Every February 2, a crowd of thousands gathers at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await a special forecast from a groundhog named Phil. According to legend, if the 20-pound groundhog emerges and sees his shadow, the U.S. can expect six more weeks of winter weather. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, we can expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.
Even though he’s been forecasting since 1887, Phil’s track record for the entire country isn’t perfect. To determine just how accurate he is, we’ve compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts. On average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time over the past 10 years.
Phil’s Last Forecast
In 2025, Phil forecast “more winter” at Gobbler’s Knob when he saw his shadow and predicted six weeks of winter temperatures. In fact, the contiguous U.S. saw near-average temperatures in February and much-above-average temperatures in March of last year. Phil’s forecast was incorrect.
February 2025
The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February 2025 was 34.8°F—1.0°F above the 20th century average. 2025 was near the median in the 131-year period of record for February.
Temperatures were above average across much of the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast and cooler than average from the Pacific Northwest to the northern and central Plains. Arizona had its second-warmest February on record and New Mexico had its fifth warmest.
March 2025
March 2025 was much warmer than average (sixth warmest) in the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 46.9°F, 5.4°F above the 20th-century average.
Temperatures were above average to much above average across most of the Lower 48, except for parts of California and the Southeast. Kansas recorded its fourth-warmest March on record (tied with 1946), while Nebraska and Texas each saw their fifth warmest. Overall, nineteen states experienced a March average temperature that ranked among their ten warmest on record.
Phil’s First Forecast
In 1887, when he made his debut as the official groundhog forecaster for the country, Phil saw his shadow. His first prediction of six more weeks of winter was accurate for a few regions, but it came up short for several others.
According to the February 1887 Monthly Weather Review, the Northeast, Great Lakes region and West saw temperatures well below normal. The Southeast and Gulf states saw temperatures well above normal during the month. According to the March 1887 Monthly Weather Review, the Northeast, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley and Southeast saw temperatures well below normal. Areas west of the Mississippi River valley saw temperatures above normal.
Predicting the Arrival of Spring Is Difficult
Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country—especially one with such varied regional climates like the U.S.—isn’t easy! Phil’s track record is evidence of that. However, if you’re interested in doing your own analysis for your region, check out our Climate at a Glance tool to access historical U.S. monthly temperature data. More of Phil’s past predictions are also available from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
For an overview of some fun facts about Groundhog Day and the accuracy of the furry forecaster, check out our infographic.
To see the latest climate outlooks, visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For the current weather forecast in your area, check out your local National Weather Service forecast office.
