060 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.997 0.353 2.211 11.829 0.246 0.349 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.996 0.313 3.195 19.536 0.219 0.221 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.998 0.229 1.192 5.217 0.191 0.253 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.995 0.249 1.316 6.706 0.214 0.269 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.992 0.300 1.158 5.976 0.224 0.448 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.997 0.245 0.646 3.163 0.224 0.227 21 755111 1683 1983 301 0.999 0.237 0.933 5.022 0.178 0.450 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.995 0.327 1.455 6.390 0.238 0.438 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.405 3.615 22.532 0.262 0.310 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.995 0.249 2.538 16.851 0.188 0.279 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.997 0.287 1.792 10.851 0.222 0.297 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.003 0.058 1.224 10.396 0.024 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 0.997 0.269 1.356 6.526 0.223 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.004 0.087 1.387 9.666 0.036 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.991 0.218 0.544 3.163 0.178 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.995 0.240 0.987 4.674 0.204 0.224 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 0.998 0.327 2.374 14.340 0.240 0.380 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.405 5.407 48.544 0.262 0.628 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.187 0.119 0.007 0.683 3.365 -0.031 0.655 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.031 SERIES 755071 AND 755081 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.655 SERIES 755061 AND 755062 120 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.047 0.200 0.241 0.135 0.116 0.115 0.157 0.219 0.304 0.249 SDEV 0.000 0.312 0.143 0.132 0.160 0.171 0.192 0.174 0.169 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.180 0.045 0.042 0.020 0.015 0.016 0.011 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.139 0.526 0.664 0.642 0.679 0.716 0.808 0.869 0.913 0.888 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.140 SDEV 0.183 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.796 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.983 0.234 1.202 5.856 0.187 0.448 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.161 0.084 0.067 121 321 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.01 1.00 1.10 2.12 38.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.447 0.236 0.207 0.126 0.041 0.005 -0.012 -0.037 -0.025 -0.067 PACF 0.447 0.045 0.108 -0.011 -0.042 -0.024 -0.015 -0.025 0.012 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.095 0.113 0.117 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.202 0.448 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.315 0.127 0.180 0.049 -0.014 0.011 0.036 -0.022 0.033 0.071 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.315 2 0.305 0.031 3 0.301 -0.013 0.146 4 0.309 -0.014 0.163 -0.057 5 0.307 -0.009 0.163 -0.046 -0.034 6 0.307 -0.009 0.162 -0.046 -0.035 0.003 7 0.307 -0.007 0.164 -0.053 -0.034 -0.010 0.041 8 0.309 -0.008 0.163 -0.055 -0.028 -0.010 0.053 -0.039 9 0.311 -0.010 0.163 -0.053 -0.025 -0.018 0.053 -0.055 0.052 10 0.309 -0.008 0.161 -0.053 -0.024 -0.016 0.047 -0.054 0.039 0.042 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3303.83 3259.55 3261.12 3253.58 3254.16 3255.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3257.65 3258.90 3260.24 3261.02 3262.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.315 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.04 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.315 0.099 0.031 0.010 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 1 0.018 0.047 2 755012 1 0.045 0.207 3 755021 1 0.014 0.100 4 755022 1 0.033 0.179 5 755031 1 0.142 0.236 6 755032 1 0.204 0.443 7 755041 1 0.073 0.264 8 755042 1 0.165 0.404 9 755051 1 0.396 0.629 10 755052 1 0.170 0.354 11 755061 1 0.124 0.344 12 755062 1 0.080 0.274 13 755071 1 0.140 0.367 14 755072 1 0.037 0.061 15 755081 1 0.126 0.350 16 755082 1 0.056 0.224 17 755091 1 0.072 0.267 18 755092 1 0.081 0.270 19 755101 1 0.243 0.453 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 1 0.053 0.228 21 755111 1 0.206 0.451 22 755112 1 0.215 0.446 23 755121 1 0.100 0.310 24 755122 1 0.092 0.280 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.120 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.088 0.136 MEDIAN 1 0.096 0.277 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.113 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.014 0.047 LOWER HINGE 1 0.054 0.226 UPPER HINGE 1 0.167 0.385 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.396 0.629 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.260 1.062 4.695 0.261 -0.007 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.320 2.325 11.763 0.276 0.009 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.225 0.851 4.739 0.234 -0.007 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.237 0.779 4.258 0.260 -0.005 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.285 1.798 10.031 0.266 -0.071 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.266 0.555 3.386 0.295 -0.043 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.268 2.098 11.886 0.251 -0.019 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.236 1.125 5.543 0.241 -0.026 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.301 1.423 7.495 0.298 -0.026 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.204 0.750 4.962 0.224 -0.081 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.224 1.036 4.168 0.250 -0.025 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.211 1.345 7.285 0.224 -0.031 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.366 6.267 60.981 0.248 -0.030 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.339 3.613 26.424 0.257 -0.011 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.331 2.296 13.182 0.294 -0.023 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.305 3.351 21.313 0.253 -0.015 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.220 1.154 5.111 0.214 -0.003 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.239 1.320 6.805 0.242 0.025 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.267 0.893 5.483 0.279 -0.096 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.239 0.765 3.333 0.250 -0.008 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.212 0.873 5.672 0.222 -0.027 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.292 1.360 6.348 0.299 -0.069 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.385 3.807 25.389 0.311 -0.020 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.239 2.727 19.251 0.216 -0.035 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.270 1.815 11.646 0.257 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.051 1.339 12.559 0.028 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.263 1.332 6.577 0.252 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.073 1.428 7.684 0.040 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.204 0.555 3.333 0.214 -0.096 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.230 0.883 4.850 0.238 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.303 2.310 12.534 0.277 -0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.385 6.267 60.981 0.311 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.185 0.115 0.007 0.659 3.807 -0.073 0.679 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.073 SERIES 755061 AND 755081 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.679 SERIES 755061 AND 755062 120 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.007 0.202 0.268 0.220 0.127 0.120 0.133 0.224 0.298 0.213 SDEV 0.000 0.255 0.164 0.102 0.150 0.152 0.176 0.162 0.163 0.173 SERR 0.000 0.147 0.052 0.032 0.018 0.013 0.015 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.024 0.529 0.695 0.764 0.702 0.725 0.776 0.872 0.911 0.867 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.141 SDEV 0.176 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.798 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.985 0.203 1.094 5.504 0.210 0.077 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.145 0.081 0.060 114 328 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.28 1.00 1.11 2.39 16.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.077 0.046 0.118 0.069 -0.011 -0.009 0.001 -0.045 0.007 0.000 PACF 0.077 0.041 0.112 0.052 -0.029 -0.025 -0.010 -0.043 0.020 0.004 95% C.L. 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 0.077 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.032 0.110 0.062 -0.016 -0.008 0.005 -0.046 0.010 0.010 PACF -0.003 0.032 0.111 0.063 -0.022 -0.026 -0.008 -0.046 0.016 0.016 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.986 0.215 1.151 5.914 0.190 0.333 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.332 0.168 0.167 0.102 0.014 -0.006 -0.010 -0.044 -0.014 -0.033 PACF 0.332 0.065 0.105 0.012 -0.049 -0.022 -0.012 -0.036 0.021 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.095 0.105 0.108 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.115 0.333 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES