RUN: WAWY001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: WY023E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: WY023E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 745 1 Sylvan Pass bei Cody WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 745 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2580 4422-11008 1388 1983 745 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 745032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1887 1890 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 745121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 3 GAPS / 1557 1567 / 1906 1906 / 1915 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 745122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1557 1557 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 745131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1891 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 745011 1731 1983 253 0.692 0.244 0.628 2.757 0.211 0.746 2 745012 1696 1983 288 0.579 0.194 0.648 3.264 0.225 0.636 3 745021 1672 1983 312 0.586 0.224 0.228 2.334 0.237 0.743 4 745022 1596 1983 388 0.476 0.174 0.156 2.348 0.235 0.728 5 745031 1493 1983 491 0.262 0.184 1.478 5.302 0.254 0.890 6 745032 1502 1983 482 0.180 0.124 2.358 9.904 0.264 0.856 7 745041 1516 1983 468 0.333 0.151 1.385 5.737 0.235 0.778 8 745042 1536 1983 448 0.313 0.136 1.093 3.987 0.228 0.784 9 745051 1574 1983 410 0.362 0.172 0.312 2.208 0.207 0.853 10 745052 1485 1983 499 0.346 0.154 0.618 2.931 0.242 0.778 11 745061 1604 1983 380 0.683 0.243 0.290 2.895 0.184 0.776 12 745062 1652 1983 332 0.714 0.161 0.266 3.154 0.179 0.500 13 745071 1641 1983 343 0.479 0.172 0.096 3.247 0.262 0.584 14 745072 1683 1983 301 0.593 0.211 0.203 2.353 0.228 0.697 15 745081 1703 1983 281 0.630 0.228 1.240 6.169 0.228 0.673 16 745082 1651 1983 333 0.667 0.258 0.018 2.280 0.237 0.722 17 745091 1722 1983 262 0.395 0.163 0.965 5.120 0.225 0.769 18 745092 1691 1983 293 0.448 0.166 1.220 6.524 0.217 0.705 19 745101 1617 1983 367 0.449 0.170 1.437 5.622 0.200 0.764 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 745102 1528 1983 456 0.318 0.149 1.152 4.140 0.249 0.801 21 745111 1522 1983 462 0.377 0.138 0.449 2.636 0.231 0.719 22 745112 1513 1983 471 0.519 0.164 0.483 3.396 0.220 0.647 23 745121 1395 1983 589 0.264 0.098 1.070 4.700 0.258 0.618 24 745122 1388 1983 596 0.301 0.169 1.587 6.440 0.294 0.800 25 745131 1457 1983 527 0.164 0.081 0.882 3.629 0.261 0.781 26 745132 1554 1983 430 0.323 0.149 1.095 3.698 0.200 0.845 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1388 TO 1983 596 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 402 0.441 0.172 0.822 4.107 0.231 0.738 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.163 0.043 0.577 1.825 0.026 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 399 0.422 0.168 0.765 3.512 0.230 0.755 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 159 0.269 0.046 0.930 2.545 0.032 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 253 0.164 0.081 0.018 2.208 0.179 0.500 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 312 0.318 0.149 0.290 2.757 0.217 0.697 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 471 0.586 0.194 1.220 5.302 0.249 0.784 MAXIMUM VALUE 595 0.714 0.258 2.358 9.904 0.294 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.216 0.271 0.015 -0.102 2.454 -0.475 0.874 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.475 SERIES 745011 AND 745061 253 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.874 SERIES 745131 AND 745132 430 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1440. 1465. 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 21. 55. 66. 78. 105. 120. RBAR 0.783 0.723 0.364 0.137 0.044 0.237 0.310 0.333 0.383 0.305 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.274 0.240 0.369 0.206 0.241 0.298 0.251 0.241 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.158 0.098 0.080 0.028 0.030 0.034 0.024 0.022 EPS 0.886 0.878 0.713 0.540 0.324 0.789 0.857 0.883 0.913 0.893 NSS 2.2 2.8 4.3 7.4 10.4 12.0 13.4 15.1 17.0 19.0 YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 171. 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.348 0.453 0.354 0.358 0.352 0.356 0.326 0.375 0.553 0.472 SDEV 0.350 0.232 0.210 0.185 0.188 0.220 0.246 0.185 0.176 0.215 SERR 0.027 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.010 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.920 0.952 0.933 0.935 0.934 0.935 0.926 0.940 0.970 0.959 NSS 21.6 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 325. RBAR 0.358 SDEV 0.275 SERR 0.015 EPS 0.935 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1388 1983 596 0.397 0.107 1.314 6.767 0.167 0.644 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.451 0.324 0.068 99 497 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.48 1.00 1.05 1.54 26.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 399. 159. 253. 312. 471. 596. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.643 0.575 0.475 0.427 0.390 0.386 0.393 0.401 0.423 0.393 PACF 0.643 0.276 0.054 0.063 0.059 0.090 0.100 0.087 0.106 0.009 95% C.L. 0.082 0.111 0.129 0.140 0.149 0.156 0.162 0.168 0.175 0.181 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.461 0.466 0.276 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 745011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216761 0.41649255 2 745012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043391 0.51625800 3 745021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00123816 0.78024566 4 745022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084409 0.64061856 5 745031 1 0.41546547 0.00484387 0.00000000 0.10366248 6 745032 1 0.49809968 0.02386926 0.00000000 0.13650313 7 745041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019724 0.28708148 8 745042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031782 0.24210989 9 745051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073996 0.51440418 10 745052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006696 0.36253157 11 745061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042070 0.76343226 12 745062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065506 0.82262129 13 745071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076545 0.34711727 14 745072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076500 0.70820600 15 745081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108258 0.47714338 16 745082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111605 0.48064744 17 745091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000928 0.39416161 18 745092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072808 0.34099233 19 745101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054933 0.34791574 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 745102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040619 0.22512512 21 745111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005829 0.36349681 22 745112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010553 0.54411864 23 745121 1 0.24808931 0.00272064 0.00000000 0.14098983 24 745122 1 0.56989241 0.00996483 0.00000000 0.20636293 25 745131 1 0.17732857 0.00501247 0.00000000 0.10152658 26 745132 1 0.39099643 0.01262881 0.00000000 0.25225940 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 745011 1731 1983 253 1.005 0.284 0.615 3.608 0.210 0.544 2 745012 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.328 0.574 3.031 0.224 0.604 3 745021 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.337 0.208 2.826 0.237 0.646 4 745022 1596 1983 388 1.001 0.320 0.115 2.449 0.234 0.604 5 745031 1493 1983 491 0.998 0.635 2.185 9.657 0.253 0.884 6 745032 1502 1983 482 1.001 0.474 1.667 7.717 0.264 0.736 7 745041 1516 1983 468 1.001 0.437 1.078 4.612 0.235 0.762 8 745042 1536 1983 448 1.004 0.401 0.596 2.836 0.228 0.744 9 745051 1574 1983 410 0.986 0.380 0.252 2.460 0.207 0.781 10 745052 1485 1983 499 1.000 0.444 0.641 3.035 0.241 0.776 11 745061 1604 1983 380 0.999 0.348 0.283 2.865 0.183 0.766 12 745062 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.208 0.204 2.794 0.178 0.416 13 745071 1641 1983 343 0.997 0.337 0.345 3.573 0.261 0.510 14 745072 1683 1983 301 0.998 0.328 0.076 2.486 0.228 0.628 15 745081 1703 1983 281 0.999 0.333 1.142 4.973 0.227 0.556 16 745082 1651 1983 333 0.994 0.355 0.160 2.412 0.236 0.649 17 745091 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.413 0.959 5.103 0.225 0.765 18 745092 1691 1983 293 0.998 0.332 0.809 5.069 0.217 0.655 19 745101 1617 1983 367 1.003 0.341 0.786 3.686 0.200 0.722 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 745102 1528 1983 456 1.007 0.440 0.860 3.586 0.249 0.741 21 745111 1522 1983 462 1.000 0.367 0.485 2.707 0.231 0.719 22 745112 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.314 0.459 3.379 0.219 0.639 23 745121 1395 1983 589 1.000 0.288 0.405 3.139 0.257 0.382 24 745122 1388 1983 596 1.000 0.355 0.596 4.014 0.295 0.470 25 745131 1457 1983 527 1.000 0.433 0.989 4.107 0.261 0.704 26 745132 1554 1983 430 0.999 0.360 1.001 3.992 0.200 0.743 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 402 1.000 0.369 0.673 3.851 0.231 0.659 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.004 0.080 0.490 1.664 0.026 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 399 1.000 0.352 0.596 3.476 0.229 0.680 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 159 0.002 0.084 0.676 1.281 0.032 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 253 0.986 0.208 0.076 2.412 0.178 0.382 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 312 0.999 0.328 0.283 2.826 0.217 0.604 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 471 1.001 0.413 0.959 4.107 0.249 0.744 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 1.007 0.635 2.185 9.657 0.295 0.884 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 745011 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 745012 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 745021 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 745022 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 745031 -67 328 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 745032 -67 322 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 745041 -67 313 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 745042 -67 300 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 745051 -67 274 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 745052 -67 334 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 745061 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 745062 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 745071 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 745072 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 745081 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 745082 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 745091 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 745092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 745101 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 745102 -67 305 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 745111 -67 309 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 745112 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 745121 -67 394 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 745122 -67 399 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 745131 -67 353 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 745132 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 745011 1731 1983 253 0.997 0.234 0.095 2.945 0.210 0.385 2 745012 1696 1983 288 0.996 0.308 0.513 3.131 0.224 0.552 3 745021 1672 1983 312 0.995 0.315 0.277 3.312 0.237 0.595 4 745022 1596 1983 388 0.994 0.291 0.097 2.795 0.234 0.528 5 745031 1493 1983 491 0.973 0.527 1.761 7.959 0.253 0.840 6 745032 1502 1983 482 0.993 0.398 1.032 5.413 0.264 0.634 7 745041 1516 1983 468 0.995 0.333 0.535 3.182 0.235 0.618 8 745042 1536 1983 448 0.995 0.307 0.302 2.880 0.228 0.575 9 745051 1574 1983 410 0.991 0.265 0.546 4.047 0.207 0.520 10 745052 1485 1983 499 0.992 0.339 0.720 3.669 0.242 0.589 11 745061 1604 1983 380 0.995 0.250 0.493 3.418 0.183 0.550 12 745062 1652 1983 332 0.999 0.203 0.163 2.768 0.178 0.392 13 745071 1641 1983 343 0.998 0.307 0.509 4.321 0.261 0.342 14 745072 1683 1983 301 0.993 0.253 0.402 3.428 0.227 0.356 15 745081 1703 1983 281 0.996 0.302 1.086 4.591 0.227 0.461 16 745082 1651 1983 333 0.997 0.267 0.758 5.948 0.236 0.215 17 745091 1722 1983 262 0.988 0.302 0.768 4.624 0.225 0.557 18 745092 1691 1983 293 0.997 0.312 0.849 4.587 0.217 0.574 19 745101 1617 1983 367 0.996 0.266 0.808 4.467 0.200 0.535 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 745102 1528 1983 456 0.993 0.310 0.385 3.361 0.249 0.534 21 745111 1522 1983 462 0.992 0.316 0.297 2.791 0.231 0.617 22 745112 1513 1983 471 0.995 0.283 0.349 3.484 0.219 0.560 23 745121 1395 1983 589 0.999 0.284 0.402 3.198 0.257 0.364 24 745122 1388 1983 596 0.999 0.352 0.736 4.783 0.295 0.464 25 745131 1457 1983 527 0.989 0.357 0.663 3.820 0.261 0.595 26 745132 1554 1983 430 0.993 0.285 0.759 3.706 0.200 0.618 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 402 0.994 0.306 0.589 3.947 0.231 0.522 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.005 0.061 0.357 1.172 0.026 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 399 0.995 0.304 0.524 3.576 0.229 0.551 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 159 0.004 0.049 0.410 1.404 0.032 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 253 0.973 0.203 0.095 2.768 0.178 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 312 0.993 0.267 0.349 3.182 0.217 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 471 0.997 0.316 0.759 4.587 0.249 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 0.999 0.527 1.761 7.959 0.295 0.840 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.358 0.129 0.007 0.188 3.195 -0.018 0.752 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.018 SERIES 745031 AND 745092 293 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.752 SERIES 745131 AND 745132 430 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1440. 1465. 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 21. 55. 66. 78. 105. 120. RBAR 0.741 0.756 0.342 0.162 0.082 0.248 0.345 0.349 0.413 0.322 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.305 0.184 0.317 0.198 0.239 0.297 0.197 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.176 0.075 0.069 0.027 0.029 0.034 0.019 0.020 EPS 0.860 0.895 0.693 0.589 0.483 0.799 0.876 0.890 0.923 0.900 NSS 2.2 2.8 4.3 7.4 10.4 12.0 13.4 15.1 17.0 19.0 YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 171. 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.376 0.422 0.361 0.369 0.374 0.377 0.344 0.396 0.573 0.499 SDEV 0.307 0.274 0.196 0.176 0.171 0.198 0.225 0.172 0.149 0.196 SERR 0.023 0.019 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.011 EPS 0.929 0.946 0.935 0.938 0.940 0.940 0.932 0.945 0.972 0.963 NSS 21.6 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 325. RBAR 0.389 SDEV 0.216 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.943 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1388 1983 596 0.980 0.199 0.364 3.198 0.168 0.461 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.265 0.121 0.102 183 413 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.77 1.00 1.09 1.86 128.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.460 0.376 0.239 0.231 0.181 0.189 0.173 0.180 0.168 0.116 PACF 0.460 0.208 0.008 0.085 0.029 0.062 0.044 0.050 0.035 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.082 0.098 0.107 0.111 0.114 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.121 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.249 0.364 0.212 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.510 0.438 0.307 0.299 0.231 0.245 0.239 0.275 0.227 0.180 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.510 2 0.388 0.240 3 0.383 0.232 0.021 4 0.380 0.209 -0.018 0.100 5 0.379 0.209 -0.021 0.095 0.014 6 0.378 0.202 -0.019 0.079 -0.014 0.076 7 0.373 0.203 -0.025 0.080 -0.029 0.049 0.071 8 0.365 0.198 -0.022 0.072 -0.026 0.029 0.034 0.101 9 0.365 0.198 -0.022 0.072 -0.026 0.029 0.034 0.100 0.001 10 0.365 0.202 -0.020 0.073 -0.027 0.031 0.033 0.108 0.015 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 5411.57 5234.00 5200.61 5202.35 5198.32 5200.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 5198.75 5197.71 5193.66 5195.66 5196.74 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.388 0.240 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.28 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 143.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.388 0.390 0.244 0.188 0.132 0.096 0.069 0.050 0.036 0.0259 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0010 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 745011 2 0.173 0.398 -0.028 2 745012 2 0.327 0.492 0.110 3 745021 2 0.405 0.445 0.259 4 745022 2 0.345 0.370 0.300 5 745031 2 0.738 0.566 0.326 6 745032 2 0.472 0.429 0.324 7 745041 2 0.423 0.470 0.241 8 745042 2 0.365 0.460 0.201 9 745051 2 0.290 0.439 0.159 10 745052 2 0.396 0.448 0.241 11 745061 2 0.320 0.464 0.156 12 745062 2 0.161 0.385 0.023 13 745071 2 0.145 0.299 0.149 14 745072 2 0.147 0.314 0.125 15 745081 2 0.223 0.430 0.079 16 745082 2 0.066 0.223 0.001 17 745091 2 0.355 0.426 0.241 18 745092 2 0.366 0.462 0.205 19 745101 2 0.297 0.491 0.087 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 745102 2 0.327 0.409 0.236 21 745111 2 0.411 0.495 0.199 22 745112 2 0.328 0.488 0.131 23 745121 2 0.167 0.294 0.195 24 745122 2 0.260 0.357 0.233 25 745131 2 0.389 0.489 0.186 26 745132 2 0.396 0.559 0.096 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.319 0.427 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.135 0.081 0.093 MEDIAN 2 0.328 0.442 0.190 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.173 0.103 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.066 0.223 -0.028 LOWER HINGE 2 0.223 0.385 0.110 UPPER HINGE 2 0.396 0.488 0.241 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.738 0.566 0.326 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 745011 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.215 0.096 3.711 0.245 0.005 2 745012 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.255 0.499 4.378 0.274 -0.014 3 745021 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.243 -0.040 3.362 0.281 0.003 4 745022 1596 1983 388 1.000 0.235 -0.248 3.755 0.269 -0.011 5 745031 1493 1983 491 1.000 0.270 0.493 5.600 0.293 -0.018 6 745032 1502 1983 482 1.000 0.290 0.596 4.756 0.313 -0.034 7 745041 1516 1983 468 1.000 0.254 0.461 3.237 0.286 -0.022 8 745042 1536 1983 448 1.000 0.246 0.548 3.440 0.278 -0.022 9 745051 1574 1983 410 1.000 0.223 0.295 3.666 0.247 -0.002 10 745052 1485 1983 499 1.000 0.266 0.681 4.901 0.290 -0.030 11 745061 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.206 0.101 3.901 0.227 -0.004 12 745062 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.187 -0.026 2.835 0.215 -0.002 13 745071 1641 1983 343 1.000 0.283 0.398 4.393 0.304 -0.016 14 745072 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.234 0.299 4.131 0.261 -0.008 15 745081 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.266 0.962 4.868 0.272 -0.007 16 745082 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.260 0.610 6.561 0.264 -0.009 17 745091 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.242 0.370 4.570 0.271 0.003 18 745092 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.247 0.249 4.603 0.273 -0.003 19 745101 1617 1983 367 1.000 0.223 0.726 5.458 0.244 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 745102 1528 1983 456 1.000 0.254 0.122 3.252 0.293 0.000 21 745111 1522 1983 462 1.000 0.243 -0.028 3.256 0.283 -0.018 22 745112 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.233 0.248 3.644 0.263 -0.007 23 745121 1395 1983 589 1.000 0.259 0.237 3.228 0.293 0.006 24 745122 1388 1983 596 1.001 0.300 0.125 4.186 0.341 0.004 25 745131 1457 1983 527 1.000 0.280 0.329 3.834 0.312 -0.017 26 745132 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.223 0.430 3.619 0.244 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 402 1.000 0.248 0.328 4.121 0.274 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.000 0.026 0.276 0.871 0.028 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 399 1.000 0.247 0.314 3.867 0.273 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 159 0.000 0.033 0.378 1.163 0.032 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 253 1.000 0.187 -0.248 2.835 0.215 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 312 1.000 0.233 0.122 3.440 0.261 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 471 1.000 0.266 0.499 4.603 0.293 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 1.001 0.300 0.962 6.561 0.341 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.384 0.123 0.007 0.366 3.447 0.070 0.823 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.070 SERIES 745031 AND 745092 293 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.823 SERIES 745011 AND 745012 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.85 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1440. 1465. 1490. 1515. 1540. 1565. 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 21. 55. 66. 78. 105. 120. RBAR 0.713 0.658 0.231 0.120 0.254 0.307 0.379 0.411 0.466 0.444 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.335 0.229 0.204 0.175 0.196 0.184 0.148 0.173 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.193 0.093 0.045 0.024 0.024 0.021 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.843 0.842 0.566 0.501 0.779 0.842 0.891 0.913 0.937 0.938 NSS 2.2 2.8 4.3 7.4 10.4 12.0 13.4 15.1 17.0 19.0 YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 171. 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.327 0.324 0.354 0.392 0.439 0.462 0.415 0.456 0.485 0.458 SDEV 0.265 0.208 0.183 0.177 0.148 0.137 0.153 0.137 0.155 0.188 SERR 0.020 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.913 0.921 0.933 0.944 0.953 0.957 0.949 0.956 0.961 0.956 NSS 21.6 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 325. RBAR 0.439 SDEV 0.168 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.953 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1388 1983 596 0.995 0.171 0.100 3.148 0.198 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.165 0.072 0.102 195 401 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.54 1.00 1.10 1.63 7.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 -0.016 -0.049 0.014 -0.023 0.051 0.018 0.067 0.066 -0.010 PACF -0.063 -0.020 -0.052 0.007 -0.024 0.046 0.025 0.070 0.083 0.004 95% C.L. 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 -0.064 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.051 0.010 -0.020 0.053 0.027 0.074 0.070 -0.006 PACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.051 0.010 -0.020 0.051 0.028 0.072 0.077 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.082 0.083 0.083 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 -0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1388 1983 596 0.995 0.204 0.473 3.387 0.162 0.505 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.504 0.434 0.273 0.246 0.191 0.209 0.185 0.194 0.168 0.111 PACF 0.504 0.241 -0.021 0.061 0.029 0.079 0.035 0.047 0.018 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.082 0.101 0.112 0.117 0.120 0.122 0.125 0.126 0.128 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.301 0.382 0.245 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES