RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake WIDTH_RING PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.525 0.521 0.262 2.796 0.183 0.754 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.572 0.702 0.828 3.030 0.178 0.840 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.110 0.383 -0.178 3.165 0.178 0.775 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.130 0.492 0.302 2.787 0.172 0.854 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.071 0.293 -0.026 2.685 0.170 0.677 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.040 0.355 -0.195 2.854 0.178 0.782 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.966 0.345 -0.156 3.236 0.172 0.778 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.041 0.286 0.258 2.820 0.171 0.734 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.582 0.666 0.700 2.886 0.168 0.854 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.370 0.778 1.265 3.924 0.198 0.892 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.656 0.588 1.496 6.356 0.159 0.750 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.814 0.534 0.629 3.004 0.183 0.677 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.510 0.700 0.347 2.566 0.192 0.877 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.431 0.550 0.218 2.393 0.197 0.803 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.676 0.237 1.212 5.875 0.206 0.701 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.635 0.307 0.840 3.374 0.221 0.845 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.867 0.399 0.545 3.256 0.175 0.507 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.726 0.380 0.145 3.702 0.164 0.595 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.547 0.594 0.475 3.471 0.214 0.677 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.668 0.539 0.533 3.262 0.207 0.667 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.159 0.624 1.710 5.479 0.148 0.920 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.324 0.753 1.091 3.929 0.169 0.872 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.708 0.573 0.710 3.130 0.130 0.832 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.811 0.543 0.129 2.286 0.135 0.818 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.372 0.506 0.548 3.428 0.178 0.770 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.354 0.158 0.525 1.051 0.023 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 1.470 0.537 0.504 3.147 0.176 0.780 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.572 0.242 0.653 0.779 0.026 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.635 0.237 -0.195 2.286 0.130 0.507 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.091 0.368 0.182 2.808 0.168 0.689 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.662 0.609 0.834 3.586 0.194 0.849 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.867 0.778 1.710 6.356 0.221 0.920 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.381 0.329 0.020 -0.745 2.961 -0.557 0.942 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.557 SERIES 755041 AND 755052 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.942 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.597 0.544 0.502 0.335 0.246 0.291 0.293 0.404 0.466 0.517 SDEV 0.000 0.144 0.222 0.220 0.292 0.242 0.266 0.271 0.198 0.363 SERR 0.000 0.083 0.070 0.069 0.036 0.021 0.023 0.017 0.012 0.022 EPS 0.829 0.841 0.863 0.852 0.841 0.888 0.904 0.942 0.954 0.963 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.381 SDEV 0.222 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.937 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.156 0.377 0.180 2.807 0.160 0.795 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.797 0.761 -0.426 17 425 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.12 1.01 1.07 1.19 2.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.793 0.695 0.636 0.598 0.561 0.527 0.539 0.539 0.507 0.486 PACF 0.793 0.177 0.116 0.097 0.046 0.035 0.144 0.072 -0.024 0.024 95% C.L. 0.095 0.143 0.171 0.191 0.207 0.221 0.232 0.243 0.253 0.262 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.657 0.609 0.092 0.061 0.110 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00709285 2.26658726 2 755012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00870050 2.55081487 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00655121 1.63094819 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00734190 1.89951134 5 755031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107022 1.18891120 6 755032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265579 1.32691801 7 755041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00316856 0.61233664 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017548 1.05828595 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00851932 2.54503894 10 755052 1 2.67121053 0.00840200 0.00000000 0.28960979 11 755061 1 1.75513911 0.01677347 0.00000000 0.90670753 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00786998 2.42343020 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00611433 0.90778965 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00254626 1.16222692 15 755081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069474 0.82967651 16 755082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267505 1.06274211 17 755091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00281230 2.08101988 18 755092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181411 1.86936545 19 755101 1 1.29276669 0.03756208 0.00000000 1.33149755 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 1 0.83397585 0.01621899 0.00000000 1.35188913 21 755111 1 2.27230501 0.01548229 0.00000000 0.68014067 22 755112 1 2.67433524 0.00836077 0.00000000 0.29585892 23 755121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00760641 2.45764995 24 755122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00693788 2.52894425 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.206 0.178 3.492 0.182 0.380 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.011 0.264 0.481 3.575 0.177 0.588 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.993 0.237 -0.414 5.357 0.177 0.582 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.993 0.204 -0.204 4.589 0.173 0.458 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.268 0.008 2.781 0.169 0.653 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.309 -0.334 3.395 0.178 0.719 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.993 0.299 -0.159 2.479 0.172 0.716 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.275 0.272 2.868 0.171 0.730 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.008 0.233 0.469 3.253 0.167 0.597 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.004 0.253 0.197 3.089 0.198 0.589 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.224 0.748 3.837 0.157 0.586 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.212 0.584 3.485 0.181 0.442 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.993 0.425 0.813 3.286 0.190 0.830 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.391 0.776 3.982 0.196 0.793 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.310 0.795 4.711 0.206 0.632 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.028 0.402 2.479 12.122 0.220 0.682 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.200 0.430 3.278 0.174 0.440 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.214 0.080 3.695 0.163 0.574 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.340 0.281 3.770 0.213 0.646 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.297 0.459 3.510 0.206 0.599 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.199 0.359 3.164 0.148 0.527 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.001 0.258 0.820 4.308 0.168 0.652 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.003 0.224 0.782 4.185 0.129 0.647 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.001 0.207 0.373 3.815 0.135 0.595 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.001 0.269 0.428 4.001 0.177 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.007 0.067 0.572 1.847 0.022 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.255 0.402 3.542 0.175 0.598 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.001 0.091 0.633 0.818 0.025 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.993 0.199 -0.414 2.479 0.129 0.380 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.999 0.213 0.129 3.266 0.168 0.578 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.001 0.304 0.762 4.083 0.193 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.028 0.425 2.479 12.122 0.220 0.830 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.204 0.199 3.679 0.182 0.360 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.997 0.226 0.445 3.208 0.177 0.482 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.996 0.216 -0.281 5.216 0.177 0.477 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.998 0.191 -0.162 3.939 0.173 0.377 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.995 0.242 0.010 2.892 0.169 0.587 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.993 0.282 -0.383 3.806 0.178 0.673 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.995 0.236 0.303 3.879 0.172 0.531 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.997 0.237 0.383 2.957 0.171 0.641 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.998 0.209 0.430 3.158 0.167 0.526 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.998 0.234 0.143 3.132 0.198 0.530 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.998 0.207 0.605 3.670 0.157 0.523 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.202 0.469 3.371 0.181 0.373 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.979 0.313 0.573 3.090 0.191 0.695 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.980 0.263 0.029 2.950 0.195 0.588 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.998 0.299 0.748 4.551 0.206 0.610 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.995 0.264 0.545 3.866 0.220 0.459 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.999 0.180 0.352 3.188 0.174 0.297 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.998 0.188 0.051 3.819 0.163 0.421 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.990 0.287 0.034 4.135 0.213 0.546 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.995 0.266 0.247 3.389 0.206 0.528 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.195 0.330 3.115 0.148 0.511 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.997 0.247 1.096 5.319 0.168 0.623 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.204 1.075 5.444 0.129 0.597 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.998 0.189 0.411 3.626 0.135 0.535 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.995 0.233 0.319 3.725 0.177 0.521 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.005 0.038 0.366 0.747 0.022 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 0.998 0.230 0.341 3.648 0.176 0.529 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.003 0.061 0.465 0.764 0.025 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.979 0.180 -0.383 2.892 0.129 0.297 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.995 0.203 0.043 3.145 0.168 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 0.998 0.264 0.507 3.909 0.193 0.592 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.313 1.096 5.444 0.220 0.695 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.402 0.134 0.008 0.039 3.629 -0.035 0.840 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.035 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.840 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.650 0.502 0.429 0.229 0.293 0.305 0.327 0.440 0.509 0.522 SDEV 0.000 0.140 0.172 0.227 0.190 0.181 0.229 0.198 0.188 0.256 SERR 0.000 0.081 0.054 0.072 0.023 0.015 0.020 0.012 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.859 0.818 0.824 0.773 0.870 0.894 0.917 0.949 0.961 0.963 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.492 SDEV 0.168 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.959 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.233 0.761 5.227 0.173 0.531 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.024 0.011 0.115 90 352 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.51 1.00 1.06 1.57 36.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.530 0.331 0.224 0.104 0.048 0.010 0.019 0.022 -0.027 -0.018 PACF 0.530 0.070 0.032 -0.056 -0.009 -0.015 0.034 0.011 -0.063 0.012 95% C.L. 0.095 0.119 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.286 0.492 0.072 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.381 0.268 0.182 0.098 0.042 0.096 0.092 0.022 -0.002 0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.381 2 0.326 0.144 3 0.319 0.128 0.048 4 0.320 0.130 0.053 -0.015 5 0.320 0.131 0.056 -0.007 -0.026 6 0.322 0.132 0.051 -0.018 -0.054 0.086 7 0.318 0.134 0.052 -0.020 -0.059 0.072 0.042 8 0.320 0.138 0.049 -0.022 -0.056 0.079 0.060 -0.054 9 0.318 0.140 0.052 -0.024 -0.057 0.081 0.065 -0.042 -0.037 10 0.321 0.143 0.048 -0.029 -0.053 0.083 0.061 -0.052 -0.058 0.067 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3432.92 3365.68 3358.47 3359.45 3361.34 3363.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3361.77 3362.97 3363.67 3365.08 3365.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.326 0.144 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.326 0.250 0.128 0.078 0.044 0.025 0.015 0.008 0.005 0.0028 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 2 0.218 0.320 0.117 2 755012 2 0.271 0.419 0.135 3 755021 2 0.281 0.384 0.220 4 755022 2 0.162 0.352 0.093 5 755031 2 0.378 0.479 0.187 6 755032 2 0.469 0.564 0.163 7 755041 2 0.305 0.493 0.078 8 755042 2 0.416 0.619 0.038 9 755051 2 0.289 0.467 0.113 10 755052 2 0.299 0.449 0.153 11 755061 2 0.315 0.460 0.156 12 755062 2 0.196 0.290 0.228 13 755071 2 0.512 0.637 0.105 14 755072 2 0.352 0.543 0.079 15 755081 2 0.374 0.575 0.056 16 755082 2 0.254 0.375 0.201 17 755091 2 0.098 0.298 0.017 18 755092 2 0.188 0.411 0.039 19 755101 2 0.381 0.382 0.311 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 2 0.322 0.430 0.199 21 755111 2 0.289 0.503 0.020 22 755112 2 0.432 0.507 0.193 23 755121 2 0.357 0.587 0.018 24 755122 2 0.310 0.509 0.052 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.311 0.461 0.124 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.098 0.079 MEDIAN 2 0.307 0.464 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.113 0.143 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.098 0.290 0.017 LOWER HINGE 2 0.263 0.383 0.054 UPPER HINGE 2 0.376 0.526 0.190 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.512 0.637 0.311 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.189 0.194 3.621 0.214 -0.032 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.196 0.266 3.153 0.215 -0.022 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.183 0.175 4.350 0.195 0.027 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.175 -0.128 3.492 0.204 0.016 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.192 0.356 3.653 0.211 -0.022 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.205 0.100 3.442 0.225 0.008 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.199 0.346 5.523 0.210 -0.010 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.181 -0.259 3.501 0.216 0.004 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.177 0.196 3.128 0.207 -0.007 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.196 -0.205 2.812 0.235 -0.004 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.169 0.352 3.540 0.191 -0.027 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.182 0.290 3.574 0.208 -0.026 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.215 -0.474 5.001 0.253 -0.020 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.212 -0.058 3.207 0.243 0.002 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.237 0.710 4.187 0.259 -0.001 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.228 0.313 3.539 0.255 0.001 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.171 0.187 3.050 0.202 0.001 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.170 -0.130 3.842 0.191 -0.004 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.227 0.290 5.180 0.261 -0.022 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.219 0.026 3.910 0.255 -0.023 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.167 0.301 3.306 0.185 -0.006 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.188 0.204 3.273 0.215 -0.034 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.164 1.028 6.293 0.168 0.000 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.159 0.389 4.325 0.168 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.192 0.186 3.871 0.216 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.022 0.312 0.859 0.027 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.188 0.200 3.557 0.212 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.035 0.345 0.966 0.041 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.159 -0.474 2.812 0.168 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.173 -0.016 3.290 0.198 -0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.209 0.329 4.256 0.239 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.237 1.028 6.293 0.261 0.027 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.503 0.093 0.006 0.635 4.019 0.289 0.870 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.289 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.870 SERIES 755101 AND 755102 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.622 0.608 0.552 0.384 0.396 0.382 0.418 0.537 0.556 0.493 SDEV 0.000 0.090 0.122 0.156 0.149 0.171 0.171 0.136 0.111 0.135 SERR 0.000 0.052 0.039 0.049 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.009 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.844 0.873 0.885 0.877 0.914 0.923 0.942 0.965 0.968 0.959 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.587 SDEV 0.110 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.972 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.185 0.641 5.233 0.201 0.001 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.020 0.008 0.085 69 373 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.39 1.00 1.04 1.43 106.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.041 0.037 -0.028 -0.028 -0.045 0.003 0.028 -0.029 0.041 PACF 0.001 -0.041 0.037 -0.030 -0.024 -0.049 0.003 0.025 -0.027 0.040 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.001 0.036 -0.031 -0.026 -0.045 0.001 0.028 -0.033 0.043 PACF 0.002 -0.001 0.036 -0.031 -0.026 -0.046 0.003 0.028 -0.031 0.040 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.999 0.202 0.883 5.717 0.172 0.384 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.384 0.266 0.153 0.045 0.004 -0.027 -0.009 0.006 -0.036 -0.001 PACF 0.384 0.139 0.014 -0.055 -0.024 -0.022 0.021 0.021 -0.050 0.019 95% C.L. 0.095 0.108 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.164 0.330 0.140 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES