NOAA Supports Wildfire Science and Response

Smokey Bear, an icon of the U.S. Forest Service, celebrates 80 years of being the face of wildfire prevention. In celebration of Smokey Bear’s 80th birthday and his legacy on wildfire prevention, here we provide some information about wildfires and how NOAA plays a critical role in wildfire-risk detection.

Overview

Wildfires are dangerous, destructive, and can be scary. They burn everything in their path, transforming what were once lush, green forests to black ash, and bright blue skies turn gray or red and dusty. Wildfires can occur anywhere and the U.S. is no stranger to them. On average, the U.S. has close to 69,000 wildfires a year and they burn over seven million acres of U.S. land—about the size of the state of Hawaii. They can occur and spread very quickly, devastating recreational areas, destroying homes, businesses, and infrastructure and, most importantly, severely affecting the safety and well-being of animals and humans. Wildfire smoke can be harmful if inhaled, and it can travel long distances, affecting many people thousands of miles away from where the wildfires are occurring.

The Earth’s climate is warming (Fig. 1) and certain extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and intensely. While wildfires aren’t considered a weather phenomenon, they can be considered an impact of drought (the absence of precipitation over a long period of time) and extreme heat.

Scientists have been studying how a warmer climate is affecting the development of wildfires. They found that, while the rate of the yearly number of wildfires is decreasing for the U.S. (Fig. 2), the fires are getting larger in size, more severe, and destructive across most of the country. To put it in perspective, the U.S. had the highest number of acres burned in 2020 at 10.3 million acres (since records began in 2000); however, the year had a below-average number of wildfires.

There are several contributing factors, including an increase in the duration and intensity of very warm and dry conditions that help decrease the moisture levels in vegetation. This sets the stage for dangerous wildfires to easily develop since dried out vegetation (like a twig that snaps versus a twig that bends) is easier to ignite and becomes the ideal fuel for wildfires. Once a fire is ignited it will continue to burn and spread if not contained quickly.

Climate models are projecting further warming across the globe. The Western U.S., which is especially prone to wildfires, is expected to see a decrease in annual precipitation. This might lead to ongoing conditions that are favorable for the development of large wildfires.

Monitoring Wildfires

NOAA plays a critical role in monitoring the conditions that are conducive to wildfire risk and creates tools and forecasts that help inform whether critical fire weather conditions are occurring or will occur. NOAA’s satellites also detect wildfires, track their growth and containment, and the movement of their smoke.

During a wildfire event, a trained NOAA meteorologist (known as an Incident Meteorologist or IMET) is onsite, constantly looking at weather forecasts and communicating with firefighters and land managers on how local weather conditions can affect the wildfire. This is extremely important to keep firefighters safe as they extinguish the blaze, while giving government agencies the information needed to determine whether certain areas need to be evacuated to keep our communities safe. 

NOAA’s Wildfire Products

Some essential fire products that NOAA updates routinely include:

• The Fire Hazards Map depicts areas that are currently under a fire weather watch or red flag warning. Additional information, such as a description and regional area, can be found when the affected area on the map is clicked on.

• Fire Weather Outlook map (current day, next day, and 3-8 days) depicts areas that have a high risk of wildfire development due to weather and fuel conditions.
• SPOT Forecast is a more site specific forecast, that is based on information given of the fire location (i.e. elevation, aspect, fuel, sheltering of the fire canopy). Once a wildfire starts, fire agencies will put in a request for a SPOT Forecast with NOAAs National Weather Service. 
• The Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product provides a snapshot of smoke and dust associated with active fires across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. A description is provided below the map by clicking on “Smoke Text Product.”
• The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke Prediction shows where the smoke is and predicts where it will travel and its impact on the weather.
• The GSL FV3-Chem model provides comprehensive forecasts of air quality and chemical particles. This model enhances the ability to predict the movement and evolution of pollutants, including ozone, particulate matter, and other trace gases. This product supports public health initiatives and environmental management by offering more accurate and actionable air quality predictions.

What Can I Do?

While lightning strikes can cause wildfires, most wildfires across the U.S. are caused by people. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), between 2014–23, there were over 550,000 fires that were caused by humans, while there were approximately 70,000 fires that were caused by lightning. That means that humans cause about eight times more fires than lightning!

“Only YOU can prevent wildfires” – Smokey Bear

In celebration of Smokey Bear’s 80th birthday and his legacy on wildfire prevention, check out some ways YOU can prevent wildfires by doing a few simple things:

• Be aware of the conditions in your area. Ask yourself:
  • Are the vegetation near you dry? Is your area in drought? View the latest drought map that NOAA, along with partner agencies, produce each week.
  • Is it a windy day? 

If so, perhaps it wouldn’t be a good idea to start a campfire or set fireworks.

• If you start a campfire, never leave it unattended and ensure that it is in an appropriate fire pit.
• When you are done, make sure your campfire is completely extinguished before you leave the area.
• Never play with matches or lighters.

Additional prevention tips are provided by Smokey Bear.