RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1866 1870 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 755032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 755041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1865 1869 / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 755051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1844 1848 / 1873 1878 / 1924 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 755052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 25 IN 5 GAPS / 1821 1825 / 1851 1855 / 1890 1894 / 1897 1901 / / 1925 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 755061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 755062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1834 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 755072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 755081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 4 GAPS / 1697 1701 / 1750 1755 / 1767 1771 / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 755082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1714 1718 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 755091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1905 / 1926 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 755092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 755111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1844 1848 / 1946 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 755112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 755121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 755122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1802 1807 / 1894 1898 / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.296 0.022 2.787 18.599 0.043 0.588 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.311 0.021 -0.050 2.761 0.044 0.619 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.286 0.019 1.196 8.725 0.057 0.252 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.299 0.027 0.310 2.616 0.055 0.668 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.315 0.030 2.241 11.962 0.053 0.555 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.297 0.022 0.741 3.669 0.048 0.661 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.303 0.033 0.265 3.079 0.051 0.824 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.292 0.023 0.199 4.531 0.045 0.689 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.240 0.014 0.655 3.579 0.048 0.470 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.242 0.017 -0.121 2.834 0.047 0.616 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.242 0.016 0.718 3.343 0.047 0.555 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.261 0.017 -0.229 2.837 0.047 0.573 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.310 0.025 0.546 3.850 0.051 0.605 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.341 0.034 0.231 2.430 0.051 0.779 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.305 0.028 0.600 3.467 0.052 0.689 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.301 0.033 0.831 3.408 0.060 0.688 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.287 0.019 0.374 3.128 0.048 0.576 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.293 0.027 1.950 10.884 0.049 0.655 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.279 0.017 0.356 3.952 0.055 0.403 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.280 0.017 0.466 3.167 0.048 0.494 21 755111 1683 1983 301 0.263 0.017 -0.218 3.373 0.044 0.615 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.255 0.014 -0.070 3.465 0.046 0.342 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.226 0.020 0.151 2.508 0.044 0.779 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.218 0.013 0.799 4.719 0.054 0.315 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.281 0.022 0.614 4.870 0.049 0.584 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.031 0.006 0.762 3.868 0.004 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 204 0.289 0.020 0.420 3.436 0.048 0.610 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 64 0.044 0.010 0.595 1.284 0.006 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 115 0.218 0.013 -0.229 2.430 0.043 0.252 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.258 0.017 0.175 2.958 0.047 0.525 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 0.302 0.027 0.770 4.242 0.052 0.678 MAXIMUM VALUE 421 0.341 0.034 2.787 18.599 0.060 0.824 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.280 0.185 0.011 -0.460 2.953 -0.316 0.671 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.316 SERIES 755082 AND 755121 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.671 SERIES 755091 AND 755121 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.437 0.120 0.316 0.340 0.152 0.201 0.292 0.251 0.306 0.394 SDEV 0.000 0.376 0.189 0.086 0.261 0.220 0.176 0.228 0.228 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.217 0.060 0.027 0.032 0.019 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.718 0.378 0.742 0.855 0.743 0.830 0.903 0.888 0.914 0.940 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.368 SDEV 0.207 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.933 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.297 0.029 0.831 2.960 0.037 0.861 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.397 -0.268 0.105 37 405 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.18 1.01 1.06 1.23 6.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.807 0.801 0.787 0.768 0.733 0.718 0.700 0.690 0.688 PACF 0.859 0.265 0.261 0.142 0.079 -0.032 0.040 0.001 0.051 0.077 95% C.L. 0.095 0.150 0.185 0.214 0.239 0.260 0.278 0.295 0.309 0.323 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.783 0.496 0.069 0.173 0.104 0.101 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 1 0.22776486 0.34765160 0.00000000 0.29313532 2 755012 1 0.03124547 0.01253376 0.00000000 0.30068013 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005702 0.29073530 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005110 0.29447249 5 755031 1 0.10385939 0.04521753 0.00000000 0.30431423 6 755032 1 0.06250000 0.02219183 0.00000000 0.28415129 7 755041 1 0.09050779 0.01223904 0.00000000 0.27106148 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019481 0.31137839 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005616 0.24649364 10 755052 1 0.03266080 0.01219382 0.00000000 0.23172240 11 755061 1 0.04139490 0.04209358 0.00000000 0.23357376 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006516 0.25644743 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018132 0.32765621 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030103 0.37222522 15 755081 1 0.07439464 0.00443335 0.00000000 0.27148992 16 755082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000523 0.29916549 17 755091 1 0.04927719 0.03100222 0.00000000 0.27619115 18 755092 1 0.12699178 0.09070201 0.00000000 0.28394631 19 755101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014387 0.28981969 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 1 0.04756214 0.04682462 0.00000000 0.27362281 21 755111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008072 0.25127345 22 755112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000098 0.25436991 23 755121 1 0.18261378 0.00174924 0.00000000 0.07275025 24 755122 1 0.01222516 0.00839836 0.00000000 0.21213676 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.053 0.118 3.188 0.042 0.451 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.063 0.180 2.874 0.044 0.562 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.067 1.445 10.198 0.056 0.241 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.088 0.394 2.626 0.054 0.672 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.067 1.076 6.710 0.053 0.251 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.054 0.402 3.564 0.047 0.372 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.074 -0.265 4.106 0.051 0.576 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.069 0.889 5.224 0.045 0.591 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.057 0.601 3.446 0.046 0.425 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.060 -0.050 2.800 0.045 0.514 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.048 -0.049 3.169 0.047 0.237 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.065 -0.213 3.037 0.046 0.551 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.072 0.633 4.045 0.051 0.520 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.084 0.327 2.658 0.050 0.690 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.071 0.621 4.415 0.051 0.486 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.109 0.842 3.433 0.059 0.690 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.051 0.016 2.751 0.047 0.309 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.055 -0.240 4.338 0.048 0.358 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.058 0.359 3.442 0.055 0.303 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.049 0.095 3.105 0.048 0.229 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.061 -0.241 3.099 0.044 0.565 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.053 -0.050 3.419 0.047 0.363 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.060 0.014 2.861 0.044 0.509 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.058 0.851 4.795 0.054 0.263 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.064 0.323 3.888 0.049 0.447 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.014 0.464 1.648 0.004 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.060 0.253 3.426 0.048 0.468 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.015 0.676 1.266 0.006 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.048 -0.265 2.626 0.042 0.229 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.055 -0.049 2.956 0.046 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.070 0.627 4.222 0.052 0.564 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.109 1.445 10.198 0.059 0.690 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.049 0.230 3.270 0.043 0.342 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.058 0.395 2.984 0.044 0.492 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.063 1.422 9.541 0.056 0.166 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.062 0.212 3.176 0.055 0.350 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.063 1.309 8.681 0.053 0.145 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.051 0.374 3.347 0.047 0.299 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.067 -0.455 4.417 0.051 0.493 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.059 0.947 5.669 0.045 0.457 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.054 0.618 3.639 0.046 0.358 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.051 0.136 3.521 0.045 0.318 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.046 0.018 3.377 0.047 0.177 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.062 -0.176 2.978 0.046 0.499 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.067 0.696 4.409 0.051 0.448 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.065 0.499 3.347 0.050 0.477 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.070 0.669 4.769 0.051 0.466 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.074 0.653 5.262 0.060 0.339 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.049 0.010 2.871 0.047 0.267 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.053 -0.348 4.110 0.048 0.310 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.053 0.524 4.122 0.055 0.171 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.047 0.044 3.231 0.048 0.156 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.057 -0.149 3.002 0.044 0.502 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.049 -0.005 3.697 0.047 0.239 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.055 0.145 2.782 0.044 0.427 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.055 0.808 4.932 0.054 0.175 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.057 0.357 4.214 0.049 0.336 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.008 0.480 1.707 0.004 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.056 0.302 3.580 0.048 0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.012 0.647 1.389 0.006 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.999 0.046 -0.455 2.782 0.043 0.145 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.051 0.014 3.204 0.046 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.063 0.661 4.593 0.052 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.074 1.422 9.541 0.060 0.502 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.280 0.115 0.007 -0.192 3.495 -0.115 0.612 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.115 SERIES 755042 AND 755062 154 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.612 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.353 0.178 0.302 0.321 0.181 0.223 0.281 0.256 0.268 0.424 SDEV 0.000 0.351 0.192 0.136 0.208 0.197 0.170 0.217 0.202 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.203 0.061 0.043 0.026 0.017 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.642 0.490 0.730 0.844 0.782 0.848 0.898 0.891 0.898 0.946 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.404 SDEV 0.172 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.942 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.047 0.340 3.544 0.040 0.368 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.033 0.018 0.015 77 365 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 62.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.368 0.214 0.206 0.291 0.253 0.151 0.148 0.171 0.180 0.187 PACF 0.368 0.091 0.117 0.201 0.089 -0.014 0.038 0.044 0.045 0.075 95% C.L. 0.095 0.107 0.111 0.114 0.121 0.126 0.127 0.129 0.131 0.133 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.196 0.283 0.037 0.050 0.175 0.087 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.220 0.005 -0.035 0.160 0.117 -0.010 0.026 0.136 0.112 0.091 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.220 2 0.230 -0.046 3 0.229 -0.039 -0.028 4 0.234 -0.032 -0.070 0.184 5 0.227 -0.029 -0.068 0.174 0.042 6 0.229 -0.021 -0.072 0.173 0.053 -0.049 7 0.232 -0.024 -0.083 0.177 0.055 -0.063 0.064 8 0.225 -0.017 -0.089 0.158 0.064 -0.061 0.039 0.109 9 0.222 -0.018 -0.087 0.156 0.059 -0.058 0.039 0.103 0.028 10 0.219 -0.026 -0.090 0.160 0.054 -0.070 0.046 0.104 0.011 0.077 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2077.76 2057.75 2058.83 2060.49 2047.30 2048.52 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2049.46 2049.65 2046.35 2047.99 2047.34 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.220 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.86 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.220 0.049 0.011 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 1 0.128 0.343 2 755012 1 0.266 0.494 3 755021 1 0.029 0.169 4 755022 1 0.164 0.352 5 755031 1 0.050 0.146 6 755032 1 0.094 0.300 7 755041 1 0.274 0.507 8 755042 1 0.249 0.457 9 755051 1 0.144 0.359 10 755052 1 0.143 0.320 11 755061 1 0.032 0.177 12 755062 1 0.290 0.501 13 755071 1 0.226 0.449 14 755072 1 0.261 0.479 15 755081 1 0.250 0.467 16 755082 1 0.150 0.339 17 755091 1 0.076 0.269 18 755092 1 0.102 0.319 19 755101 1 0.030 0.174 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 1 0.027 0.156 21 755111 1 0.254 0.504 22 755112 1 0.059 0.240 23 755121 1 0.212 0.429 24 755122 1 0.045 0.175 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.148 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 0.127 MEDIAN 1 0.143 0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.195 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.027 0.146 LOWER HINGE 1 0.054 0.209 UPPER HINGE 1 0.249 0.462 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.290 0.507 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.046 0.147 3.382 0.052 -0.037 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.050 0.392 3.439 0.058 -0.083 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.063 1.497 9.759 0.062 0.006 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.058 0.443 3.536 0.066 -0.073 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.062 1.459 10.107 0.057 -0.024 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.049 0.245 3.079 0.056 -0.020 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.058 -0.194 4.173 0.065 -0.086 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.053 0.926 6.396 0.059 -0.102 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.050 0.546 3.826 0.057 -0.047 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.048 0.198 3.355 0.055 -0.069 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.046 0.006 3.465 0.052 0.004 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.053 0.346 4.444 0.060 -0.114 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.059 1.094 5.763 0.064 -0.078 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.057 0.568 3.891 0.063 -0.098 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.061 1.120 7.669 0.066 -0.094 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.070 0.943 6.472 0.073 -0.068 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.047 -0.084 2.731 0.054 -0.014 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.050 -0.427 3.588 0.057 -0.003 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.052 0.540 4.145 0.060 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.047 0.084 3.363 0.052 0.007 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.049 -0.007 3.199 0.055 0.004 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.047 -0.034 3.642 0.053 -0.007 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.049 0.299 2.953 0.056 -0.080 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.054 0.831 5.354 0.060 -0.020 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.053 0.456 4.655 0.059 -0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.006 0.515 2.056 0.005 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.051 0.369 3.734 0.058 -0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.009 0.834 2.186 0.008 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.046 -0.427 2.731 0.052 -0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.048 0.045 3.372 0.055 -0.082 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.058 0.879 5.559 0.063 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.070 1.497 10.107 0.073 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.318 0.095 0.006 -0.135 3.704 -0.010 0.625 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.010 SERIES 755012 AND 755031 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.625 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.211 0.295 0.360 0.295 0.186 0.303 0.337 0.292 0.267 0.439 SDEV 0.000 0.172 0.129 0.128 0.201 0.176 0.155 0.165 0.160 0.131 SERR 0.000 0.099 0.041 0.041 0.025 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.467 0.650 0.778 0.827 0.788 0.894 0.920 0.907 0.897 0.950 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.457 SDEV 0.121 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.953 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.041 0.314 3.952 0.046 -0.051 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.040 0.021 0.007 82 360 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.77 1.00 1.09 1.86 17.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.051 0.020 0.039 0.166 0.134 0.007 0.056 0.084 0.059 0.125 PACF -0.051 0.017 0.041 0.171 0.156 0.021 0.042 0.053 0.020 0.109 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.019 0.049 0.176 0.144 0.017 0.061 0.090 0.070 0.128 PACF 0.001 0.019 0.049 0.176 0.149 0.016 0.044 0.052 0.023 0.106 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.042 0.381 3.727 0.040 0.230 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.230 0.088 0.109 0.222 0.193 0.077 0.098 0.128 0.121 0.150 PACF 0.230 0.038 0.086 0.189 0.110 -0.006 0.051 0.049 0.031 0.091 95% C.L. 0.095 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.106 0.109 0.110 0.111 0.112 0.113 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.054 0.230 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES