Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.]
GENS [2.5 Deg.]
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 2.5 degree horizontal resolution.
Cite this dataset when used as a source.
- NCEI DSI 6178
- gov.noaa.ncdc:C00692
C00692
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Order Data |
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Distribution Formats |
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Ordering Instructions | Contact NCEI for other distribution options and instructions. |
Distributor | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
ncei.info@noaa.gov |
Dataset Point of Contact | Customer Engagement Branch
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 1-828-271-4800 ncei.orders@noaa.gov |
Dataset Point of Contact | DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
nomads.ncdc@noaa.gov |
Coverage Description | |
Time Period | 2008-01-01 to 2020-09-23 |
Spatial Bounding Box Coordinates |
N: 90.0
S: -90.0
E: 180.0
W: -180.0
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Spatial Coverage Map |
General Documentation |
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Data Presentation Form | Digital model - multi-dimensional digital representation of a feature, process, etc.
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Dataset Progress Status | Ongoing - data is continually being updated |
Data Update Frequency | Daily |
Purpose | Quantify the amount of uncertainty in mesoscale guidance by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. |
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Theme keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords
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Data Center keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Data Center Keywords
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Place keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Location Keywords
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Project keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Project Keywords
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Data Resolution keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Horizontal Data Resolution Keywords
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Stratum keywords | Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Location Keywords
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Use Constraints | No constraint information available |
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Last Modified: 2023-07-11
For questions about the information on this page, please email: ncei.info@noaa.gov