NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information
Issued 14 November 2022
Please note that the values presented in this report are based on preliminary data. They will change when the final data are processed, but will not be replaced on these pages.
National Drought Highlights
- Based on the Palmer Drought Index, severe to extreme drought affected about 27% of the contiguous United States as of the end of October 2022, about the same as last month. About 0% of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories.
- About 44% of the contiguous U.S. fell in the moderate to extreme drought categories (based on the Palmer Drought Index) at the end of October.
- On a broad scale, the 1980s and 1990s were characterized by unusual wetness with short periods of extensive droughts, the 1930s and 1950s were characterized by prolonged periods of extensive droughts with little wetness, and the first two decades of the 2000s saw extensive drought and extensive wetness (moderate to extreme drought graphic, severe to extreme drought graphic).
- A file containing the national monthly percent area severely dry and wet from 1900 to present is available for the severe to extreme and moderate to extreme categories.
- Historical temperature, precipitation, and Palmer drought data from 1895 to present for climate divisions, states, and regions in the contiguous U.S. are available at the Climate Division: Temperature-Precipitation-Drought Data page. These filenames begin with "climdiv".
- According to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), as of November 1, 2022, 62.78% of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) (52.54% of the U.S. including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico) was classified as experiencing moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) drought.
Detailed Drought Overview
A high pressure ridge dominated the atmospheric circulation over western North America for much of October 2022. A trough held sway downstream over eastern North America for most of the month. Pacific weather systems (in the form of upper-level shortwave troughs and closed lows) were mostly deflected to the north by the western ridge, but sometimes they migrated through it with some occasionally becoming cutoff lows that meandered slowly across the southwestern states. With a ridge to the west and a trough to the east, the circulation over central parts of North America was frequently out of the northwest, which directed cold and dry Canadian air masses into the eastern CONUS. The ridge gave the western CONUS a mostly warmer- and drier-than-normal October. Parts of Montana and the southwestern states were wetter than normal due to the migrating Pacific systems and cutoff lows. The northwesterly flow over central North America kept Gulf of Mexico moisture away, resulting in a generally drier-than-normal month for most of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and interior Northeast. The cold Canadian air masses associated with the eastern trough resulted in colder-than-normal monthly temperatures for much of the country east of the Mississippi River and south of the Great Lakes. Clouds and precipitation associated with the cutoff lows gave parts of the Southwest a cooler-than-normal month.
Most of the CONUS was drier than normal for the first three weeks of the month, with October on track at that point to rank in the top ten driest category. A Pacific frontal system during the last half of the month brought beneficial precipitation to parts of the West and southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley, raising the national precipitation rank. October 2022 ended the month as the 22nd driest and 29th warmest October, nationally, in the 1895-2022 record.
Above-normal precipitation in the Northeast, Southwest, a narrow strip from the southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley, and in Hawaii contracted or reduced the intensity of drought or abnormal dryness in those areas. But dry and (in the West) hot weather expanded or intensified drought or abnormal dryness in the Pacific Northwest, central and northern Plains to Mississippi Valley, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf of Mexico Coast to Mid-Atlantic Coast. Drought expansion exceeded contraction with the USDM-based national moderate-to-exceptional drought footprint across the CONUS jumping from 50.9 percent at the end of September to 62.8 percent at the end of October (from 42.7 percent to 52.5 percent for the 50 states and Puerto Rico). According to USDM statistics, 40 percent or more of the CONUS has been in moderate drought or worse for the last 110 weeks. This is a record in the 22-year USDM history. The previous record was 68 consecutive weeks (June 19, 2012 to October 1, 2013). The greatest moderate to exceptional drought area for the CONUS was 65.5 percent on September 25, 2012. However, if abnormal dryness is included, 85.3 percent of the CONUS is experiencing abnormal dryness and drought at the end of October 2022. This is a record — the previous greatest extent of abnormal dryness and drought was 80.8 percent on September 17, 2012.
According to the Palmer Drought Index, which goes back to the beginning of the 20th century, about 44.1 percent of the CONUS was in moderate to extreme drought at the end of October, which is about the same as the end of September. The percent area of the CONUS in moderate to extreme drought has hovered between roughly 35 and 53 percent for the last 26 months (since September 2020).
Numerous drought impacts have occurred with this drought. The impacts include dry soils, low groundwater, dried out ponds, low or dried out streams, low or empty reservoirs (especially in the West), and stressed vegetation. Dozens of large wildfires were burning in the Pacific Northwest, and several in Oklahoma, at the beginning of the month. Precipitation in the Northwest helped reduce the number of large wildfires there, but several were still burning in Oklahoma, at the end of the month. According to the National Interagency Coordination Center, over 59,000 fires have burned over 7 million acres in the U.S. as of October 28. These are more than the 10-year average.
The Mississippi River near Memphis, TN and Vicksburg, MS, is at its lowest water levels in a decade, closing off a vital channel to barge traffic at a crucial time of the year for transport of crops from the nation's heartland. This is due to widespread drought across the Mississippi River basin and its tributaries (the Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and Arkansas-White-Red basins). Drought has persisted for many months in the Arkansas-White-Red and Missouri basins, but has only recently developed or expanded in the Ohio, Tennessee, and Upper Mississippi basins.
Drought conditions at the end of October, as depicted on the November 1, 2022 USDM map, included the following core drought and abnormally dry areas:
- Moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought extended from the West Coast to Rocky Mountains and into the adjacent Great Plains, with large areas of extreme (D3) and pockets of exceptional (D4) drought. Drier-than-normal conditions with unusually hot to record hot temperatures expanded or intensified drought in northern areas of the West, while above-normal precipitation helped contract and reduce the intensity of drought in southern areas (Four Corners states). The percent area of the Western U.S. experiencing moderate to exceptional drought, according to USDM statistics, decreased slightly from 73.9 percent at the end of September to 73.5 percent at the end of October.
- Moderate to exceptional drought continued in the Great Plains, especially in the central and southern portions. Except for an area of above-normal precipitation in the High Plains of Montana, and a strip of normal to above-normal precipitation from western Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley that reduced drought intensity, October was very dry across the Plains and drought expanded or intensified. In the central to northern Plains, the moderate to exceptional drought area climbed from 66.3 percent of the region at the end of September to 76.2 percent of the region at the end of October. In the southern Plains, drought contracted where beneficial rains fell but expanded in other areas. The moderate to exceptional drought area decreased slightly from 75.7 percent at the end of September to 74.5 percent at the end of October. In the Lower Mississippi Valley, dry weather continued during the month, further drying soils and leading to rapid expansion and intensification of drought and abnormal dryness. Moderate to extreme drought skyrocketed from 20.1 percent at the end of September to 89.4 percent at the end of October. Taken together, the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee (South Region) saw moderate to exceptional drought expand from 52.1 percent at the end of September to 78.0 percent at the end of October, largely due to expansion in Tennessee and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
- In the Midwest, drought expanded across much of the area, especially along the Ohio Valley. On balance, the drought area more than doubled, growing from 19.9 percent at the end of September to 48.9 percent at the end of October. The most intense areas of drought were extreme drought in western and southern areas with a touch of exceptional drought in western Iowa.
- Above-normal precipitation during October helped contract drought in the Northeast. The drought area dwindled from 13.0 percent at the end of September to 2.2 percent at the end of October. Pockets of moderate to severe drought lingered from New Jersey to southeast New Hampshire.
- Moderate to severe drought and abnormal dryness expanded in the Southeast, with the drought area ballooning from 5.4 percent at the end of September to 24.9 percent at the end of October. The most severe areas of drought extended from the Florida panhandle to western North Carolina.
- Drought contracted in Hawaii this month. The moderate to exceptional drought area shrank from 81.1 percent at the end of September to 50.4 percent at the end of October.
- In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), compared to last month, a wet October improved moderate drought to abnormal dryness at Lukunor (Federated States of Micronesia), ended moderate drought at Tutuila (American Samoa), and ended abnormal dryness at Ulithi and Yap (FSM). Severe drought continued at Kapingamarangi (FSM) and abnormal dryness developed at Wotje (RMI), while the rest of the region remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.
Palmer Drought Index
The Palmer drought indices measure the balance between moisture demand (evapotranspiration driven by temperature) and moisture supply (precipitation). The Palmer Z Index depicts moisture conditions for the current month, while the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) depict the current month's cumulative moisture conditions integrated over the last several months.
While both the PDSI and PHDI indices show long-term moisture conditions, the PDSI depicts meteorological drought while the PHDI depicts hydrological drought. The PDSI map may show less severe and extensive drought (as well as wet spell conditions) in some parts of the country than the PHDI map because the meteorological conditions that produce drought and wet spell conditions are not as long-lasting as the hydrological impacts.
Used together, the Palmer Z Index and PHDI maps show that short-term drought occurred in the Far West, central Rockies, central to northern Plains and western Great Lakes, Lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Appalachians to Carolina coast, expanding or intensifying long-term drought (PHDI maps for October compared to September). Short-term drought also occurred in parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast, Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes, contracting long-term wet areas and intensifying areas with long-term drought. Short-term wet conditions occurred over parts of the Southwest (Four Corners states) and coastal Northeast, contracting or reducing the intensity of long-term drought.
Standardized Precipitation Index
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) measures moisture supply. The SPI maps here show the spatial extent of anomalously wet and dry areas at time scales ranging from 1 month to 24 months.
The SPI maps illustrate how moisture conditions have varied considerably through time and space over the last two years. Dryness is evident in the central Plains, and parts to most of the northern Plains to western Great Lakes, at all time scales, and parts to most of the southern Plains at all time scales except 1 and 3 months. Parts to most of the Pacific Northwest are dry at the 1- to 3-month and 9- to 24-month time scales. Parts to most of California are dry at all time scales, and the central Rockies are dry at 1- and 9- to 24-month time scales. In fact, most of the West (except Arizona and New Mexico) is dry at the 9- to 24-month time scales. Much of the Mississippi River Basin and its tributaries (especially the Missouri and Ohio basins) is dry at 1 to 6 months, with the Upper Mississippi Basin dry at all time scales. Parts to much of the Gulf of Mexico coast are dry at 1, 2, and 6 to 12 months. The eastern Great Lakes are dry at one month. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast are dry at the 1- to 12-month time scales, with the dryness extending to southern New England by 12 months. Parts of the western Carolinas are dry at all time scales. The pattern at the 24-month time scale has evolved — very dry conditions dominate across the West to Great Plains, while very wet conditions have been dominating the central to eastern Gulf Coast, the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes to Northeast. The October dryness east of the Mississippi Valley has narrowed the wet area to a strip extending from the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Great Lakes.
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
The SPI measures water supply (precipitation), while the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) measures the combination of water supply (precipitation) and water demand (evapotranspiration as computed from temperature). Warmer temperatures tend to increase evapotranspiration, which generally makes droughts more intense.
For the Northern Hemisphere, October is in the middle of climatological fall, which is the season when evapotranspiration is declining. During October 2022, however, temperatures were much above normal across the Northwest, especially during the first 3 weeks of the month, with record warm temperatures. During the last 3 to 4 months, record-hot temperatures were widespread across the Northwest, and well-above-normal temperatures characterized the last 4 months across the West and Great Plains. The last 6 to 12 months had unusual warmth across the West and in the southern states, with some areas record warm. Most of the CONUS was warmer than normal at 12 months. The excessive warmth increased evapotranspiration, especially in the West and Plains during the warm season, but even in the southern states during the cool half of the year. This temperature anomaly pattern resulted in more severe SPEI values than SPI values, especially in the West during the last 5 months (SPEI maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12 months) (SPI maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12 months).
The heat combined with low precipitation to give record or near-record extreme SPEI values for California, Oregon, and Washington during these time periods, while the corresponding SPI values were, in most cases, not record dry or only moderately dry:
- Oregon: driest 4-month SPEI with a corresponding top-20 dry SPI;
- Washington: driest 3-month SPEI with a corresponding top-10 dry SPI;
- Washington: driest 4-month SPEI with a corresponding top-10 dry SPI;
- California: driest 3-month SPEI with a corresponding near-normal SPI;
- California: driest 10-month SPEI with a corresponding (barely) driest SPI.
Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and California all had a top ten warmest and top ten driest November 2021-October 2022 in the 1895-2022 record. And much of the West has been extremely warm during the last several years. This increased evapotranspiration and resulted in more extreme SPEI values than SPI values for Texas at the 1-year time scale and in the West at the 1- to 6-year time scales (SPEI maps for last 12, 15, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 months) (SPI maps for last 12, 15, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 months).
The heat gave near-record extreme SPEI values for California and Oregon during these time periods, while the corresponding SPI values were not as extreme:
- California: third driest 36-month SPEI with a corresponding top 20 dry SPI;
- Oregon: second driest 36-month SPEI with a corresponding top 20 dry SPI;
- Oregon: second driest 60-month SPEI with a corresponding top 20 dry SPI.
Regional Discussion
Western United States
October precipitation was above normal across parts of Montana and the Four Corners states, but below-normal across the rest of the West. A wet-Southwest/dry-Northwest precipitation anomaly pattern extended to the last 2 to 4 months. Earlier in the year, precipitation was above-normal in the Pacific Northwest and below normal in California to the Great Basin. For the year-to-date, the precipitation anomaly pattern evens out with some above-normal areas in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, some below-normal areas in these two regions, and record dryness in California. Previous years have been very dry across the West, with below-normal precipitation anomalies dominating at longer time periods (low-elevation precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate division precipitation rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 months) (gridded precipitation percentile maps for the last 1, 3, 10 months).
Westwide, the mix of precipitation anomalies gave October 2022 a rank of 39th driest in the 1895-2022 record. The year-to-date was the 12th driest January-October, with California's driest year-to-date on record being the anchor that dragged the westwide rank down. The last 12 months ranked as the 24th driest November-October on record. The record warmth in the western and northern areas of the West was compensated a little by near- to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Four Corners states, resulting in the tenth warmest October, westwide, in the 128-year record. The persistent warmth during the last four months gave the Western U.S. the warmest September-October, August-October, July-October, and June-October. The last 12 months ranked as the fifth warmest November-October, with the last eight November-October periods averaging as the warmest such 8-year stretch on record.
The Western U.S. has experienced a strong warming trend over the last 40 years. Persistently hot and dry conditions during previous years resulted in the ninth driest and fourth warmest November-October 24-month period, and fourth driest and third warmest November-October 36-month period.
The percent area of the West (from the Rockies to the West Coast) in moderate to extreme drought (based on the Palmer Drought Index) basically held steady compared to last month, dropping slightly to 52.8 percent at the end of October 2022.
Great Plains
Although precipitation anomalies varied across the Great Plains during the last 12 months, the central and southern Plains have generally seen persistently drier-than-normal conditions; dryness in the northern Plains has been frequent during the last six months (station precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12 months) (climate division precipitation rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 months) (gridded precipitation percentile maps for the last 1, 3, 10 months). Temperatures have been mostly hotter than normal, especially during the last six months (station temperature anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 12 months) (climate division temperature rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 months). Regionwide, the Great Plains has had the following precipitation and temperature ranks during 2022:
- 34th warmest and 51st driest October in the 1895-2022 record;
- Eighth driest and ninth warmest September-October;
- Eleventh driest and second warmest July-October;
- Ninth driest and fourth warmest June-October;
- 16th driest and fourth warmest May-October;
- Tenth driest and 18th warmest January-October; and
- Sixth driest and sixth warmest November-October.
Regionwide, the Great Plains has experienced unusually warm temperatures more often than not during the last 20 years. In the aggregate, temperatures for the last 20 years equal or exceed the heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. June-October periods during the last 20 years have frequently been nearly as dry as the 1930s and 1950s drought years.
Hawaii
October 2022 had a mixed precipitation anomaly pattern across Hawaii. September-October was generally wetter than normal over the central Hawaiian Islands (Molokai to Maui) and drier than normal to the west and east. Drier-than-normal conditions dominated over the last 4 to 10 months. The precipitation anomaly pattern across the state at 12 to 48 months had drier-than-normal conditions dominating over the central islands with a mixed pattern to the west and east. Wetter-than-normal conditions dominated at 60 months (last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month).
Monthly streamflow was mostly near to below normal. Vegetation was stressed on parts of all of the main islands, but especially on Molokai, Maui, Oahu, and leeward parts of the Big Island (satellite analyses of stressed vegetation, drought risk, VHI).
Drought and abnormal dryness contracted this month, with the area of moderate to exceptional drought decreasing from 81.1 percent at the end of September to 50.4 percent on the November 1 USDM map.
Alaska
October 2022 was wetter than normal across most of Alaska, with a few drier-than-normal stations mostly in the Cook Inlet and Northwest Gulf area. This pattern was evident at 2 months with some additional drier-than-normal stations along the north coast. At the 3- to 10-month time scales, drier-than-normal conditions shifted to the eastern interior. Otherwise, wetter-than-normal conditions dominate at all time periods (low elevation station precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (high elevation SNOTEL station precipitation percentile map for the last 6 months) (SNOTEL basin and station precipitation anomaly maps for the last 1 and 6 months) (climate division precipitation rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 10, and 12 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month) (Leaky Bucket model precipitation percentile map).
October temperatures were mostly near to warmer than normal. Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated at longer time scales, when compared to the long-term (1926-2022) average. But when compared to more recent (1991-2020) normals, cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated because of a pronounced warming trend in recent decades (low elevation station temperature anomaly maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 12 months) (climate division temperature rank maps for the last 1, 3, 6, 10, and 12 months) (gridded temperature percentile maps for the last 1, 3, and 10 months) (Leaky Bucket model temperature percentile map).
Winter snowpack was beginning to be established. Some areas were below normal and some above normal, but this is early in the season and snow normals are low (satellite-based estimates of snow depth; SNOTEL station snow water equivalent (SWE) percentile; SNOTEL station and basin percent of normal SWE). Monthly streamflow was mostly near to above normal.
Alaska was free of drought and abnormal dryness on the November 1 USDM map.
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands
October 2022 was mostly wetter than normal across Puerto Rico (PR) and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). Heavy rains from last month's Hurricane Fiona have resulted in above-normal precipitation across PR & the USVI for the last 4 months. Some areas were drier than normal at the 6- to 10-month time scales, but above-normal precipitation still dominated. Drier-than-normal conditions were more widespread at longer time scales (low elevation station precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months) (climate engine model percent of normal precipitation map for the last month: PR and USVI, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region).
Root zone analyses indicated that soil conditions were moist across the USVI and PR except maybe at the deepest layers (root zone soil saturation fraction; relative soil moisture at 0-10 cm [0-4 in], 10-40 cm [4-16 in], 40-100 cm [16-39 in], 100-200 cm [39-79 in] depth). Satellite analyses showed the lack of vegetative stress due to drought (VHI for PR and USVI, drought risk for PR and USVI, stressed vegetation for PR and USVI). Monthly streamflow on PR was near to much above normal across the island. In the USVI, groundwater maintained its elevated level from Fiona's rains on St. John and St. Thomas, and rose even further on St. Croix. The end-of-October groundwater level on St. Thomas remained at pre-drought levels, and was only about 5 feet below land surface at the end of October. The groundwater levels on St. Croix and St. John were still at drought levels compared to recent (last 10 years) history.
PR continued free of drought and abnormal dryness on the November 1 USDM map. In the USVI, at the end of October, St. Thomas continued free of drought and abnormal dryness, while abnormal dryness ended on St. John and moderate drought ended on St. Croix, leaving all of the USVI free of drought and abnormal dryness.
CONUS State Precipitation Ranks
October 2022 was drier than normal across much of the West (except Montana and the Four Corners area), the central and northern Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, Gulf of Mexico Coast, Southeast, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to eastern Great Lakes. Twenty-two states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the 128-year historical record for October, including one in the top ten driest category — Florida (eighth driest) — and two that were close: California and Minnesota, which were both eleventh driest.
August-October 2022 was drier than normal in California and the Pacific Northwest, across most of the Plains to Mississippi Valley, and from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast, with record dryness occurring locally in the central Plains. Twenty states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the 1895-2022 record for August-October, including three in the top ten driest category — Kansas (driest on record), Nebraska (fourth driest), and North Dakota (eighth driest). Five states were close — Iowa and South Dakota (both eleventh driest), Washington (twelfth driest), and Minnesota and Oregon (both 13th driest).
May-October 2022 was drier than normal in parts of the West (especially California), across the Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, from the Tennessee Valley to the Great Lakes, and across much of the Eastern Seaboard. Seventeen states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record for May-October, including two in the top ten driest category — Nebraska (seventh driest) and Iowa (ninth driest).
January-October 2022 was drier than normal across much of the West, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard, with record dryness occurring locally in the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and California. Nineteen states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the 1895-2022 record for January-October, including four in the top ten driest category — California (driest on record), Nebraska (fourth driest), Nevada (eighth driest), and Texas (tenth driest).
November 2021-October 2022 was drier than normal across most of the West and Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, parts of the Great Lakes, and along the Eastern Seaboard. Twenty-five states had a precipitation rank in the driest third of the historical record for November-October, including six in the top ten driest category — California and Nebraska (both fourth driest), Iowa and Kansas (both eighth driest), Texas (ninth driest), and Delaware (tenth driest).
Agricultural Belts
During October 2022, the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat agricultural belt generally was warmer and drier than normal in the north, with near- to wetter-than-normal conditions and near-normal temperatures in the south. The month ranked as the 36th driest and 46th warmest October, regionwide, in the 1895-2022 record.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of November 1, 2022, drought affected approximately 73 percent of barley production, 71 percent of corn production, 68 percent of cotton production, 99 percent of rice production, 82 percent of sorghum production, 71 percent of soybean production, 79 percent of spring wheat production, 74 percent of winter wheat production, 68 percent of hay acreage, 76 percent of the cattle inventory, 54 percent of the milk cow inventory, and 65 percent of the sheep inventory. These values are all greater than they were last month. Based on October 30 USDA statistics, 35 percent of the nation's winter wheat crop and 48 percent of the nation's pasture and rangeland were in poor to very poor condition, and 64 percent of the nation's topsoil and 66 percent of the subsoil were short or very short of moisture (dry or very dry). According to the USDA, the overall U.S. winter wheat condition was the worst it has been in the last 20 years for this early in the season. The table below lists the percent of topsoil or subsoil moisture short or very short, and percent of the winter wheat crop in poor or very poor condition, by state:
U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands
The NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) offices, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), and partners provided reports on conditions across the Pacific Islands.
In the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) (maps — Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Northern Mariana Islands, Marshall Islands [RMI], Republic of Palau, American Samoa, basinwide), October 2022 was drier than normal in southern parts of the FSM. It was near to wetter than normal across the rest of the USAPI.
Monthly precipitation amounts were below the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs (4 inches in the Marianas and Pago Pago, and 8 inches elsewhere) at Kapingamarangi and Nukuoro (FSM), and Wotje (RMI). October precipitation was above the monthly minimums at the rest of the stations across the USAPI. The 4- and 8-inch thresholds are important because, if monthly precipitation falls below the threshold, then water shortages or drought become a concern.
The tropical Pacific climatology can experience extremes in precipitation, from very low precipitation during the dry season to very high precipitation during the wet season. This can result in monthly normal precipitation values that are different from the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs, and this can lead to percent of normal values that seem odd. This was the case during October 2022, which is in the wet season for northern locations in Micronesia and dry season for southern locations. Precipitation was above the monthly minimum but below normal (1981-2010 normal), because the normals are high, at:
- Lukunor: October 2022 precipitation 10.73 inches, October normal mean 11.25 inches, October normal median 11.32 inches
In the table below, the station identified as Koror is Palau International Airport (Airai).
| Station Name | Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | Apr 2022 | May 2022 | Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov- Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk | 112% | 149% | 39% | 39% | 166% | 138% | 176% | 68% | 107% | 70% | 121% | 124% | 106% |
| Guam NAS | 134% | 87% | 146% | 42% | 110% | 187% | 69% | 79% | 135% | 62% | 109% | 150% | 90% |
| Kapingamarangi | 29% | 148% | 94% | 131% | 58% | 66% | 10% | 25% | 61% | 51% | 44% | 34% | 54% |
| Koror | 70% | 155% | 113% | 124% | 156% | 303% | 203% | 81% | 72% | 119% | 45% | 241% | 119% |
| Kosrae | 122% | 160% | 74% | 77% | 216% | 195% | 132% | 139% | 169% | 117% | 134% | 169% | 120% |
| Kwajalein | 128% | 56% | 40% | 244% | 471% | 156% | 196% | 141% | 94% | 132% | 68% | 161% | 128% |
| Lukonor | 145% | 152% | 142% | 58% | 133% | 125% | 88% | 62% | 66% | 32% | 36% | 95% | 80% |
| Majuro | 130% | 77% | 61% | 128% | 298% | 255% | 66% | 71% | 96% | 74% | 159% | 147% | 123% |
| Pago Pago | 124% | 61% | 115% | 150% | 51% | 58% | 96% | 110% | 166% | 121% | 60% | 149% | 90% |
| Pohnpei | 174% | 96% | 76% | 182% | 211% | 157% | 112% | 122% | 173% | 138% | 143% | 148% | 139% |
| Saipan | 138% | 141% | 123% | 63% | 265% | 204% | 76% | 106% | 159% | 80% | 67% | 151% | 116% |
| Yap | 64% | 145% | 150% | 123% | 159% | 254% | 153% | 83% | 110% | 65% | 57% | 217% | 115% |
| Station Name | Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | Apr 2022 | May 2022 | Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov- Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk | 11.89" | 16.79" | 3.93" | 2.86" | 13.83" | 17.19" | 19.87" | 7.93" | 12.86" | 8.98" | 14.15" | 14.27" | 144.55" |
| Guam NAS | 9.87" | 4.47" | 5.84" | 1.28" | 2.28" | 4.74" | 2.35" | 4.88" | 13.71" | 9.15" | 13.74" | 17.12" | 89.43" |
| Kapingamarangi | 2.66" | 14.57" | 8.58" | 12.19" | 6.62" | 8.97" | 1.19" | 3.40" | 8.60" | 4.17" | 4.38" | 2.76" | 78.09" |
| Koror | 7.95" | 17.35" | 11.49" | 10.64" | 11.57" | 22.21" | 24.06" | 14.19" | 13.31" | 16.00" | 5.26" | 28.49" | 182.52" |
| Kosrae | 16.81" | 25.70" | 12.33" | 9.93" | 34.72" | 34.09" | 23.42" | 20.39" | 25.14" | 16.69" | 19.11" | 18.53" | 256.86" |
| Kwajalein | 14.47" | 3.74" | 1.25" | 6.45" | 11.07" | 8.21" | 13.17" | 9.78" | 9.23" | 12.81" | 7.34" | 18.02" | 115.54" |
| Lukonor | 13.20" | 17.10" | 11.94" | 5.16" | 12.28" | 14.14" | 10.27" | 7.19" | 10.52" | 4.55" | 3.70" | 10.73" | 120.78" |
| Majuro | 17.42" | 8.76" | 4.73" | 8.79" | 19.61" | 24.02" | 6.72" | 7.78" | 10.70" | 8.65" | 17.72" | 18.76" | 153.66" |
| Pago Pago | 12.58" | 7.83" | 15.39" | 17.94" | 5.50" | 5.42" | 9.32" | 5.84" | 9.23" | 6.53" | 3.92" | 13.82" | 113.32" |
| Pohnpei | 25.82" | 15.49" | 9.98" | 17.42" | 27.81" | 28.86" | 22.32" | 18.02" | 26.66" | 19.69" | 17.91" | 22.62" | 252.6" |
| Saipan | 7.76" | 5.41" | 3.12" | 1.62" | 5.01" | 5.36" | 1.81" | 3.84" | 14.16" | 10.55" | 6.72" | 16.07" | 81.43" |
| Yap | 5.68" | 12.31" | 9.57" | 6.36" | 7.23" | 14.28" | 12.04" | 10.04" | 16.54" | 9.57" | 7.76" | 26.48" | 137.86" |
| Station Name | Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | Apr 2022 | May 2022 | Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov- Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuuk | 10.61" | 11.25" | 10.10" | 7.25" | 8.32" | 12.47" | 11.30" | 11.66" | 11.98" | 12.86" | 11.71" | 11.51" | 136.77" |
| Guam NAS | 7.38" | 5.11" | 4.01" | 3.03" | 2.07" | 2.53" | 3.40" | 6.18" | 10.14" | 14.74" | 12.66" | 11.44" | 99.09" |
| Kapingamarangi | 9.27" | 9.84" | 9.15" | 9.27" | 11.43" | 13.64" | 12.08" | 13.78" | 14.15" | 8.13" | 9.93" | 8.19" | 145.85" |
| Koror | 11.39" | 11.16" | 10.18" | 8.56" | 7.44" | 7.32" | 11.83" | 17.48" | 18.53" | 13.50" | 11.77" | 11.84" | 152.90" |
| Kosrae | 13.83" | 16.11" | 16.67" | 12.93" | 16.06" | 17.51" | 17.75" | 14.64" | 14.91" | 14.22" | 14.22" | 10.94" | 213.87" |
| Kwajalein | 11.28" | 6.66" | 3.16" | 2.64" | 2.35" | 5.26" | 6.72" | 6.93" | 9.87" | 9.74" | 10.74" | 11.18" | 90.41" |
| Lukonor | 9.08" | 11.27" | 8.41" | 8.93" | 9.26" | 11.31" | 11.69" | 11.65" | 15.93" | 14.04" | 10.15" | 11.32" | 151.36" |
| Majuro | 13.44" | 11.39" | 7.74" | 6.88" | 6.58" | 9.42" | 10.11" | 11.01" | 11.17" | 11.69" | 11.17" | 12.73" | 125.25" |
| Pago Pago | 10.14" | 12.84" | 13.34" | 12.00" | 10.68" | 9.39" | 9.66" | 5.33" | 5.55" | 5.38" | 6.53" | 9.26" | 125.57" |
| Pohnpei | 14.83" | 16.08" | 13.18" | 9.55" | 13.17" | 18.41" | 19.96" | 14.81" | 15.43" | 14.26" | 12.55" | 15.27" | 182.36" |
| Saipan | 5.61" | 3.85" | 2.53" | 2.59" | 1.89" | 2.63" | 2.38" | 3.62" | 8.91" | 13.13" | 10.09" | 10.62" | 70.25" |
| Yap | 8.83" | 8.51" | 6.39" | 5.19" | 4.56" | 5.63" | 7.85" | 12.04" | 15.08" | 14.82" | 13.50" | 12.18" | 120.31" |
As measured by percent of normal precipitation, Kapingamarangi and Lukunor were drier than normal in the short term (October and the last 3 months [August-October]) and long term (year to date [January-October 2022] and last 12 months [November 2021-October 2022]). Guam was wetter than normal for October but drier than normal for the other 3 time periods. Pago Pago was drier than normal in the long-term, and near to wetter than normal in the short-term. Airai, Chuuk, Kosrae, Kwajalein, Majuro, Pohnpei, Saipan, and Yap were near to wetter than normal in the short-term and long-term.
Based on percent of normal average (instead of normal median values), in the Marianas Islands, precipitation during October 2022 was above normal across the main (southern) islands. Half of the stations were drier than normal and half wetter than normal at the 3-month time scale. Wetter-than-normal conditions dominate at the 4- to 12-month, drier-than-normal conditions dominating at longer time scales (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months).
Based on percent of normal average (instead of normal median values), in the Marshall Islands, October was wetter than normal at all reporting stations except in the far northeast (Wotje). Wetter-than-normal conditions dominated at all time scales, except in the northeast and southwest (percent of normal precipitation maps for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months).
![0-10 cm [0-4 in]](/monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2022/10/rsoim0-10_20221031_00z_pr.gif){kind=link}
![10-40 cm [4-16 in]](/monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2022/10/rsoim10-40_20221031_00z_pr.gif){kind=link}
![40-100 cm [16-39 in]](/monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2022/10/rsoim40-100_20221031_00z_pr.gif){kind=link}
![100-200 cm [39-79 in]](/monitoring-content/sotc/drought/2022/10/rsoim100-200_20221031_00z_pr.gif){kind=link}
According to the October 31st USDM produced for the USAPI, severe drought continued on Kapingamarangi, moderate drought ended on Tutuila and improved to abnormal dryness on Lukunor, and abnormal dryness ended on Ulithi and Yap but began on Wotje. The rest of the USAPI stations were free of drought and abnormal dryness.
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Guam issued one Drought Information Statement (DGT) for drought in early October (on October 7) that noted that water levels for both private and public water tanks on Kapingamarangi were around 50% of capacity and crops were stressed from the recent dry weather. Eight 1,500 gallon water tanks were recently shipped to Kapingamarangi that will bolster water resources once they are installed. The reservoir level on Majuro fluctuated up and down with rainfall events, but began the month at 27.0 million gallons of water and ended the month at 26.8 million gallons. The low point of 26.25 million gallons was reached on October 29. This is below the threshold of concern for drought of 28.8 million gallons. Some of the low water level is due to one sector of the reservoir being serviced. This portion of the reservoir system typically holds 8 million gallons, so the 26.25 million gallon level was above the revised 20.8 million gallon level of concern.
Satellite observations of vegetation health (VHI, stressed vegetation, drought stress) on Guam generally indicated no drought concerns.
October 2022 precipitation ranks were mostly in the median to wet side of the historical distribution, with drier ranks in southern FSM, based on data available at the time of this report. Record dryness was still occurring at Kapingamarangi and Lukunor at longer time scales:
- Kapingamarangi: 9th driest October (in a 33-year record), but driest April-October, March-October, February-October, and January-October; 2nd driest rank for May-October, December-October, and November-October.
- Lukunor: 20th driest October (38 years) and driest August-October, July-October, June-October, and May-October.
- Ulithi: 3rd wettest October (39 years), but still the 2nd driest July-October and June-October.
- Wotje: 7th driest October (39 years) and 6th driest August-October.
- Jaluit: 13th wettest October (39 years), but still 7th driest May-October.
- Nukuoro: 10th driest October (40 years).
At the wet end of the scale, Airai and Yap had the wettest October, while Mili ranked wettest for all 12 time periods (from October through November-October).
The following analysis of historical data for the USAPI stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) dataset, augmented with fill-in data from the 1981-2010 Normals, helps put the current data into historical perspective by computing ranks based on the period of record. The table below lists the precipitation ranks for October 2022, May-October 2022 (last 6 months), and November 2021-October 2022 (the last 12 months). Some stations have a long period of record and their dataset is fairly complete, while other stations have a shorter period of record and the dataset has some missing data.
| Station | October 2022 | May-Oct 2022 | Nov 2021-Oct 2022 | Period of Record | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Years | Rank | Years | Rank | Years | ||
| Ailinglapl | ap | 34 | 38 | 34 | 36 | 35 | 36 |
| Airai | 72 | 72 | 61 | 70 | 68 | 70 | 1951-2022 |
| Chuuk | 44 | 72 | 32 | 71 | 40 | 71 | 1951-2022 |
| Fananu | 8 | 8 | -- | 3 | -- | 2 | 2003-2022 |
| Guam | 54 | 66 | 21 | 66 | 22 | 65 | 1957-2022 |
| Jaluit | 27 | 39 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 36 | 1981-2022 |
| Kapingamarangi | 9 | 33 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 21 | 1962-2022 |
| Kosrae | 49 | 54 | 40 | 43 | 30 | 36 | 1954-2022 |
| Kwajalein | 64 | 71 | 56 | 71 | 53 | 70 | 1952-2022 |
| Lukunor | 20 | 38 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 26 | 1981-2022 |
| Majuro | 59 | 69 | 29 | 68 | 57 | 68 | 1954-2022 |
| Mili | 39 | 39 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 34 | 1981-2022 |
| Nukuoro | 10 | 40 | 29 | 38 | 25 | 37 | 1981-2022 |
| Pago Pago | 44 | 57 | 32 | 57 | 13 | 56 | 1966-2022 |
| Pingelap | 38 | 39 | 30 | 37 | 30 | 34 | 1981-2022 |
| Pohnpei | 70 | 72 | 68 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 1951-2022 |
| Saipan | 37 | 42 | 30 | 42 | 28 | 33 | 1981-2022 |
| Ulithi | 37 | 39 | 3 | 37 | 30 | 33 | 1981-2022 |
| Utirik | -- | 18 | -- | 6 | -- | 2 | 1985-2020 |
| Woleai | 33 | 38 | 27 | 29 | 26 | 28 | 1968-2022 |
| Wotje | 7 | 39 | 29 | 38 | 26 | 35 | 1981-2022 |
| Yap | 72 | 72 | 52 | 71 | 53 | 71 | 1951-2022 |
SPI values for seven time periods for Pacific Islands, computed by the Honolulu NWS office.
NOAA Regional Climate Centers
More information, provided by the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and others, can be found below.
Southeast
As noted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, monthly temperatures and monthly precipitation totals were both below average across the Southeast in October. The driest locations were found across the northern half of Florida, where some places received less than half of an inch (12.7 mm) of precipitation for the month (less than 25 percent of normal). Daytona Beach, FL recorded just 0.36 inch (9.1 mm) of precipitation, which is nearly 4.5 inches (114 mm) below average. Gainesville, FL recorded only 0.16 inch (4.1 mm) for the month, while Ocala, FL recorded just 0.04 inch (1 mm) of precipitation, which is the fourth driest October on record (since 1902). While Tallahassee, FL ended a streak of 30 consecutive days without measurable precipitation on the 11th, they recorded just 0.22 inch (5.6 mm) for the month.
Dry conditions were also noteworthy across northern sections of Georgia and South Carolina, where monthly precipitation totals were between 50 and 25 percent of normal, as well as across coastal sections of Georgia and the Carolinas, where several locations recorded less than 1 inch (25 mm) of precipitation. Wilmington, NC recorded just 0.59 inch (14.9 mm) in October, which is over 4 inches (102 mm) below average. Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC, Myrtle Beach, SC, Florence, SC, and New Bern, NC also recorded less than 1 inch (25 mm) of precipitation for the month, which is 3 to 4 inches (76 to 102 mm) below average. Precipitation in October was above average across Puerto Rico, with monthly departures of 5 to 10 inches (127 to 254 mm) across the western part of the island and 1 to 5 inches (25 to 127 mm) across the eastern half of the island. Monthly precipitation totals were variable across the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For the second straight month, drought conditions worsened across the Southeast, particularly across northwest Florida, southern Alabama, and northern Georgia, where severe drought (D2) emerged by the end of October. Moderate drought (D1) also expanded in these areas, as well as across central and northern portions of Alabama and Georgia, the Upstate of South Carolina, and western North Carolina. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions also expanded in these areas and emerged across central and eastern sections of North Carolina. There were a few improvements in isolated parts of Alabama that did receive higher precipitation amounts. By the end October, over half of the region was under some drought designation, while over 20 percent of the region was in either moderate or severe drought. Abnormally dry conditions expanded slightly across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, though most of the region remains drought-free.
South
As explained by the Southern Regional Climate Center, October precipitation was below normal for every state in the Southern region, while the month was cool toward the east and near normal toward the west. The region-wide average precipitation was 2.35 inches, about an inch below normal and ranking 53rd driest overall. The largest statewide average was in Arkansas, but its 3.17 inches was still 1.14 inches below normal. Driest of all was Louisiana, which averaged only 1.33 inches for the month, 3.14 inches below normal and 19th driest on record. A total of seven stations (six in Texas and one in Louisiana) reported no measurable precipitation for the month.
During October, drought conditions generally improved in West and North Texas, southern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas. Conversely, degradations were common in southern and southeastern Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, and the remainder of Arkansas. By October 25, portions of all six states were in at least Severe Drought according to the USDM. Drought conditions in the Southern region and elsewhere led to record low water levels along the Mississippi River, snarling barge traffic. October is typically the time of lowest flows, but the dry late summer led to this fall being exceptional. The gauge at Memphis, Tennessee, bottomed out at -10.81 feet, about a foot below the previous record and corresponding to a flow of 147,000 cubic feet per second. As recently as September 11, the river was 20 feet higher with more than double the flow. By November 1, the situation was only slightly better, with a height of -8.16 feet and a flow of 181,000 cubic feet per second. According to the USDA, spot prices for shipping one ton from St. Louis rose from less than $20 in early September to over $70 during most of October. With low river flows, denser salt water began penetrating inland beneath the surface of the Mississippi River, causing elevated sodium levels in some drinking water supplies in Louisiana.
Midwest
As described by the Midwest Regional Climate Center, the average Midwest temperature during October was 50.8 degrees F (10.4 degrees C), which was 0.6 degrees F (0.4 degrees C) below the 1991-2020 normal. Temperatures were generally above normal in the northwest and below normal in the southeast. October precipitation totaled 1.77 inches (45 mm) for the Midwest, which was 1.33 inches (34 mm) below normal, or 57 percent of normal. Preliminary estimates rank October 2022 as the 11th driest for the Midwest since 1895. All nine states were drier than normal.
Drought conditions intensified throughout October, with over 80 percent of the Midwest abnormally dry or in drought by month's end. Conditions deteriorated rapidly across the lower reaches of the Mississippi River and throughout the Ohio River Valley. Mississippi River levels neared historic lows at Cairo, Illinois and New Madrid, Missouri, severely affecting navigation. Ongoing and intensified drought throughout Iowa resulted in widespread burn bans and reduced hydropower production. Topsoil moisture was rated short to very short on 58-80 percent of land across the lower Midwest, excluding Illinois, which ended the month with soaking rain that helped improve soil moisture conditions compared to neighboring states.
Corn harvest was near or ahead of average for most of the Midwest. Statewide corn yields were within five percent of last year's yields, except in Kentucky, where yields were down 22 percent, and in Minnesota, where yields were up 7 percent. Soybean harvest was ahead of schedule across the region. Soybean yields were 1.5 percent to 9.8 percent below last year's, except in Minnesota, where yields were 6.4 percent above. Winter wheat emergence was significantly slowed across the region due to drought.
Northeast
As summarized by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, while state temperatures and precipitation for October spanned the spectrum, the Northeast as a region tilted slightly warmer and drier than normal. The USDM from October 4 showed less than 1 percent of the Northeast in extreme drought, 3 percent in severe drought, 7 percent in moderate drought, and 16 percent as abnormally dry. During October, coastal areas tended to see above-normal precipitation, allowing drought and abnormal dryness to ease or shrink in coverage in those areas. For instance, extreme drought eased in northeastern Massachusetts, while severe drought was erased in Connecticut and New Jersey. Maine and Rhode Island went from moderate drought in early October to being free of any drought and dryness in late October. However, some interior portions of the Northeast such as central/northern New York and southwestern West Virginia were quite dry during October, causing abnormal dryness to expand or be introduced. The USDM from November 1 showed less than 1 percent of the Northeast in severe drought, 2 percent in moderate drought, and 19 percent as abnormally dry.
Impacts of the drought conditions continued to trickle in during October. In early October, several waterways in Rhode Island could not be stocked with fish due to drought-induced low water levels or harmful algal blooms. Above-normal rainfall during the rest of October in New England, southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey generally allowed streamflow to improve; however, groundwater and reservoir levels did not fully recover in some areas, causing water restrictions to continue. For example, as of October 27, 100 New Hampshire water systems and four municipalities had water restrictions in place, with most being mandatory. Summer water rates remained in effect for a month longer than usual in Ipswich, Massachusetts. Some New Hampshire and Vermont communities began exploring ways to bolster their groundwater supplies in preparation for future droughts. Drought conditions on Long Island, New York, led to fewer crop diseases, meaning higher quality and yields of irrigated crops; however, irrigation was costly, with one grower raising prices by 15 percent to account for some of those costs. Some Rhode Island growers noted their apples were smaller but more flavorful. October rainfall helped brighten fall foliage and extend the foliage season in parts of Rhode Island.
High Plains
As summarized by the High Plains Regional Climate Center, October was a month with flavor of every season, with everything from severe storms to heavy snow across the region. Drought-stricken Kansas was nearly bone-dry, while western Colorado observed above-normal precipitation and up to 22 inches (56 cm) of snow in some places. Temperatures were above normal for much of the region throughout the month. The region was extremely dry this past month, with large portions receiving less than 0.10 inch (2.54 mm) of precipitation. The western parts of Colorado and North Dakota received above-normal precipitation; however, the drought-afflicted areas in the region were bone dry.
Precipitation has been very hard to come by in southwestern Kansas this year, and October did no favors. Dodge City tied their driest month on record, with only trace precipitation. Through the end of October, Dodge City is nearly 9 inches below its normal precipitation. Many locations across Kansas and Nebraska currently rank in the top 10 driest through the end of October. Norfolk, Nebraska, recorded its driest January-October, with this year being over 0.50 inch (12.70 mm) drier than in 2012. In South Dakota, Aberdeen recorded back-to-back top 10 driest months. Only 0.21 inch (5.34 mm) of precipitation has occurred, ranking 2nd driest for September-October. The lack of precipitation and warmer temperatures have led to a rapid expansion of drought conditions in that part of the state.
Drought conditions rapidly expanded this past month, with nearly 76 percent of the region experiencing moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) conditions. The Dakotas observed the largest increase in drought coverage, with both states increasing by over 20 percent. As the year is nearly over, Kansas and Nebraska are in rough shape heading toward winter. In just October alone, Nebraska experienced a 21 percent increase in extreme drought (D3), and Kansas recorded nearly a 13 percent increase in exceptional drought (D4). Both states have large precipitation deficits and will likely not see much improvement over the winter. In the meantime, not only did drought rapidly expanded in the Dakotas, but it also intensified quickly, with both states recording a 25 percent increase in severe drought (D2). Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed.
West
As summarized by the Western Regional Climate Center, October 2022 featured dry and warm conditions across much of the western U.S. Numerous stations in the Pacific Northwest experienced a top 5 hottest October while locations in the Desert Southwest experienced colder-than-normal conditions. Dry conditions persisted everywhere but Arizona, New Mexico, and central Montana as anomalous high pressure remained centered over western North America but moisture and weak low pressure systems were able to undercut this ridge and bring precipitation into the Desert Southwest. Facilitated by notably dry and warm conditions with numerous active wildfires, a week-long heat wave and poor air quality (a "smoke wave") impacted population centers in the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures were well above normal (2-6 degrees Fahrenheit) across the West with the exception of the Desert Southwest, where temperatures were 0-4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Precipitation was well-below normal throughout California as well as western and southern Nevada, with many stations recording zero precipitation. Dry conditions were also widespread in Washington. Central Montana observed above normal precipitation, with Holter Dam measuring 2.84 inches (72 millimeters) of rainfall, which is 1.8 inches above normal (273 percent of normal), tying its fourth wettest October in 118 years. The Desert Southwest saw well-above normal precipitation with the greatest positive anomalies in the southern and central regions. Approximately 95 percent of the western U.S. remains in drought with nearly 20 percent in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought. Drought is most widespread and severe in California, Oregon, Nevada, northern Montana, and eastern New Mexico.
October brought active weather to Alaska, with widespread above-normal temperatures, especially in Southeastern Alaska. Precipitation was near to above normal. Drought conditions remain widespread across the Hawaiian Islands, compared to three months ago, while some minor improvements occurred. The USDM has 82 percent of Hawaii experiencing abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions. Nearly 25 percent of Hawaii is in severe (D2) to exceptional (D4) drought. Honolulu received 0.79 inch (20 millimeters) of rainfall, which is 0.72 inch (18 millimeters) below normal (52% of normal).
Heat and Air Pollution Engulf Pacific Northwest: From October 14-October 21, an amplified ridge of high pressure resulted in well-above average temperatures, with several stations setting October high temperature records. Ongoing drought and hotter- and drier-than-normal weather created favorable fire weather conditions. Numerous wildfires produced plentiful smoke, the dispersion of which was greatly limited by the calm winds and stable atmosphere beneath the ridge. As a result, a period of prolonged hot and polluted air (Air Quality Index values exceeding 400) engulfed many cities in the Pacific Northwest. Impacts from heat and air pollution are difficult to immediately quantify, but it is likely this event will drive an increase in hospitalizations, decrease in general health and well-being (especially among disadvantaged community members), and lowered economic activity in the region.