RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: UT510X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: UT510X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 755 1 Electric Lake DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 755 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2970 3935-11120 1542 1983 755 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 755022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 0.693 0.057 -0.273 3.600 0.078 0.276 2 755012 1760 1983 224 0.720 0.058 -0.106 2.859 0.063 0.487 3 755021 1826 1983 158 0.788 0.065 -1.465 6.562 0.054 0.622 4 755022 1774 1983 210 0.785 0.063 -0.757 4.484 0.058 0.483 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.779 0.071 -0.873 3.275 0.049 0.788 6 755032 1769 1983 215 0.743 0.064 -1.566 6.977 0.050 0.693 7 755041 1762 1983 222 0.783 0.045 -0.499 3.841 0.047 0.453 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.770 0.068 -0.670 2.999 0.049 0.732 9 755051 1759 1983 225 0.690 0.061 -0.347 3.591 0.060 0.582 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.700 0.074 -0.295 2.626 0.066 0.689 11 755061 1864 1983 120 0.777 0.058 -0.826 4.674 0.061 0.384 12 755062 1830 1983 154 0.775 0.079 -0.696 3.102 0.058 0.700 13 755071 1788 1983 196 0.774 0.062 -0.059 2.896 0.062 0.547 14 755072 1774 1983 210 0.819 0.055 -0.605 3.756 0.050 0.558 15 755081 1542 1983 442 0.744 0.096 -0.476 2.555 0.064 0.796 16 755082 1665 1983 319 0.713 0.078 0.386 2.396 0.064 0.726 17 755091 1833 1983 151 0.810 0.049 -0.754 3.312 0.052 0.359 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.800 0.060 -0.393 2.582 0.052 0.619 19 755101 1828 1983 156 0.730 0.054 -0.486 3.956 0.063 0.406 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 0.761 0.048 -0.542 3.377 0.057 0.386 21 755111 1683 1983 301 0.686 0.053 0.056 2.848 0.064 0.470 22 755112 1704 1983 280 0.689 0.089 -0.213 1.954 0.061 0.808 23 755121 1788 1983 196 0.657 0.049 -0.068 2.947 0.076 0.179 24 755122 1778 1983 206 0.657 0.052 -0.586 3.365 0.082 0.155 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1542 TO 1983 442 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.743 0.063 -0.505 3.522 0.060 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.049 0.013 0.436 1.186 0.009 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 208 0.753 0.060 -0.492 3.294 0.061 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.085 0.017 0.482 0.945 0.012 0.300 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.657 0.045 -1.566 1.954 0.047 0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.696 0.053 -0.725 2.854 0.052 0.396 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 0.781 0.070 -0.243 3.798 0.064 0.697 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 0.819 0.096 0.386 6.977 0.082 0.808 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.185 0.201 0.012 -0.217 2.856 -0.483 0.646 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.483 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.646 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR -0.238 0.228 0.238 0.143 0.089 0.172 0.273 0.209 0.289 0.338 SDEV 0.000 0.308 0.245 0.153 0.196 0.252 0.244 0.216 0.220 0.222 SERR 0.000 0.178 0.078 0.048 0.024 0.022 0.021 0.014 0.013 0.013 EPS -1.702 0.568 0.661 0.656 0.614 0.801 0.894 0.863 0.907 0.924 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.256 SDEV 0.235 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.892 NSS 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 0.764 0.056 0.534 3.472 0.044 0.681 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.533 -0.395 0.354 11 431 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.06 0.36 1.01 1.03 1.38 1.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 209. 67. 120. 158. 224. 442. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.680 0.623 0.590 0.570 0.523 0.522 0.458 0.453 0.427 0.435 PACF 0.680 0.300 0.183 0.136 0.040 0.095 -0.042 0.043 0.013 0.071 95% C.L. 0.095 0.132 0.156 0.175 0.191 0.204 0.216 0.224 0.232 0.239 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.547 0.393 0.169 0.139 0.148 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 1 0.14460804 0.05429827 0.00000000 0.68013686 2 755012 1 0.09161840 0.01241408 0.00000000 0.68884212 3 755021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015914 0.77526003 4 755022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011423 0.77179265 5 755031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053453 0.71987724 6 755032 1 0.07834441 0.02630372 0.00000000 0.72907466 7 755041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009119 0.77312011 8 755042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004945 0.77461958 9 755051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048662 0.74476588 10 755052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018710 0.72426313 11 755061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003754 0.77918768 12 755062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00091466 0.70404887 13 755071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049200 0.72577238 14 755072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011210 0.80717295 15 755081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045226 0.84451997 16 755082 1 0.21698375 0.01335112 0.00000000 0.66289771 17 755091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001952 0.81108612 18 755092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011486 0.80939245 19 755101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038972 0.69940692 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000139 0.76099384 21 755111 1 0.14076562 0.00194978 0.00000000 0.57975018 22 755112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087993 0.81305915 23 755121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007562 0.66423392 24 755122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008637 0.66558939 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.073 -0.558 4.136 0.077 0.080 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.074 -0.080 2.763 0.063 0.378 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.082 -1.660 7.458 0.054 0.607 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.081 -0.899 4.969 0.058 0.554 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.084 -0.150 3.210 0.048 0.735 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.083 -1.506 6.948 0.050 0.665 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.057 -0.553 3.813 0.047 0.441 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.089 -0.672 2.994 0.049 0.728 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.076 -0.014 3.451 0.060 0.443 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.103 -0.388 2.711 0.066 0.673 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.074 -0.825 4.661 0.060 0.381 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.087 -0.548 3.797 0.058 0.578 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.071 -0.225 3.336 0.061 0.424 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.067 -0.490 3.587 0.050 0.549 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.103 -0.524 3.448 0.064 0.667 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.080 0.226 3.423 0.064 0.457 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.061 -0.751 3.296 0.051 0.356 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.075 -0.321 2.576 0.051 0.614 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.069 -0.666 4.162 0.062 0.327 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.063 -0.542 3.379 0.056 0.384 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.072 -0.281 3.276 0.064 0.388 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.080 0.375 4.896 0.061 0.429 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.075 -0.066 2.843 0.076 0.170 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.079 -0.607 3.456 0.082 0.148 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.077 -0.488 3.858 0.060 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.011 0.464 1.214 0.009 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.075 -0.533 3.449 0.060 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.010 0.482 0.906 0.012 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.057 -1.660 2.576 0.047 0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.072 -0.669 3.243 0.051 0.380 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.082 -0.187 4.149 0.064 0.610 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.103 0.375 7.458 0.082 0.735 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 755011 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 755012 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 755021 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 755022 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 755031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 755032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 755041 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 755042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 755051 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 755052 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 755061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 755062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 755071 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 755072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 755081 -67 296 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 755082 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 755091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 755092 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 755101 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 755102 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 755111 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 755112 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 755121 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 755122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.072 -0.547 4.151 0.077 0.051 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.069 -0.106 2.674 0.063 0.275 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.065 -0.983 5.790 0.054 0.426 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.062 -0.568 3.852 0.058 0.264 5 755031 1765 1983 219 0.999 0.073 -0.381 3.136 0.048 0.664 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.077 -1.200 6.363 0.050 0.608 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.055 -0.593 4.054 0.047 0.406 8 755042 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.066 -0.578 3.459 0.049 0.518 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.070 -0.034 3.943 0.060 0.352 10 755052 1724 1983 260 0.999 0.086 -0.377 3.229 0.066 0.518 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.065 -1.133 6.906 0.060 0.220 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.076 -0.857 5.937 0.058 0.452 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.062 -0.231 4.090 0.061 0.237 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 -0.708 3.682 0.050 0.332 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.096 -0.527 3.825 0.064 0.620 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.077 0.247 3.674 0.064 0.418 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.865 3.761 0.051 0.313 18 755092 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.060 -0.304 3.063 0.051 0.394 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.065 -0.891 4.961 0.062 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.058 -0.615 3.530 0.056 0.261 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.071 -0.269 3.314 0.064 0.371 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.077 0.464 5.490 0.061 0.382 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.069 -0.220 3.154 0.076 0.044 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.077 -0.569 3.642 0.081 0.104 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.069 -0.494 4.153 0.060 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.010 0.404 1.137 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.069 -0.557 3.793 0.060 0.362 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.015 0.532 1.170 0.012 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.999 0.055 -1.200 2.674 0.047 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.062 -0.782 3.387 0.051 0.251 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.077 -0.250 4.556 0.064 0.439 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.096 0.464 6.906 0.081 0.664 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.231 0.145 0.009 0.244 2.964 -0.112 0.641 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.641 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.204 0.307 0.295 0.155 0.106 0.212 0.269 0.220 0.298 0.350 SDEV 0.000 0.248 0.186 0.175 0.193 0.194 0.228 0.192 0.209 0.206 SERR 0.000 0.143 0.059 0.055 0.024 0.017 0.020 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.457 0.663 0.723 0.678 0.657 0.839 0.893 0.870 0.911 0.928 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.275 SDEV 0.206 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.901 NSS 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.058 -0.669 3.527 0.052 0.322 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.264 -0.166 0.211 82 360 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.33 1.00 1.05 1.38 2.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.321 0.230 0.212 0.196 0.115 0.174 0.099 0.079 0.030 0.041 PACF 0.321 0.142 0.117 0.090 -0.006 0.101 -0.017 0.000 -0.042 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.109 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.145 0.248 0.096 0.100 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.052 0.049 -0.054 -0.012 -0.037 0.120 -0.007 0.012 -0.019 -0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.052 2 0.050 0.046 3 0.052 0.049 -0.059 4 0.052 0.050 -0.059 -0.008 5 0.052 0.048 -0.058 -0.007 -0.030 6 0.055 0.049 -0.050 -0.013 -0.037 0.123 7 0.058 0.048 -0.051 -0.014 -0.036 0.124 -0.018 8 0.058 0.048 -0.051 -0.014 -0.036 0.124 -0.018 -0.003 9 0.058 0.048 -0.050 -0.014 -0.036 0.123 -0.018 -0.002 -0.006 10 0.057 0.048 -0.050 -0.013 -0.036 0.123 -0.018 -0.002 -0.006 -0.010 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2165.36 2166.16 2167.21 2167.65 2169.61 2171.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2166.52 2168.37 2170.37 2172.35 2174.31 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 755011 0 0.003 2 755012 0 0.076 3 755021 0 0.195 4 755022 0 0.073 5 755031 0 0.447 6 755032 0 0.371 7 755041 0 0.165 8 755042 0 0.273 9 755051 0 0.126 10 755052 0 0.270 11 755061 0 0.051 12 755062 0 0.208 13 755071 0 0.056 14 755072 0 0.111 15 755081 0 0.389 16 755082 0 0.177 17 755091 0 0.099 18 755092 0 0.156 19 755101 0 0.059 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 755102 0 0.070 21 755111 0 0.139 22 755112 0 0.161 23 755121 0 0.002 24 755122 0 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.154 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 MEDIAN 0 0.132 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.002 LOWER HINGE 0 0.064 UPPER HINGE 0 0.201 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.447 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 755011 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.072 -0.547 4.151 0.077 0.051 2 755012 1760 1983 224 1.000 0.069 -0.106 2.674 0.063 0.275 3 755021 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.065 -0.983 5.790 0.054 0.426 4 755022 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.062 -0.568 3.852 0.058 0.264 5 755031 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.073 -0.381 3.136 0.048 0.664 6 755032 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.077 -1.200 6.363 0.050 0.608 7 755041 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.055 -0.593 4.054 0.047 0.406 8 755042 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.066 -0.578 3.459 0.049 0.518 9 755051 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.070 -0.034 3.943 0.060 0.352 10 755052 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.086 -0.377 3.229 0.066 0.518 11 755061 1864 1983 120 1.000 0.065 -1.133 6.906 0.060 0.220 12 755062 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.076 -0.857 5.937 0.058 0.452 13 755071 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.062 -0.231 4.090 0.061 0.237 14 755072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 -0.708 3.682 0.050 0.332 15 755081 1542 1983 442 1.000 0.096 -0.527 3.825 0.064 0.620 16 755082 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.077 0.247 3.674 0.064 0.418 17 755091 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.865 3.761 0.051 0.313 18 755092 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.060 -0.304 3.063 0.051 0.394 19 755101 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.065 -0.891 4.961 0.062 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 755102 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.058 -0.615 3.530 0.056 0.261 21 755111 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.071 -0.269 3.314 0.064 0.371 22 755112 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.077 0.464 5.490 0.061 0.382 23 755121 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.069 -0.220 3.154 0.076 0.044 24 755122 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.077 -0.569 3.642 0.081 0.104 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 1.000 0.069 -0.494 4.153 0.060 0.353 STANDARD DEVIATION 68 0.000 0.010 0.404 1.137 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.069 -0.557 3.793 0.060 0.362 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.015 0.532 1.170 0.012 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.055 -1.200 2.674 0.047 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.062 -0.782 3.387 0.051 0.251 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.077 -0.250 4.556 0.064 0.439 MAXIMUM VALUE 442 1.000 0.096 0.464 6.906 0.081 0.664 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.231 0.145 0.009 0.244 2.964 -0.112 0.641 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 755031 AND 755112 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.641 SERIES 755021 AND 755022 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 1. 3. 10. 10. 66. 136. 136. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.204 0.307 0.295 0.155 0.106 0.212 0.269 0.220 0.298 0.350 SDEV 0.000 0.248 0.186 0.175 0.193 0.194 0.228 0.192 0.209 0.206 SERR 0.000 0.143 0.059 0.055 0.024 0.017 0.020 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.457 0.663 0.723 0.678 0.657 0.839 0.893 0.870 0.911 0.928 NSS 3.3 4.4 6.2 11.5 16.2 19.4 22.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 276. RBAR 0.275 SDEV 0.206 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.901 NSS 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.058 -0.670 3.530 0.052 0.322 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.263 -0.166 0.210 81 361 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.32 1.01 1.05 1.37 2.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.321 0.230 0.212 0.196 0.115 0.174 0.099 0.079 0.030 0.041 PACF 0.321 0.142 0.117 0.090 -0.006 0.101 -0.017 0.000 -0.042 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.109 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.145 0.248 0.097 0.100 0.097 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1542 1983 442 1.003 0.058 -0.670 3.530 0.052 0.322 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.321 0.230 0.212 0.196 0.115 0.174 0.099 0.079 0.030 0.041 PACF 0.321 0.142 0.117 0.090 -0.006 0.101 -0.017 0.000 -0.042 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.095 0.104 0.109 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.145 0.248 0.097 0.100 0.097 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES