RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 6.075 0.470 -0.210 3.668 0.077 0.203 2 755012 1760 1983 224 6.328 0.474 -0.323 2.920 0.065 0.406 3 755021 1826 1983 158 6.765 0.537 -1.016 5.083 0.053 0.601 4 755022 1774 1983 210 6.774 0.548 -0.474 3.227 0.061 0.504 5 755031 1765 1983 219 6.781 0.579 -0.730 3.032 0.047 0.771 6 755032 1769 1983 215 6.446 0.520 -1.276 5.949 0.053 0.650 7 755041 1762 1983 222 6.839 0.379 -0.468 3.627 0.050 0.357 8 755042 1784 1983 200 6.683 0.552 -0.641 3.062 0.050 0.700 9 755051 1759 1983 225 5.959 0.493 -0.265 3.631 0.061 0.531 10 755052 1724 1983 260 6.019 0.580 -0.340 2.611 0.061 0.662 11 755061 1864 1983 120 6.622 0.490 -0.787 4.406 0.064 0.352 12 755062 1830 1983 154 6.621 0.669 -0.648 3.046 0.059 0.697 13 755071 1788 1983 196 6.721 0.495 0.065 2.710 0.061 0.476 14 755072 1774 1983 210 7.182 0.490 -0.392 3.355 0.050 0.563 15 755081 1542 1983 442 6.544 0.784 -0.418 2.656 0.061 0.784 16 755082 1665 1983 319 6.273 0.612 0.378 2.739 0.064 0.665 17 755091 1833 1983 151 6.925 0.420 -0.723 3.422 0.055 0.337 18 755092 1827 1983 157 6.867 0.520 -0.349 2.644 0.053 0.613 19 755101 1828 1983 156 6.310 0.426 -0.580 3.864 0.062 0.350 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 6.533 0.407 -0.506 3.451 0.056 0.372 21 755111 1683 1983 301 5.941 0.422 -0.183 2.820 0.063 0.392 22 755112 1704 1983 280 5.906 0.641 -0.271 2.080 0.061 0.737 23 755121 1788 1983 196 5.574 0.368 -0.179 2.643 0.069 0.137 24 755122 1778 1983 206 5.547 0.406 -0.501 3.095 0.077 0.135 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 6.426 0.512 -0.452 3.323 0.060 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.435 0.099 0.338 0.851 0.008 0.195 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 6.538 0.494 -0.443 3.079 0.061 0.517 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.722 0.141 0.377 0.905 0.010 0.309 MINIMUM VALUE 120 5.547 0.368 -1.276 2.080 0.047 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 6.047 0.424 -0.644 2.724 0.053 0.354 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 6.769 0.565 -0.268 3.629 0.063 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 7.182 0.784 0.378 5.949 0.077 0.784 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.175 0.193 0.012 -0.253 2.914 -0.455 0.615 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.455 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.615 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR -0.199 0.211 0.233 0.189 0.078 0.163 0.247 0.167 0.257 0.344 SDEV 0.000 0.276 0.226 0.164 0.187 0.245 0.218 0.222 0.229 0.225 SERR 0.000 0.159 0.071 0.052 0.023 0.021 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.014 EPS -1.197 0.542 0.655 0.728 0.578 0.790 0.881 0.826 0.893 0.926 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.255 SDEV 0.222 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.892 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 6.614 0.499 0.906 4.106 0.044 0.686 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.532 -0.371 2.903 15 427 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.06 0.09 1.01 1.04 1.13 2.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.685 0.635 0.598 0.585 0.528 0.533 0.489 0.503 0.477 0.483 PACF 0.685 0.313 0.177 0.151 0.019 0.102 0.002 0.095 0.029 0.063 95% C.L. 0.095 0.132 0.158 0.177 0.194 0.206 0.218 0.228 0.238 0.246 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.555 0.388 0.184 0.122 0.159 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 1 1.23550069 0.06278791 0.00000000 5.98343372 2 755012 1 0.63986725 0.01341398 0.00000000 6.12728214 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00251226 6.56483173 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00237086 6.51714754 5 755031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00438058 6.29882097 6 755032 1 0.71294254 0.03293876 0.00000000 6.34659481 7 755041 1 0.07498445 0.01799220 0.00000000 6.82061291 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025708 6.70848703 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00338360 6.34105730 10 755052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103750 6.15408611 11 755061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016706 6.61180973 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00824252 5.98263311 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00322091 6.40350533 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017073 7.16351128 15 755081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00361648 7.34460211 16 755082 1 1.59846890 0.01611182 0.00000000 5.96651602 17 755091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030338 6.90190983 18 755092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075456 6.92661667 19 755101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00319187 6.05950212 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035474 6.50714588 21 755111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076032 6.05617094 22 755112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00585202 6.72806549 23 755121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032447 5.60599041 24 755122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002417 5.54482889 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.069 -0.488 3.919 0.076 0.009 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.071 -0.205 2.936 0.065 0.317 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.077 -1.448 6.707 0.053 0.567 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.079 -0.663 4.079 0.061 0.517 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.077 -0.005 3.228 0.047 0.710 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.077 -1.273 5.835 0.053 0.616 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.055 -0.454 3.651 0.050 0.353 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.083 -0.637 3.051 0.050 0.696 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.075 0.033 3.171 0.061 0.425 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.095 -0.389 2.663 0.061 0.651 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.074 -0.785 4.412 0.063 0.348 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.085 -0.377 4.017 0.058 0.559 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.068 -0.100 3.055 0.061 0.382 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.068 -0.370 3.322 0.050 0.560 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.097 -0.436 3.304 0.060 0.660 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.076 0.198 3.699 0.064 0.426 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.061 -0.734 3.453 0.054 0.334 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.076 -0.299 2.633 0.052 0.608 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.064 -0.754 4.395 0.062 0.263 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.062 -0.493 3.499 0.055 0.370 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.070 -0.298 3.026 0.063 0.370 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.075 0.356 4.466 0.061 0.384 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.066 -0.177 2.588 0.069 0.133 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.073 -0.501 3.092 0.077 0.134 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.074 -0.429 3.675 0.059 0.433 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.010 0.409 0.979 0.008 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.074 -0.413 3.387 0.061 0.405 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.009 0.459 0.995 0.010 0.246 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.055 -1.448 2.588 0.047 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.068 -0.650 3.053 0.053 0.341 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.077 -0.191 4.048 0.063 0.588 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.097 0.356 6.707 0.077 0.710 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.068 -0.490 3.965 0.076 -0.018 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.066 -0.274 2.825 0.065 0.210 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.061 -0.801 5.162 0.053 0.373 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.062 -0.166 3.289 0.061 0.248 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.999 0.068 -0.286 2.977 0.047 0.631 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.072 -0.991 5.356 0.053 0.548 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.054 -0.489 3.800 0.050 0.318 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.062 -0.578 3.607 0.049 0.483 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.069 0.037 3.675 0.061 0.324 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.999 0.078 -0.412 3.352 0.061 0.467 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.066 -1.092 6.279 0.063 0.206 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.076 -0.684 5.641 0.058 0.438 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.059 -0.166 3.891 0.061 0.188 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 -0.537 3.422 0.050 0.326 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.091 -0.412 3.610 0.060 0.612 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.073 0.252 4.080 0.064 0.380 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.827 3.918 0.054 0.294 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.061 -0.254 3.240 0.052 0.399 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.061 -0.858 4.869 0.062 0.196 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.056 -0.586 3.934 0.055 0.217 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.069 -0.291 3.003 0.063 0.341 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.072 0.455 5.242 0.061 0.327 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.061 -0.323 2.826 0.069 0.006 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.071 -0.469 3.300 0.077 0.081 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.066 -0.427 3.969 0.059 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.008 0.366 0.955 0.008 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.066 -0.441 3.737 0.061 0.325 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.011 0.371 1.180 0.010 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.999 0.054 -1.092 2.825 0.047 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.061 -0.635 3.294 0.053 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.071 -0.264 4.475 0.063 0.419 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.091 0.455 6.279 0.077 0.631 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.217 0.143 0.009 0.165 2.972 -0.152 0.647 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 755032 AND 755091 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.647 SERIES 755121 AND 755122 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.178 0.300 0.287 0.205 0.093 0.196 0.243 0.180 0.266 0.347 SDEV 0.000 0.204 0.192 0.179 0.188 0.191 0.210 0.192 0.218 0.209 SERR 0.000 0.118 0.061 0.057 0.023 0.016 0.018 0.012 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.415 0.656 0.715 0.747 0.624 0.825 0.879 0.839 0.897 0.927 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.275 SDEV 0.200 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.901 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.057 -0.509 3.714 0.052 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.244 -0.146 0.189 71 371 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.36 1.00 1.07 1.44 7.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.313 0.226 0.203 0.202 0.094 0.155 0.104 0.098 0.044 0.039 PACF 0.313 0.142 0.110 0.104 -0.031 0.091 0.004 0.023 -0.029 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.108 0.112 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.142 0.242 0.098 0.089 0.110 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.036 0.085 -0.038 0.005 -0.032 0.092 -0.023 0.027 0.025 -0.010 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.036 2 0.033 0.083 3 0.037 0.085 -0.044 4 0.037 0.085 -0.044 0.001 5 0.037 0.084 -0.042 0.001 -0.025 6 0.039 0.084 -0.038 -0.006 -0.029 0.093 7 0.042 0.083 -0.038 -0.007 -0.027 0.094 -0.026 8 0.042 0.082 -0.038 -0.007 -0.026 0.093 -0.026 0.011 9 0.042 0.083 -0.041 -0.006 -0.026 0.094 -0.029 0.009 0.035 10 0.042 0.083 -0.042 -0.005 -0.026 0.094 -0.030 0.011 0.036 -0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2101.87 2103.29 2102.20 2103.35 2105.35 2107.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2105.24 2106.95 2108.89 2110.34 2112.19 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 0 0.000 2 755012 0 0.044 3 755021 0 0.151 4 755022 0 0.064 5 755031 0 0.403 6 755032 0 0.300 7 755041 0 0.102 8 755042 0 0.236 9 755051 0 0.106 10 755052 0 0.220 11 755061 0 0.044 12 755062 0 0.196 13 755071 0 0.036 14 755072 0 0.108 15 755081 0 0.380 16 755082 0 0.146 17 755091 0 0.087 18 755092 0 0.160 19 755101 0 0.039 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 0 0.048 21 755111 0 0.117 22 755112 0 0.117 23 755121 0 0.000 24 755122 0 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.130 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.112 MEDIAN 0 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.044 UPPER HINGE 0 0.178 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.403 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.068 -0.490 3.965 0.076 -0.018 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.066 -0.274 2.825 0.065 0.210 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.061 -0.801 5.162 0.053 0.373 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.062 -0.166 3.289 0.061 0.248 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.068 -0.286 2.977 0.047 0.631 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.072 -0.991 5.356 0.053 0.548 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.054 -0.489 3.800 0.050 0.318 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.062 -0.578 3.607 0.049 0.483 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.069 0.037 3.675 0.061 0.324 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.078 -0.412 3.352 0.061 0.467 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.066 -1.092 6.279 0.063 0.206 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.076 -0.684 5.641 0.058 0.438 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.059 -0.166 3.891 0.061 0.188 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 -0.537 3.422 0.050 0.326 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.091 -0.412 3.610 0.060 0.612 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.073 0.252 4.080 0.064 0.380 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.827 3.918 0.054 0.294 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.061 -0.254 3.240 0.052 0.399 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.061 -0.858 4.869 0.062 0.196 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.056 -0.586 3.934 0.055 0.217 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.069 -0.291 3.003 0.063 0.341 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.072 0.455 5.242 0.061 0.327 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.061 -0.323 2.826 0.069 0.006 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.071 -0.469 3.300 0.077 0.081 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.066 -0.427 3.969 0.059 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.008 0.366 0.955 0.008 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.066 -0.441 3.737 0.061 0.325 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.011 0.371 1.180 0.010 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.054 -1.092 2.825 0.047 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.061 -0.635 3.294 0.053 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.071 -0.264 4.475 0.063 0.419 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.091 0.455 6.279 0.077 0.631 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.217 0.143 0.009 0.165 2.972 -0.152 0.647 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 755032 AND 755091 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.647 SERIES 755121 AND 755122 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.178 0.300 0.287 0.205 0.093 0.196 0.243 0.180 0.266 0.347 SDEV 0.000 0.204 0.192 0.179 0.188 0.191 0.210 0.192 0.218 0.209 SERR 0.000 0.118 0.061 0.057 0.023 0.016 0.018 0.012 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.415 0.656 0.715 0.747 0.624 0.825 0.879 0.839 0.897 0.927 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.275 SDEV 0.200 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.901 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.057 -0.511 3.715 0.052 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.243 -0.146 0.188 71 371 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.36 1.00 1.07 1.44 7.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.314 0.226 0.202 0.202 0.094 0.155 0.103 0.098 0.044 0.040 PACF 0.314 0.142 0.110 0.104 -0.031 0.091 0.004 0.023 -0.029 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.108 0.112 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.142 0.242 0.098 0.089 0.110 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.057 -0.511 3.715 0.052 0.314 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.314 0.226 0.202 0.202 0.094 0.155 0.103 0.098 0.044 0.040 PACF 0.314 0.142 0.110 0.104 -0.031 0.091 0.004 0.023 -0.029 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.108 0.112 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.142 0.242 0.098 0.089 0.110 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES